The USD/BRL fell to fresh lows on Monday and then demonstrated rather consolidated price action as important support levels came into sight.

When the USD/BRL opens today it could potentially be hit with a sudden burst of activity and traders need to be cautious early in the day. Yesterday’s results saw the USD/BRL currency pair close near the 5.1250 mark and this outcome kept price action within sight of important support levels not sincerely seen since the middle of June.

While the results from Monday are intriguing, today’s outcome could produce equally fascinating speculative opportunities for USD/BRL traders. The USD/BRL has produced a solid amount of bearish price action since the first week of August. A high of nearly 5.3160 was seen on the 3^rd of August. Traders should note that reversals upward have occurred too, this has not been a one way direction.

On the 21^st of July the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.3100 ratio. The bearish price action in the Forex pair has been clear since then, but again pursuit of selling positions has not be a clear path to victory for traders, risk management has been essential to produce solid trading results. Yesterday’s trading which saw the USD/BRL trade lower than its outcome demonstrated on Friday, which saw volatile conditions via a sudden burst higher to nearly 5.2800 and then a strong drop to nearly 5.1500 is noteworthy.

Current Support Ratios Need to be Monitored Closely as Values from June are Tested

The U.S will release key inflation data today and if the Consumer Price Index numbers are stronger than expected this could spur on short term buying of the USD/BRL. Today’s outcome from the U.S CPI numbers will produce sudden fireworks across Forex and the USD/BRL is certain to be effected by the results as financial houses react to the news.

• Support near the 5.1025 level could prove important; if this number proves vulnerable the USD/BRL could see more selling and the 5.0800 ratio become a target.
• If U.S CPI numbers are stronger than expected, the USD/BRL could produce a burst higher and resistance near the 5.1600 to 5.1800 levels should be watched diligently.

Cautious USD/BRL Trading Techniques could be Worthwhile before U.S data is released

The USD/BRL is trading near crucial support levels, but the publication of the U.S economic data will certainly create fast conditions for the USD/BRL based on the outcome.  The USD/BRL has certainly enjoyed a rather solid bearish cycle since the 21^st of July, and today’s inflation data from the U.S may be a key for the currency pair over the near term.

If data meets expectations the USD/BRL may maintain its bearish mode and see support below tested. Traders need to be careful today and cautious traders may want to see the outcome of the U.S inflation data and let the USD/BRL calm down before attempting to pursue positions.

Brazilian Real Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance:  5.1520

Current Support:  5.1049

High Target: 5.2030

Low Target:  5.07800

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The euro is holding up relatively well against the stronger dollar.

My previous EUR/USD signal yesterday was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the price first reached the resistance level which I had identified at $1.0545.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0540.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0457 or $1.0391.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the best approach to this currency pair would probably be to look for a reversal at either of the nearest support or resistance levels on short time frames as I expected the action to be dull.

This was not a good call as the price rose strongly early in the day before falling back.

The price has returned to approximately where it was this time yesterday, again trading between nearby support and resistance levels. This makes it very difficult to take a directional bias.

The best I can say is that the support level at $1.0457 looks strong and likely to hold well, so if the price does fall – and today the US Dollar does seem to be stronger, so it may happen – I think a bullish bounce there on a short time frame could provide a good scalping opportunity.

We may see more movement in the Euro when British CPI (inflation) data is released later.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the EUR or the USD.

Ultimately, this is a market that probably will go sideways over the next two days, before perhaps dropping.

The euro went back and forth on Wednesday as we continue to see markets trying to figure out where to go next. The 50-day EMA is as good of an indicator as any other one, as the markets are trying to figure out whether or not the CPI numbers on Friday will be better or worse than anticipated. Because of this, I suspect that Thursday will also be relatively quiet.

When you look at this chart, you can see I’ve drawn a rising wedge, but it looks like we have just drifted through it, so I don’t know how much credence I can put into this formation. With that in mind, if we do break down then the implied move would be to reach the 1.04 level given enough time. If we break down through there, then the market is likely to go much lower, perhaps reaching to the 1.02 level, and then eventually the 1.00 level over the long run.

On the upside, if the market were to break above the 1.08 level, there is a lot of noise between there and the 1.09 level, so I think it will take quite a bit of effort to break above there. If we do, then it could open up the possibility of a move all the way to the 1.12 level, but there is also the 200-day EMA sitting just below there, so I think you could look at that as a potential problem as well.

The CPI numbers coming out on Friday will almost certainly have a major influence on where we go next, as traders are trying to determine whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to remain extraordinarily hawkish or not. If the numbers come out higher than anticipated, that will almost certainly send this pair lower as people will start to push yields in America much higher again. Furthermore, there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to global growth so that typically favors the US dollar anyway. Ultimately, this is a market that probably will go sideways over the next two days, before perhaps dropping. However, we need to keep an open mind as there is always the opposite scenario that could come into the picture as well.

Until Bitcoin does something, Solana is probably going to sit still. 

Solana did very little on Friday as we continue to see the $101 level as an area that continues to offer support. The $100 level just below there also offers a significant amount of support, so I think this is more or less going to be a “support zone.” If you look at this chart, you can see that the market has gone sideways for a little over a week, and now it looks as if we are going to continue to see this market try to figure out what is going to happen next.

Just above, we have the 50-day EMA near the $108 level and going sideways. At this point, the market looks as if it is simply trying to figure out what to do next, as it has been sideways for a while. If we break down below the $100 level, that would be a negative turn of events, and more likely than not would send the Solana market down to the $80 level. The $80 level has been important multiple times in the past, so I think it would make a nice target, as well as a major support level. If we break that level to the downside, that would be the worst-case scenario for Solana, and would almost certainly send this market to reach the $50 level.

On the upside, if we were to break above the $120 level, then it opens up the possibility that the market could recover. If we can break above the $120 level, then Solana could go looking to the $140 level as a target. Breaking above that market could then send the Solana market to the $160 level.

In general, I think the one thing that you are probably going to see is a lot of volatility and a way of mimicking Bitcoin and Ethereum more than anything else. It is worth noting that we are going to continue to see a lot of chop here, just as we have seen in various crypto markets. Until Bitcoin does something, Solana is probably going to sit still. Even more of a correlation would be Ethereum to this market.

We are still technically in a downtrend, but also look as if we are trying to do everything to make that change.

Litecoin has fallen 1.67% during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to hang about the $110 region. Because of this, I think the market is looking for some type of catalyst to decide which way to go next, and that catalyst will more likely than not be external. After all, Litecoin is a small coin and a small market when it comes to crypto. Because of this, the Litecoin market will have to pay close attention to Bitcoin, and perhaps even Ethereum.

If we can get momentum in the bigger markets, it is likely that Litecoin will continue to see buyers, perhaps using the $100 level as a major support line. The $100 level is an area that has been important multiple times in the past, so I think it only makes sense that a lot of buyers will return if we dipped to that level. That being said, if we were to break down below this level, then it is likely that we could go looking to reach the $75 level underneath, perhaps even the $50 level.

If the market were to turn around and rally, the 50 Day EMA at the $118 level is a major barrier to overcome. If we can break above there, then the market could go looking to reach the $125 level. That is an area that has been important more than once, and therefore I think the resistance will be rather significant. The market breaking above there of course would be a very bullish sign, perhaps opening up the possibility of Litecoin reaching the 200 Day EMA. That is currently at the $143 level, but it would obviously take quite a bit of effort to make that happen.

Furthermore, you would need to see the rest of the crypto markets take off to the upside. At that point, I would anticipate that Bitcoin should be somewhere near the $50,000 level. The $50,000 level is an area in the Bitcoin market that will cause a lot of headlines, and therefore it would make a significant amount of noise. Ultimately, this is a market that looks as if it is trying to make a bit of a bottom in Litecoin, but it still has significant work to do. We are still technically in a downtrend, but also look as if we are trying to do everything to make that change.

XRP/USD has endured lower price action and after slipping again this weekend is testing support levels which are creating speculative opportunities.

XRP/USD is within the lower part of its one month price range.  Having attained a high above 91 cents on the 28^th of March, Ripple now is below 74 cents in rather quick trading. Nervous conditions are driving the broad cryptocurrency market again and XRP/USD is feeling the heat. The current price of Ripple is touching a price it last experienced on the 15^th, this morning’s price action has not calmed XRP/USD, instead it looks like more fuel has been thrown into the trading sphere.

Traders are advised to compare the prices quoted in this report to the actual market. In the past hour XRP/USD and other major cryptos have seen their support levels become fragile. Important values in the lower depths of mid-term price ranges are being tested. If XRP/USD continues to falter and breaks below current depths, it may cause speculators to believe the entire bullish parade upwards which started in the first week of March may be about to end for Ripple.

Ripple is affected by rumblings via its U.S court case which is still being fought with government regulators periodically. XRP/USD is also affected by mechanisms within its banking business which serves as a way to transfer money internationally.  

However, XRP/USD remains a volatile cryptocurrency like all others. Having touched a low of nearly 62 cents on the 24^th of February, the climb created by Ripple which touched late March highs above 91 cent created a significant percentage gain. The problem for traders who remain bullish is that support levels are once again acting like magnets. Hopes that the long term bearish trend within the broad cryptocurrency market may have evaporated is beginning to look like wishful thinking, as trading has remained negative for nearly three full weeks.

Sellers of XRP/USD may be making the logical decision in the near term. Cautious leverage amounts and stop loss ratios should be considered carefully. If XRP/USD is able to break through the 73 cents support level and see its price sustained below this juncture, this would be a negative signal. Even if XRP/USD remains below the 74 cents mark, this could add to nervous sentiment and cause speculators to remain unoptimistic as this week of trading begins. The 72 to 71 cents ratios may prove to capable targets lower sooner rather than later.

Ripple Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.76160

Current Support: 0.73250

High Target: 0.77630

Low Target: 0.71690

On the upside, the target at this point would be to revisit the $200 level.

ZCash has fallen initially during the trading session on Thursday to reach the $159.50 level before turning around and forming a bit of a hammer. The hammer is preceded by a neutral candlestick, which was preceded by a pullback. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to recover after a short-term pullback, which is especially interesting as we had broken higher for a couple of months. This pullback has been healthy, and it looks as if ZCash is ready to turn things around.

The 50 Day EMA and the 200 Day EMA both sit below and offer a certain amount of support. We had recently formed the so-called “golden cross”, which of course is something that longer-term traders will pay attention to for bullish pressure. This market looks as if it is trying to recover right along with the rest of crypto, as it has followed Bitcoin. Bitcoin leads the rest of them, and as Bitcoin is recovering, we have seen several altcoins follow right along, including this one.

If the risk appetite in markets continues to increase, it can help the idea of these smaller crypto markets rally. That being said, if we do get some type of major “risk-off” type of situation, then it is possible that the ZCash market will fall right along with the rest of them. If we break down below the moving averages below, then it would be a very negative turn of events and could open up the possibility of ZCash dropping to the $120 level.

On the upside, the target at this point would be to revisit the $200 level, an area that has a lot of psychological importance, and an area that has pushed ZCash back down from there, suggesting that perhaps the market will try to break through that resistance barrier. There is a shooting star that formed right at that level about two weeks ago, and if we can break above the top of that level, it is likely that the ZCash market will go looking to reach the $250 level. All things being equal, the only thing that will matter is that there is a lot of volatility, so you need to be very cautious about your position size, and then you need to pay attention to the overall attitude of crypto and the US dollar.