Bitcoin will likely continue pulling back as investors buy the dip. If this happens, it will likely retest the lower side of the flag pattern.

Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 21,200.
• Add a stop-loss at 19,500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 19,500 and a take-profit at 18,500.
• Add a stop-loss at 21,000.

The BTC/USD price dropped below the important support at 20,000 as the US dollar index surged to the highest level in over 20 years. It then pared back some of those losses and is trading at 20,200, which was slightly above this week’s low of 19,500.

US dollar index rallies

The BTC/USD price continued its downward trend and hit its lowest level since July 13 of this year. This price was about 22% below the highest level this month.

This decline happened as the US dollar index surged to the highest level in over 20 years following the extremely hawkish statement by Fed officials. In a statement last week, Jerome Powell said that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming months.

The Fed has already hiked interest rates by 225 basis points this year and analysts expect that the bank will hike by either 0.75% or 0.50% in the coming meeting in September.

Bitcoin’s retreat coincided with that of American shares. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 indices dropped slightly on Monday after they fell by more than 3% on Friday.

The next key catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming US consumer confidence that will come out on Tuesday. This is an important number because consumer spending is the biggest part of the American economy.

Economists expect the data to show that confidence rose slightly in August as consumer and producer inflation eased. Data published this month showed that the headline CPI dropped to 8.7% in July. With gasoline prices easing, there is a likelihood that inflation eased in August too.

The US will also publish the latest house price index (HPI) which is expected to show that prices remained at an elevated level.

BTC/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend after it peaked at over 25,000 this month. As it dropped, the pair formed a bearish flag pattern that is shown in red. It moved below the bearish flag pattern and crossed the important support at 20,722, which was the lowest level in July.

The pair moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the standard pivot point. Therefore, the pair will likely continue pulling back as investors buy the dip. If this happens, it will likely retest the lower side of the flag pattern.

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A move above the resistance point at 1.0070 will invalidate the bearish view.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 0.9950 and a take-profit at 0.9800.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0050.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0030 and a take-profit at 1.0100.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.9950.

The EUR/USD currency pair was hovering at the parity level on Tuesday morning as investors waited for important economic data from Europe and the US. It was trading at 1.000, which was slightly above this month’s low of 0.9902.

US and EU confidence data

The EUR/USD price moved sideways at the parity level as investors reflected on last week’s statement by Jerome Powell and other Fed officials like Neel Kashkari.

Speaking at the Jackson Symposium, Federal Reserve officials reiterated that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming months. This decision mirrored what the officials wrote in the last meeting.

The next key catalyst for the pair will be the important economic data from the United States and Europe. In the morning session, the European Commission will publish the latest consumer and business confidence data.

The numbers are expected to show that sentiment continued to drop in August as challenges rose. For example, consumer confidence is expected to have dropped to -24.9 in August. They also expect that services and industrial sentiment dropped sharply in August.

This happened as the cost of energy and basic items in Europe jumped sharply. Indeed, European leaders are scheduled to meet this week to deliberate on the possible action to cushion their residents as prices rise.

The EUR/USD pair will also be moved by the flash inflation data from Germany, Belgium, and Spain. With gas and electricity prices rising, analysts expect that inflation rose sharply in August. For example, the expectation is that inflation in Spain rose to 10.9% while in Germany it rose to 8.8%.

The pair will also react to the latest US consumer confidence data by Conference Board. Economists expect that confidence improved in August as gasoline prices eased.

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD price moved sideways on Tuesday morning. This price managed to move below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It is also trading at the standard pivot point. At the same time, it has formed what looks like an inverted cup and handle pattern, which is usually a bearish sign. This consolidation can be viewed as the handle section.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will soon have a bearish breakout as sellers target the next psychological level at 0.9800. A move above the resistance point at 1.0070 will invalidate the bearish view.

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The GBP/USD fell to long term lows yesterday, but the trading occurred as a bank holiday was being celebrated in Britain.

The GBP/USD is trading near the 1.17180 mark as of this writing.  For traders who turned their head’s away yesterday and didn’t pay attention, the GBP/USD currency pair fell to a low of nearly 1.16480, thus today’s higher trading value may be considered a potential bright spot. But before traders are tempted to believe the worst is over for the British Pound, they might want to consider the following.

The notion that Great Britain was celebrating its ‘end of summer’ holiday yesterday and banks were officially closed meant that British institutions weren’t actively trading.  The notion that an ‘unprotected’ British Pound was left to the sentiment of international trading houses and sold off with a rather large amount of gusto is troubling. It could be a sign that behavioral sentiment globally views the GBP/USD as still being too highly valued.

GBP/USD Bullish Traders may believe the Forex pair is oversold but should be careful

The last time the GBP/USD traded at yesterday’s lows was during the height of coronavirus fear when the Forex pair went to within sight of the 1.14225 ratio momentarily in March of 2020. Yes, this time is different than the coronavirus experience, but the question if it is a better economic circumstance should be asked. Economic outlooks and central bank interest rate policies remain troubling for Great Britain and its global counterparts. The fact the U.S Fed seems intent on maintaining a hawkish interest rate policy is playing havoc with the GBP/USD too.

• The 1.17000 level should be watched closely, if it falters again short term, this could be a bearish signal.
• Later this week jobs data from the U.S is certain to create more volatility for the GBP/USD, and financial institutions may be positioning now for the statistics that will come on Friday.

Current Support Levels should be monitored for Additional Signals from the GBP/USD

If the 1.17000 were to prove vulnerable again and trading is sustained below this ratio, it would be a troubling signal for the GBP/USD. Yesterday’s move towards extreme lows may not be repeated short term, but it is a reminder that sentiment remains fragile. If current support begins to falter, traders could not be blamed for wagering on marks below the 1.17000 that target 1.16900 for quick hitting results if they are willing to bet on downside price action. Conditions will likely remain choppy in the GBP/USD and its bearish trajectory shows few signs of relenting in the near term.

GBP/USD Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 1.17239

Current Support: 1.17010

High Target: 1.17580

Low Target: 1.16510

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Investors followed the statements of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which he tried to reassure local markets. After significant declines in the price of the local currency, inflation rose after an accommodative monetary policy. 

Today’s recommendation on the USD/TRY

• Risk 0.50%.
• None of yesterday’s buy or sell transactions were activated

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from the 17.98 level
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.74.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

USD/TRY Analysis

The Turkish lira’s trading has stabilized against the US dollar, after minor declines yesterday, when the pair recorded new levels of rise before resuming the decline and stability within a limited trading range.

Investors followed the statements of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which he tried to reassure local markets. After significant declines in the price of the local currency, inflation rose after an accommodative monetary policy. The Turkish president said that his country will be embarrassed with minimal losses from the economic turmoil that the world is going through at the present time. He also stressed that Turkey is making its economic model away from easy money and based on production and job creation.

The Turkish president also set the beginning of next year as a date for the current economic decisions to be reflected on the lives of citizens in the country. He also concluded his speech by describing that the current century will become the century of Turkey, as he described it. Despite the enthusiastic statements of the Turkish president, the real situation shows strong control from the Turkish Central Bank to prevent the fall of the lira’s price, as the bank intervenes directly or indirectly to control it.

 On the technical front, unchanged, the US dollar pair settled against the Turkish lira at its highest levels during 2022. The the pair breached the 18.20 level, trading at the top of the narrow trading range shown on the chart.

The USD/TRY  is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The pair also traded the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 18.08 and 17.98, respectively. It is trading below the resistance levels at 18.20 and 18.33 as well, which are the highest levels of the pair recorded at the end of last year, respectively.

The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the USD/TRY is heading in an overall bullish trend. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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The USD/BRL has produced another round of head scratching trading results, as it finished yesterday near technical lows.

The USD/BRL traded near value last seen in the middle of June as it ended yesterday’s Forex session near the 5.0285 ratio. On the 25^th of August the USD/BRL currency pair found itself trading near the 5.1420 mark, but by Friday the USD/BRL actually started to decline in value. This came on the heels of the central bank policy speeches from the U.S in Jackson Hole which seemingly had little effect on the USD/BRL.

This weekend’s televised debate for President of Brazil also seemed to have little effect on the temperament of investment houses. The prospect of a left leaning political leader taking the realms of Brazil has not flustered the value of the USD/BRL as of yet. The election will be held on the first Sunday of October, and if a majority 50% plus winner is not produced the second round for President will be held the last Sunday of October. Technically the USD/BRL is hovering near very important support.

The 5.0000 Level is within Sight, but Support could prove to be lower

Speculatively the USD/BRL has produced a rather astonishing move lower while many other major currencies paired against the USD struggle to attain value.  The USD/BRL was trading near 5.5100 on the 21^st of July and has incrementally moved lower since then. However, it must be pointed out that on the 10^th of August the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.0400, but then moved higher and touched a ratio of nearly 5.2120 on the 19^th of August. However, the bearish trend is rather startling.

• Today’s opening in the USD/BRL should be monitored. If there is no gap upwards it could be a signal additional selling pressure could be demonstrated.
• If a gap higher is produced on the opening and the USD/BRL is suddenly testing the 5.0350 level, traders may believe it is an opportunity to look for quick hitting moves upwards.

The Strong Trajectory Lower in the USD/BRL Remains Suspicious but the Trend has been Durable

Speculators will have an opportunity to wager on the short term range of the USD/BRL, if it can remain within a calm range.  The opening should be watched for sudden potential gyrations. The USD/BRL continues to look like it has been overbought, but the trend which has been produced technically leaves little to argue, and if the 5.0000 were to prove vulnerable a move towards the 4.9700 level would not be a complete shock. Traders should look for quick hitting trades and have their risk management working today.

Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance:  5.0395

Current Support:  5.0157

High Target: 5.0796

Low Target:  4.9723

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There is no change in my technical view for the performance of the GBP/USD pair. 

• At the beginning of this week’s trading, and despite the holiday in Britain, the price of the GBP/USD currency pair fell to a stronger support level, towards 1.1648, its lowest since the height of the market crash in 2020. It settled around the 1.1700 level at the beginning of trading today, Tuesday.
• The US dollar is still the strongest against everyone with expectations of a strong raise of the US interest rates in the coming months to contain US inflation, which has reached its highest level in 40 years.
• The sterling faces strong expectations of a British economic recession and the uncertainty of the political future in the country to choose a new prime minister.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a stark warning on Friday about the Fed’s determination to fight inflation by raising US interest rates further: it will likely cause pain to Americans in the form of a weak economy and job losses. The message arrived with a heavy blow to Wall Street markets, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1,000 points on the day.

“These are the unfortunate costs of lowering inflation,” said Powell in a high-profile speech at the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole.

Investors had been hoping for a signal from Powell that the Fed may adjust US interest rate hikes soon later this year if inflation shows more signs of abating. But the Fed chief indicated that time may not be soon, and stocks have fallen in response.

Runaway price hikes have left most Americans nervous about the economy, even as the unemployment rate has fallen to a half-century low of 3.5%. It also caused political risks for US President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats in the fall elections, as Republicans decried Biden’s $1.9 trillion financial support package, approved last year, as driving up inflation.

Some on Wall Street expect the US economy to fall into recession later this year or early next, after which they expect the Federal Reserve to reverse itself and cut interest rates. However, a few Federal Reserve officials have opposed this idea. Powell’s comments suggest that the Fed aims to raise the benchmark interest rate – to about 3.75% to 4% by next year – but not so high that the economy falters, hoping growth slows long enough to conquer high inflation.

GBP/USD Forecast:

There is no change in my technical view for the performance of the GBP/USD pair.  The general trend is still bearish and stability below the 1.2000 psychological support motivates the bears to move further down, amid clear ignoring the movement of the technical indicators on the daily chart to oversold levels.

There will be no chance for the sterling to recover for a while without sudden indications from the Bank of England, which is determined to raise interest rates with no fear of economic recession. According to the performance on the daily chart, breaking the resistance 1.2080 is important for the bulls to launch and change the direction, even for a short time.

On the downside, the general trend is the strongest so far, the closest support levels for the currency pair are 1.1640, 1.1580 and 1.1500, respectively. After returning from a British holiday, money supply figures, net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals will be announced. From the United States, the US consumer confidence and the number of job openings will be announced.

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I expect the USD/JPY currency pair to remain within its ascending channel range until the US job numbers are announced by the end of the week. 

A bullish price gap characterized the performance of the price of the USD/JPY at the beginning of this week’s trading. The currency pair moved towards the resistance level 139.00 before settling around the 138.70 level at the time of writing the analysis.

There is an opportunity to move towards the psychological resistance level of 140.00, where the strength factors of the US dollar against everyone are still strong. The US dollar gained strong impetus from the indications and confirmation of the US Federal Reserve governor that the bank is determined to increase US interest rates in a strong and continuous way. The announcement came amid weak bets that the US economy will enter a recession as many had expected before.

Powell said that the size of the Fed’s rate increase at its next meeting in late September – either half or three-quarters of a percentage point – will depend on inflation and jobs data. However, an increase in either size would exceed the traditional Fed-mandated increase by a quarter of a point, which reflects how severe inflation is. The Fed chair said that while the low inflation readings reported for July were “welcome”, adding that “the one-month improvement is much less than what (federal policy makers) will need to see before we can be confident that Inflation is moving down”.

Last Friday, the Fed’s inflation data showed that prices fell 0.1% from June to July. Although prices jumped 6.3% in July from 12 months earlier, that is down from 6.8% year-over-year in June, which was the highest since 1982. The drop largely reflected lower gas prices.

In his Friday speech, Powell noted that the history of high inflation in the 1970s, when the central bank sought to counter high inflation by raising interest rates intermittently, shows that the Fed must remain focused. He added that “the historical record strongly warns against cutting interest rates prematurely,” and that “we must continue to do so until the job is done.”

Of particular concern to Powell and other Fed officials is the potential for inflation to become entrenched, prompting consumers and businesses to change their behavior in ways that perpetuate high prices. If workers, for example, begin to demand higher wages to keep up with higher inflation, many employers will pass on higher labor costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. Many analysts are speculating that Fed officials would like to see lower monthly inflation readings for about six months, like July, before stopping the rate hike.

USD/JPY Forecast:

• I expect the USD/JPY currency pair to remain within its ascending channel range until the US job numbers are announced by the end of the week.
• Amid the continuation of the bullish momentum, I do not rule out testing the 140.00 psychological resistance, the highest for the currency pair in 25 years.
• Including and among the highest of them is the event that you can think of concluding selling deals without risk and waiting for sales to take profits, which may occur at any time.

On the downside, it broke the support 136.00, a first breach of the current ascending channel, and it is not considered a change in direction without breaking the 132.90 level. Today, the US Consumer Confidence and the number of US job vacancies will be announced.

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Gold prices are headed for a fifth monthly decline, the longest stretch in four years, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, weakening the allure of the non-interest-bearing metal. 

Gold prices are headed for a fifth monthly decline, the longest stretch in four years. This happened after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, weakening the allure of the non-interest-bearing metal. The strong dollar also affected gold, which is priced in the US currency. The two-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level since 2007.

“Restoring price stability is likely to require maintaining a restrained political position for some time,” Said the US Federal Reserve Governor Powell Friday, in remarks at the Federal Reserve’s annual policy forum in Jackson Hole, “Historical record warns severely from the policy of premature mitigation,”  he added.

He reiterated that another “unusually large” increase in the benchmark lending rate may be appropriate when officials meet next month. However, he did not commit to one, saying the decision will depend on “the totality of incoming data and changing expectations.”

Commenting on the market performance, John Finney, director of business development at Sydney-based bullion dealer Guardian Gold Australia, said that “This has to be the most hawkish rhetoric from the Fed chair at some time.”

“Although gold is under pressure from the strength of the US dollar at the moment, if we see an increase in volatility in the US stock market, we can expect gold to receive a safe-haven bid,” he added.

Meanwhile, Senator Elizabeth Warren took aim at the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation game plan on Sunday, saying she was concerned the central bank could push the US economy into recession.  The senator remarked that she did not believe an interest rate hike could contain current price pressures.

The DXY US dollar index rose to its highest level in 20 years, making gold priced in US dollars expensive for those holding other currencies.

Matt Simpson, chief market analyst at City Index, said gold’s momentum has shifted to the downside, and while there will be a safe haven influx at some point, investors are currently focused on keeping interest rates high.

Echoing the Fed’s position, ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said central banks must act aggressively to combat inflation, even if it drags their economies into recession. While gold is often considered a safe haven during financial uncertainties, it is highly sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while strengthening the dollar.

Gold Forecast:

According to gold experts. Gold is likely to head towards $1,700 and has room to go to $1,680. You can get some buyers stepping in around $1,680 to support the market and back to $1,750 again. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in Comex gold by 15,910 contracts to 30,326 in the week

Today’s Gold Price Analysis:

The continued strength of the US dollar impedes any efforts and attempts for the gold price to recover. Therefore, it is expected that the downward pressure for the gold price will continue until the announcement of US job numbers, the main driver of the markets. Stronger readings would support the dollar and negatively affect gold and vice versa. Until then, it may test new buying levels, the strongest of which are currently 1716 dollars and 1675 dollars, respectively. Whatever the buying opportunity, we do not advise taking any risks.

On the upside, there will be no real change to the current trend without the gold price testing the psychological resistance level of $1800 an ounce.

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Ethereum has recently been a little bit negative but previously had seen a massive move higher based upon the idea of “The Merge” coming soon, and the idea that Ethereum will become much cheaper as far as transactions are concerned, and a whole host of other features.

• The ETH/USD market rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, getting over 7%.
• However, you need to keep in mind that a 7% gain from here is much smaller than it would have been a couple of weeks ago. It most certainly is quite a bit smaller than it was a year ago.
• The market is likely to continue seeing a lot of noisy behavior, so at this point, I’m not necessarily sold on the idea of Ethereum suddenly taking off.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for Monday, you can see that there’s been a little bit of support in that area, and it’s likely that we could drop down from there to reach the $1000 level. The $1000 level is an area where we have seen a lot of action in the past, and obviously, the $1000 level will have a lot of psychology attached to it. Breaking down below the $1000 level would be extraordinarily negative, and that could open yet another leg lower. Ethereum has recently been a little bit negative but previously had seen a massive move higher based upon the idea of “The Merge” coming soon, and the idea that Ethereum will become much cheaper as far as transactions are concerned, and a whole host of other features.

Bounce not Likely to Last

The reality is that the market has more likely than not already priced this in. Furthermore, you must keep in mind that risk appetite is going to be a major driver of what happens in this market, as well as everything else related to cryptocurrency. I don’t necessarily think that the market is out of the woods yet, and I would fully anticipate that we drop again. However, the question at this point is whether the Ethereum market rallies toward the 50 Day EMA, and then beyond, or if it just starts falling.

A lot of this is going to come down to central-bank behavior, and how hawkish they are. Pay attention to bond markets, because if interest rates continue to rise, that would of course work against risk appetite, and thereby work against Ethereum. Ethereum does seem to be one of the better performers in this financial asset class over the last several weeks.

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Even with the prospect of a big interest rate hike by the European Central Bank in September rising, the euro has struggled as the bloc’s energy crisis increases recession risks. 

Every time the price of the EUR/USD tries to rebound upwards, the negative impact factors remind investors that the euro will remain weak for a longer period of time.

At the beginning of this week’s trading, it tried to bounce upwards, but its gains did not exceed the level of 1.0030 and then returned to stability around the parity price again, before the announcement of the German inflation figures and the American consumer confidence reading.

At the beginning the week, the US dollar rose to the highest level in 20 years against the other major currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that US interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time to reduce rising inflation. Accordingly, the US dollar index DXY, the measure of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, rose to the highest level of 109.48 in two decades.

On the other hand, the euro remained weak near its lowest level in 20 years, even with the tough statements of the European Central Bank, which strengthened the expectations of an interest rate hike in September.

At the end of last week, Powell told the central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Federal Reserve will raise US interest rates as high as needed to restrain growth and will keep them there “for some time” to lower the 2% inflation target, which is more than three times the Fed’s rates.

“Powell’s comments supported pricing a higher rate on federal funds for a longer period of time,” said Kenneth Brooks, a currency analyst at Societe Generale Bank, “the assumption that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in mid-2023 is premature,” he added.

The capital markets responded by intensifying bets for a sharper hike in US interest rates in September, with the probability of a 75 basis point hike currently at around 70%. Accordingly, US Treasury bond yields rose, with two-year bond yields reaching their highest level in 15 years at around 3.49%, which strengthened the US dollar. In his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, European Central Bank Board Member Isabelle Schnabel, French Central Bank President Francois Villeroy de Gallo and Latvia’s Central Bank Governor Martins Kazak all called for strong or important political actions.

Even with the prospect of a big interest rate hike by the European Central Bank in September rising, the euro has struggled as the bloc’s energy crisis increases recession risks. It is expected that the giant Russian energy company Gazprom will stop natural gas supplies to Europe from August 31 to September 2 due to maintenance.

Overall, the EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen significantly in 2022, and although factors such as the US economy and Fed policy have been an important driver of this decline, it is the rising cost of energy supply disruptions that gives most credence to bearish forecasters for some the other markets. Regarding the expected future for the Euro-Dollar, both “Rabobank” and “Nomura” expected a sustained break below the parity price in the Euro/Dollar rate during the coming months.

Expectations of the EUR/USD:

• The general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is still downward and the stability below the parity price supports the bears’ control over the trend for a longer period of time.
• The continued concern about the future of energy in the Eurozone will stimulate the bears to further move down and therefore the appropriate support levels for the currency pair may currently be 0.9920 and 0.9845 and 0.9790 respectively.
• On today’s chart, the current performance pushed the technical indicators towards oversold levels.

On the upside and in the same period of time, breaking the 1.0200 resistance pair of the euro will be an opportunity to break the downward trend. Today the euro will react to the announcement of the German inflation figures and the dollar will react to the announcement of the American consumer confidence reading.

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