The market will continue to be very noisy, and I still do not trust it enough to start buying it.

Avalanche rallied a bit during the day on Thursday, as we are above the $17 level again. Getting 7% sounds impressive, but at the end of the day, Avalanche has absolutely cratered, living up to its name over the last year or so. The market will continue to be very noisy, and I still do not trust this market enough to start buying it.

The 50 Day EMA is sitting at the $30 level and dropping, so therefore I think that is an indicator that you need to pay close attention to. This is an area that will be important, assuming that we can even get there. After all, Avalanche would have to almost double to threaten that area. Avalanche continues to look very weak, and it’s likely that we will continue to see downward pressure. Quite frankly, I do not think that we have seen the last of the selling, and you need to keep an eye on the bigger and more important crypto markets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, because as long as they struggle, smaller ones like Avalanche will most certainly do the same.

Now that we are entering into “crypto winter”, we need to start asking questions about ecosystems and whether or not they are going to exist in a few years. This is much like 1999 when a lot of technology stocks disappeared because they had not produced any type of profits. There was a point where people would buy anything with a “.com” attached to the name, and that is essentially what crypto has just seen. Because of this, people will in the future start to ask questions about whether or not the project is viable, or perhaps more importantly: whether developers are finding any real use for an ecosystem.

Unfortunately for crypto, there has been no real widescale adoption of it, although there may be in the future. That being said, it’s very likely that we will continue to see some of the weaker markets get flushed, perhaps even this one. The reality is that Avalanche is yet another market that may find itself disappearing, or perhaps thriving down the road. We need to see some “killer app” on the Avalanche platform for it to be viable. Otherwise, it’s a “cell on the rallies” type of situation.

AVAX/USD remains in the lower depths of its long term price range, and hopes of a strong reversal higher appear diminished for the near term.

AVAX/USD achieved a high of nearly 25.0000 yesterday, but since reaching this level has seen its price incrementally move lower. Price action has not seen a great deal of volatility in the past couple of days, and this may actually prove to be a worrying sign for some speculators who suspect that current consolidation will not prove durable.

Early this week on the 6^th and 7^th of June AVAX/USD was able to flirt with the 26.0000 mark, but sustained trading over this juncture never was firmly established. The broad cryptocurrency market also staged a bit of a run higher at this time, but has also shown a tendency to stumble lower the past couple of days. Speculators who believe AVAX/USD is oversold and looked at this week’s early results as a signal value recovery could be underway, have probably had their hopes dashed.

The long term bearish trend remains solidly in place for AVAX/USD and its current value near 24.3500 is within sight of crucial support levels.  Early this morning’s low of nearly 23.7000 touched ratios seen on the 7^th of June, but they did not penetrate to the lowest depths seen on Tuesday. From a technical perspective AVAX/USD remains within a troubling range that seems intent on challenging prices from August of 2021. If the current price band were to fail the lows seen in the last week of May, only a week and a half ago, could easily be demonstrated again when the 21.3000 ratio was tested.

Speculators who want to continue pursuing downside momentum of AVAX/USD cannot be blamed. Perhaps it may be a wise decision to wait for some upside movement to technical resistance levels which are deemed durable, and then ignite selling positions while looking for Avalanche to slide lower. The broad cryptocurrency market remains fragile and a sudden burst of robust buying seems like wishful thinking in the near term.

If support near 24.1000 begins to look vulnerable and the 24.0000 mark falters, traders may believe AVAX/USD could test crucial support levels again.  The bearish trend of AVAX/USD should not be ignored, while it might be tempting to wager on upside momentum for quick hitting reversals and potential profits, it is the downside which continuously seems to be the testing ground for new results and better wagers.

Avalanche Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 24.91000000

Current Support: 23.80000000

High Target: 27.73000000

Low Target: 21.91000000

AVAX/USD continues to see downward pressure and its price is lingering near the lower part of its long term value.

AVAX/USD as of this writing is slightly above the 23.50000000 level. Avalanche continues to demonstrate downward momentum like many of its major counterparts in cryptocurrency. On the 22^nd of November 2021, AVAX/USD was trading near the 135.00000000 vicinity. Avalanche enjoyed a terrific honeymoon in 2021 and was considered one of the new digital assets with a bright future. As of this writing it is the 15^th largest cryptocurrency regarding market capitalization.

However most of the positive glimmer of AVAX/USD has lost its shine and the digital asset is now traversing support levels that are dangerous. AVAX/USD is still above its lows from July of 2021 and its ability to maintain some support is intriguing, but the ‘intrigue’ technically can be perceived to be negative. On the 27^th of May AVAX/USD traded near the 21.25000000 juncture, this was below the price it hit on the 12^th of May when Avalanche momentarily spiked to a low of 22.30000000 approximately.

The negative trend in AVAX/USD mirrors the price action of its major counterparts, but its relatively new shelf life since it really only became a full trading digital asset in many respects during 2021 leaves room for consideration.  The reason for this is because technically if AVAX/USD were to break below the 20.00000000 value and suddenly find that it is testing mid-August 2021 prices it could spark additional nervous selling.

If the 19.00000000 were to be tested in the near term and AVAX/USD continues to experience nervous selling sentiment, it could open the door for a test of values seen in July of 2021 which were under 10.00 USD. Speculators who choose to wager with selling orders on AVAX/USD should keep their ambitions realistic. Before AVAX/USD touches July 2021 prices, it obviously would need to break below August 2021 values. A loss of an additional 50% of value in Avalanche does looks potentially possible, but the broad cryptocurrency market could reverse higher before that happens and the 10.00000000 may never be seen again. Rome was not built in a day, nor was it destroyed in a day.

AVAX/USD remains volatile and it moves with sudden bursts of energy that all speculators need to be prepared to manage. If AVAX/USD remains negative and the broad cryptocurrency market stays in a selling mode near term, new short term lows may be seen and this perception may entice speculators who believe the bearish trend will remain in effect.

Avalanche Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 24.32000000

Current Support: 22.76000000

High Target: 26.73000000

Low Target: 19.18000000

Crypto has a fraud problem that it is trying to address right now, so trust is very low in this market, and all coins are being treated with suspicion.

The Avalanche market rallied a bit on Monday, but as you can see, we have been selling off quite drastically. In fact, you could say that Avalanche lived up to its name since the $80 level. The Monday candlestick was an attempt to regain some ground but ended up selling off late in the day to form a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star is obviously a negative candlestick, and it looks like we are trying to test the $30 level to see if that previous support holds as resistance. So far, it has.

There is absolutely nothing on this chart that tells me we cannot reach the lows again, and then perhaps plunge below $20. As the crypto space collapses, there’s no reason to think that some of these coins won’t. I don’t necessarily think that Avalanche will disappear, but to say it was overvalued was an understatement. At this point, I think $20 will be an area of interest, but it’s very likely that we will break below there as well. I don’t think it will be done in one fell swoop, but it certainly seems likely.

At that point, I would anticipate that Avalanche could drop another 50% to reach the $10 level. As far as buying is concerned, I really don’t have a situation in which I would do so for anything more than a short-term trade, and quite frankly I don’t have any interest in trying to “catch a falling knife.” I believe that the $30 level will continue to offer significant resistance, thereby allowing the market to sell off every time there is the slightest hint of trouble.

If we did break above the $30 level on an impulsive green candlestick, then we could go looking as high as $50, and that certainly is possible in a bear market. After all, bear market rallies tend to be very vicious, as we have just seen in the S&P 500. However, crypto has a fraud problem that it is trying to address right now, so trust is very low in this market, and all coins are being treated with suspicion. This is especially true with the smaller markets, which quite frankly need Bitcoin to get its act together before they can show any real signs of life again.

AVAX/USD has moved slightly higher in the last day of trading, but Avalanche remains near dangerous lows in a market that shows growing nervousness.

AVAX/USD is near the 60.25000000 ratio as of this writing having moved slightly higher in recent trading. However, the slight move upwards does not mask the slide downwards that AVAX/USD has produced the past month and its inability to establish a solid reversal higher. The lack of capability to sustain a move upwards mirrors the results from the broad cryptocurrency market and AVAX/USD is near important psychological support levels.

On the 2^nd of April AVAX/USD was trading slightly below the 103.00000000 mark, the loss of value the past month has been dramatic for Avalanche. The bearish trend has proven strong and traders who have been tempted to look for long lasting moves higher to develop have likely experienced rather costly results within their trading accounts. As Avalanche trades within the 60 to 61 USD price realms, traders need to consider long term technical charts to grasp the dangerous price vicinity AVAX/USD looms.

If the 60.00000000 mark is shown to be vulnerable, traders cannot be blamed for believing lows seen only a few days ago will be displayed again.  On the 30^th of April and 2^nd of May the 56 USD ratio was tested by AVAX/USD. The last time these current price realms of AVAX/USD were traded was in the last week of January.  This value vicinity was also seen in October of 2021.

Traders who believe AVAX/USD may move lower cannot be faulted. Certainly the price of Avalanche may feel as if it has been oversold. But lower depths have been seen before, and if current support levels fail to hold it is not outside the realm of possibility that the 55 to 54 USD mark for Avalanche could be experienced again. The broad cryptocurrency market is exhibiting widespread nervousness and many of the major digital assets are testing important lows.

The bearish trend in AVAX/USD has failed to produce a significant reversal higher which could change the sentiment of most day traders. While looking for upside may be a wager some speculators want to make, these bets may prove to be best served by quick hitting trades that use take profit orders to cash out lightning quick results, otherwise they could prove to be expensive losing bets.

Traders on the other hand who remain skeptical of a sudden turnaround in AVAX/USD developing near term, may want to continue pursuing downside momentum which has been rather strong. Selling AVAX/USD and looking for support levels to be tested and used as take profit junctures may be worthwhile wagers short term.

Avalanche Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 61.10000000

Current Support: 59.42000000

High Target: 63.46000000

Low Target: 54.24000000