The pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key psychological level at 0.6800.

Bearish view

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6800.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6953.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 0.6935 and a take-profit at 0.7025.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6850.

The AUD/USD price retreated slightly ahead of the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming and the second estimate of US GDP data. It was trading at 0.6900, which was slightly below this week’s high of 0.6966.

Jackson Hole and US GDP data

The AUD/USD price has been in a bearish trend in the past two weeks because of the substantially strong US dollar. The dollar index managed to recover from this month’s low of about $104 to $109 after the mixed minutes by the Federal Reserve.

The minutes showed that the bank’s officials were still concerned about the soaring inflation being entrenched permanently in the economy. At the same time, some members worried that the bank was possibly hiking too fast.

Therefore, investors will focus on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium where Jerome Powell will be the headline speaker. His statement will be notable since it will be the first one since the US published July’s consumer inflation data.

The data showed that inflation dropped from 9.1% in June to about 8.7% in July this year as gasoline prices dropped. Prices moved below $4 for the first time in months, signaling that inflation will also drop in August.

Fed officials usually use the Jackson Hole event to reset expectations. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the AUD/USD pair will show some volatility as it goes on.

The pair will also react mildly to the second estimate of US GDP data for the second quarter. In July, data by the statistics agency showed that the country’s economy contracted by 0.8% in Q2, after slowing by 0.9% in the previous quarter. As a result, the country moved into a technical recession in the quarter. The data will not have a major impact on the pair.

AUD/USD forecast

The AUD/USD pair has been in a bearish trend in the past few days. In this period, it has moved below the standard pivot point and the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. At the same time, it has formed what looks like a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is usually a bearish sign. The pair has moved slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key psychological level at 0.6800. A move above the pivot point at 0.6955 will invalidate the bearish view.

Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex trading platforms to check out.

The pair will likely keep falling as bears target the first support of the standard pivot point at 19,780.

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 19,700.
• Add a stop-loss at 22,500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 21,800 and a take-profit at 22,500.
• Add a stop-loss at 20,000.

The BTC/USD price declined sharply as concerns about the global economy continued. Bitcoin dropped below the important psychological level of $21,000, which was sharply lower than this month’s high of over $25,000.

Volatility and US dollar rises

The BTC/USD price declined sharply in the overnight session as global volatility rose sharply. The closely watched CBOE volatility index soared by more than 17% in the overnight session. In the same period, the US dollar index surged to over $109, which was higher than this month’s low of about $104.

The dollar index has surged in the past few days as Federal Reserve officials warned that they will continue hiking interest rates and implementing quantitive tightening even as inflation cools. Last week’s minutes hinted that the bank will hike by 0.50% in the coming meeting.

The BTC/USD sell-off coincided with the sharp increase of US Treasury yields. The yield of the 10-year yield surged to above 3% for the first time in weeks. Bond yields have an inverse relationship with their price movements.

At the same time, American indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 all dropped by more than 2% in the overnight session.

The same sell-off happened in other assets as well. For example, the prices of key commodities like crude oil, copper, gold, and silver declined. The sell-off also happened after signs of a recession continued to emerge.

For example, the Chinese central bank decided to slash interest rates for the second time since May this year. This happened after a series of weak economic data from the country and signs that the housing market was struggling. In addition, the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that the country’s economy contracted at a faster pace than expected in 2020.

BTC/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD price found a strong resistance level at 25,258. It then dropped sharply and invalidated the ascending triangle pattern that is shown in purple. It moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. The pair moved below the standard pivot point.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the first support of the standard pivot point at 19,780. A move above the resistance point at 22,000 will invalidate the bearish view.

Ready to trade our free trading signals? We’ve made a list of the best Forex crypto brokers worth trading with.

The pair will likely stabilize on Monday and then resume the downward trend to 20,000.

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 20,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 23,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 22,000 and a take-profit at 23,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 21,000.

The BTC/USD price pulled back slightly after last week’s strong sell-off. The pair dropped from this month’s high of 25,168 to a low of 20,699 as the bullish momentum faded. It was trading at 21,460, giving Bitcoin a market cap of over $410 billion.

Strong US dollar and Tornado Cash crackdown

The BTC/USD pair continued its sell-off as the US dollar resumed its bullish trend. The US dollar index rose to $107 after the relatively hawkish minutes by the Federal Reserve. These minutes revealed that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming months to fight the elevated inflation.

As a result, US bond yields rose while stock indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices declined sharply and snapped a four-week winning streak. Bitcoin has a close correlation with American stocks. Other cryptocurrencies also declined, bringing the total market cap of cryptocurrencies to about $1 trillion.

The BTC/USD price also declined because of the rising risk of more regulations. This month, the Treasury Department decided to sanction Tornado Cash, a cryptocurrency mixer. The department accused it of helping launder over $7 billion worth of cryptocurrency since 2019.

Tornado Cash is a cryptocurrency mixer on the Ethereum blockchain. It works by obfuscating the origin, destination, and counterparties of transactions. It does this by receiving transactions and then mixes them before sending them to recipients. As a result, there are concerns that the regulators will get more tough on cryptocurrencies.

The BTC/USD price also pulled back as investors started taking profit considering that it managed to move from the year-to-date low of about 18,000 to 25,000. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience a pullback after an extended period of rallying. The next key catalyst for the pair will be the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.

BTC/USD forecast

The BTC/USD pair has been in a strong rebound since June this year. However, the pair struggled to move solidly above the important resistance at 25,000. Last week, it invalidated the ascending triangle pattern by moving below the diagonal line.

It also moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Now, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly above the oversold level. The awesome oscillator has also tilted upwards. Therefore, the pair will likely stabilize on Monday and then resume the downward trend to 20,000.

Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Here’s a list of some of the best crypto brokers to check out.

There is a likelihood that the pair will continue falling as sellers target this support level.

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2000.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2200.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2150 and a take-profit at 1.2250.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2050.

The GBP/USD price pulled back on Monday morning as investors prepared for a relatively busy week ahead for the British pound. It dropped to a low of 1.2100, which was the lowest level since August 10th of this year. This price was also sharply lower than this month’s high of 1.2291.

UK Inflation and Jobs Data

The GBP/USD pair came under intense pressure as investors waited for the upcoming economic data from the UK.

On Tuesday, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest jobs numbers from the country. Economists expect the data to show that the labor market continued tightening in June as the recovery continued.

Precisely, analysts expect that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8% in June this year. They also expect that the country’s employment change in the three months to June was 253k, lower than the previous 296k.

Additional data are expected to reveal that the average earnings excluding bonuses rose from 4.3% to 4.5%. With bonuses, analysts expect that the average earnings index rose by 4.5%.

The GBP/USD price will also react to the upcoming UK consumer and producer inflation data scheduled for Wednesday. Economists expect these numbers to reveal that the country’ consumer inflation continued surging in July as it hit 9.8%. Excluding the volatile food and energy products, analysts believe that inflation rose from 5.8% to 5.9%.

These numbers will come a few days after the Office of National Statistics (ONS) published relatively weak GDP numbers. The data showed that the country’s economy contracted in the second quarter as the cost of living escalated. It shrank by 0.1% quarter on quarter after it expanded by 0.8% in Q1. The economy shrank by 0.6% in June, which was better than the median estimate of 0.4%.

GBP/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the GBP/USD pair dropped after the UK published the latest GDP data. It retested the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level and moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

The pair has also found strong resistance at 1.2277, where it struggled to move above this month. As such, this could be a double-top pattern whose neckline is at 1.200.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will continue falling as sellers target this support level. A move above the resistance point at 1.2180 will invalidate the bearish view.

Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex trading platforms to check out.

The pair will likely have a bearish breakout in the coming days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.2025 and a take-profit at 1.1950.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2160.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2145 and a take-profit at 1.2250.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2050.

The GBP/USD price moved sideways on Wednesday as investors continued reacting to the upcoming US inflation data. The pair dropped to a low of 1.2067, which was lower than this month’s high of 1.3000.

US Inflation Data

The GBP/USD pair retreated slightly on Wednesday morning as the market refocused on the upcoming US inflation data. Inflation is an important part of the economy since it forms part of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.

Consumer and producer prices have been in a strong upward trend in the past few months. This growth was attributed to the rising price of fuel and the ongoing supply shortages. The lockdowns in China and the ongoing flight chaos have fueled higher prices.

Recently, however, there are signs that inflation has eased slightly in the past few weeks. For example, the price of gasoline has dropped to about $4 in most parts of the country. At the same time, many retailers like Target and Walmart have expressed concerns about their inventories.

Further, commodities like copper and iron ore have declined while house inventories has risen. It is against this backdrop that analysts expect that US inflation dropped modestly in July even though they expect it to remain above the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

Economists expect that the headline CPI dropped from 9.1% to 8.7% in July. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, they believe that inflation rose slightly. American bond yields retreated slightly ahead of these numbers. Yield of the 10-year government bonds declined to 2.7%.

Meanwhile, there are concerns about the cost of living in the UK. British households are expected to spend more than 4.4k pounds a year on energy, according to Cornwall Insight. This will be a major shock to households that have seen wages grow at a slower pace.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair declined slightly ahead of the latest US inflation data. It has moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the MACD has moved below the neutral point. The pair has also moved substantially below the important resistance point at 1.2291.

At the same time, it has formed a small head and shoulders pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely have a bearish breakout in the coming days. If this happens, the next key support point to watch will be at 1.1950.

Ready to trade our free trading signals? We’ve made a list of the best brokers to trade Forex worth using.

The pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support at 1.200.

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2000.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2230.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2200 and a take-profit at 1.2300.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2100.

The GBP/USD price remained under pressure during the Asian session as investors waited for the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) decision and US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. It is trading at 1.2152, which is a few points below this week’s high of 1.2292.

BoE Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of England will conclude its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Economists, judging by recent words of Andrew Bailey, anticipate that the bank will hike interest rates by 0.5%. If the bank does this, it will be the biggest increase in more than 27 years.

The BoE has been one of the most hawkish central banks this year. It has hiked rates by 0.25% in all its meetings since December. Analyts believe that the rate hike will be balanced in nature since he bank is aiming to tighten without causing a recession. They also expect that rates will peak at about 3%.

The BoE decision comes a week after the IMF downgraded its outlook for the economy and inflation. As a result, the agency recommended that the BOE should take tough measures even if it hit growth, jobs and wages in the short-term.

UK’s economic data have been mixed. The labor market is strong while wage growth has continued well. On the other hand, consumer confidence has slipped to the lowest level in decades while inflation has surged to 9.4%, the highest point in over three decades.

Historically, currencies tend to rally after a central bank hikes rates. However, in this case, a retreat is also possible since the 50 basis points hike has already been priced in.

The next key data to watch will be the upcoming US jobs data scheduled for Friday. Analysts expect the data to show that the labor market continued slowing down.

GBP/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has retreated sharply in the past few days. It dropped from a high of 1.2291 to a low of 1.2100. The current price is along the lower side of the ascending channel that is shown in green. It has also moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the neutral point at 50.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support at 1.200. A move above the resistance at 1.2225 will invalidate the bearish view.

Ready to trade our free daily Forex trading signals? We’ve shortlisted the best Forex trading brokers in the industry for you.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0100 and a take-profit at 1.000.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0200.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0225 and a take-profit at 1.0280.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0050.

The EUR/USD price rose sharply after the hawkish interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The pair rose to a high of 1.0210, which was the highest point since Tuesday. The price is about 1.40% below the highest level last week.

Federal Reserve rate decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its meeting on Wednesday and decided to hike interest rates by 75 basis points for the second straight meeting. This is the most aggressive that the bank has been at in decades.

The Fed has now hiked interest rates by 225 basis points as it struggles to lower inflation that has risen to the highest point in over 40 years. It is also struggling to lower this inflation without causing a recession.

Still, recent data show that the economy is deteriorating at a fast pace. For example, data published this week showed that pending home sales dropped by 8.6% in June after rising by 0.4% in the previous month. The decline was worse than the median estimate of -1.5%.

On Tuesday, data showed that new home sales declined by 8.1% after rising by 6.3% in May. These new home sales dropped from 642k to 590k. The House Price Index (HPI) declined from 1.5% to 1.4%, meaning that the sector is facing challenges.

The next key data to watch will be the first estimate of GDP data. Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded modestly by 1.5% in Q2 after falling by 1.6% in Q1. Therefore, the Fed is battling a situation known as stagflation, where slow growth coincides with a rising inflation.

The EUR/USD pair will react to the latest German consumer price index (CPI). Economists expect that the headline inflation rose from 0.1% to 0.6% on a MoM basis. The European Commission will also publish the latest business and consumer confidence data.

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD pair moved sideways after the latest Fed decision. On the 4H chart, the pair has moved slightly below the 25-day moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bearish divergence pattern. It is at the important support at 1.0132, which was the lowest level on July 22nd. The pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the parity level at 1.000.

Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best Forex brokers in the industry for you.

There is a sense that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices have seen their worst period this year.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 23,200 and a take-profit at 24,500.
• Add a stop-loss at 21,200.

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 21,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 23,500.

The BTC/USD crawled back during the American and Asian sessions even after the hawkish decision by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin retested the important resistance level at $23,000, which was still about 10% below the highest point last week.

Fed rate decision and US earnings

The Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting on Wednesday and did what most analysts were expecting. The bank decided to hike interest rate by another 0.75%, bringing its year-to-date hike increase to 225 basis points. The dot plot revealed most officials expect the rate hike cycle will continue in the coming months.

The Fed is facing the challenge of lowering inflation without causing a recession. Data published this month showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose to 9.1% in July, which was the highest point in over 4 decades.

Excluding the volatile food and energy products, inflation rose by almost 6%. Historically, risky assets like Bitcoin and stocks tend to underperform in a period when the Fed is extremely hawkish.

The BTC/USD pair rebound coincided with the cautious comeback of American stocks. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices rose even after earnings by big-tech companies like Alphabet and Microsoft missed analysts’ forecasts.

Most companies have published weak results. According to FactSet, companies have published the slowest earnings growth since 2020. Still, investors believe that the earnings are not as bad as expected. In the past few weeks, there have been a close correlation between stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, on-chain data show that exchanges are seeing higher demand in the past few days as investors buy the dip. There is a sense that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices have seen their worst period this year.

BTC/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair rose to a high of 24,318 last week. This was the highest point since June 13th. This week, the situation faded, which saw the price drop to about 20,733. It has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and is slightly above the lower side of the ascending channel. It has also formed a head and shoulders pattern.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved from the oversold level to 62. The pair will likely continue rebounding as buyers target last week’s high of 24,320.

Ready to trade Bitcoin USD? Here are the best crypto brokers to choose from.

It seems like bears are in the drivers’ seat and are targeting the parity level of 1.00.

Bearish View

• Sell the EUR/USD and set a take-profit at 1.000.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0300.
• Timeline: 1-4 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0310 and a take-profit at 1.0450.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0200.

The EUR/USD pair crashed to the lowest level in over 20 years as the outlook of the European economy worsened. The euro dropped to 1.0235, which was the lowest point since 2002. It has fallen by over 4% from its highest point in June this year.

European Economy in Turmoil

The European economy is in turmoil as the crisis in Ukraine continues. Most energy companies in the region that have long relied on cheap Russian gas are on life support.

Germany is on the verge of approving almost $10 billion in bailout for Uniper, one of the biggest energy players in the country. It will also provide bailout funds to Handelsblatt, another leading energy company.

These companies have seen their fundamentals worsen in the past few months as the cost of buying gas has surged. They have also been hurt by the decision by Russia to slash its natural gas flows to Europe. Worse, there is a high possibility that Russia will cut off flows to some European countries in the near term.

As a result, there are concerns that the European economy will experience its worst slowdown in decades. For one, many companies in the region have achieved success mostly because of cheap commodities like natural gas from Russia.

Therefore, the EUR/USD pair is crashing as investors anticipate another debt crisis in the region as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares for lift-off. Analysts expect that the bank will hike interest rates by 0.50% this month.

Looking ahead, the next key catalyst for the pair will be the upcoming minutes of the Federal Reserve. The minutes will provide more information about what the FOMC committee talked about in their June meeting. The pair will also react to the upcoming American jobs data.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair made a strong bearish breakout on Tuesday as risks of a recession rose. It is trading at 1.0260, which is slightly below the first support of the Woodie pivot point at 1.0300. The pair remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It also moved below the important support at 1.0347, which was the lowest point this year.

Therefore, it seems like bears are in the drivers’ seat and are targeting the parity level of 1.00. This will likely happen this month as the demand for the US dollar rises.

Technology stocks need low interest rates to attract growth-oriented traders, so this index is going to struggle.

The NASDAQ 100 fell hard again Friday as inflation numbers in the United States came and went. The announcement was very strong, and it’s likely that we will continue to see technology stocks get hammered, which will weigh upon the NASDAQ 100. The market had tried to break above the 13,000 level but pulled back rather significantly from the 50-day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that will be looking at the 11,600 as an area of support. If we could break it down below there, then it’s likely it will continue to go much lower.

If we do rally from here, then it’s likely that we will find sellers above yet again, as there’s no real reason to think that inflation is going to slow down, despite the fact that Wall Street had convinced itself that the rate of change of inflation was slowing down. In fact, one of the few things that kept the market somewhat afloat was the fact that the market had to close for the weekend.

Any rally at this point in time will end up being a selling opportunity, and I think we very well could see the NASDAQ 100 reach down to the 11,000 level. The NASDAQ 100 has been in bear territory for a while, so we should continue to see a lot of negativity. Given enough time, if we were to rally, I think the only move that would change attitudes toward the market would be if the Federal Reserve were to change its attitude, and perhaps even the NASDAQ 100 break above the 50-day EMA. Even then, there is a lot of noise between the 13,000 level and the 13,600 level. In other words, I think it’s going to continue to be a negative market that will be worth taking advantage of.

Eventually, there will be a bottom. However, we are nowhere near it at the moment, as the Federal Reserve continues to go on a tightening phase, as inflation is so high they don’t really have much of a choice. The best-case scenario might be going sideways, but even that seems like it’s probably asking for a lot considering the sentiment and the behavior of traders overall. Technology stocks need low interest rates to attract growth-oriented traders, so this index is going to struggle.