As things stand right now, I do believe that we are in the process of a longer-term bottoming pattern.

Will markets have rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Thursday as we have reached the $1870 level. This is an area that has been important previously, so it’s not you surprised to see that we have stopped here. If we can break above here, then it’s very possible the gold market looking to reach the $1900 level over the longer term. If that’s going to be the case, then is very likely that we will see the US dollar take a bit of a hit.

A lot of this could come down to risk appetite, so pay attention to what other markets are doing. If there seems to be a general concern about owning anything that has risk attached to it, that may or may not work for gold, depending on how traders are looking at it. I know it’s a bit confusing, but at the end of the day gold can be a lot of different things. Pay attention to bond markets, because of interest rates start to soar again, that will more likely than not put downward pressure on gold, and could cause a lot of headaches. Ultimately, I think this is a market that is going to continue to be difficult to hang onto for anything other than a longer-term investment. I see a lot of noise just above, but it certainly looks as if we are trying to build up enough bullish pressure to rally again.

On the downside, I see the $1840 level as a potential area of support, and therefore could be an area where you could reenter the market if we do pull back. I don’t have any interest in shorting gold, at least not in the meantime. I think it is probably only a matter of time before gold takes off toward the $2000 level, especially if yields continue to fall. After all, if people start buying bonds again, that will drive yields lower. The bond markets have been erratic, and unfortunately for the rest of us, that means chaos in our markets. Keep in mind that bond markets tend to drive where the rest of the world goes, so you really need to learn as much about them as you can. As things stand right now, I do believe that we are in the process of a longer-term bottoming pattern.

Fading rallies should continue to be the case.

Unlike most of the crypto market, Monero took off to the upside on Monday, gaining 15%. That being said, we still face a lot of resistance above, as the $180 level should continue to offer a bit of resistance. We did pull back from there, so it does suggest that perhaps this rally will be somewhat short-lived. After all, you need to keep in mind that Monero is a much smaller market than some of the others like Ethereum or Bitcoin, so a little bit of a volume surge could come into the picture.

Furthermore, you should also pay attention to the fact that the volume was lower than usual, meaning that the market was less liquid than usual. Ultimately, I think the market is one that you would continue to fade going forward on signs of exhaustion, with the $180 level being an obvious place where we have seen a lot of trouble. We have recently seen the 50-day EMA break below the 200-day EMA, forming the so-called “death cross.”

This is a market that will continue to follow the rest of crypto, although occasionally the lack of liquidity could make it change a bit. The candlestick is rather bullish, but it is probably only a matter of time before the massive selloff continues to attract resistance. The market had fallen apart quite drastically, and in a situation like this, it makes sense that we would see sellers come back in every time there is the slightest hint of trouble.

If the rest of crypto takes off, then it is possible that Monero might have an oversize move, but ultimately this is a situation where these altcoins will continue to be negative, at least until we see those bigger ones take off to the upside. The US dollar probably needs to stop as well, because as long as the US dollar continues to strengthen, it means that people are running away from risk, and you have to keep in mind that the price of Monero is quoted in those same US dollars, so the stronger that the greenback is, the less it will take to buy Monero. Fading rallies should continue to be the case.

This has been a nice bounce, but I think we probably see more selling.

The DAX had an explosive positive move during the trading session on Wednesday to reach towards the €14,500 level. This is an area that will attract a certain amount of attention, but at the end of the day, I do not think it is necessarily a sign that the market is going to shoot straight up in the air. It has been a very impressive bounce, but it must be noted that we are still recovering from a massive selloff. In other words, this could be a “bear market bounce”, which can be quite vicious.

I believe at this point if we break back down below the €14,000 level, the DAX will continue to reach down towards the lows. We may have sold off too quickly, and therefore we needed this bounce to bring back some type of equilibrium. Because of this, I believe it is worth noting that towards the end of the day we did start to sell off again, so this could be people jumping back into the short side of trading.

As far as buying is concerned, I would need to see this market clear the €15,000 level on a daily close, and perhaps even reach above the 200 Day EMA which is above there. If that were to happen, then obviously the DAX would continue to go higher, but with the situation in Ukraine dragging on, it is difficult to imagine a situation where the DAX simply takes off as it is the first place money goes looking to win in the European Union.

The ZEW announcement came out of Germany yesterday at a reading of -39, although it was expected to be +5. This shows you just how bad business confidence is right now in Germany, and that certainly could continue to weigh upon market confidence and therefore price. Given enough time, I think those questions need to be answered as well. The business confidence being so poor in Germany will have a negative effect on the stock market as well, and of course the global market slowing down means that we will have less exports coming out of Germany also. Remember, the DAX is highly levered to exports as most of the major companies are international conglomerates that sell their products all over the world. This has been a nice bounce, but I think we probably see more selling.