We expect the lira’s decline to continue.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buying or selling transactions of yesterday were activated.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a sell position with a pending order from 17.41 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from 17.00 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.88.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.40

The Turkish lira stabilized without changes against the dollar during today’s trading, to complement yesterday’s divergence. The Turkish lira settled near its lowest level ever recorded during 2022. It is expected that the Ministry of Finance in Turkey will announce a new type of bond, which aims to attract more support for the local currency, which is facing great pressure. The announcement of the bonds coincides with the announcement of the interest rate in the United States of America, amid different expectations between raising the interest rate between 50 or 75 basis points. In other news, Turkey’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources today announced plans to re-explore the country’s old natural gas field in the Black Sea. These explorations will open new horizons, Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said, adding that “if we evaluate the work taking into account the depth of their implementation, this is likely to be one of the most difficult areas in the world.” It is noteworthy that energy prices are responsible for the largest increases in the volume of inflation recorded by the country, which reached its highest level in 24 years.

On the technical front, without major changes, the Turkish currency traded at the highest levels of 17 during today’s trading. The pair maintained its trading in a general bullish trend, with the pair trading the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 17.00 and 16.80 levels, respectively. The pair also continued trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.40 and 17.80, respectively. The level of 17.41 represents a strong resistance level. We expect the lira’s decline to continue, as every decline on the pair represents an opportunity to repurchase, especially if it crosses the mentioned resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

The pair will likely keep falling in the coming days as the dollar strength continues. The next key support level will be at 1.0700.

Bearish View

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0700.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0850.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0835 and a take-profit at 1.0925.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0750.

The EUR/USD pair is hovering near its lowest level since 2020 after the strong US housing data and the IMF warning about the global economy. It is trading at 1.0800, which is substantially lower than last week high of 1.0923.

IMF Warning On the Global Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered a major warning about the global economy on Tuesday. The agency said that the ongoing crisis in Ukraine will lead to a substantial slowdown of the global economy this year. It expects the economy will grow by 3.6% this year., down by 0.8% from its previous guidance in January.

The IMF also warned that European economies were substantially vulnerable especially if they decide to place an embargo on Russian oil and gas. The countries have announced that they are considering blocking Russian oil in a bid to punish the country.

At the same time, the agency warned that inflation will remain high in the coming months as the cost of most items remains stubbornly high. Data published last week showed that the American consumer inflation jumped to the highest level in over 40 years. Investors also expect the upcoming inflation data from the European Union rose to the highest point in decades in March.

The EUR/USD reacted mildly to the latest housing starts and building permits data. The numbers revealed that the country’s building permits rose from 1.86 million in February to 1.87 million in March. In the same period, housing starts rose from 1.788 million to 1.79 million.

The pair declined as American bond yields continued rising. The 10-year yield jumped to 1.29% while the 30-year rose to 3% for the first time in years. This performance is because investors expect that the Federal Reserve will move faster than expected. The EU will publish the latest industrial production data.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few days. It is now trading at 1.0800, which was the lowest level on March 7th. It has moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also formed what looks like an inverted cup and handle pattern and is slightly above the key support level at 1.0758, which was the lowest level this year.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling in the coming days as the dollar strength continues. The next key support level will be at 1.0700.

The path of the least resistance is lower as sellers target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7315.

Bearish View

• Sell the AUD/USD and set a take-profit at 0.7300.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7425.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish View

• Add a buy-stop at 0.7400 and a take-profit at 0.7500.
• Set a stop-loss at 0.7300.

The AUD/USD pair slipped to the lowest level since March 17th as investors reacted to the latest economic data from China. It dropped to a low of 0.7352, which was about 4% below the highest point this month.

China Economic Slowdown

The Australian and Chinese economies have a close relationship. China buys most of Australia’s commodities like copper, coal, and iron ore. At the same time, many Chinese students go to study in Australia. Therefore, investors tend to look at Chinese data to predict the health of the Australian economy.

Data published by the Chinese government showed that the country’s economy expanded by 4.8% in the frst quarter compared to the same period in 2021. The economy expanded by 1.3% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. These numbers were better than what analysts were expecting.

However, other closely watched data revealed that the economy was starting to struggle as the Covid-19 pandemic continued. For example, retail sales declined 3.5% in March. This was the first YoY decline since July 2020. The unemployment rate also rose from 5.5% to 5.8%.

The AUD/USD also declined after the RBA published minutes of the previous meeting. In this month’s meeting, officials left interest rates unchanged and signaled that they were losing patience with the ongoing trends on inflation. The officials expect that the country’s economy will continue doing well in the coming months. As a result, most analysts believe that the bank will start hiking interest rates in June meeting.

The AUD/USD pair fell as America’s bond yields continued rising. The 10-year yield rose to 2.81% while the 30-year rose to 2.9%. The two-year rose to 2.45% as investors waited for the American building permits and housing starts data.

AUD/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few days. The pair has managed to move below the important level at 0.7442, which was the highest point on March 7th. It also declined below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Further, the pair moved slightly below the 15-period and 25-period moving averages.

Therefore, the path of the least resistance is lower as sellers target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7315. This view will be invalidated if the price moves above the key resistance at 0.7445.