We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially if the pair closed above the resistance levels of 14.91.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%

None of the buy or sell trades of the recommendation were activated yesterday

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.68 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support level 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.99 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

The Turkish lira swallowed up yesterday’s gains, as the lira rose after the interest rate decision in the United States of America, which rose 50 basis points. All financial assets benefited from the dollar’s decline after the interest rate decision as the Fed’s decision was priced earlier. During today’s trading, the lira fell after the Turkish Statistical Institute revealed in a report that annual inflation in Turkey rose by 69.97% in April. This number represents an increase from March when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 61.14% year over year. The biggest jump was recorded in transportation prices, with prices jumping insanely by 105.86% year on year, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages with 89.10%. The smallest inflation rate was observed in telecoms at 18.71%. The Consumer Price Index increased by 7.25% compared to the previous month.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell slightly against the dollar during today’s trading, as the lira swallowed up yesterday’s gains. In general, the lira is still trading within a limited trading range. The pair also rose above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.75 and 14.69 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.90 and 14.99. We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially if the pair closed above the resistance levels of 14.91. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

As the month of April gets ready to start, a shift in sentiment may be starting to gain momentum as Bitcoin tests crucial resistance levels.

BTC/USD is trading above the 47,400.00 mark as of this writing and is challenging value it has not experienced in a sustained manner since the end of December 2021.  Bitcoin has certainly suffered from a long bearish trend and on the 7^th of March BTC/USD was trading near 36,950.00. On the 13^th of March, BTC/USD touched the 37,500.00 mark as it sunk to this value after hitting the 42,415.00 level on the 9^th of March.

It also needs to be noted on the 2^nd of March BTC/USD raced to a high of nearly 45,100.00 before stumbling.  Skeptical traders of the positive price action in BTC/USD achieved since the 13^th of March, may look at the value of Bitcoin currently and remain unconvinced that it will continue to climb higher. Speculative bears may try to search for reversals lower based on the notion BTC/USD is not fully free from the clutches of its long term bearish trend quite yet.

However, the recent price action demonstrated in BTC/USD and other major cryptocurrencies are beginning to look like a shift in sentiment is underway. Certainly traders have had a right to be nervous and pursue downward price action the past five months of trading, but betting against the developing trend upwards may prove to be a costly experience. Technical traders who have experience in BTC/USD probably have battle scars they have suffered on occasion when speculating on Bitcoin as its trends, trying to find lows and highs. Catching the beginning of trend is not easy, but in reality it doesn’t always matter either.

If the current change of direction in BTC/USD is able to sustain, and the price of the world’s most famous digital asset holds its price near term above the 47,000.00 juncture, this may create calm among speculators.  The trend may continue higher. After a two week move upwards it would actually be good to see BTC/USD consolidate perhaps at its current levels. Intriguingly BTC/USD has seen very few violent spikes upwards as it has begun to make resistance look vulnerable. On the 27^th of March BTC/USD did jump quickly to the 46,800.00 vicinity after it was able to puncture resistance near 45.500.00, but the move was not earth shattering.

BTC/USD Outlook for April:

Speculative price range for BTC/USD is 38,650.00 to 55,800.00.

Traders looking for downside momentum to re-emerge should be careful.  If BTC/USD were to suddenly sink below the 46,000.00 mark and then re-test the 45,000.00 to 44,000.00 levels this may be concerning for speculators betting on upside. However as long as BTC/USD can prove it can maintain prices above the 43,000.00 juncture this may be interpreted positively. Any move below 42,000.00 may spark nervous sentiment again and bearish traders may believe the 39,900.00 could become a target once again. Certainly, if BTC/USD were to suddenly break below its mid- March prices of 38,000.00, this would be a troubling indicator.

The recently ability of BTC/USD to incrementally move higher and come within sight of important resistance is important.  If speculative sentiment continues to turn bullish, BTC/USD could easily begin to challenge the 48,500.00 to 49,500.00 values. If BTC/USD were to push through 50,000.00 this could trigger additional bets on higher momentum. If BTC/USD is able to break above the 53,000.00 level and actually topple December 2021 highs, speculative traders may believe November prices may begin to be flirted with sooner rather than later. However, traders need to keep a perspective regarding their timeframes and ambitions. There is a vast difference between day trading, and being able to hold onto a position for a few weeks. Traders need to understand the tactics they must use to avoid high transaction fees is a key element to achieve success.

ADA/USD is ready to begin April’s trading within sight of prices not seen for nearly two months, but Cardano still remains in a technically suspicious range.

ADA/USD is trading near the 1.19000000 mark as of this writing and the month of April approaches.  On the 13^th of March Cardano was trading near important long term lows around the 75 cents level. However as the broad cryptocurrency market has turned higher, ADA/USD has followed in step and made short term resistance appear vulnerable. The current price of Cardano is now near values seen in the middle of January and the first week of February.

ADA/USD achieved its record highs in early September of 2021 when it traded above the 3.00000000 ratio.  Cardano remains seemingly miles away from these apex highs and if a trader has a long term technical approach, ADA/USD can be perceived very easily to still be within the lower part of its long term price range. The question for speculators is if the nervous sentiment which created a very strong bearish trend is finally shifting.

The ability of ADA/USD to incrementally rise in the last two weeks of March is intriguing.  When ADA/USD was able to puncture the 1.00000000 mark on the 22^nd of March it did see more bullish momentum gather as buying was triggered. A positive technical indication in the near term has been the ability of Cardano to sustain this upward move, and not suffer a sudden wave of violent profit taking. This may indicate traders of ADA/USD believe additional upside could transpire.

The current price levels of Cardano are important as it flirts with important mid-term resistance. If ADA/USD is able to break above the 1.25000000 level and show it has the stamina to sustain this ratio, it could spark additional positive sentiment the cryptocurrency. Certainly Cardano has moved nearly in step for step motion with the broad digital asset market, but if it can break above mid-term resistance and begin to challenge prices from the middle of January this would be a dynamic sign that sentiment is speculative and bullish.

Cardano Outlook for April:

Speculative price range for ADA/USD is 0.790000 to 1.570000.

Current support levels for ADA/USD should be monitored. If the 1.10000000 begins to be tested this may be a slightly negative sign. If the 1.08000000 were to suddenly be seen and further erosion were displayed, this could cause some recent speculative buyers to simply cash in existing profits. If the 1.00000000 were to be tested, this would certainly be negative. It will be important for ADA/USD to maintain values above the 0.9300000 junctures, if these cannot be held this would indicate selling pressure is mounting again for Cardano.

ADA/USD remains within an important testing ground. Even as Cardano’s major counterparts have been able to trade near important mid-term resistance and show an ability to actually penetrate these values higher, ADA/USD has yet to accomplish this task. The price range between 1.15000000 and 1.50000000 may prove crucial during the month of April if positive price action continues to build. If a realistic challenge to the prices of mid-January were to be seen this would be very positive.

Traders should keep in mind the velocity of price movement.  ADA/USD has the capability to move quickly and it is still within the lower tier of its long term price range. Yes, Cardano did suffer long term lows in the middle of March, but its ability to climb higher and break above the 1.00000000 level is important. If the current price action of ADA/USD is able to be sustained, Cardano could provide speculators with intriguing volatility upwards if traders decide the cryptocurrency remains undervalued in its current price range.

The USD/INR exploded higher in the second week of March and touched all-time highs, before slowly beginning to ebb lower in an incremental fashion.

The USD/INR is trading near 75.7000 as of this writing, which is very close to values the forex pair started the month of March as momentum to the upside was becoming technically apparent. On the 7^th and 8^th of March the USD/INR shot past the 77.1000 level briefly as global forex trading also wobbled and financial institutions reacted to global political and economic issues. The high within the USD/INR achieved on the 7^th of March reached an all-time high.

Traders of the USD/INR have had to deal with volatility that likely proved costly if too much leverage was used and the wrong direction was chosen.  After hitting the apex highs at the end of the first week in March, the USD/INR began to trade in a more reasonable manner and started to produce downside. Incrementally the USD/INR has broken short term support levels, but speculators should remain ultra-aware regarding the forex pair’s ability to move fast.

The USD has taken a very strong undertone as the U.S Federal Reserve has begun to initiate it interest rate hikes.  However as experienced speculators may know, the price of the USD/INR may have reacted too strongly to the combination of political and economic concerns shadowing the financial markets. The steep climb in the USD/INR appears to have been overbought to most observers. However, betting against the trend as velocity ran lightning quick in the first week of March may have resulted in significant losses for those trying to sell the USD/INR before it reached its apex highs.

The current price of the USD/INR still remains relatively high, but traders may feel quite nervous about looking for downside with questions still looming globally that could affect forex.  The use of stop loss, and entry price orders is urged for traders who want to participate in the USD/INR. Traders should remain realistic regarding their price targets in April and should remain conservative.

The belief that U.S Fed interest rates have already been ‘baked’ into the price of the USD/INR may prove to be correct.  However it doesn’t mean an instantaneous selling reaction of the forex pair will ignite and cause the USD/INR to suddenly test lows it has not seen since February when the 74.750 mark was being tested within a rather choppy range.

Traders may want to pursue technical trends, while hoping for reversals.  The notion the USD/INR has displayed its most violent trading results may be logical, but speculators are encouraged to use their risk taking tactics carefully. Choppy trading during the month of April is likely as financial institutions react to sudden ‘noise’ that develops from afar.

USD/INR Outlook for April 2022:

Speculative price range for USD/INR is 75.1600 to 76.3700.

The 75.5000 level appears to be important short term support; if this level is proven vulnerable another wave downwards could be produced. Intriguingly the 75.6000 juncture may prove to be a sensitive trading area, this because the value of the USD/INR began March around this level. If this support level is broken lower and sustained, traders may believe a ‘recovery’ in strength for the Indian Rupee is about to emerge and challenge lower values.

If the 75.5000 breaks support and shows price velocity, the next logical level to look for may be the 75.4000 ratio. Prices below this juncture may produce a lot of buying from speculators who then seek reversals higher. Should the USD/INR actually fall through the 75.3000 level, lower depths could be demonstrated and be attractive for traders who believe the forex pair is then oversold in the short term.

Traders looking for upside may want to wait to remain patient and look for support levels to be flirted with in order to ignite buying positions. Having traded above the 76.0000 mark and even the 77.0000 level in March, the USD/INR displayed an ability to create massive moves higher, but these heights may prove to be too high for the forex pair moving forward. Bullish traders may find their best results waiting for lower levels to be hit and looking for quick hitting reversals upwards in the coming weeks. The USD/INR at 75.9500 appears to be overbought, but recent trading has proven logic sometimes does not work when market conditions are fragile.

ETH/USD is traversing near mid-term highs as its price headed into April is approaching values not seen since the 12th of January.

Speculators within ETH/USD may be undergoing a shift of sentiment which may attract additional buying wagers in the month of April.  Having touched a low of nearly 2450.00 on the 7^th of March, ETH/USD has displayed a rather durable climb since hitting this price level. The low on the 7^th didn’t break through the lows seen in the last week of February, and this may have provided some buying impetus. However, ETH/USD did display choppy trading from the 8^th until the 15^th of March, when the 2500.00 mark was seen on a reversal lower.

From a technical viewpoint though, ETH/USD has produced incremental gains and its current price near 3375.00 is proof.  Ethereum has led the broad cryptocurrency market higher, along with its major counterparts. The notion that nervous sentiment is being pushed to the side and optimistic speculation is growing in force appears correct. Having broken important short term resistance levels upward, ETH/USD is now challenging a juncture it has not seen since the 12^th of January.

If the 3400.00 mark can be toppled and values sustained above this juncture, traders would then have to set their sights on price action in ETH/USD from mid-December until the end of that month. Ethereum traded in a rather choppy range mostly between 3600.00 and 4000.00 between the 13^th and 31^st of December. Yes, these prices were displaying some weakness as Ethereum was sinking from its high of nearly 4,900.00 on the 10^th of November, so buyers must remain cautious.

However, ETH/USD like all cryptocurrency for traders is about trend and the recent turnaround in value is attractive. Conservative bullish speculators may want to see the 3400.00 level broken higher and sustained; they may even look for December prices of 3600.00 to be toppled first. Speculators willing to take the risk and look for upside movement sooner rather than later however, cannot be faulted. History in the cryptocurrencies often proves that turnarounds upward, after strong bearish trends have ended can develop fast.

Bullish traders should remain realistic; targeting highs near 4000.00 may prove to take too much time.  The use of take profits and cautious leverage is encouraged. Yes, ETH/USD could certainly selloff and sink below important support, but for traders who believe the tide has turned in the broad cryptocurrency market, they may be proven correct if they believe ETH/USD could produce additional price velocity higher.

 

 

ETH/USD Outlook for April:

Speculative price range for ETH/USD is 2770.00 to 4125.00.

Skeptics of the recent move higher may try to be sellers at the current price levels ETH/USD are challenging.  However they should have strong stop losses working in case Ethereum continues its march higher. If ETH/USD is able to puncture the 3300.00 mark lower and begins to make 3200.00 look vulnerable, this could make speculators nervous who have been pursuing buying positions. If the 3000.00 mark is broken lower, this could set off alarm bells if the key psychological level fails to hold back a selling tide and more trouble could loom.

Support has shown some durability in March. If ETH/USD prices are sustained above the crucial support level of 3100.00 this could be looked at in a positive light by some traders who may believe it is just a consolidation level before the next move upwards is created.

The 3400.00 to 3500.00 marks should be watched carefully.   If the 3500.00 suddenly looks vulnerable, ETH/USD could see additional buying be propelled as traders come to the perceived conclusion that December values are about to be retested. After suffering a long bearish trend, buyers of ETH/USD may believe now is the time to pursue more upside. Traders need to certainly be careful and be willing to cash in their winnings before they vanish upon sudden reversals lower with their speculative positions.

XRP/USD has accomplished a solid gain during the month of March, and as April gets ready to start important mid-term resistance is ahead.

XRP/USD is trading above 86 cents as of this writing, this after actually moving above 91 cents on the 28^th of March.   Keeping in mind that Ripple was trading at nearly 69 cents on the 4^th of March, XRP/USD has gained nearly 20% in value during March depending on the dates the calculation is made. XRP/USD like the broad cryptocurrency market, has suffered from a serious long term bearish trend, but the month of March produced a shift in sentiment for the major cryptocurrencies and Ripple can be said to have been a leader among the pack.

While many of the other major cryptocurrencies began their most recent moves higher late in second week of March, XRP/USD began to climb incrementally on the 7^th of March. Ripple has seen some volatile trading results, but the moves have mostly been to the upside. Rumors circulating about Ripple’s ongoing court case, which the U.S government is pressing ahead with against Ripple certainly has fueled some of the sudden gyrations in XRP/USD. However, the take away many speculators may be beginning to consider is that XRP/USD has held onto gains and not experienced violent selling.

If a broad cryptocurrency market correlation is sought by traders, on the 15^th of March XRP/USD was trading slightly above the 74 cents level.  The gains made the past two weeks of trading have been accomplished rather well. Traders who have kept their ambitions realistic and been willing to use take profit orders may have been able to achieve solid results. The current capability of XRP/USD to sustain its 86 cent juncture and not slide below 84 cents should continue to be watched.

Risk sentiment in Ripple may be undergoing a shift from nervous leanings towards a more positive stance. The marks of 91 cents a couple of days ago brought prices seen in the second week of February into sight for XRP/USD. From the 7^th until the 10^th of February, XRP/USD flirted with the 92 cents mark also. Having fallen back from this high a couple of days ago, may be taken in a negative light by skeptics who believe Ripple and other cryptocurrencies are still within the tight grip of a bearish market. However the trend in the month of March has been positive for XRP/USD, so bullish optimism may continue to flourish in April.

Ripple Outlook for April:

Speculative price range for XRP/USD is 0.69000 to 1.15000.

Current support for XRP/USD should be monitored near the 84 to 83 cents ratios. If these levels can be maintained buyers of Ripple may look at these junctures as places to initiate their long positions. If XRP/USD were to fall below 81 cents level, this could spark nervousness and traders may start looking to sell Ripple once again. If consolidated trading can be accomplished near term and the 86 cents mark proves steady, this may be enough to create more buying interest in XRP/USD.

Bullish optimism may be building and if the 92 cents marks is challenged and proves to be vulnerable, the values of Ripple would then be testing ratios not seen since the last week of December in 2021. The 1.00000 mark remains a key psychological hurdle for XRP/USD if this level can be penetrated higher and prices are sustained, Ripple could see a flood of additional buyers step into the market. Any move above 1.01000 for XRP/USD would set off alarm bells among speculative bulls; this because long term charts looking at November 2021 trading results would have to be studied to gain more perspective on potential moves higher.  If the 1.02000 proves attainable and the broad cryptocurrency market remains optimistic, traders will likely to start to dream of the 1.10000 mark up above.

Ultimately, this is a market that has been in an uptrend for plenty of reasons, not the least of which would be the fact that there is a lot of fear out there.

Gold markets were very choppy during March but are sitting on a major support level. At this point, traders are trying to figure out what to do next, because we had seen such a big move to the upside preceding this. Because of this, I think we will more likely than not try to figure out where to go next during the month of April.

This could lead to more choppy behavior, with the $1920 level in the futures market offering support. It should extend down to the $1880 level, creating a “zone of support.” I believe this area is going to be crucial for the longer-term uptrend, so as long as we can stay above there, gold will still have a chance to rally. However, you cannot overlook the fact that we had recently formed a major “double top” on the weekly chart, just below the $2100 level. This is a very negative turn of events but there are buyers just below, so I think we are about to get some type of squeeze.

What I mean by this is that the market could move rather rapidly in one direction or another. If we break down below the $1880 level, then it is likely that we could go down to the $1800 level. On the other hand, if we were to break higher from here, the $2000 level would be a likely target, and if we can break above there it is possible that we go looking towards the $2100 level.

Ultimately, this is a market that has been in an uptrend for plenty of reasons, not the least of which would be the fact that there is a lot of fear out there. The war in Ukraine continues to have people running for safety, but sooner or later people will start to determine whether or not the interest rates in the bond market are starting to outweigh the potential advantages of owning gold. This could be a major detriment to gold if it gets out of hand. It does look like we are more positive than negative, but the last couple of weeks have shown a serious deceleration in enthusiasm. Pay attention to the US Dollar Index, as it can offer a strong negative correlation as well.

Almost all of this is going to come down to the Federal Reserve and whether or not they will back up.

The NASDAQ 100 rallied during March, breaking above the 15,000 level again. That is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, so it is worth noting. That being said, the NASDAQ 100 looks as if it is trying to recover fully, but this is going to come down to the Federal Reserve more than anything else.

Bond markets are expecting an extraordinarily high yield going forward, and some indications are that bond traders are anticipating as many as eight interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve will get nowhere near there unless inflation gets completely out of control. If it does in fact get completely out of control, then the Federal Reserve will get aggressive with its tightening cycle, which will have a bit of a knock-on effect on stock markets in general.

Keep in mind that the NASDAQ 100 is highly sensitive to risk appetite, as well as interest rates. If interest rates do in fact continue to climb, that will work against the value of the NASDAQ 100. The markets continue to move on just a handful of names, and that will always be the case. The NASDAQ 100 is a market cap-weighted type of index, meaning that Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, and a handful of others are what move everything.

At this juncture, it looks as if we are trying to recover completely, but if we were to break down below the 50-week EMA at the 14,530 level, then it is likely that the market could break down to reach the 13,000 level again. This would obviously fall in line with other indices, such as the S&P 500. The market will continue to be very noisy, but one can say that we are still in the midst of a “bear market bounce” that could get sold into. However, if we clear the 15,250 level, it is likely that the market will continue to go higher.

Almost all of this is going to come down to the Federal Reserve and whether or not they will back up. History suggests that they very well could, but until then there will always be a little bit of hesitation. At this point, the traders on Wall Street seems to believe that the Federal Reserve will come riding to their rescue yet again.

I anticipate that the month of April is going to be a chaotic mess, just as we have seen during the month of March.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market was very noisy during the month of March, so we need to be very cautious about jumping “all in”, as this market has a lot of crosswinds to deal with at the moment.

The most obvious problem will be the war in Ukraine, as it has taken a lot of Russian crude off the markets. The counterbalance is going to be the fact that we are getting closer to Iranian oil, as well as the possibility that Venezuela may be opened back up. If that is the case, it will open up quite a bit of supply in the market, and that could drive down prices. Another thing that could come into the picture is the idea of the biggest cure for higher prices will be higher prices. In other words, it creates a significant amount of demand destruction.

It appears that the $100 level will offer a certain amount of support, as it is not only an area where we have seen structural support, but it is also psychologically important. If we were to break down below there, then I think the market will go looking towards the $95 level. There is more structural support in that area, so I believe that breaking down below the $95 level would cause quite a bit of selling pressure. This would almost be certainly an effect on some type of fundamental news that drives down crude oil pricing.

On the upside, I think that the $120 level will more likely than not end up being a major resistance, so breaking above that could open up a move towards the highs again. A lot of this is going to come down to motion, but when you look at the weekly chart, you can clearly see that there has been an elevation of volatility, which is one thing that could work against the value of the market. We have a couple of clear levels that we need to pay close attention to, which could lead us to bigger gains or losses. I anticipate that the month of April is going to be a chaotic mess, just as we have seen during the month of March. However, the type of inertia that is being built up cannot last forever.

I suspect that the month of April is going to be just as noisy as the month of March. 

The S&P 500 has spent most of the month rallying in the face of a whole slew of issues. The question now will be whether or not Wall Street will get its wish, meaning that there will not be that many interest-rate hikes, or if the bond market will prove itself correct? At the end of the day, that is probably the most important question that is being asked overall.

For the last 13 or so years, I have watched Wall Street ignore fundamental strengths and weaknesses, trading solely based on the idea of liquidity. The fact is that the Federal Reserve has facilitated this nonsense, throwing money into the upper echelons of the economy, and ignoring the real economy. This is where we are now, and it will be interesting to see which side they choose: Wall Street or Main Street.

I do not think at this point in time everybody’s going to be happy. Ultimately, this is a market that will have to decide what the Federal Reserve is going to do, but I believe that the Federal Reserve will have to walk a very fine line to make everybody happy, or at least not destroy the market, be it the stock market or the bond market.

At this juncture, it is worth noting that we are testing the previous uptrend line that had been so important for so long. If we can get a move above the 4700 level, we will then take off to the upside and perhaps go looking towards 5000. If we were to turn around and break down below the 4500 level, we could hit the 4200 level. The last couple of weeks have been very volatile and bullish, but ultimately, I think we need to see whether or not we can continue to go higher.

The market would see a lot of noise after a move like this, so you need to be very cautious. In general, I think this is a scenario where we need to keep your position size relatively reasonable, as you should only add to a position that is working out in your favor. I suspect that the month of April is going to be just as noisy as the month of March. With this in mind, we have a couple of levels to watch and any action between here and there will more likely than not be noise.