Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) resumed their decline in recent trading at intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -4.60%. It then went to settle at the price of $8.028 per million British thermal units, after rising during trading on Friday. By 1.52%, during the past week the price rose by 1.50% after the price reduced its early gains at the beginning of the week, while during the month of July the price rose sharply by 54.26%.

Strong demand for cooling in the US led to a strong advance in spot prices on Monday and Tuesday, but prices fell in the last two days of the week ahead of expectations of a lack of summer heat over the weekend, but that was not enough to erase early gains during the week .

Russia and Gas Production

Earlier this week, Kommersant daily reported on Monday, citing informed sources, that Russia increased its daily oil and gas condensate production in July by 2% from the previous month to 1.468 million tons, or 10.76 million barrels per day.

Russian oil production fell sharply after Moscow faced Western sanctions when it sent troops into neighboring Ukraine in February, but production has gradually begun to increase over the past months but is still below pre-sanction levels.

Russia has again reduced gas flows to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline over the past week from 40% to only 20% of its capacity. Russia’s state-owned Gazprom has blamed delays in equipment deliveries linked to Western sanctions imposed to protest the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, though analysts viewed the move as retaliation for the sanctions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, will by August fully cancel record production cuts since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Natural Gas Technical Forecast

Technically, the recent decline in natural gas comes as a result of the stability of the pivotal resistance level 9.60, to reap the profits of its previous rises. It also tries to gain positive momentum by searching for a bullish bottom to take as a base that might help it recover its recovery and rise again. It is trying to drain some of its saturation of the clear buying of the relative strength indicators, especially with the influx of negative signals from them.

All of this comes in light of the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium and short term along a slope line, as shown in the attached chart, with the continuation of positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations still suggest a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading, especially if the support level 8.054 remains intact, to target the pivotal resistance level 9.60 again.

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We expect the continuation of this corrective decline.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -1.44%. It settled at the price of $6.094 per million British thermal units, after falling slightly during trading on Friday. By -0.15%, during last week’s trading, the price incurred sharp losses for the second week in a row, by -11.51%.

Nymex July gas futures settled on Friday at $6,220/MMBtu, down just 1.9 cents on the day/day. This is after prices took a hit when it was verified that an outage at a major US export terminal could significantly increase inventories.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg spot gas prices also continued to decline amid mild temperatures in several parts of the US, dropping by 41.5 cents to settle at $5,980.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve officials maintained their hawkish rhetoric with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly saying on Friday that another 75 basis point rate hike in July is the “starting point”. But markets backed off bets on sharp interest rate hikes.

Russia finally seemed poised for its first sovereign debt default in decades, with some bondholders saying they did not receive late interest on Monday after the main repayment deadline expired the day before.

Technically, natural gas is trying in its recent trading to correct the main bullish trend in the medium term in light of its trading along a major bullish trend line. This is shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily), where the price suffers in its recent trading from the continuation of negative pressure. It is trading below the simple moving average for a period of 50 previous days. We notice in the midst of this that the RSI indicators reached oversold areas, exaggeratedly compared to the price movement.

Therefore, and amid successive losses for the price in its recent short-term trades, we expect the continuation of this corrective decline, especially throughout its stability below the resistance level of 6.361, to target the first important support levels at the price of 5.660.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses in a session characterized by volatility by -0.13%. It lost about -38.29 points and settled at the end of trading at the price of 29,888.79. This is after its increase in its decline in trading on Thursday amounted to -2.42 %. During the past week the index recorded losses for the third consecutive week, by -4.79%.

Global financial markets moved in an attempt to price the latest action from the Federal Reserve last week, when the Federal Reserve raised the US benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points. This dampened inflation expectations and possibly restoring some credibility to the institution, however the effect was on stock markets.

Next week’s data will reveal more information on growth rather than inflation as has been the case for the past two weeks.

Last Friday morning, investors heard Chairman Jerome Powell deliver an opening speech at the opening conference on the international roles of the US dollar. Mostly about the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, his comments did not offer new insights into the prospects for monetary policy.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neil Kashkari said in a blog Friday that he could support a 75 basis point rate hike in July. He wrote that a “prudent strategy” after the July meeting would be to continue raising interest rates by 50 basis points until inflation is “on course to fall” to 2%.

Technically, the index continues to decline along with a bearish corrective trend line in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). This is with the continuation of negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. In front of that we notice the beginning of a positive crossover on the RSI indicators, after reaching oversold areas, which helped limit the index’s recent losses.

Therefore, our expectations indicate that the index will continue to decline during its upcoming trading, as long as the main resistance 31,000 remains intact, to target the support level 28,958.

Our negative expectations are still surrounding the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses for the third consecutive day, by -2.73%, to lose the index towards -880.00 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 31,392.80, after its decline during Thursday’s trading by – 1.94%. During the past week, the index declined by -4.58%, to lose throughout the week -1,506.91 points.

Friday’s dip comes after shares were sold off Thursday afternoon, after the Labor Department reported Friday that its consumer price index rose 8.6% annually in May, above the expected 8.3% increase and the April result of 8.3%.

Some of the higher inflation has been driven by sharp price increases in the services sector, which accounts for the slight majority of the CPI. Consumers are shifting their spending away from the goods they bought for their homes during the pandemic, the ones they can get as the world reopens. Air ticket prices are up 38% year over year, while hotel prices are up 19%.

Markets had been hoping to see inflation abate. A rapid decline could have meant the Fed would likely slow the pace of rate hikes. Markets recently had a few days of hope that the Fed might soon slow down in raising rates, but This novel seems far fetched at the moment.

Technically, the short-term corrective bearish trend is dominated by the range of its price channel, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the influx of negative signals on the relative strength indicators. This is after they reached earlier areas of overbought areas, exaggeratedly compared to the movement of the index, The index continues to suffer from the continuous negative pressure, as it trades below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our negative expectations are still surrounding the index during its upcoming trading, especially throughout its stability below the 32,000 level, to target the first major support levels at 31,000.

ADA/USD has seen its value nosedive like other major cryptocurrencies in the past handful of days, and speculators who are wagering should remain cautious.

ADA/USD is trading slightly above 41 cents as of this writing.  The widespread carnage in the cryptocurrency markets has created a lack of confidence that is testing the willpower of almost all participants in the digital asset world. The price of Cardano was above 76 cents on the 8^th of May.

As ADA/USD moves lower and strong buyers remain in hiding, technical traders need to look at long term charts to consider potential problems (opportunities for those who want to remain thinking optimistically). One year charts will not do the trick for speculators at this point; five year charts should be gathered and considered.  ADA/USD is now challenging prices seen in early February of 2021, if Cardano’s price stumbles slightly more it will be within January 2021 value levels with the blink of an eye.

As a point of reference to illustrate the speed ADA/USD is moving (downward), I have had to revise the price Cardano is trading in the opening paragraph two times already. If a trader chooses to wager within the cryptocurrency market today they should use entry price orders to make sure their fills meet expectations. Without the use of entry orders a trader may find that they are correct about direction, but the price is far below the expected fill due to the speed of price velocity which exists in the current conditions, which may create the need for other value targets.

Fast conditions are not about to go away.  Yes, potentially there will be reversals upward in the broad cryptocurrency market which can be taken advantage of, but speculators betting on upside action should really consider that this may be described as spitting in the wind. The trend for the time being is not only bearish, but can be described as an avalanche. If ADA/USD breaks below the 40 cents level in the short term, values could potentially fall into the mid 30’s.

Risk taking tactics such as stop loss and take profits should certainly be used by speculators.  The use of leverage should be carefully considered in a conservative way because the price action in ADA/USD, like the broad cryptocurrency market remains dynamic and dangerous. Selling into this storm may be tempting and proven correct, but it will take courage and quick reactions. Good luck.

Cardano Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.43250000

Current Support: 0.40210000

High Target: 0.45850000

Low Target: 0.34960000

We expect the index to continue declining during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to decline during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses for the third consecutive day, by -1.99%, to lose about 653.67 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,245.71, after declining in Friday’s trading by -0.30%. 

Last week, the index suffered its longest streak of weekly losses since May 2019, and if it closes this week on a new low, it will be one of the worst consecutive weekly drops since 2002.

The sell-off in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday puts it on the right track to make the consensus of analysts a bearish trend, forming a bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs. There are also those who suggest that despite the choppy movement, the market is still a bit quiet so that the current lows are not the last.

The index broke below the March 8, 2022, closed at 32,632.64, hitting its lowest level since March 9, 2021.

Specific economic events that might have driven the sharp decline were noticeably absent, some news was citing a higher than previous survey of inflation expectations released by the Federal Reserve in New York.

Traders are likely to continue to face a challenging fundamental environment for risky assets. The Federal Reserve is about to begin to undo its balance sheet of nearly $9 trillion, and inflation continues to rise around 40-year highs. At the same time, the Chinese economy is slowing amid a strategy with tough measures to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, which could worsen global supply chains. Traders are also preparing to release the latest US inflation report this week.

Technically, the index confirmed its recent closing of breaking a major bullish trend line in the medium term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, considering the continuation of negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. This is amid the control of a bearish corrective wave in the long term. In addition, we notice the return of negative signals on the RSI indicators, despite their stability in oversold areas.

Therefore, we expect the index to continue declining during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance level 33,271.93, especially in case it breaks the current support 32,071.40, to target the support level 30,547.50 after that.