I do believe that the longer-term outlook for crude oil is probably going to be very dependent on GDP figures, and central-bank policy. 

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied again on Monday, to break above the 200-Day EMA.
• This is a bullish sign, and at the end of the day we are hanging around the 50-Day EMA as well, perhaps trying to keep the market from forming the so-called “death cross.”
• There are a lot of different things going on in the crude oil market that you need to be aware of, and therefore it’s not exactly the easiest market right now to be involved in.

For example, we are near 2 of the biggest moving averages, but we also have a rising wedge that measures for a move to about $100 or so. In other words, the bullish pressure may be somewhat limited based on a little bit of chart reading. However, charts do not move markets, it’s the other way around.

The Iranians possibly being able to throw another 1 million barrels of crude oil into the market certainly could be negative. However, OPEC is also starting to talk about production cuts, because they believe that the “paper price” of crude oil does not represent the actual physical issues in the real world. That’s probably true because all one must do is look at the silver market to understand that being a possibility.

Recession and Monetary Tightening Likely to Bring Down Prices

Nonetheless, I believe that the upside move is probably somewhat limited in the short term because we must worry about the fact that economies around the world are slowing down, and that means that demand for crude oil will continue to fall. That doesn’t necessarily mean we need to break down significantly, just that it may put a bit of a drag on price.

In this scenario, I prefer to keep my position size rather small, and I recognize a trading crude oil right now is probably more of a gamble than anything else, but I do believe that the longer-term outlook for crude oil is probably going to be very dependent on GDP figures, and central-bank policy. As central bankers continue to tighten monetary policy, that should in theory bring down demand for crude oil as economies enter recessions. Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see an exhaustion candle that we can start to think about shorting.

Ready to trade the WTI/USD exchange rate? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading brokers to check out.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has broken out of a falling wedge on Tuesday to show signs of life again. By doing so, the market looks very likely to continue rallying, especially considering that we are closing at the very top of the candlestick. However, the real question at this point is whether or not this has any chance of taking off to the upside for an extended move.

Pay attention to global demand

There are some things to pay attention to at the moment that has nothing to do with the charts. The first thing of course is whether or not there is going to be global demand. If the global economy is in fact slowing down, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where demand for oil is going to pick up. After all, oil is the lifeblood of an economy, and as a result, a slowing economy will demand a lot less of it.

Another thing to think about is whether or not the Iranians are going to sign the nuclear deal because that will throw another 1 million barrels into the market on a daily basis. Furthermore, we also have to pay close attention to Saudi Arabia, which is now talking about cutting back on output, which could have prices could go higher. In other words, there’s a lot of uncertainty out there and therefore I think the only thing you can probably count on is a lot of volatility.

Looking at this chart, from a technical analysis standpoint, the falling wedge suggests that we could go to roughly $101, but we also have the 200 Day EMA sitting just above, and also have the 50 Day EMA dropping below the $100 level and racing toward that 200 Day EMA. That should be quite a bit of technical resistance as well.

• Focus on short-term charts, recognizing that there might be a short-term relief rally.
• There are a lot of issues out there that you need to pay close attention to, so therefore you need to be very cautious with your position sizing.
• Furthermore, pay attention to the US dollar, because if it starts to strengthen that can also work against the value of commodities such as crude oil which of course is priced in that same currency.

Ready to trade WTI/USD? Here are the best Oil trading brokers to choose from.

We have a lot to look at when it comes to this chart, so keep your position size tight, but it’s likely that we will see buyers.

• The German DAX Index rallied significantly on Tuesday to break through a short-term resistance barrier.
• The market is closing near the €13,922 level and has cleared the gap that I have marked on the chart.
• Furthermore, we have just wiped out the 61.8% Fibonacci level, so it does look like the DAX may have a bit further to go.

Is Germany Headed for a Recession?

The 200-day EMA sits near the €14,500 level, so that might be a target at this point. That is a large, round, psychologically significant figure as well, which is also worth paying attention to as well. Ultimately, the DAX seems to be ignoring the fact that Germany is going to head into a massive recession, but it is also possible that the traders in Germany are looking at the possibility of the ECB becoming as loose as possible. That is a very real possibility due to the fact that the economy is going to get so wrecked that it’s possible that the ECB will of course have to loosen monetary policy, and traders will celebrate the bad news like they do in New York.

Looking at this chart, you can also make an argument that if we were to turn around at this level and break down below the €13,600 level, the DAX could start to sell off again, perhaps looking to reach down to the 50-day EMA. We are still very much in a downtrend, but the move on Tuesday certainly suggests that we have a huge fight on our hands. The market has shown itself to be extraordinarily resilient, so it’s perhaps a situation where we make it a little bit of a pullback, as we are overbought. However, if we break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, it’s likely that we will continue to see momentum.

It’s likely that if other stock indices in the world start to fall off, the German index will almost certainly fall right along with it. The volume is starting to decline a bit, so you can make that argument as a negative sign as well. We have a lot to look at when it comes to this chart, so keep your position size tight, but it’s likely that we will see buyers.

Ready to trade the DAX in Forex? We’ve made a list of the best online CFD trading brokers worth trading with.

During yesterday’s trading, the price of gold recorded the psychological resistance level of 1800 dollars per ounce, the highest in more than a month. It settled around the price of 1794 dollars per ounce, awaiting the announcement of the important US inflation figures for the expectations of raising interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. XAU/USD gold prices have risen over the past two weeks, despite the Fed’s tightening and potential signs that inflation may be easing.

In general, the price of the yellow metal increased by about 5% from last month, to reduce its loss since the beginning of the year 2022 to date to about 1%. At the same time, the price of silver, the sister commodity of gold, was unable to hold its gains. Silver futures fell to $20.485 an ounce. Overall, the price of the white metal is up nearly 8% this month, although it’s still down about 12% over the year.

Will Gold be affected by consumer reports?

Investors are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July. The market expects the annual US inflation rate to fall to 8.7%, down from 9.1% in June. Core inflation, which is decimating the volatile food and energy sectors, is expected to rise to 6.1% on an annual basis. The biggest reason for the possible drop in price inflation is due to the collapse in crude oil and gasoline prices. US crude oil prices are paring their gains after the invasion, while the price of gasoline is hovering near $4 a gallon. Meanwhile, last July’s strong US jobs report may force the Federal Reserve to rethink its aggressive tightening efforts. This will allow gold to take advantage of lower interest rates, making yield-bearing assets less attractive.

Factors affecting the gold market

The US Treasury market overall rose on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield rising 3.6 basis points to 2.799. One-year yields rose 1.6 basis points to 3.29%, while 30-year yields rose one basis point to 3.008%. Also, the spread between the two-year and ten-year yield has widened to -50 basis points. Declining yields are a bullish trend for gold as it reduces the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding bullion.

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, fell to 106.29, from an opening at 106.44.
• The index is trading flat during the week, but is still up about 11% since the beginning of the year.
• A weaker price is beneficial for dollar-priced commodities because it makes them cheaper to buy for foreign investors.
• In other metals markets, copper futures settled at 3.5825 dollars per pound. Platinum futures fell to $931.10 an ounce. Palladium futures fell to $2,226.50 an ounce.

XAU/USD Gold Price Forecast Today:

The psychological resistance of 1800 dollars an ounce is still an important barrier for the bulls to control the direction of gold XAU/USD. As mentioned before, the stability above it will remain important to increase the technical buying deals towards the resistance levels of 1818 and 1835 dollars, respectively. These are levels that will support more bulls’ control over the direction of gold. The price of gold will remain in a limited range with an upward bias until the US inflation figures are announced later today, with positive and negative results for gold and vice versa. In general, I still prefer buying gold from every bearish level, and the closest support levels for gold are currently 1782 and 1760 dollars, respectively.

Ready to trade today’s Gold prediction? Here’s a list of some of the best Gold brokers to check out.

Rallies more likely than not will set up for selling opportunities for those who are patient enough to look for signs of exhaustion.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has finally broken down during the trading session on Thursday as the market is starting to price and the idea of a recession.
• The market looks very likely to continue seeing massive downward pressure.
• The demand is going to be determined by the fact that we are heading into a recession.

Looking to the $80 level

The US dollar strengthening would also put negative pressure on the oil markets, but at this point in time, it’s not even that for once. Now that we are well below the 200 Day EMA, and of course the bottom of that hammer that suggested massive support at the $90 level, it’s likely that crude oil goes looking to the $80 level over the next several weeks. Keep in mind that the jobs number comes out during the trading session on Friday, so there will be a bit of volatility due to that as well. Nonetheless, markets will continue to look through the prism of noise more than anything else, and as long as the market is noisy, it is one that people don’t want to be invested in with a large amount of money. The attitude of the crude markets shows just how erratic the world is at the moment.

I believe that by the end of the day Friday, we may have a lot of questions answered, but then again one would’ve thought that had been the case by now anyways. Demand seems to be dropping, and it appears that most traders believe this as well, because quite frankly OPEC has decided to barely budge it comes to output production. If they do that and we can’t see a rally in price, then that tells you most of what you need to know to begin with.

It is not until we break above the 200 Day EMA on a daily close that I would consider going long, and even then I think it’s probably unlikely that we would be in the “all clear” anytime soon. I think the only thing you can count on is a lot of noise and volatility, which unfortunately is something that we’ve had far too much of in financial markets as of late. Rallies more likely than not will set up for selling opportunities for those who are patient enough to look for signs of exhaustion.

Ready to trade WTI/USD? Here are the best Oil trading brokers to choose from.

I’m looking for an opportunity to fade this short-term bounce.

• The GBP/USD currency pair rallied a bit Monday to break above the 50-day EMA.
• The market looks very likely to continue seeing a little bit of upward pressure.
• We are getting rather close to the end of the range that we had been in, and it’s possible that we could see a little bit of resistance just above.
• The 1.24 level has been important more than once.

Fade the Rallies

The interest rates in America have been sliding, so that of course has a certain amount of negativity in the US dollar as well. Because of this, the British pound has gotten a little bit of a boost. That being said, there are still a lot of concerns out there and of course the English have their own issues as well. With this being the case, I think it’s more or less going to be a “fade the rally” type of situation. If we were to break down below the 1.21 level, then it’s likely that we drop down to the 1.20 level. The 1.20 level is an area that has been important more than once, so if we were to break down below there, it’s likely that the market then drops down to the 1.18 level.

The 1.18 level being broken to the downside would open up the possibility to see this market break down rather drastically. At that point, I would expect the British pound to go looking to the will .16 level, followed by the psychologically important 1.15 level. Anything below there would be a massive move just waiting to happen. I think we are more likely than not going to see a little bit of sideways back-and-forth action, but I don’t necessarily think that is going to be easy to break this market in general.

Keep an eye on the 10 year yield, because that has a lot to do with where we go next. As long as the 10-year yield doesn’t completely collapse, there will be a bit of fight left in the greenback. This will be especially true if we start to see people run towards the bond market for safety, which can change the overall attitude. Ultimately, I’m looking for an opportunity to fade this short-term bounce.

Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex trading platforms to check out.

I think we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior more than anything else so short-term trading probably is the best way to go.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market broke through 200-day EMA Monday, showing further signs of weakness.
• Because of this, the market is likely to continue seeing a bit of downward pressure, but whether or not we break down is a completely different question altogether.
• The $90 level underneath I believe is crucial, so we need to pay close attention to it. Breaking down below that level could open up the floodgates.

Fade Short-Term Rallies

The size of the candlestick is somewhat notable, as we have seen a pretty significant selloff, losing almost 5% during the day. Rallies at this point still look to be very suspicious at best, so I look at this as a “fade the short term rally” type of market. This is unless, of course, we get some type of shift in the attitude of the market. Until that’s the case, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of downward pressure, and it may only be a matter of time before the recession is going to causes traders to focus more on a lack of demand.

Because of this, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of trouble to get above the $100 level. That being said, if we were to break above the $100 level you would have to recognize that is the first serious shot across the bow for the bears. I don’t think that’s going to be the case though because we continue to see a lot of trouble out there. I believe that it is only a matter of time before we break down. If we break down below the $90 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the $80 level underneath.

On the other hand, if we were to break above the candlestick from Friday, that gets this market to the $105 level above. At this point, the 50-day EMA is starting to raise down to it, so that could set up for a nice fight. There is concern out there about the lack of demand but at the same time, there are also concerns about supply. In other words, I think we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior more than anything else so short-term trading probably is the best way to go.

Ready to trade the WTI/USD exchange rate? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out.

The euro is in freefall as we are seeing so much in the way of negativity globally, and when you have problems with energy, that’s not a good look for the continent.

The euro got absolutely clobbered on Tuesday, as we have broken through the 1.04 level quite handily. Furthermore, the market looks as if it has further to go, looking at the 1.02 level as the next target. When the market is more likely than not going to continue to see plenty of selling pressure, I do not like chasing the trade all the way down here. Instead, it becomes more of a “fade the rally” type of market, like anything else that has itself quoted in US dollars.

The 1.04 level above is a large figure that a lot of people would pay close attention to, especially as it had offered support a couple of times in the past. “Market memory” comes into the picture at that level, and I think there will be plenty of sellers. If we were to break above the 1.04 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the 1.06 level, where we would meet the 50-day EMA. The 50 Day EMA has broken lower for some time; therefore, I think it creates a significant amount of dynamic resistance.

Alternatively, we could just turn around and break below the 1.02 level. If we do, then the euro could drop down to the parity level, which is what my target is for the end of the summer. We are getting there much more quickly, so I think that we could even be talking about this by the end of the week. At this point, the euro is in freefall as we are seeing so much in the way of negativity globally, and when you have problems with energy, that’s not a good look for the continent.

It is not until we break above the 1.06 level that I would consider it a rally worth looking at. Even then, I would not be convinced that the market turned around until we broke above the 1.08 level. That would take a Herculean effort, so I would not hold my breath for that to happen anytime soon, so rallies are more likely than not going to offer nice selling opportunities to pick up “cheap US dollars.” The downtrend is fully ensconced, and quite frankly does not look like it’s changing anytime soon.

Commodities are struggling overall, and it looks like the sellers have finally come for this one.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell hard on Tuesday as traders came back from holiday in America. The market sliced through the crucial $100 level, so at this point, I think we have a serious problem when it comes to the overall uptrend. The 200-day EMA sits just above the $95 level, and I think we need to pay close attention to that level as well.

It seems as if the crude oil market is finally joining the rest of the commodity markets, which have been breaking down. The noisy behavior of the market has finally given way to volatility, and I think it’s only a matter of time before we break down low there. If we do break below the $95 level, then it will kick off massive selling. The fact that the market lost almost 10% at one point during the day does not bode well for the future of this market, and I think it’s only a matter of time before we see further downward pressure, as it looks like the lack of supply is not enough to have people trying to buy this market in this environment.

If the US dollar continues to strengthen quite drastically, it’s likely that we will see the crude oil market fall. Ultimately, I think rallies are to be sold into until we break above the $110 level, which is also where the 50-day EMA sits. That’s where we started the day on Tuesday, which looks pretty far away. Ultimately, I think short-term rallies will continue to be sold into at the first signs of exhaustion, and I think that short-term charts are probably what you want to focus on. If we were to turn around and break above the 50-day EMA on a daily close, then it’s likely that this market could go to the $120 level. That would obviously be a massive bullish move, but I don’t see that happening in this type of environment. With other commodity markets such as copper, wheat, and natural gas falling apart, it’s not a huge surprise that we have seen more downward pressure over here. Commodities are struggling overall, and it looks like the sellers have finally come for this one.

This is a market in that I think we will continue to see a lot of noisy volatility.

The US dollar rallied significantly on Tuesday to show strength yet again against emerging market currencies, in this case, the Brazilian real. The market is currently breaking above the 5.39 level and threatening the 5.40 area. This is a market where the trend is most decidedly to the upside, now that we have broken above a massive “W pattern.” This “W pattern” is a bullish sign, and if you remember the last time that I covered this pair, I had suggested that the recent pullback had been much shallower than the one before it, so it does suggest that we are getting ready to go higher. We have seen that happen already, and now it looks like we are getting ready to go toward the 5.70 level.

The 200-day EMA sits just below the 5.20 level and is rising. In other words, this is an area that should be supported, perhaps even defining the trend in general. That being said, the market is likely to continue to find plenty of buyers, and I think that we will continue the uptrend over the longer term. After all, the market is going to favor the US dollar when we have a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the overall flow of money, and of course the lack of growth around the world. After all, Brazil is a commodity economy, and commodities have an outsized effect on the BRL.

The US dollar has been strong against almost everything and you need to pay close attention to these emerging market currencies, because they can give you a bit of a “heads up” as to where we may be heading over the longer term. With this in mind, it looks like the US dollar is going to continue to strengthen, and I think we probably have plenty of runway to the upside.

If we were to break down below the 5.10 level, then we will threaten the 5.00 level, which is the “bottom of the market.” If we were to break down below there, then it would be a massive turnaround in this marketplace. Ultimately, this is a market in that I think we will continue to see a lot of noisy volatility.