Spot natural gas prices rose in the last trading at the intraday levels, to achieve new daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 1.18%. It settled at the price of $8.010 per million British thermal units, after rising during yesterday’s trading by 2.39 %.

After a multi-day drop in natural gas production slumped on Tuesday leading to a quick recovery in natural gas futures, NYMEX gas futures for September settled up 24.4 cents a day at $7.833/MMBtu. October futures were up 24.7 cents at $7.825.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg spot prices also regained some of the previous days’ losses despite thunderstorms expected to cool temperatures across large swathes of the United States. It rose about 5.5 cents to reach $7,900.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest monthly forecast that spot prices for natural gas at the Henry Hub are on track to average $7.54 per million British thermal units for the second half of 2022 before dropping to $5.10 in 2023 as production rises.

In its updated version of its short-term energy outlook published on Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration said prices on the national index averaged $7.28 in July. This is a sequential decline from average prices of $7.70 in June and $8.14 in May, due to the growing slack in the market after the extended outage at the Freeport LNG terminal, the researchers said.

Natural Gas Technical Outlook

Natural gas finds some support due to the arrival of the relative strength indicators to very oversold areas, in an exaggerated manner compared to the price movement. This suggests the beginning of a positive divergence in it, in light of the continuation of positive support due to its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. The price is under the control of the main bullish trend over the medium and short term along with a minor slope line.

Therefore, our expectations indicate an increase in natural gas during its upcoming trading, especially in the event of its stability returning above the level of 8.054, to target the pivotal resistance level 9.600 after that.

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The USD/SGD has held onto the upwards movement it created before going into the weekend as Monday has started and may entice traders.

The USD/SGD is hovering near the 1.38000 level as of this writing. Before going into the weekend, the USD/SGD currency pair had been seeing plenty of price activity near the 1.37500 ratio, which was until U.S economic data via Average Hourly Earnings came in stronger than expected.

While technical traders may dismiss the price action as a natural move higher as support was proven durable, fundamental traders certainly will point to behavioral sentiment across Forex which shows the USD got strong in most major currency pairs at nearly the exact moment. The move higher attained on Friday was a spike upwards which touched the 1.38340 level briefly.  It appears the USD/SGD currency pair may face rather choppy conditions moving forward this week.

Ride Upwards Mirrors Other Major Currencies as USD/SGD Climbs

The fact that the USD/SGD has essentially held its ground this morning and not reversed sharply lower, likely demonstrates nervous sentiment again is vast regarding the U.S Federal Reserve’s outlook regarding interest rates. On the 26^th of July the USD/SGD was trading near the 1.39000 ratio, this before slumping to a low of nearly 1.374700 momentarily this past Friday. The incremental selling of the USD/SGD likely took place the past tend days because financial houses were counting on a less hawkish U.S central bank.

Friday’s data from the U.S turned Forex on its head quickly and the USD/SGD reversal higher suddenly brought the currency pair in sight of upwards realms.  Yes, the USD/SGD could certainly reverse lower and traders should expect choppy conditions ahead this week as financial houses search for equilibrium, but behavioral sentiment may remain nervous about more interest hikes from the U.S than were expected only one week ago. If this proves to be the case the USD/SGD may continue to test the 1.38000 ratio and higher.

• Support near the 1.38000 should be watched closely for the USD/SGD currency pair in the short term. Durable support could spur on more buying of the USD/SGD as speculative perspectives look for more upside.
• Support near the 1.37500 if broken lower would be noteworthy, but may point to an oversold USD/SGD, which could create reversals higher near term.

USD/SGD Testing Higher Realms Again and Bulls may pursue Price Action

The USD/SGD will generate fast trading today.  Last Friday’s spike higher will certainly be tested by speculators who believe the Forex pair has been overbought, but strong lower moves are likely to create buying opportunities. The USD/SGD may find durable support within the 1.37900 to 1.37650 sphere. Traders must be careful with the amount of leverage they use, and take profit and stop loss orders are urged.

Singapore Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.38150

Current Support: 1.37850

High Target: 1.39090

Low Target: 1.37500

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains for the second day in a row, by 0.80%, to gain about 264.36 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 33,180.15, after rising slightly during Monday’s trading by 0.05 %.

The index advanced on Tuesday after trading lower early in the session, while government bond yields fell after the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth around the world including the United States.

The energy sector led the gainers, while the only loser was the consumer sector, weighed down by Target (TGT) cutting operating margin guidance for the second quarter of the fiscal year. Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) also closed lower.

The World Bank said on Tuesday that global economic growth is likely to lose momentum this year, with the Ukraine war, soaring inflation and rising interest rates, threatening what it now sees as an “unstable recovery”. Real GDP is now expected to rise by 2.9% in 2022, much less than the expected 4.1% rise in January, and the US economy is expected to expand by 2.5% this year, 1.2 percentage points lower than previous forecasts.

Technically, the index, despite its recent rises, remains stable below the important resistance level 33,271.90, amid its trading within the range of a bearish corrective price channel. It limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the negative pressure continuing for its trading below the simple moving average. For the previous 50 days we notice the start of negative signals in the RSIs, after forming what is known as negative divergence. This is a result of reaching highly overbought areas, in a much exaggerated way compared to the movement of the index, which means more negative pressure on the upcoming index trades.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a return to the index’s decline during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance level 33,271.90 remains intact, to target the main support level 32,000.

Our expectations remain that the index will return to the decline during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains for the third consecutive day, by 1.98%, to add to it about 48.38 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 31,928.63, after rising in Monday’s trading by 1.98%.

During the session, 18 of the 30 index components rose, and the stocks advanced by a percentage, McDonald’s Corp. by 2.74%, followed by Verizon Communications Inc. increased by 2.03%, then the share of International Business Machines Corp. by 2.01%.

Wednesday will mark the 100th trading day of 2022, a year likely to be remembered for the historic market turmoil as long-dominant tech stocks collapsed in what was their steepest decline since the dot-com crash.

The Dow is on track for the 100 worst trading days since 1970, with analysts blaming the inevitable burden of inflation that is being deducted from future corporate profits due to increased costs driving down their value in the present.

Meanwhile, stock futures rose slightly on Wednesday, signaling a positive start on Wall Street as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes to take a deeper look at the central bank’s plans to tighten monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point when it last met on May 4, the first time in 22 years that the Fed has raised interest rates by this amount and unveiled plans to begin shrinking its balance sheet next month. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also indicated that an additional 0.5% rate hike can be expected at the next meeting in June, and Wall Street expects another 0.5% increase in July.

Technically, the index’s rise comes with the influx of positive signals in the relative strength indicators. This is after it reached earlier areas of oversold activity, which gained the index some positive momentum due to its need to dispose of this oversold. It is also trying to compensate for part of what it incurred from previous losses. Its trading remained within a bearish corrective price channel limiting its previous trading in the short term, in addition to the continuation of the negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. It brought the index close to its recent rise from retesting the main resistance level 32,000.

Therefore, our expectations remain that the index will return to the decline during its upcoming trading, especially in the event that the resistance level 32,000 remains stable, to target the support level 30,547.50.

Our expectations still suggest a return to the index’s decline during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains for the second day in a row, by 0.08%, to gain 26.76 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,223.43, after rising by 1.47% in Friday’s trading, during the week. The index recorded losses of -2.14%, thus recording a series of weekly losses that continued for seven consecutive weeks, and it is the longest series of losses since July 2001.

Seventeen of the index’s 30 components rose, and the list of the most-percent-increasing stocks was topped by Chevron Corp. by 3.06%, followed by Merck & Co. Inc. by 2.11%, followed by Verizon Communications Inc. by 1.78%.

Chinese data casts a long shadow over the world’s second largest economy while a sharp decline in manufacturing in New York may be an early sign of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy to tackle rapidly rising inflation.

Five Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak on Tuesday, as traders prepare for a round of economic data that could provide hints about inflation and the Fed’s next move. With the retail sales index later in the day, economists expect an increase of 1.1% month over month. If the surge in retail sales is driven by price hikes or inflation, markets may worry that the Fed will become more hawkish or aggressive in raising interest rates.

Technically, the index with its recent rises is trying to compensate for part of what it incurred from previous losses. It is trying to drain some of its clear oversoldness with the relative strength indicators, especially with the start of the influx of positive signals from them. This happened due to the dominance of the bearish corrective trend and the index’s trading in a descending price channel range. This limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily), in addition to that, the negative pressure continues due to its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations still suggest a return to the index’s decline during its upcoming trading, especially in the event of its stability returning below the 32,000 support level, to target the support level 30,547.50 after that.

I do not have a scenario in which I would be willing to buy this market as things stand right now.

The euro went back and forth on Wednesday as the 1.05 level continues to offer a lot of support. This is a pair that has nowhere to be, so it is not really worth trading. The 1.06 level above does offer a little bit of resistance so if you are willing to stick to scalping, you may be able to trade this market between those two levels. However, if you are not able to sit in front of the computer at all times, it is difficult to imagine much of a setup.

If we do break above the 1.06 level, then I think the prudent thing is to wait for an opportunity to start shorting again. I would like to see a lot of exhaustion near the 1.08 level that I can take advantage of, as it is not only previous support, but it should have a certain amount of interest in that area due to the 50-day EMA. In general, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of downward pressure as the Eurozone struggles with almost everything at this point.

CPI numbers came out hotter than anticipated in the United States on Wednesday so that certainly suggests that the Federal Reserve is going to continue to be rather tight with its monetary policy, which will have the US dollar rising overall. Yields in America continue to rise, as the yields in Germany and other major European Union countries continue to offer almost no return, or in some cases offer negative returns. As long as that is going to be the case, it makes much more sense to own the greenback than it does to own the euro. Granted, there will be the occasional bounce, but that is to be sold into. In fact, I do not have a scenario in which I would be willing to buy this market as things stand right now.

To the downside, we have the area below the 1.05 level offering a lot of noise, that extends down to the 1.03 level. There is a lot of previous action in that general vicinity, so I think if we do break down, it will be more or less be a grind lower more than anything else.

We expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) rose in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve new daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 1.98%. It settled at the price of $7.367 per million British thermal units, after its rise in trading yesterday and in a session characterized by volatility at a rate of 3.73%.

Natural gas futures rebounded on Tuesday after losing streak in the previous two sessions, as traders assessed volatile US domestic production levels and new threats to global supplies amid reports that Russian forces have halted flows to Europe.

June gas futures contracts in Nymex settled at $7.385 per million British thermal units, up about 35.9 cents per day/day. It represents a stark reversal after the immediate month’s drop of nearly $2.00 over the previous two sessions. The July contract rose 36.1 cents on Tuesday to $7.467.

A combination of threats to economic growth from high inflation, high interest rates, and war-induced uncertainty in Ukraine raised the specter of a recession and rattled stock and commodity markets in recent days, as signs of increased production added to pressure on natural gas prices earlier in the day.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the research arm of the Department of Energy, released a monthly report on Tuesday that included forecasts about oil and gas production, demand and prices for the next few quarters.

The Energy Information Administration now expects natural gas prices to average $8.69 in the third quarter and $8.48 in the fourth, up 58% and 68%, respectively, from its forecast just one month ago.

One reason for the continued strength in natural gas prices is that supply is unlikely to catch up with demand this year, and storage levels will continue to fall. Natural gas is used for both heating and electricity production. Cooler temperatures this spring mean that more people are using gas for heating and an increasing amount of gas is being used for electricity. In previous years when gas prices rose, energy producers often switched their fuel source to coal, but coal supplies have declined in the United States, so power plants have fewer options.

Technically, the price received positive support as a result of the stability of the pivotal support level 6.345, which gained it some positive momentum. This came due to the main bullish trend in the medium term along a slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period.  The continuous positive pressure for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, while we notice the beginning of a positive crossover on the RSI indicators after reaching oversold areas.

We expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading, especially in the event that it breaches the current resistance 7.368, to target the first resistance levels at 8.054.

If we see Bitcoin and Ethereum start to sell off, then the rest of these markets will continue to fall as well. 

Litecoin fell a bit on Friday only to turn around and show signs of support. The market looks as if it is trying to form a bit of a hammer, which of course is a supportive-looking candlestick. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that the market continues to see sellers every time we rally, and Litecoin continues to show signs of downward momentum.

Furthermore, larger crypto markets are failing such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and as long as that is going to be the case, it is very likely that these other crypto assets will continue to fall. The market breaking down below the bottom on the hammer could kick this market down to lower levels, perhaps down to the $80 level. We have been in a downtrend for quite some time, and I just do not see that changing anytime soon.

That being said, if we do rally from here, I think there are going to be a couple of areas that we need to pay close attention to. The $100 level would be the first barrier that we need to overcome, but if we can break above there then we will go looking towards the $106 level, an area where we have seen resistance earlier this week. Breaking above that opens up the possibility of a move to the 50-day EMA, currently sitting at the $111.65 level and falling.

It is not until we break above all of those areas that I would consider going long of Litecoin, because it continues to look very vulnerable, and it is worth noting that each successive high has gone lower, the very epitome of a downtrend. The question now is whether or not we are going to kick-off to the downside, essentially cementing the idea of a descending triangle. If we do, I anticipate that Litecoin will go much lower, perhaps down to the $75 level, maybe even lower than that.

If we see Bitcoin and Ethereum start to sell off, then the rest of these markets will continue to fall as well. After all, altcoin markets tend to be highly sensitive to the overall risk profile of traders, with crypto being far out of the spectrum, and the smaller markets are on the very end of the risk appetite spectrum.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized at an increase in its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.34%. The price settled $6.888 per million British thermal units, as it rose in yesterday’s trading by 0.69% .

Natural gas prices soared in Europe after Russia stopped sending gas supplies to Poland, adding to already escalating geopolitical tensions and the first time Moscow has done so since it began invading Ukraine. This is what Russia demanded of “unfriendly countries”.

Poland’s gas reserves are 80%, but Bulgaria gets nearly 90% of its gas from Russia, and its only refinery is owned by a Russian company. Haley noted that the EU may now have emergency situations to help its affected members, but the bloc faces difficult times ahead.

However, the rally appears to have stalled early on Wednesday, as Asian markets appear to be more concerned about slowing demand from China after expanding lockdowns to combat the novel coronavirus outbreak.

News reports said that the capital, Beijing, imposed closures and expanded testing in an attempt to contain the outbreak of the epidemic in the capital. The shutdown of Shanghai, the country’s largest city and a major financial and commercial hub, has exacerbated concerns about China’s economic growth prospects.

Technically, the price is rising along a major bullish slope line in the medium term, supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, as shown in the attached chart for a daily time period. After it reached very oversold areas, we should start to see positive signals from it, which doubles the positive pressures on its upcoming trading.

Therefore, we expect more rise for natural gas during its upcoming trading, especially in case it breaches the current resistance 7.078, to target the pivotal resistance level 8.054.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in its last sessions and for the second day in a row, by 0.71%, to add the index to it about 249.59 points. It then went to settle at the end of trading at the level of 35,160.80, after its rise in trading on Tuesday by a rate of 1.45%.

Twenty-four of the 30 components of the index rose, advancing in percentage terms, with International Business Machines Corp. By 7.10%, the company reported earnings of $1.40 per share, topping estimates of $1.38 per share, on sales of $14.2 billion, and beating expectations of $13.85 billion.

It was followed by Procter & Gamble Co. by 2.68%, after the company reported earnings of $1.33 per share, topping estimates of $1.29 per share, on sales of $19.38 billion, above expectations of $18.73 billion. Then came Home Depot Inc. a rate of 2.38%.

In economic news, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan applications, fell 5% for the week ending April 15 on a seasonally adjusted basis, coming off of a 1.3% decline in the previous week.

“Ongoing concerns about rapid inflation and tighter monetary policy in the United States have continued to push Treasury yields higher, pushing mortgage rates to their highest level in more than a decade,” said Joel Kahn, associate vice president at the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Rates rose across the board for all types of loans,” he added.

The National Association of Realtors reported on Wednesday that the pace of US existing home sales fell 2.7% to 5.77 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in March from 5.93 million in February. The drop compared to the 5.78 million rate expected in a Bloomberg poll.

Technically, the index received a positive boost in its previous trading, as a result of its support for its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. Double the positive momentum to witness the index’s second consecutive rise in this image. All of this is coming in light of the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium term along a slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period.

Therefore, our expectations suggest more ascent for the index during its upcoming trading, especially in the event that it breaches the current resistance 35,372.0, to target the pivotal resistance level 36,565.70 immediately.