I expect the USD/JPY currency pair to remain within its ascending channel range until the US job numbers are announced by the end of the week. 

A bullish price gap characterized the performance of the price of the USD/JPY at the beginning of this week’s trading. The currency pair moved towards the resistance level 139.00 before settling around the 138.70 level at the time of writing the analysis.

There is an opportunity to move towards the psychological resistance level of 140.00, where the strength factors of the US dollar against everyone are still strong. The US dollar gained strong impetus from the indications and confirmation of the US Federal Reserve governor that the bank is determined to increase US interest rates in a strong and continuous way. The announcement came amid weak bets that the US economy will enter a recession as many had expected before.

Powell said that the size of the Fed’s rate increase at its next meeting in late September – either half or three-quarters of a percentage point – will depend on inflation and jobs data. However, an increase in either size would exceed the traditional Fed-mandated increase by a quarter of a point, which reflects how severe inflation is. The Fed chair said that while the low inflation readings reported for July were “welcome”, adding that “the one-month improvement is much less than what (federal policy makers) will need to see before we can be confident that Inflation is moving down”.

Last Friday, the Fed’s inflation data showed that prices fell 0.1% from June to July. Although prices jumped 6.3% in July from 12 months earlier, that is down from 6.8% year-over-year in June, which was the highest since 1982. The drop largely reflected lower gas prices.

In his Friday speech, Powell noted that the history of high inflation in the 1970s, when the central bank sought to counter high inflation by raising interest rates intermittently, shows that the Fed must remain focused. He added that “the historical record strongly warns against cutting interest rates prematurely,” and that “we must continue to do so until the job is done.”

Of particular concern to Powell and other Fed officials is the potential for inflation to become entrenched, prompting consumers and businesses to change their behavior in ways that perpetuate high prices. If workers, for example, begin to demand higher wages to keep up with higher inflation, many employers will pass on higher labor costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. Many analysts are speculating that Fed officials would like to see lower monthly inflation readings for about six months, like July, before stopping the rate hike.

USD/JPY Forecast:

• I expect the USD/JPY currency pair to remain within its ascending channel range until the US job numbers are announced by the end of the week.
• Amid the continuation of the bullish momentum, I do not rule out testing the 140.00 psychological resistance, the highest for the currency pair in 25 years.
• Including and among the highest of them is the event that you can think of concluding selling deals without risk and waiting for sales to take profits, which may occur at any time.

On the downside, it broke the support 136.00, a first breach of the current ascending channel, and it is not considered a change in direction without breaking the 132.90 level. Today, the US Consumer Confidence and the number of US job vacancies will be announced.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The sell trade of the recommendation was activated yesterday, and the deal is still in circulation

Best selling entry points

• Entering a sell position with a pending order from 17.41 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from 17.00 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.88.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.40

The lira continues to decline against the major currencies, especially the dollar. The lira approached its lowest level recorded at the end of last year. This was before the Turkish president intervened with a new program aimed at protecting Turkish lira deposit holders from the local currency’s declines against the dollar. It seems that the impact of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plans did not bear fruit, as the lira continued its decline two months ago, after the stability of the price against the dollar during the months of February and March. The Turkish President’s statements yesterday were the bell for the collapse of the lira, as Erdogan said, “This government will not raise interest rates. On the contrary, we will continue to lower interest rates.” He added that such policies only benefit “those who lead a glamorous life to benefit from high interest “, including foreign investors. After these statements, the dollar broke the levels of 17 pounds and is still continuing to decline

On the technical front, the Turkish currency continued to decline against the dollar, as it broke the 17 levels during yesterday’s trading. 17.00. The lira fell to its lowest level against the dollar, which it recorded at the end of last year. The pair maintained its trading in a general bullish trend, as the pair continued trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 17.00 and 16.80 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.40 and 17.80, respectively. We expect a continuation of the lira’s decline, as each decline in the pair represents an opportunity to buy back. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Gold markets bounced a bit during the session on Tuesday to reach above the $1850 level. This is right in the middle of the recent consolidation area, and therefore it’s not a huge surprise to see this happen. Whether or not this was a reason to get involved is a completely different question, but I think at this point we are more likely than not going to see a lot of back and forth. In other words, we have nowhere to be and that makes quite a bit of sense considering that the markets are waiting on inflation numbers coming out of the United States on Friday. In other words, I think you have more of this ahead.

The 50 Day EMA above will more likely than not cause quite a bit of resistance, followed by the fact that it is sitting at the $1875 level, an area that has been important a couple of times anyway. Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of being patient enough to wait for some type of breakout. That might actually be next week, so gold is a market that I’m not that interested in. If we were to break above the $1880 level, then I think we can look into the $1900 level, followed by the $1920 level. After that, the market could go as high as $2000. The market going that high would take quite a bit of momentum though, so I’m not necessarily holding my breath for that.

If we were to turn around and break down below the lows of last week, then it’s possible that we could go down to the $1800 level. $1800 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course, an area where we have seen action in the past. It’s also worth noting that the market will be approaching a two-year uptrend line in that general vicinity as well, so I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we find buyers on any type of breakdown. After all, there are a lot of concerns when it comes to safety other, and then it does help gold overall. But the US dollar can work against it at times as well, and I think we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior more than anything else.

Expect a lot of chop and keep your position size small, as it is paramount in these times.

The FTSE 100 rallied again on Tuesday but looks as if it is going to have quite a challenge ahead of it. The 7500 level begins a significant resistance barrier that extends past the 7600 level, so it is likely that we will see sellers come into this market given enough time. After all, the market has bounced rather drastically from the 7200 level, but it is also worth noting that equities across the planet are all over the place. With volatility levels as high as they are, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where owning stocks will be the easy way going forward. I do believe that it is more likely than not going to be a situation where we will have a washout coming.

With that being said, the 7600 level is an area that you need to pay close attention to because it is so heavily defended. If we were to break through to a fresh, new high, then it is possible that the FTSE 100 really starts to take off. There are a lot of traders out there willing to bet that the central banks will be much looser with their monetary policy than they have been suggesting, but that is a pipe dream as inflation has gotten so out of control that it is difficult to imagine a scenario where central banks can do anything but fight it.

The lack of global growth will weigh upon the markets as well, so that is most certainly something that you need to pay close attention to, as there are major headwinds facing most developed economies around the world. The market will be noisy, to say the least, and I do think that there is still going to be a significant amount of support near the 7200 level underneath. Because of this, it is more likely than not that we will see a selloff. At the first signs of exhaustion, I am perfectly comfortable shorting this market because we have such an obvious barrier above that if we were to break it, it would more likely than not have a lot of money flowing into the market and you could probably make your losses back. Regardless, expect a lot of chop and keep your position size small, as it is paramount in these times.

The question now is more or less whether or not the 14.50 Rand level is going to offer a bigger “floor in the market?

The US dollar has had an explosive trading session on Tuesday to break above the 50 Day EMA. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to reach the 15 Rand level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The market breaking above the 50 Day EMA is a good sign, but now we have to keep in mind not only the large, round, psychologically significant figure but also the 200 Day EMA that sits just above there.

The market breaking above the 200 Day EMA would be a very bullish sign, and at this point in time is likely that we would continue to go much higher. The 15.50 level would be the next target, as it has offered resistance previously. At this point, I think the market is going to try to go higher, especially if we continue to see a lot of concern around the world. After all, that does tend to have money flowing into the US dollar more than anything else, as emerging market currencies are shunned.

The South African Rand is also highly levered to commodities, which got absolutely crushed during the trading session on Tuesday. The 15 Rand level could offer a significant amount of resistance, and now that we are between the 50 Day EMA and the 200 Day EMA, which is typically an area that causes a bit of volatility when you enter in. After that, you see a certain amount of impulsivity come into the market under most circumstances, and that is something that I will be following. The question now is more or less whether or not the 14.50 Rand level is going to offer a bigger “floor in the market?

If we were to break down below the 14.40 Rand level, the market is more likely than not to continue to go lower, perhaps reaching the 14 Rand level. The longer-term trend has been negative for a while, as both moving averages have been dropping, and of course the 50 Day EMA has broken below the 200 Day EMA, causing a certain amount of negativity due to the fact that it is the well-known “death cross signal” that a lot of longer-term traders will pay close attention to. This pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so always keep that in mind as well.

The market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately it looks as if we are trying to build up enough momentum to finally break out of this short-term range

The New Zealand dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday again, as we continue to consolidate below the 0.70 level to show signs of building pressure, but not quite enough momentum to continue going higher. Because of this, it looks as if the New Zealand dollar is currently “stuck” between the crucial big figure, and the 200 Day EMA, currently sitting at the 0.6875 level.

The New Zealand dollar is especially interesting, due to the fact that the market has a high correlation to certain agricultural items. Anybody who has been watching the futures markets understand that grains have done quite well, and this has had a bit of a “knock-on effect” on the New Zealand dollar. As agricultural commodities continue to find plenty of momentum, the New Zealand dollar could do so as well. However, we need to break above the 0.70 level to get any real momentum going, as it is a psychological and structural barrier.

If we were to break down below the 200 Day EMA, it is possible that we could break down even further, but it is worth noting that the 50 Day EMA is at the 0.6827 handle and moving higher. If we were to break through all of that, then I anticipate that the next move would be to reach down to the 0.6750 level.

On the upside, if we were to break above the 0.70 level, it opens up fresh buying, perhaps sending the market to the 0.71 handle, perhaps even the 0.7250 level above there, as we have seen in the past. The market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately it looks as if we are trying to build up enough momentum to finally break out of this short-term range that we are currently stuck in. The market breaking out of this area is ready to make a bigger move, but at this point we are killing time, perhaps trying to figure out who will win. I think this is a market that is most certainly worth paying attention to, because we are about to see a huge move in one direction or the other, depending on where the next impulsive candlestick points us. It looks as if we are building the inertia necessary for the next leg higher, or a pullback.

Expect noisy behavior, but we could get an explosive move to the upside on a breakout.

Solana broke higher on Friday to reach the crucial 200-day EMA. This is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, so it should not be a huge surprise that we have stopped right at this level. The market has seen a big move as we have sliced through the 50-day EMA, which is a good sign as well. In general, this is a market that I think will continue to see an attempt to break out, but it will also follow Bitcoin.

Looking at this chart, it does look like we are trying to follow Bitcoin, as it broke out during the same session. Because of this, the market has shown itself to be attempting to rise right along with the rest of crypto as well, because we have also seen the Ethereum market take off. In general, crypto seems to be picking up momentum, and Solana is one of the favored “altcoins” for crypto traders. The market was doing quite well before everything started selling off.

The size of the candlestick for the day does suggest that we are going to continue to see buyers, so it is worth noting that the crypto markets gave up as much as 70% in some of the big markets, so there almost certainly has to be a certain amount of value hunting in this area. The market pulling back at this point could open up an attempt to break the $98 level, which opens up the possibility of a move towards the $80 level.

It also looks as if we are trying to form some type of basing pattern, and we could see this market break higher above the $120 level, and the “measured move” could have this market going as high as $160 over the next several weeks. This needs a bit of a boost from Bitcoin and Ethereum both, so they need to be bullish in order to have Solana get bullish as well. Overall, it is worth noting that we have a situation where momentum chasers will almost certainly be flocking to this market if we see the same behavior in other crypto coins. Expect noisy behavior, but we could get an explosive move to the upside on a breakout.