Our expectations suggest a decline in the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in its last sessions by 0.23%, to gain about 76.65 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,803.47, after its decline during Thursday’s trading by -0.26%, in last week, the index declined slightly by -0.13%.

The US employment report showed an increase of 528,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, exceeding estimates of an increase of 250 thousand jobs, compared to a 398,000 increase in June. While the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, versus estimates of no change of 3.6% in a Bloomberg survey.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, stronger than the upwardly revised 0.4% increase in June, while maintaining the adjusted annual rate at 5.2% compared to expectations of a slowdown to 4.9%.

The unemployment rate has returned to its pre-pandemic lows and hourly wages have risen. Announcements of layoffs by a number of prominent companies had earlier raised fears that a strong labor market could be waning, opening the door to stronger expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve accepted, as part of its attempts to rein in inflation, which reached its highest level in 40 years.

Some analysts argue that the strong jobs data reinforces the notion that the economy can withstand the Fed’s monetary policy tightening without falling into a recession. Meanwhile, sharp declines in commodity prices, including oil, helped support the notion that inflation may be approaching its peak.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the index moves within the range of a bearish corrective price channel that limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. This is with the influx of negative signals on the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas of severe overbought operations. The index benefits from positive support due to its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in the index during its upcoming trading, as long as the pivotal resistance level 33,240 remains intact, to target the support level 31,885.

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Last week’s trading on natural gas prices ended lower on Friday, as the spot natural gas prices decreased in their recent trading at the intraday levels. The price closed on daily losses even by 4.18%, as it decreased by 263 points, after it also rose on Thursday by 14%, and Wednesday, slightly, by 0.24%.

However, the spot natural gas markets (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) opened their last trading on intraday levels on Monday, July 11th, with an increase due to a price gap and the presence of demand for gas during the weekend period.

Natural gas futures rebounded early Monday, as production fell and demand due to near-term weather remained high. However, the spot month fell by midday as traders digested expectations for a strong storage injection, and struggled to regain momentum.

Gas futures for August in Nymex eventually fell 1.3 cents on the day and settled at $5,510. The September contract fell by about half a cent to $5.482 / million British thermal units.

The results of a Bloomberg survey also showed that the average injection is estimated at 75 billion cubic feet. The forecast extended from 70 billion cubic feet at the minimum to 85 billion cubic feet at the maximum.

Through technical analysis, the price is expected to settle below the resistance level 5.665, amid the dominance of a bearish corrective wave in the short term, with the continuation of negative pressure for its trades.

We expect the index to return to decline during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in its last sessions by 1.05%, to add the index to it about 321.83 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 31,097.27, after it declined slightly during Thursday’s trading by -0.82 %. During the past week, the index fell by -1.28%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 15.3% drop in the first half of this year was the worst since 1962, pressured by continuing concerns that central banks’ moves to raise interest rates in response to persistently high inflation could lead to deflation in many advanced economies, while stocks closed On Friday’s gains ahead of the Independence Day holiday at the start of the week on July 4, the ISM report showed that high inflation remains a major problem for manufacturers, despite easing price pressures. Meanwhile, the new orders sub-index fell into contraction territory, confirming concerns about a slowing economy.

While the ISM index supports fears that severe Fed tightening will lead to a sharp slowdown in the economy, details suggest that the slowdown could lead to a faster decline in inflation than many now assume.

Investors this year have been concerned about the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cause a recession by raising its benchmark interest rate too quickly as it tries to tame high inflation.

Technically, the index’s rise was supported by the influx of positive signals by the relative strength indicators, but we note that it reached areas of oversaturation with purchases, and it is in exaggerated areas compared to the movement of the index, in light of the control of the short-term bearish corrective trend along a slope line, with the negative pressure continuing for its trading below hte simple moving average for the previous 50 days, so that the index is trying with this rise to compensate for some of its previous losses.

Therefore, we expect the index to return to decline during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance level 31,885.09 remains, especially if it is stable below the 31,000 level, to target again the support level 29,653.30.

Our expectations suggest a decline in the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight gains in its last sessions, by 0.05%, to gain about 16.08 points. It then settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,915.79, after falling in Monday’s trading by -1.05% .

Consumer discretionary goods, services and communication materials led the market higher, while real estate and energy were the only sectors that posted losses.

Solar stocks rose after President Joe Biden declared a state of emergency to address a shortage of solar cells and modules, allowing tariff-free access to the US solar market for Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, the White House said.

Despite no major economic data released on Monday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that US payrolls rose more-than-expected in May while the unemployment rate remained flat, adding to evidence that the world’s largest economy is unhealthy even as the Fed continues to raise interest rates.

Monday’s slight market rally comes after another tough week for US stocks, as investors will receive more important data on Friday with the release of inflation data for May. Economists expect the CPI to have risen 8.2% in May compared to the same month a year ago, which would be lower than the previous reading of 8.3%. However, markets would prefer to see inflation fall much faster.

Technically, the index is moving below the important resistance level 33,271.90, amid its trading within a descending corrective price channel. This limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. Negative pressures continue for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. In addition, we notice the start of negative signals on the RSI indicators, after they reached overbought areas.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in the index during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance 33.271.90 remains intact, to target the main support level 32,000.