The pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance point at 26,000.

Bullish View

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 26,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 22,500.
• Timeline: 2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 23,800 and a take-profit at 22,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 25,000.

The BTC/USD price made a bullish breakout as demand for cryptocurrencies rose. The pair crossed the important resistance point at 24,000, which was the highest point since July 30th of this year. Bitcoin has recovered by more than 36% from its lowest level this year.

Cryptocurrency Recovery Continues

Bitcoin has had a relatively difficult year as worries of high-interest rates rose. It dropped from last year’s high of almost $70,000 to about $18,000. Recently, however, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have staged a strong recovery, bringing their total market cap to over $1.1 trillion.

This recovery has happened at a time when the Federal Reserve has ramped up its rate hikes. The bank hiked interest rate hike by 0.75%, bringing the total year-to-date increase to 225 basis points. Analysts expect that the bank will continue hiking rates this year, especially after the strong US jobs data.

Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the American economy added over 528k jobs in July. The unemployment rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.5% while wages continued rising. As a result, some Fed officials, including Mary Daly hinted that the bank will hike rates by 0.50% in September.

The next key economic data to watch will be the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data. Economists expect the data to reveal that the country’s inflation slipped slightly in July as gasoline prices retreated.

The BTC/USD price also bounced back because of the strong correlation between technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. The Nasdaq 100 index, which is made up of the biggest tech companies, has risen by about 20% from the lowest level this year. This means that the index is exiting the bear market.

BTC/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD price has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few weeks. The pair has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. At the same time, the MACD has moved above the neutral point.

Notably, the pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern that is shown in green. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bullish sign. It has moved to between the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance point at 26,000. A drop below the support at 23,000 will invalidate the bullish view.

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The pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,000.

Bullish View

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 24,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 19,500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Sell the BTC/USD and set a take-profit at 19,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 22,500.

The BTC/USD pair made a bullish breakout last week even as more signs of a hawkish Federal Reserve emerged. Bitcoin rose above the symmetrical triangle pattern and retested the resistance at $22,000 for the first time in weeks. It is trading at 21,284, which is about 22% above the lowest level in June.

Risky Assets Recover

The BTC/USD pair rallied above 22,000 last week as risky assets made some recovery. Bitcoin rose as American equities, including those in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones bounced back. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose for the week while the fear and greed index moved from the fear zone.

Bitcoin rallied even as more signs emerged that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking interest rates in the upcoming meeting. On Wednesday, minutes by the FOMC revealed that most officials expect that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming meetings.

While most economic data from the US have been negative, numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the labor market is doing well. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6% while wages jumped by more than 5% in June.

The next key data to watch will be the important American consumer inflation data. Analysts expect the data to show that the headline CPI jumped to 8.8% in June while core inflation slipped slightly. Still, these numbers will likely have no major impact on the actions of the Federal Reserve.

The BTC/USD pair also bounced back as Celsius continued paying debts it owes to several companies. For example, it paid $440 million to Maker DAO. It also moved about $500 million to FTX, one of the biggest companies in the industry.

The other catalyst will be the upcoming bank earnings. Companies like Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs will publish their earnings.

BTC/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a recovery mode in the past few days. The pair managed to move above the symmetrical triangle that is shown in purple. It then move above the 25-day moving average and is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD has moved above the neutral point.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,000. A drop below the support at 20,000 will invalidate the bullish view.

Bitcoin rallied a bit Monday, but pales in comparison to the massive selling that we had seen previously. Because of this, I think it is only somewhat positive, and we more likely than not will have plenty of headwinds above that continue to work against the value of the market. If that’s going to be the case, then I am more than willing to fade rallies as they occur.

In the short term, the $23,000 level looks to be a significant barrier, one that the market has no real momentum to break above. Even if it did, I suspect that there is a major ceiling near the $28,000 level that extends to the $32,000 level. While Bitcoin itself is still the “gold standard” when it comes to crypto, the reality is that it is just as sensitive to Federal Reserve monetary policy as gold. For the longest time, the argument was that Bitcoin was going to be a “hedge against inflation.” That has certainly shown itself to not be true.

You can’t call it a store of wealth either, because quite frankly anything like that can’t lose half of its value every time something bad happens. This is not to say that the market will go higher over the longer term, because I do believe that it will. It’s just that you need to understand that you are speculating in a highly volatile asset class, and you need to understand the inherent risks in doing so.

If and when we break down below the $18,000 level, and I do believe that’s more of a “when” than “if” type of statement, we should go looking toward the $16,000 level, and eventually the $12,000 level. There are so many people waiting for the $12,000 level to be tested, I suspect that there will be a lot of inflow into this market when that happens. It’s also worth noting that the $12,000 level was crucial before, so I do anticipate that a lot of “market memory” will occur there, causing previous resistance to be support. Because of this, I think you have plenty of time to accumulate a position, but if you choose to do so quietly and slowly, that’s also a possibility here. Either way, I am not expecting Bitcoin or any crypto for that matter to break out to the upside anytime soon.

The outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next key support being at 15,000.

Bearish View

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 15,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 20,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 20,500 and a take-profit at 22,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 18,000.

The BTC/USD pair crash continued during the weekend as sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry waned. Bitcoin declined to a low of $17,700, which was the lowest level since 2020. This price was significantly lower than the all-time high of almost $70,000.

Bitcoin Sell-Off Accelerates

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued their sell-off as investors continued worrying about the new Fed policies and the soaring inflation. The market sentiment is equally negative across most asset classes.

The ongoing BTC crash coincides in a period when American stocks have been in a sharp decline. For example, the S&P 500 index officially moved to a bear market last week.

These assets declined as worries of a more hawkish Fed continued. In its interest rate decision last week, the Fed decided to hike interest rates by 0.75% for the first time in almost three decades. It also hinted that it will deliver another 0.75% or 0.50% in the coming month.

This hawkishness is happening at a time when investors are anticipating a recession as the American economy weakens. For example, data published last week revealed that the country’s building permits and housing starts declined sharply in May.

Meanwhile, the BTC/USD pair is falling as participants in the industry see red. Last week, it was reported that MicroStrategy was staring at a margin call as the value of Bitcoin holdings plummets. Last week, Celsius hired restructuring experts after a crisis in its operations emerged. There are fears that the crypto lender will soon go burst.

Three Arrows is another crypto company that has been in trouble. Once a $10 billion hedge fund, the company has seen the value of its holdings plummet in the past few months. There are worries that it won’t survive. Worse, other major players in the industry are going through similar issues.

BTC/USD Forecast

The BTC/USD continued its downward momentum as demand for the coin evaporated. This sell-off gained steam after the pair moved below the important support at 20,000. It also managed to move below 2017 high of 19,700.

Bitcoin remains below all moving averages, as shown in the daily chart below. At the same time, oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic have moved below the oversold level.

Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next key support being at 15,000. A move above the key resistance at 20,000 will signal more upside.

As long as we continue to see a lot of negativity out there, I just don’t see how suddenly Bitcoin is going to be the asset everybody wants. We’re still trying to figure out what it’s used for.

The Bitcoin market tried to rally on Friday but gave back gains rather quickly. Because of this, it looks as if it is ready to give up the $20,000 region as support, and I think that we will more than likely see a huge fight on our hands. If we get a daily close below the $20,000 level, it opens up Bitcoin to fresh selling. There is nothing on this chart that tells me that cannot happen, and I expected this to happen over the weekend.

Bitcoin is going to continue to be very noisy and in the crosshairs of a lot of short-sellers, because crypto itself is in a lot of trouble. So much fraud has been discovered recently that crypto has very little confidence. When you are trying to get larger investors involved, the one thing that you will need is confidence. That is lacking, and I don’t see it coming back anytime soon. Because of this, I fully anticipate that Bitcoin will not only break the $20,000 level but go much lower.

My current price target is somewhere around the $12,000 level. Yes, I recognize that could be a bit of a shocking number, but just five months ago somebody told you Bitcoin was going to challenge $20,000, you would not have believed them. We are about to enter another “crypto winter”, which means that nothing in crypto is going to work anytime soon. This is probably the best thing that could happen to the industry, because you cannot have so many fraud-related incidents and keep up confidence. In other words, you need to flush out a lot of the bad issues. As long as we continue to see a lot of negativity out there, I just don’t see how suddenly Bitcoin is going to be the asset everybody wants. We’re still trying to figure out what it’s used for.

Over the last several years, it has been a store of value, which is preposterous considering it can lose 80% of its value. It had also been thought of as a hedge against central bank printing, but the central banks have changed and this has wiped out Bitcoin. It was also thought of as an inflation hedge, which is clearly not the case. At this point, it’s just a speculative asset and should be treated as such.