Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD and set a take-profit at 32,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 28,368.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD and set a take-profit at 28,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 26,000.

The BTC/USD pair remained in the tight range where it has been in the past few weeks. Bitcoin is trading at 30,911, which is lower than this week’s high of $31,430. Its performance mirrors that of other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin stuck in a range

The BTC/USD pair declined on Monday and Tuesday after the SEC continued its crackdown on cryptocurrencies. The regulator is investigating Binance, the biggest cryptocurrency in the world for its BNB coin. According to media reports, the agency is questioning the company for selling the token without following the law.

Bitcoin is still consolidating after New York legislators passed a law banning Bitcoin mining. The new move is notable since most mining companies are now making losses considering that the cost of power has jumped sharply.

Meanwhile, data by Glassnode shows that most Bitcoin holders are now sitting on unrealized losses. Still, the report noted that there are signs that the bear market is close to ending. They cited the fact that profit multiples by miners have compressed while financial stress has increased. Historically, this is usually a sign that the bear market is capitulating.

Another sign that the bear market is nearing its end is the fact that the put-to-call ratio has remained below 0.70 for days. It has ended the uptrend that happened in the past few weeks. A ratio that is below 0.70 and falling is usually a bullish sign.

On a macro level, there is no major economic event scheduled today. The next key data to watch will be the upcoming US inflation data. Still, its impact on the BTC/USD pair will be relatively low.

BTC/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a narrow range in the past few days. The pair has moved between the key support and resistance level at 28,368 and 31,426. It is oscillating near the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

Meanwhile, the Mayer Multiple has moved to the oversold level of 0.68. This is a common indicator that shows the ratio between price and the 200-day moving average. As such, it is a tool used to find the deviation from the long-term average price.

Another model known as the Realized Price Model, which is used to identify bottoms. This price is currently at $23,600, which signals the average cost of all BTC in circulation. This is a sign that Bitcoin is about to bottom.

Look to fade rallies in this market

Bitcoin has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday to break above the $30,000 level. By doing so, it does suggest that perhaps we are getting ready to try to build some type of base, but we need to see a major shift in the US dollar to give Bitcoin any real chance of taking off. Keep in mind that the market does tend to be very volatile, and we are most certainly in a bear market at the moment.

If the US dollar continues to strengthen quite drastically, then it is likely that Bitcoin will slice through the $25,000 level. The market breaking through there would be a very negative turn of events, opening up a move down to the $20,000 level. Bitcoin is a major rack at the moment, as we have seen so much in the way of trouble by strengthening the greenback and interest rates rising. Furthermore, there has been a major disaster in the crypto market in the form of Luna, which has had people running for the hills as well. Regardless, this is a market that will continue to see sellers on rallies, and it is not until the market breaks back above the 50 Day EMA that you could even remotely begin to think about buying it.

As long as the US dollar is strong, the Bitcoin market has no real hope, as the quote currency is the greenback. I think at this point, you are looking to fade rallies, and I would not be surprised at all to see the Bitcoin market go all the way down to the $20,000 level. We could be entering “crypto winter”, as all crypto markets look like a disaster just waiting to happen. I have no interest in buying, and even if we did break above the 50 Day EMA, it is more likely than not going to be where the market goes sideways for a long period of time, and the moving average catches up with it. If you are a longer-term holder of Bitcoin, you might be able to make an argument to get involved, but you are going to have lower prices that you can start building from. There is no real reason to get involved to the upside anytime soon.

The GBP/USD exchange rate collapsed further into oversold territory on the charts last week, but it still risks further losses that could pull it back to 1.2255 or lower in the coming days. Rising Chinese economic growth risks support the dollar before the latest inflation report in the United States of America. The pound sank further against nearly all the G20’s crosses last week. This is in part to a roughly 2% drop in the pound-dollar exchange rate, which fell below 1.25 to enter the new week’s trading above the rounded figure from 1.23 after a collapse to the 1.2260 level, the lowest in nearly two years.

Last Thursday’s candid assessment by the Bank of England (BoE) of the difficulties likely awaiting the British economy and their constraining implications for interest rate expectations were the dominant drivers of sterling’s declines although the dollar also rose.

Friday’s payroll data showed a moderation in wage growth in the US in a potentially dampening result to inflation expectations during April, while Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision also appeared as a calming effect on US bond yields and the dollar. However, the inflationary economic effects of the EU’s faltering move towards a Russian oil embargo and global market volatility have kept the dollar ahead. The US currency is likely to benefit from growing concerns about the Chinese economic outlook.

This is after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was widely reported at the weekend that he had called for intensified efforts by the authorities to save jobs and support families as they grapple with the fallout from coronavirus containment measures in major urban centers including Shanghai and Beijing.

The deteriorating economic background and the government’s increasing willingness to support Chinese growth pose a downside risk to the renminbi and an upside risk to the USD/CAD pair, which in turn indicates continued headwinds for many other currencies relative to the greenback from early this week.

Accordingly, some analysts are of the opinion that “GBP/USD could remain weak this week due to dollar strength and concerns about the British economy amid the energy price shock. There is downside support for the GBP/USD at 1.2112.”

International headwinds are putting an additional strain on the pound-dollar exchange rate ahead of Wednesday’s release of US inflation data for April and Thursday’s release of UK first-quarter GDP numbers, both of which are highlights in the coming week for the dollar and the pound, respectively.

According to the technical analysis of the currency pair: The bearish expectations for the price performance of the GBP/USD currency pair are open to the extent that the pessimism situation highlighted by the Bank of England recently remained. Accordingly, the psychological support of 1.2000 may be a legitimate target to continue the momentum of the US dollar from the current factors and from the important economic data for the currency pair this week. On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair will need at least a 500-pips bounce from the current levels to reverse the current downtrend.

For two days in a row, the bears succeeded in stabilizing the price of the GBP/USD currency pair below the 1.3000 psychological support, with losses to the 1.2982 support level. It settled around the 1.3030 level at the time of writing the analysis. In general, the price of the pound sterling stopped in its recent recovery last week. It may now be exposed to the risk of a relapse as the pound moves through a series of economic data risks, and in return, the euro is likely to benefit from the French political developments and the central bank’s policy decision. The US dollar may move stronger than the inflation figures, which may support further tightening of the Fed’s policy.

At the beginning of this week’s trading. Britain’s economic growth slowed in February amid a decline in the production of cars, computers and chemicals. The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s gross domestic product increased just 0.1% from the previous month, down from 0.8% in January. Output of productive industries, including manufacturing, mining and power generation, fell 0.6% in the month. Construction work was down 0.1%. These declines were largely offset by an increase in service industries, led by an 8.6% jump in accommodation and food services. The Office for National Statistics also said monthly GDP is now 1.5% higher than pre-pandemic levels. While service production is 2.1% higher compared to February 2020. The construction sector is up 1.1%, while manufacturing and production are down 1.9% from pre-pandemic levels.

Service industries account for about 80% of the UK’s economic output.

The British pound was negatively affected in forex trading by uncertainty over the Bank of England’s interest rate policy outlook after the Bank of England cited inflationary pressure to enter in March as a possible partial equalizer for additional bank rate increases later this year. The Bank of England has raised its bank rate three times since December but raised doubts about whether it will be raised further in the short term, which could prevent sterling from benefiting if Wednesday’s UK inflation data surprises to the upside of market expectations.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: The price of the GBP/USD currency pair moved with its recent losses in technical indicators towards oversold levels, especially in the event of stability below the 1.3000 psychological support level. This may encourage the bears to move further downwards and does not rule out moving towards the 1.2680 support level. . On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart, the bulls should move towards the resistance level 1.3335, to be an opportunity to abandon the current stronger downward trend.

In terms of economic calendar data today, the details of jobs and wages numbers in Britain will be announced first, then the most important US inflation numbers will be announced through the Consumer Price Index.