Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the European Union, and we will have a lot of concerns when it comes to Germany. 

The German DAX Index fell a bit on Wednesday as we continue to hang about the €14,000 level. The €14,000 level also coincides quite nicely with the downtrend line that I have drawn on the chart, making up the top of the channel. Because of this, it makes a certain amount of sense that we will continue to struggle. Further exacerbating the idea of resistance is going to be that the 50-day EMA sits just above, so I do think that it is going to be somewhat difficult for the DAX to take off to the upside.

That being said, anything is possible and I would pay very close attention to this market if we did rally. Breaking above the highs of the last week or so would be a strong sign, perhaps opening up a move to the €14,500 level. After that, we have the 200-day EMA, currently sitting just below the €14,800 level. Breaking above all of that would obviously be a huge swing to the upside and would show a massive change in overall attitude.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, it allows the market to go much lower. At that point, the market will more likely than not try to get to the bottom of the overall channel. Ultimately, we are at an inflection point, so it’ll be worth noting where the next impulsive candlestick forms. Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the European Union, and we will have a lot of concerns when it comes to Germany. The German economy is the bellwether for the content, so you need to pay close attention to what’s going on here.

The ECB recently has suggested a 25 basis point rate hike is in the pipeline. That would in theory be bad for stocks, but at the moment you still have to keep in mind that the central banks probably have very little chance of getting overly tight, and I believe that traders are starting to bank on that. In that scenario, we may see a recovery in some of the stock indices. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on a significant red candlestick, then I would look at the 13,600 level as a target.

Crude oil markets do have a bad habit of getting very noisy and then making massive and impulsive moves.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market did very little on Tuesday as we continue to hang about the $110 level. The $110 level had previously been significant resistance, so for it to offer support would be expected. The markets have had a general uptrend built-in, as buyers have continued to be a little bit more aggressive than sellers. Furthermore, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $105 level and is rising. I think of it as a “dynamic trendline.”

You can also make an argument that we are in an up-trending channel, and it’s possible that the overall trend will continue in more of a grind than anything else. In fact, it’s not until we break above the $110 level that I would consider this a market that could be sold. In that scenario, it’s likely that the crude oil market would unwind, perhaps reaching toward the $95 level, maybe even the 200-day EMA underneath.

I do believe that dips will continue to attract a lot of attention, so if you are patient enough you should get an opportunity to get long of this market. In fact, think of it as value going forward. The market will continue to focus on demand and the lack of supply. At this point, the market is going to continue to look at this as a potential longer-term investment, and people are starting to look at the idea of exploding demand through the summer driving season.

If we do break down below the 200-day EMA, the market will then fall apart, perhaps dropping and changing the trend overall. That’s very unlikely, but it is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind. I do believe that given enough time the market will go looking to reach the highs again, probably sometime in the middle of July or August. This market is very choppy though, so it does make sense that we would see this market favor short-term traders with an upward bias. Crude oil markets do have a bad habit of getting very noisy and then making massive and impulsive moves. At this point though, it looks like it’s more back-and-forth chop than anything else.

While Bitcoin is supposed to be a way to operate outside of the financial system, it is now very much a part of it.

Bitcoin went back and forth on Tuesday as we continue to churn just below the $46,000 level. The market has recently broken out, pulled back to the 200-day EMA, and now is looking for some type of catalyst to go higher. Bitcoin does tend to lead the rest of the crypto markets around the world, so even if you are not trading Bitcoin, you need to be aware of what is going on here as it could affect the crypto of your choosing.

Bitcoin sitting on top of the 200-day EMA is a good sign, but we are desperately looking for some type of momentum. The 50-day EMA is at $43,157 and is starting to curl a little bit higher. If we can break above the 200-day EMA with the 50-day EMA, the market is likely to view that as yet another long-term signal to get long, as it would be the “golden cross” that longer-term traders pay attention to. If we do move higher, I believe that the next major barrier to deal with is the $50,000 level, which extends to the $51,000 level above there. Breaking above that then allows Bitcoin to become more “buy-and-hold” than it is at the moment.

It is probably worth noting that we just broke out of a complex W pattern, which is a good sign as well. Any dip at this point will more likely than not offer a buying opportunity as long as we can stay above the 50-day EMA, if not the $40,000 level. Breaking through all of that would be negative but right now it seems as if the market has enough momentum and interest to continue going higher. With that in mind, I believe that this is a market we will eventually see go much higher, perhaps allowing for some type of basing pattern to play out so that longer-term traders can accumulate more Bitcoin.

Pay attention to the Federal Reserve, because depending on how quickly they are looking to tighten monetary policy, it will have a major influence on risk appetite around the world. Remember, Bitcoin is now being traded by large institutions, so it is going to behave more like a typical Wall Street investment. While Bitcoin is supposed to be a way to operate outside of the financial system, it is now very much a part of it.