Today’s recommendation on the USD/TRY

• Risk 0.50%.
• None of yesterday’s buy or sell deals were activated

The best selling entry points

• Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 18.33 levels
• Place the stop loss point and close the lowest support levels 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit with the price moving by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best buy entry points

• Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 17.98 levels
• The best points for placing a stop loss close at 17.74 levels.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit with the price moving by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish Lira

The price of the Turkish lira declined against the dollar, during the early trading today, Thursday, where the pair is trading near the highest levels it recorded during 2022. Negative factors are coming together to put pressure on the price of the lira, given the Turkish Central Bank’s stimulus monetary policy going against the tight monetary policy followed by Central banks around the world. This together with an excessive inflation rate that the country has not seen for about a quarter of a century.

The expectations are still pessimistic as any positive effect of economic data or reports about the country’s economy will be swallowed. The latest reports revealed the recovery of tourism in the country after a period of stagnation that extended from the pandemic during 2020 until the middle of last year, recording good figures for the number of tourists in the country during the current period. It seems that the weakness of the lira is like a general attraction for a large number of tourists, as the number of foreign visitors increased by 53 percent on an annual basis during last July. Despite the good report, in the long term it will not have the great effect necessary to revive the Turkish lira from its weakness.

On the technical level, the USD/TRY rose to its highest level during 2022, the pair traded at the top of a narrow trading range and has been stable within it since the beginning of this week, which is illustrated by the chart. USD/TRY is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages respectively on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a long-term upward trend. The pair also traded above the support levels which are concentrated at the levels of 18.07 and 17.98 respectively, and trading below the resistance levels at 18.16 and 18.33 respectively.

The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still weak as the pair is moving in a generally upward direction. As every decline for the pair represents a good opportunity to buy, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation while maintaining capital management.

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We expect the pair to rise from the levels specified in the recommendation. 

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy trade of the recommendation was activated on Thursday, and a profit was made with closing half of the contracts with the introduction of the stop loss

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels 17.45
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 16.81 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.44.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.11

The Turkish lira fell during the early trading today, as the markets absorbed the impact of the data released yesterday, which showed the rise in inflation in the country to record levels approaching 80 percent. The CPI rose 78.6% during June compared to the same month last year, as rising energy imports and the cost of food and drink led the index’s rise. The bad economic data appears to be able to swallow any limited gains for the lira after any action by the Turkish government and the country’s central bank. Despite last week’s gains, the lira lost most of those gains, with bad data coming in. Analysts attributed the main flaw in the policy of the Turkish Central Bank, which insists on following a stimulus policy unlike most central banks around the world, which is reflected in the lira, which is struggling for stability despite the indirect and direct interventions of the Turkish Central in the market.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell against the US dollar, the pair exited to trade from a narrow range, which is shown in the ascending channel on the four-hour time frame shown on the provided chart, as it broke the upper boundary of the channel. At the same time, the pair settled above the support levels that are concentrated at 16.70 and 16.48 levels, respectively. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.11 and 17.40, respectively. The pair traded above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the bullish trend over the medium term. At the same time, the pair is trading the highest strong resistance levels represented in the 50 Fibonacci levels on the descending wave that started from 06-24-2022 until the top recorded on 06-27-2022. We expect the pair to rise from the levels specified in the recommendation. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

We expect the price to decline from the current levels before rising again.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy trade of the recommendation was activated yesterday, and half of the contracts were closed with the price moving towards the target

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels 17.45
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 16.63 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.28.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 16.99

The lira fell during early Wednesday trading, as it is set to lose nearly half of its gains recorded since the end of last week. It seems that fears of economic stagnation in the country are greater than the government measures announced by the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This limited the volume of loans to companies that own about one hundred thousand dollars, which pushed the lira to rise 5.2% before the start of a wave of major declines. In this regard, investors followed warnings from European banks, led by Barclays Bank and Deutsche Bank, that the new laws may cause damage to economic growth in Turkey. Especially amid fears that the new rules will reduce the volume of hard currency liquidity in the country. This may reflect on the volume of investments and the economy.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell against the US dollar, as the pair returned to the general upward trend. The pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 16.40 and 16.17 levels, respectively. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.77 and 17.10, respectively. The pair also traded below the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a decline in the medium term. The pair bounced from the moving average 50 on the daily time frame. At the same time, the pair is trading at strong resistance levels represented by 50 Fibonacci levels on the descending wave that started from 06-24-2022 until the top recorded on 06-27-2022. We expect the price to decline from the current levels before rising again from the levels specified in the recommendation. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buy or sell trades of the recommendation were activated yesterday

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 16.40 levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 16.66.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.00.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 15.99 levels
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 15.78.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 16.60

The Turkish lira continued its losses to become the worst performing currency during the current year. Investors are awaiting the Turkish Central Bank’s decision on interest rates today. No changes are expected to the monetary policy of the bank, which is under the effective control of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The bank has fixed the interest rate since last September, following a series of interest rate cuts that continued over several months. The Turkish Central Bank is going against the assumption of raising the interest rate to control the high inflation rate. During bad economic data that the country is suffering from, the lira is not expected to witness any improvement against the dollar, especially with the decline in the actual monetary reserves of foreign currencies owned by the Central Bank of Turkey.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell slightly against the dollar during today’s trading, as the lira reached the main resistance levels recorded at the end of last year’s trading. The pair also rose above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 16.00 and 15.85 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.11 and 18.39. We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially if the pair closed above the 16.40 resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

As the pair’s upward momentum continues, the way is open for the lira to reach 16.63 levels.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy trade of the target day recommendation was activated, and half of the contracts were closed at a profit with the price moving in the direction of the target and moving the stop loss point to enter.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from the current levels 15.85
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 15.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.05.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 16.00 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.11.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 15.58

The Turkish lira continues to decline against the dollar, which was ranked as the third worst currency this year. The currency suffered from the failure of the monetary policy of the Turkish Central Bank, which is under the control of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The lack of independence of the Turkish Central Bank’s decisions reduced the effectiveness of the tools that it could resort to amid bad economic data. As the expansion of the current account deficit coincided with the rise in the trade deficit, inflation reached unprecedented rates for decades, as it approached the levels of 70 percent. At the same time, the Turkish Central Bank insists not to raise the interest rate, as it was satisfied with fixing it after a series of declines. This is contrary to the economic consensus that raising interest rates contributes to lowering inflation rates and helps currencies to rise.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira continues to decline strongly against the dollar, as the pair continues to rise above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is also trading the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 15.38 and 15.30 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.00 and 16.40. As the pair’s upward momentum continues, the way is open for the lira to reach 16.63 levels, which it recorded at the end of last year, as it is the first major resistance level. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

I was not active in the buy or sell trades of yesterday’s recommendation

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a direct order from the current levels 15.85
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 15.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.05.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 16.00 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.11.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 15.58

The Turkish lira continues to fall against the dollar without any significant correction. Analysts suggest that the Turkish Central Bank has largely lifted its hand from the movement of the lira, especially with the combination of a few factors that forced it to do so. The most important of which is the lack of tools and solutions available in the hands of the bank in light of the administration’s adherence. The policy is not to raise the interest rate, which has been fixed since late last year. The decline in the Turkish Central Bank’s real reserve deterred the bank from intervening in the currency market, as it dumped more billions in the markets, which may end the already flailing cash reserve. Finally, the bad data, the latest of which was the rise in Turkey’s current account deficit, widened in March to $5.554 billion. The rise in the prices of energy imports raises concerns about the possibility of Ankara controlling inflation. This prompted traders and dealers in the local market to expect a major collapse in the price of the lira amid a question about the government’s ability to defend the levels of 16 pounds per dollar, as Reuters published in a report yesterday.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell strongly against the dollar, as the pair continued to rise above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is also trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 15.30 and 15.10, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.00 and 16.40. At the moment, the pair has crossed 15.29 levels, which represents the 61 Fibonacci level of the descending wave that recorded its top on 12-12-2021 and recorded its bottom on 12-23-2021. If the pound’s current decline continues, the way is open to reach 16.63 levels, which it recorded at the end of last year, as it is the first major resistance level. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized at a decline during the recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.78%. It settled at the price of $ 5.344 per million British thermal units, after declining in yesterday’s trading by an amount of -2.93%.

Natural gas futures stumbled in trading on Tuesday, as weather forecasts in the United States and abroad turned increasingly stable, while production rose as demand fell broadly amid the outbreak in China and the prospect of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine.

US production reached about 95.5 billion cubic feet on Tuesday, up more than 1 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Bloomberg data showed that this puts output near its highest levels in 2022 at around 96 billion cubic feet.

Reports from Ukrainian and Russian officials who say some progress has been made in ceasefire talks have eased concerns about oil and gas shortages caused by the war. This is putting negative pressure on prices in most commodity markets. However, the Associated Press reported that Russia continued its aggressive attacks across Ukraine on Tuesday.

Technically, the price declined due to the stability of the resistance level 5.710, to reap the profits of its previous rises, and to try to drain some of its clear overbought by the relative strength indicators. This is especially with the start of negative signals from them, to gather its positive forces that may help it recover and rise again.

All of this is due to the continuation of positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, and amid the dominance of the main bullish trend in the medium term along a slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period.

Therefore, we still expect the rise of natural gas to return during its upcoming trading, as long as the support level 4.954 remains intact, to target again the pivotal resistance level 5.710, in preparation for attacking it.