Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

• Risk 0.50%.
• None of yesterday’s buy or sell transactions were activated

Best selling entry points

Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33

• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

Entering a long position with a pending order from 17.98 levels

• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.74.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Turkish Lira Analysis

The Turkish Lira witnessed some decline during early trading this morning, although the pair remained within a limited trading range. Early this morning data showed an improvement in consumer confidence in Turkey, according to data from the country’s statistics authority. The consumer confidence index rose to 72.2 points in August, compared to 68 points last month. The index hit its highest level in five months. The good data is not expected to be reflected in a large way on the price of the lira, especially after the statements of Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday, in which he adhered to a stimulus monetary policy aimed at lowering the interest rate. The forecasts of the Turkish Central Bank, which were published earlier this month, showed that the dollar may rise to levels of 20 lira by the end of this year.

USD/TRY Technical Outlook

The USD/TRY traded near its highest levels during 2022, the pair continued to trade within a narrow trading range, which is shown on the chart. The pair is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The pair traded the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 18.08 and 17.98 levels, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.16 and 18.33, respectively. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still weak, as the pair is heading in a general bullish direction in general. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

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The USD/JPY currency pair is likely going to continue to see this area just below as support, and we will have to pay close attention to it. 

• The CPI number came out to 0.0% month over month on Wednesday morning, and the Core CPI figure came out at 0.3% month over month.
• This was lower than anticipated, so traders started to bet that the Federal Reserve is closer to pivoting than they originally thought.
• As a result, interest rates started to drop across the board, just exactly what the Japanese yen needs to see.

Market Likely to Go Higher in Long Term

Remember, the Bank of Japan continues to buy 10-year Japanese Government Bonds, keeping the interest rate down to the 0.25% level. Every time they have to buy more bonds, they are essentially “printing yen.” This is what is known as quantitative easing, while other central banks around the world are doing quantitative tightening. With that in mind, it’s essentially a “perfect setup” for this market to go higher over the long term as long as that’s going to be the situation. This is why the CPI number was so important for the day.

That being said, inflation is still running over three times what the Federal Reserve is aiming for, so they are still going to be aggressive, and we are already starting to see the US dollar pick up a little bit of momentum. You are not seeing it as much here as you are against the euro and the British pound, but we have bounced. With that being the case, the USD/JPY currency pair is likely going to continue to see this area just below as support, and we will have to pay close attention to it. If we do break down below the ¥132.50 level, it’s possible that we go looking to the ¥127.50 level.

The market breaking through all of that would of course be extraordinarily negative, and at that point in time I think the trend is over. On the upside, we have the 50-day EMA sitting at the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday which could be a little bit of a short-term technical barrier, but I feel that it is only a matter of time before we reach above that area. If and when we do, that could kick off the next move higher. At that point, I think we go looking toward the highs again, giving us an opportunity to test the ¥140 level.

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I think the only thing we can count on now is going to be a lot of noisy behavior, so you need to be cautious about your position sizing.

• The AUD/USD currency pair rallied significantly on Wednesday as the CPI number came out much cooler than anticipated.
• Because of this, the idea is that the Federal Reserve can start to pivot a bit, but it’s very unlikely to happen. After all, inflation is 3 ½ times what the Federal Reserve looks for, so they are going to continue to be very tight.

Strong Candlestick

The size of the candlestick is very strong, and it does suggest that we have a little further to go. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 200-day EMA, as it is now below the 0.72 level and grinding lower. I think that could be a bit of difficulty trying to hang onto, and I think it’s probably only going to offer a lot of trouble. Signs of exhaustion will get sold into, due to the fact that the US dollar continues to be highly sought after in general, especially as we have a major recession ahead of us.

If we do break above the 0.72 level, then possibly we could see this move all the way to the upside. At that point, we could see the 0.76 level. I just don’t see that happening though, and it’s likely that the market is going to run into exhaustion before we get there. If we break down below the 50-day EMA, that opens up the possibility of a drive down to the 0.69 level, which has been supported previously. Breaking below there opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.67 handle. That’s an area where we have been multiple times over the longer term, and it has offered a massive amount of support. Breaking below that level could open up a massive selloff and what would be a very negative turn of events for risk appetite overall.

I think the only thing we can count on now is going to be a lot of noisy behavior, so you need to be cautious about your position sizing. That’s probably sage advice for just about any market right now, but the Aussie does tend to be very noisy, so that makes quite a bit of sense. The US dollar seems to be trying to recover against the euro and the British pound, so we will see what happens here.

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This is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, with the 4200 level above could offering a bit of a barrier.

• The S&P 500 Index drifted a little bit on Tuesday as we are awaiting the CPI numbers on Wednesday.
• The CPI numbers will give us a bit of a hint as to where the Federal Reserve will be looking as far as monetary policy is concerned.
• Keep in mind that the market is likely to see a lot of noisy behavior ahead of this announcement, and then most certainly after it.

Keep an Eye on CPI

The Core CPI is going to be the measurement to watch and is expected to come in at a 0.5% month-over-month reading. If it comes in hotter than that, the S&P 500 will almost certainly get sold into. If we break down below the 4100 level, it’s likely that the market could go down to the 4000 handle. The 50-day EMA is sitting underneath there and could offer support as well, but it’s closer to the 4900 level.

This is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, with the 4200 level above could offering a bit of a barrier. If we were to somehow break above there, then it’s likely that we could go to the 4300 level. Keep in mind that we are at a major area of noise in the past, and an area where I think a lot of “market memory” could come into the picture. The size of the candle is neither here nor there, but the fact that we pulled back from a shooting star is not a huge surprise. I suppose you could take a look at this through the prism of a “hint”, as we had formed a hammer followed by a shooting star, and then actually had a bit of a body in this negative candlestick. However, if there is enough of a surprise from the announcement, that could cause the volatility to pick up in either direction.

When you look at the chart, you can see that I have attached a blue box where we had action previously, and I think this is what we are struggling with right now due to the “market memory” in that general vicinity. This is a market that continues to see a lot of interest, so it’ll come down to whether or not Wall Street thinks it’s going to get it’s fixed.

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This is all about whether or not the Wall Street traders will have the ability to get cheap or free money, because if they have to pay for it, then it suddenly becomes an issue.

• The NASDAQ 100 dipped lower to kick off the trading session on Tuesday, and then dropped down to the 13,000 level.
• The 13,000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, as it was also an area where we have seen a lot of support and resistance previously.

Algorithmic Traders Likely to Return

The 13,000 level being broken to the downside could send this market down to the 12250 level. The 50-day EMA is right there as well and rising, so I think it’s probably only a matter of time before the technical analysis comes back into the picture and a certain amount of algorithmic traders will jump into the market based on that as well, and the “market memory” that comes into the picture as we had seen resistance previously.

The 13,500 level above is resistance, so if we were to break above there, then it’s likely that the NASDAQ 100 could go looking to the 200-day EMA, which sits just above the 14,000 level. The market break above there would send the NASDAQ 100 higher, as it is the technical definition of a bullish run. Alternately, if we were to break down below the 50 Day EMA and the 12,250 level, then it could send this market much lower, perhaps down to the 11,500 level.

Technology stocks will get crushed if the CPI comes in hotter than anticipated, as people will start to price in the idea of higher interest rates, thereby putting a beating on technology stocks. I suspect that more than anything else, we will see a lot of volatility, which you could probably say about any market right now as there are so many crosscurrents. That’s going to be the story going forward, but it’s more likely than not that the Federal Reserve will have to remain tight for much longer than the beggars on Wall Street believe.

This is all about whether or not the Wall Street traders will have the ability to get cheap or free money, because if they have to pay for it, then it suddenly becomes an issue. This has nothing to do with the economy, but the CPI number will give you an idea as to whether or not we will be able to borrow money at almost no interest whatsoever.

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It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where you can put a bunch of money into this market right now.

The gold markets initially fell during the trading session on Thursday but then turned around to show signs of life at the bottom of the consolidation area. This is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore it’s going to continue to be difficult to deal with until we get through the CPI figure at the very least, due to the fact that the markets are paying close attention to the idea of inflation in the United States, and the Consumer Price Index will give you a “heads-up” as to what the Federal Reserve may have to do to fight inflationary problems.

If we were to turn around and break down below the $1830 level, it opens up a move down to the $1800 level. The $1800 level coincides with the year of the trendline and therefore challenges the entirety of the uptrend. If we break down below there, then it’s likely that the market will fall apart and go much lower. On the other hand, if we were determined to show signs of life, and break above the 50 Day EMA, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $1900 level, maybe even the $2000 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be noisy, and difficult to manage until we get a little bit of clarity, and perhaps more importantly, momentum.

The next couple of days will probably have a lot to do with where we go next, and at this point, it’s likely that we should see volatility, but it does look like we are trying to compress enough to get momentum into this market and go higher or lower. Keep in mind that the bond markets are trying to price the idea of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, meaning that they are expecting that the CPI numbers will be hotter than anticipated.

I suspect that by the end of the day Friday, we may have a bit of clarity going forward. Until that happens, until we break out of this little box that we are in, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where you can put a bunch of money into this market. Ultimately, gold markets are going to be heavily influenced by bond yields in America, and of course any comments coming on the Federal Reserve.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

– Risk 0.50%.

– The buy order of yesterday’s recommendation was activated, and the stop loss point was moved as the price moved in the direction of profit

Best buy entry points

Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.62 levels

– Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 14.46.

– Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.86 . levels

– The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.

– Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

Turkish lira declines after early data, the consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level in 12 years. This is with the rise in inflation significantly in the country, as it exceeded its highest levels in 20 years, after recording levels exceeding 61 percent. The weakness of the Turkish lira, which lost nearly 44 percent of its value over the past year, also contributed. pressure on consumer confidence. In general, the weak data contributed to the decline in living standards, making foreign imports more expensive for citizens. Financial expectations over the next year also fell to 63.9 points. The economic numbers and the data that continue to reflect the not good conditions in Turkey.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira declined slightly against the dollar during today’s trading, as the US dollar pair against the Turkish lira maintained its trading within a narrow trading range, which is evident on the chart. The pair is currently trying to surpass the descending trend line on the 240-minute time frame, shown on the chart. The pair also varied around the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, while trading above the same averages on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.60 and 14.45 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.68 and 14.75, respectively. We expect the lira to decline as long as the pair does not break the bottom recorded during last week. In the event of breaching 14.68 levels and closing the highest levels of the descending trend line, this will lead to an increase in the losses of the Turkish lira. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.