I have no interest in shorting this market, at least not until something fundamentally changes.

The USD/JPY rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, especially after the Jerome Powell speech. The US dollar has been rallying quite significantly against the Japanese yen, and it looks like we are ready to continue doing more of the same. I think it is probably only a matter of time before we reach the highest, and then perhaps go up to the ¥140 level. The ¥140 level course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will pay attention to.

Pulling back at this point in time only invites more buying, because the trend is still highly substantiated, and has been a major factor for so long. The 50-Day EMA sits below, near the ¥134.50 level. The market will continue to see that as a potential support level, and therefore I would be very interested in any drop toward that level. Even if we break down below there, I think there is plenty of support down to the ¥132 level. The ¥132 level has been important multiple times, and therefore it would not be surprising at all to see it serve as a floor.

Japanese Yen Likely to Continue Losing Value

• The Bank of Japan has repeatedly fought against rising interest rates, in an environment that demands them from multiple countries, and therefore it’s all about trying to work against the will of the market.
• This means that you would have to buy bonds in order to drive those yields down, which means you need to essentially print unlimited currency.
• By doing so, the market sees the Japanese yen lose value, as it is being flooded into the market.

On the other hand, we have the Federal Reserve looking to tighten monetary policy, which of course means that we are looking at a strengthening US dollar in general. We have been in an uptrend for quite some time, and it’s worth noting that the market has recently formed a “W pattern”, and that of course is a very good sign. In fact, we are still somewhat breaking out of the pattern, so a measured move could suggest that we could go as high as ¥140 relatively soon. Either way, I have no interest in shorting this market, at least not until something fundamentally changes. The Federal Reserve has reiterated that this trend should continue.

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The USD/INR has been able to sustain the higher values it established in the middle of last week and speculators will continue to be tested.

The Indian Rupee continues to lose ground to the USD in Forex and as of this morning a value of 79.8700 is being demonstrated.  Speculative conditions are ripe within the USD/INR currency pair as higher price action is likely causing technical traders to wonder if the 80.0000 mark is going to be challenged again. In the middle of July the USD/INR was able to trade above the 80.0000 reaching an apex of nearly 80.2200 temporarily on the 14^th of the month.

Even if the USD/INR is overbought it could go higher via Speculative Conditions

The middle of last week shook the USD/INR from a seemingly polite trading range, in which reversals lower were starting to signal evidence that the long term bullish streak from the forex pair might be slowing.  The short term trend however was proven wrong and nervous sentiment emerged again within financial institutions as whispers about more hawkish U.S Federal Reserve policy was discussed.

The publication of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes report last week indicated there is a disagreement within the U.S central bank regarding future steps to combat inflation. Troubling for traders is the fact the USD/INR is now within sight of all-time highs again, and that more fundamental news sparks will fly later this week.

Jackson Hole Talks and Preliminary GDP from U.S will affect the USD/INR this Week

The major central banks of the world this week will be getting together in Jackson Hole, Wyoming which is a symposium for financial heavyweights to discuss monetary policy. On Friday Fed Chairman Powell will speak. And before this, Thursday, the U.S will publish Preliminary GDP data. In other words traders of the USD/INR need to expect more volatility.

• If the 17.9000 mark is toppled and higher value is sustained the USD/INR could again challenge the 18.0000 in the near term.
• Behavioral sentiment is likely to remain nervous because of volatility which is certain to be caused because of policy speeches and economic data from the U.S later this week.

Traders of the USD/INR may be tempted to believe the forex pair has climbed too high and may attempt to sell. However, reversals lower in the short term will likely remain limited. Quick hitting trades are advised which are not overly ambitious today and tomorrow.

A vast sea of volatility will be demonstrated in the USD/INR later this week and risk management will be essential. The trend higher in the USD/INR may be hard to wager on for contrarians, but if support levels are tested in the short term looking for small moves upwards could prove worthwhile.

USD/INR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 79.9050

Current Support: 79.8300

High Target: 80.0300

Low Target: 79.7100

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We have no interest in trying to short this market because it is far too strong.

• The USD/JPY rallied a bit during the trading session again against the Japanese yen on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of upward momentum.
• The US dollar has been very strong for some time, and Monday was more of the same. 
• We did break above the shooting star from a couple of weeks ago at this level, so it does suggest that we have further to go at this point.

If we pull back from here, it’s likely that we only get an opportunity to start buying this market yet again. It’s also worth noting that the market has recently formed a “W pattern”, which is a bullish sign, and therefore it’s likely that we could continue to go much higher.

Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA rising, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see that offer a little bit of dynamic support. I do think that given enough time the US dollar will reach the ¥140 level, and it’s probably worth noting that the previously mentioned “W pattern” does measure for a move to that level. It’s also worth noting that there have been several green candlesticks in a row, and I think that it is probably only a matter of time before we get a pullback, but that pullback should be thought of as value. I have no interest in trying to short this market because it is far too strong.

Will things start to get ugly?

The “floor in the market” is probably close to the ¥132 level, which is the bottom of that “W pattern”, so a breakdown below that level would attract a certain amount of attention. In that scenario, things could get somewhat ugly, opening up a drop to the 200 Day EMA. The 200 Day EMA sits just below the ¥128 level, so that should be something to keep an eye on as well, as the market has seen so much in the way of reaction to that area previously. If we break it down below there, then it’s likely that the market goes down to the ¥120 level. We are in a longer-term uptrend, and therefore you need to keep that in the back of your mind as we have seen so much in the way of momentum.

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The pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 1.2400.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2292 and a take-profit at 1.2400.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2100.
• Timeline: 2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.2163 and a take-profit at 1.2080.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2250.

The GBP/USD price jumped to the highest level since August 2nd after the latest American inflation data. It rose to a high of 1.2275, which was about 2.2% above the lowest level this month. It has risen by 5.2% from the year-to-date low.

US Dollar Pulls Back

The GBP/USD price continued its recovery in the overnight session as the market reflected on the latest American inflation data. The numbers revealed that consumer prices declined broadly helped by the falling gasoline prices.

Gas prices moved from a high of $5 in June to $4.03 in July as crude oil prices declined. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has dropped from the year-to-date high of 135 to less than 105 in July. This is notable since gas prices have a strong part in broad inflation.

The headline consumer inflation dropped from 1.3% to 0.0% leading to a year-on-year gain of 8.5%. Inflation moved from the previous high of 9.1%. On the other hand, core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, declined from 0.7% to 0.3%.

The US dollar index crashed by more than 1% to $104.2, which was substantially lower than the year-to-date high of $109.30. Similarly, the yield of the 10-year yield dropped to 2.79% while the 5-year dropped to 2.59%.

The next key catalyst for the GBP/USD pair will be the upcoming US producer price index (PPI) data. Economists expect the data to show that the headline PPI dropped from 11.3% to 10.4% in June. On a month-on-month basis, they expect that the PPI dropped from 1.1%.

Core PPI is expected to have dropped from 8.2% to 7.6%.  The GBP/USD pair will also react to the upcoming US GDP data scheduled for Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the GBP/USD price bounced back after the latest US inflation data. It rose to a high of 1.2275, which was the highest level since August 2. On the four-hour chart, the pair rose to the first resistance point of the standard pivot point.

It also rose above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the MACD has continued rising. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 1.2400.

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The pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the first resistance level at 1.2450.

Bullish View

• Buy the GBP/USD and set a take-profit at 1.2450.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2150.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.2170 and a take-profit at 1.2100.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2250.

The GBP/USD price tilted upwards after the latest UK consumer price index data and testimony by Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair. It is trading at 1.2283, which is slightly above this week’s low of 1.2162.

BOE in a Fix

The GBP/USD price rose slightly after the latest inflation data from the UK. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the country’s consumer inflation rose to a multi-decade high of 9.1%. This was the highest level that consumer prices have surged in over 40 years.

The country’s inflation was driven by the soaring food and energy prices. Indeed, excluding the two, the country’s inflation declined from 6.2% to 5.9%. Analysts were expecting this inflation to drop to 6.0%.

Analysts expect that the country’s inflation will keep rising in the coming months. The Bank of England expects that inflation will rise to over 10% in the next few months.

Therefore, the Bank of England is in a fix considering that the country is now in a period of stagflation. Stagflation is a period when slow economic growth is accompanied by high inflation. As such, hiking interest rates as the BOE has pledged, will have a negative impact on the UK economy.

The GBP/USD pair also rose after the latest testimony by Jerome Powell. In his statement, Powell said that the bank will continue hiking interest rates until it sees that inflation was falling to its target at 2%. He also warned that these hikes will likely lead to a recession. Powell’s testimony will continue on Monday.

Investors will also focus on the latest flash manufacturing and services PMI data. Analysts expect the data to show that the UK and US PMIs remained above 50 even as the cost of doing business soared.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair formed a small hammer pattern on Wednesday. The lower side of this hammer pattern was at 1.2165, which was the lowest level in May. The pair is along the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also moved slightly above the Woodie pivot point that is shown in blue while the Stochastic Oscillator has moved slightly above the neutral point.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the first resistance level at 1.2450. A drop below the key support at 1.2160 will invalidate the bullish view.

BNB/USD was able to move to a five day high early this morning, and this incremental climb may attract speculative wagers on the buy side, or not.

BNB/USD is trading near the 333.5000 mark as of this writing.  Earlier this morning Binance Coin moved to a high not seen since the 10^th of May when BNB/USD actually hit the 338.2000 vicinity. The ability to break through highs seen on the 23^rd of May, when BNB/USD hit the 337.2500 ratio may get the pulse of speculative bulls racing, but it may attract skeptics too.

Before traders who remain optimists about the potential of buying BNB/USD, this if they consider the cryptocurrency in oversold territory, some words of warning: we are still within a bear market until proven otherwise.  The sudden rise in value of BNB/USD has come on the heels of an incremental climb which technically could be important if the broad cryptocurrency market were to suddenly turn around in mass, and start showing sincere price velocity upwards breaking resistance levels across the board, but it has not.

Skeptics who remain doubtful of BNB/USD and its price direction may view the recent climb higher as an opportunity to be sellers again. Traders are advised not be contrarian all of the time, sometimes moves higher can ignite into powerful trends in cryptocurrencies, but recent history has demonstrated that these moves upward have met stiff resistance and turned lower with dangerous volatility.

While bullish traders may respectfully disagree, BNB/USD would have to break the 340.0000 mark to really get folks to believe there is a chance that momentum is shifting. Technically, it can be argued that BNB/USD would actually have to break the 350.0000 ratio to verify a strong move higher, until this happens what we may be witnessing are mere short term reversals in a cryptocurrency market that remains choppy at best. The long term bearish trend remains intact for now and market conditions are still very fragile.

If BNB/USD falters and drops below the 333.0000 level near term another test of the 331.0000 mark could develop rapidly. Traders who want to sell and believe resistance will start to prove durable within the current price realm of Binance Coin are advised to use their risk taking tactics wisely. The cryptocurrency market remains volatile and sudden moves could develop quickly. The use of entry price orders and stop losses are needed. Selling BNB/USD and looking for lower values near term may be the speculative wager traders want to pursue still.

Binance Coin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 336.8100

Current Support: 331.9000

High Target: 340.2300

Low Target: 323.1000

AVAX/USD has produced volatility the past day, but the cryptocurrency has extended its run higher while also providing speculative fireworks.

The past day of trading in Avalanche has produced quick results, which are likely testing the fortitude of speculators who are pursuing AVAX/USD. In early trading today, Avalanche reversed lower after achieving a high yesterday of nearly 96.20000000, sinking to slightly below the 89.00000000 ratio a few hours ago. However, AVAX/USD quickly reversed higher after hitting this low and its bounce has taken the cryptocurrency above the 94.20000000 mark as of this writing.

Bullish technical traders may be fueled by an optimistic outlook as AVAX/USD is within sight of mid-February highs. On the 17^th of February AVAX/USD was trading above 98.00000000. Yes, on the 24^th of February Avalanche was trading a hair under the 64.50000000 mark, and then produced choppy trading higher until the 14^th of March when AVAX slumped again within sight of the 65.00000000 level. This is written as a warning to speculators who believe Avalanche will not slide lower again.

However, like the broad cryptocurrency market AVAX/USD has been able to produce a solid trajectory higher for almost two weeks.  Volatility is not extinct; there will be fast moves within AVAX/USD that is promised. Speculators need to understand Avalanche can move in a hurry and entry price orders are strongly advised.

If AVAX/USD is able to sustain its current price range and shows ability to keep trading above the 94.00000000 today, this may be a solid signal that speculators may be anticipating higher moves. The recent move upwards in AVAX/USD still has the cryptocurrency within the lower realms of its six month charts, but Avalanche is certainly showing signs of challenging highs within its three month pattern.

 If AVAX/USD picks up additional momentum and the 95.0000000 and 96.00000000 marks are suddenly challenged again, some optimistic bulls will likely target higher ratios like the 98.00000000 juncture. The broad cryptocurrency market and the major digital assets are showing signs of life, and are flirting with important mid-term highs. If sustained trading starts to make resistance levels vulnerable another leg up may come sooner rather than later, including in AVAX/USD.

Traders need to use risk management effectively.  After sustaining a serious bearish trend since November, AVAX/USD is beginning to tangle with important resistance and show enough strength to create anticipation of higher values. However, until AVAX/USD breaks above the 98.00000000 level, traders may remain suspicious about potential reversals lower also.

Avalanche Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 95.60000000

Current Support: 93.55000000

High Target: 98.90000000

Low Target: 88.85000000