This is a market that I think continues to show negativity, so I like the idea of shorting signs of exhaustion if we get those.

• The AUD/USD currency pair fell significantly Friday as interest rates in America started to spike again.
• The jobs number came out much hotter than anticipated, so people are starting to assume that the Federal Reserve will have to continue to be very tight.
• After all, the Federal Reserve has been trying to tell everybody over the past week that they are nowhere near pivoting, and the US dollar shrinking was a bit of a stretch.

Technical Analysis

At this point, the market is threatening to 0.69 level, which is an area that I think a lot of people pay close attention to. We did pierce that level at one point, but then turned around to rally and break above it. This does not suggest to me that the market is ready to turn around for a bigger move, just that we are struggling a bit at this point. If we can break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then I think that it’s likely that the Aussie will go looking to the 0.68 level. After that, we could open up a move down to the 0.67 level. If we were to break down below the 0.67 level, then that would be a major turnaround in the market, and perhaps open up a rush of selling.

On the other hand, if we were to rally at this point, the 50-day EMA just above is going to cause a little bit of technical resistance, and then possibly the 0.70 level. The 0.70 level is a major area of noise all the way to the 0.7050 level. If we were to break above the 0.7050 level, then it’s possible that we could go much higher. If we break above there, then we would be looking at a potential move to the 200-day EMA.

This is a market that I think continues to show negativity, so I like the idea of shorting signs of exhaustion if we get those. At this point in time, it’s likely that we will see the US dollar strengthen given enough time. However, I think it continues to be very noisy to say the least, so it’s likely that we will have plenty of short-term selling opportunities in what is going to be a longer-term move.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best brokers to trade Forex worth using.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in the last trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -2.00%, to settle at the price of $ 7.931 per million British thermal units, after its decline during Friday’s trading by -1.72%. During the past week, natural gas declined by -3.84%, breaking a series of gains that continued for four consecutive weeks.

September gas futures contracts in Nymex settled at $8.064 per million British thermal units, down 5.8 cents on the day. October futures contracts in Nymex were down 6.3 cents at $8.051.

Natural gas futures fell sharply after the latest weather data showed cooler temperatures in the East Coast region of the United States. It would be a welcome respite from the stifling heat that has produced records all summer in an area where steep hikes are more common.

The cooler outlook is helping to cushion the stocks that have fueled higher prices throughout the summer, as demand increases supply, there are concerns that tight stocks and strong demand could lead to a shortage of the commodity this winter.

However, the latest government storage data provided the market with some optimism, as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that stocks for the week ending July 29 increased by 41 billion cubic feet, which is above the levels of the previous year and the five-year average.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the decline in natural gas comes amid the influx of negative signals on the relative strength indicators, as part of its attempts to search for a bullish bottom. It can take it as a base that might help it gain positive momentum to regain its recovery and rise again. This is in light of the dominance of the main bullish trend in the medium and short term along a slope line. as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. The positive pressure of its trading is continuing above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading, but on condition that its stability returns first above the resistance level 8.054, after which it will target the pivotal resistance level 9.600.

Ready to trade Natural Gas Forex? We’ve made a list of the best commodity trading brokers worth trading with.

This has been a nice little pullback and I think a lot of traders will look at the US dollar as being relatively “cheap”, at least in the short term.

• The US dollar turned around against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as we had broken below the ¥132.50 level.
• The ¥132.50 level is an area that has previously been resistant and supported, so a certain amount of market memory comes into the picture.
• The fact that we have turned around so violently is a good sign, and I think we are going to continue to see the uptrend respected, as long as we don’t get some type of major selloff in the US dollar overall.

Keep an Eye on Bonds

Yields had been crushed for a while, and that has had a lot to do with what happened with the Japanese yen over the last couple of days. After all, a lot of traders started to recognize that the Bank of Japan may not have to be as aggressive in buying bonds as it had been previously, to keep yields down. If that’s going to be the case, then they may not have to “print” as many yen as thought. However, as you’ll start to rise again, the Japanese will have to start buying more bonds. So, there you have it, this is where we are right now, watching the bond markets trying to figure out where we are going next.

This pair tends to be particularly sensitive to the 10-year yield, which of course shot straight up in the air during the session. Because of this, we started to see the Japanese yen give up some of its gains as the central bank will have to get aggressive again if this ends up being a bit of a trend. Yields have quite a way to go because we are nowhere near the neutral rate in the United States.

Ultimately, I think that the uptrend needed some type of pullback, and we have had that. Whether or not this is it could be a completely different question, but right now this has been a nice little pullback and I think a lot of traders will look at the US dollar as being relatively “cheap”, at least in the short term against the yen, maybe some other currencies. In fact, we saw the US dollar pick up momentum against the euro and the pound at the same time, showing that this is a worldwide move.

Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex trading platforms to check out.

The pair will likely keep rising as buyers target the key resistance at 0.9800.

Bullish View

• Buy the USD/CHF pair and a take-profit at 0.9800.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.9660.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 0.9670 and a take-profit at 0.9600.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.9750.

The USD/CHF price has continued its upside as the US dollar continued its strong rally and after the latest Switzerland unemployment rate data. It is trading at 0.9711, which is the highest it has been since June 17th. It has risen by 2.31% above the lowest level in June.

SNB and Fed Divergence

The USD/CHF pair rallied as investors reacted to the rising risks of a recession. Most analysts believe that the world economy is heading towards its worst financial crisis since the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Wall Street Journal, odds of a recession have risen from 20% in January to 40% in June.

In periods of turmoil, investors rush to the safety of the US dollar. This explains why the dollar index has risen to a two-decade high of over $106. The currency has risen to a 20-year high against the euro and to a 24-year high against the yen.

The Swiss franc has done relatively better than other peers because of the surprise actions by the Swiss National Bank. In June, the bank surprised the market when it decided to hike interest rates by 0.50%. Most analysts were expecting that the bank would leave rates unchanged. The rate hike was the first time that the bank did so in more than a decade.

The USD/CHF pair held steady as investors reacted to the latest Swiss unemployment rate data. Data by the country’s statistics agency showed that the rate declined from 2.1% to 2.0%. This means that the country has one of the lowest unemployment rate globally.

The Swiss economic data came on the same day that the ADP is expected to publish its estimate of the latest private jobs data. Analysts expect the numbers to show that the sector created 200k jobs. The US will also publish the latest NFP data on Friday.

USD/CHF Forecast

The USD/CHF price declined sharply in June after the hawkish SNB decision. The pair dropped to a low of 0.9495. Since June 29th, the pair has been in a strong bullish trend. It has managed to move to the second resistance of the standard pivot point.

The pair moved above the 25-day moving average while the MACD has continued rising. It has formed a rounded bottom pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as buyers target the key resistance at 0.9800.

It’s likely that every time this market rallies, there will be plenty of sellers that are willing to jump in and start shorting.

The Euro has fallen during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to go back and forth, with the 1.05 level being a bit of a magnet for price. When you look at the Euro, it’s not difficult to imagine that we could go lower, because quite frankly there’s no real reason for the US dollar to sell off from a longer-term perspective. Granted, the European Central Bank has recently suggested that maybe they will have to do something to help with inflationary headwinds, but at the same time they have also had an “emergency meeting” to discuss bond rates in Italy.

With all of that noise, it’s not a huge surprise to see this. Going sideways as people try to figure out what the ECB is going to do. We already know that the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy, so that is part of the reason why the US dollar continues to look attractive. That being said, we also need to look at the global growth situation, and it’s very possible that the economy drops quite drastically, which would work against the value of the Euro as most people will be looking to get their hands on US dollars.

The market continues to be very noisy, and it is worth looking at the double bottom at the 1.04 level as a major level. If we were to break down below that level, then it’s likely that the Euro will drop to the 1.02 level, maybe down to the parity level over the longer term. Alternately, if we were to turn around and take out the 1.08 level to the upside, that could show that the Euro is trying to change the overall trend, and therefore I would have to reevaluate the entire situation. In that scenario, I think the 200 Day EMA would come into the picture.

However, it’s likely that every time this market rallies, there will be plenty of sellers that are willing to jump in and start shorting. As the market continues to fade exhaustion will be something worth paying attention to, and therefore think you will get choppy yet negative price action over the next several weeks. As the session will be on a Friday, it’s going to be interesting to see how it ends up, because it will tell you a lot about how people feel about this currency pair, because what you hold over the weekend says a lot.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) settled on a decline in its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.36%. It settled at the price of $6.696 per million British thermal units, after it fell during Friday’s trading by It reached -6.34%. Last week, the price fell by -20.77 percent.

Natural gas futures were hit with the closing of the exceptionally volatile trading week, Nymex gas futures for July were down 52.0 cents and settled at $6.944 per million British thermal units. The August contract fell by 53.2 cents to $6.906.

Spot NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg was also down 85.5 cents to $6,770 ahead of the extended weekend due to the 19th National Independence Day holiday being spent on Monday in the United States.

The impact of the June 8 explosion at the Freeport LNG export terminal, and the ensuing announcement that exports from the facility would be halted for at least three months, continued to weigh on the minds of market participants. They may be out of order until late this year, and these developments are likely to enable the utilities to put gas that was destined for export into storage for next winter, relieving the supply fears that have plagued the market this spring.

However, production on Friday held about 95 billion cubic feet near its average for the month, and about 2 billion cubic feet less than what the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expected the summer average could be.

Prices proved volatile outside the US as well over the past week, although they rose in some regions such as Europe and Asia which are the main destinations for US LNG, amid growing concerns about insufficient supplies from US exporters due to the Freeport incident.

Technically, the price is trying to correct the main bullish trend in the medium term and search for a bullish bottom to take as a base. This may gain it some positive momentum to regain its recovery and rise again. This is especially with the arrival of the relative strength indicators to areas that are very oversold, and exaggeratedly compared to the price movement. It approaches pivotal support level 6.521, but it continues to suffer from negative pressure due to its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations indicate a likely scenario of a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading, provided that the support level 6.521 remains intact, to target the first resistance levels at 7.532.

I will only add to positions once they prove themselves.

The Australian dollar rallied a bit on Wednesday to form a double-bottom pattern. Ultimately, the market has been hanging around the 0.6850 level. Looking at the start, we could rally significantly, but at this point, I think it’s only a matter of time before we see sellers come back in because this relief rally is probably just that, a relief rally.

Looking at this chart, I think we have a lot of volatility ahead of us, and it’s also possible that we see a bit of a range form. Nonetheless, I think that’s probably the “best-case scenario” for Australia at the moment, as the Australian economy is suffering at the hands of China slowing down again, or perhaps I should say locking itself down, and potential concern when it comes to the demand for certain commodities.

The interest rate in America continues to climb, but now that we’ve had a little bit of a relief rally after the Federal Reserve raised to 75 basis points, any knock on effect of positivity is probably short-lived, and we will start to focus on the diversions of interest rates again. Inflation continues to run hot in the United States, and that is going to be a major problem. Granted, Australia does have a lot of a correlation between its currency and gold, but that is probably going to go by the wayside given enough time.

Look at this chart, if we were to break down below the recent low, that would be a very ugly turn of events. At that point, we go looking to the 0.68 level, and then perhaps open up a move down to the 0.66 level. On the upside, the 0.7250 level being broken could open up the possibility of the 0.75 level being targeted. The only thing I think you can count on in the Forex market right now is the fact that there is going to be a lot of volatility, so you need to keep your position size reasonable and recognizes that we are in a very unsettled environment as so much concern is found around the world when it comes to growth, inflation, and the recessions that are almost certainly coming down the road. I will only add to positions once they prove themselves.

Gold markets tried to go higher at the open on Monday but have found so many sellers out there that they have collapsed and slammed into the bottom of the overall range that we have been in for some time. 

This is because the 10-year yield in the United States broke above the 3.25%, and then went all the way to the 3.35% level. As long as yields continue to rally the way they have, gold will not be attractive, and therefore it’s a situation where you are going to see almost anything priced in US dollars face downward pressure.

The size of the candlestick is huge, and that suggests that we are going to continue to see a lot of negative pressure, and as long as that’s going to be the case, I just don’t see that buying gold will be doable. In fact, it’s not until we break above the $1880 level that I am going to consider trading gold; however, I must admit that I am more of a swing trader and less of a range-bound trader. If you are a range-bound trader, it might be worth trying to bet on a bounce, but you would have to keep a very close on the 10-year note.

If we break down from here, then it’s likely that we go down to the $1800 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that should be a massive support. However, if we turn around and break to the upside, it opens up the possibility of $1900, maybe $2000 after that. Ultimately, this is a market that is probably stuck, but it’s going to take all of its cues from the Federal Reserve.

At this point, the Federal Reserve is going to break something, but I don’t think it’s necessarily going to be the gold market. Yes, gold could fall apart from here, but unlike most other assets, gold has 5000 years of backing and as far as being worth something. Granted, if you are levered, that’s not going to do any good, but at this point, I think we got a scenario where the market should give you a nice buying opportunity eventually, but it might be at a lower level based on what I’m seeing in the greenback and of course the bond markets.

Our expectations suggest a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -1.00%. It settled at the price of $8.621 per million British thermal units, after declining during trading on Friday by – 2.66%. During the past week, natural gas rose in trading that witnessed high volatility throughout the week, by 2.87%.

Baker Hughes said US gas rigs were unchanged at 151 rigs, and various rigs remained at two. In the same period in 2021 there were 96 gas rigs and no various rigs in operation, in general there were 461 rigs in operation a year ago.

Elsewhere, Russian gas producer Gazprom (GAZP) said its gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine through the Sudga entry point were seen at 41.9 million cubic meters on Monday, unchanged from Sunday. Gazprom said Ukraine had rejected a request to supply gas through another major entry point, Sukhranovka.

After an explosion at the Freeport LNG terminal, the market remains unclear how the subsequent outage will affect inventories. Freeport officials indicated that the plant will remain closed for at least three weeks, meaning that the gas will be available for local consumption or will be stored.

Technically, the price is trying to search for a bullish bottom to take as a base that might help it gain the necessary positive momentum to regain its recovery and rise again. This is in light of its trading along major and minor bullish slope lines in the medium and short term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. With the continuation of the positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, we also notice during it that the arrival of the relative strength indicators to oversold areas.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading, provided that its stability returns above the resistance level 8.870, after which it will target again the pivotal resistance level 9.550.

I’m perfectly comfortable holding a short Euro position.

The Euro has broken down significantly during the trading session on Thursday as we have broken through the bottom of the rising wedge, showing signs of exhaustion. The 50 Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to and has offered quite a bit of dynamic resistance. The fact that we are closing at the bottom of the candlestick is also a sign that we could get a little bit of follow-through, so I do think that it is more likely than not to have quite a bit of a continuation.

If we break down through all of this, then we could go to a low visible 1.04 level, which was the targeted level from the rising wedge. The 1.04 level then would offer support as we had bounced from there previously. If we break it down below the 1.04 level, then it’s likely that the Euro will follow part. Ultimately, I think we could go to parity, especially considering that the European Union is in serious trouble. Initially, the ECB sounded somewhat hawkish, but by the time we got through the press conference, the Euro started to fall. Ultimately, the market has shown quite a bit of negativity, showing that the ECB is not likely to be able to tighten significantly, despite the fact that they have said that they would.

The size of the candlestick is rather negative, and it does suggest that there will be follow-through. Because of this, I’m perfectly comfortable holding a short Euro position. I do think that eventually, we get a major breakdown, but in the short term it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore I think volatility. I would expect a lot of volatility near the announcement, and then we should see a massive reaction.

If we were to turn around a break above the 1.08 level, we still need to break above the 1.09 level to finally turn things around. If we can break above the 1.09 level, then it’s likely that we could make a move all the way to the 1.12 level and threaten a complete reversal of the trend. That doesn’t seem to be very likely to happen, considering that we have been in such a major downtrend for quite some time.