The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has broken out of a falling wedge on Tuesday to show signs of life again. By doing so, the market looks very likely to continue rallying, especially considering that we are closing at the very top of the candlestick. However, the real question at this point is whether or not this has any chance of taking off to the upside for an extended move.

Pay attention to global demand

There are some things to pay attention to at the moment that has nothing to do with the charts. The first thing of course is whether or not there is going to be global demand. If the global economy is in fact slowing down, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where demand for oil is going to pick up. After all, oil is the lifeblood of an economy, and as a result, a slowing economy will demand a lot less of it.

Another thing to think about is whether or not the Iranians are going to sign the nuclear deal because that will throw another 1 million barrels into the market on a daily basis. Furthermore, we also have to pay close attention to Saudi Arabia, which is now talking about cutting back on output, which could have prices could go higher. In other words, there’s a lot of uncertainty out there and therefore I think the only thing you can probably count on is a lot of volatility.

Looking at this chart, from a technical analysis standpoint, the falling wedge suggests that we could go to roughly $101, but we also have the 200 Day EMA sitting just above, and also have the 50 Day EMA dropping below the $100 level and racing toward that 200 Day EMA. That should be quite a bit of technical resistance as well.

• Focus on short-term charts, recognizing that there might be a short-term relief rally.
• There are a lot of issues out there that you need to pay close attention to, so therefore you need to be very cautious with your position sizing.
• Furthermore, pay attention to the US dollar, because if it starts to strengthen that can also work against the value of commodities such as crude oil which of course is priced in that same currency.

Ready to trade WTI/USD? Here are the best Oil trading brokers to choose from.

Rallies should continue to be a selling opportunity, especially as the 1.20 level above is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, 

• The GBP/USD pair has fallen significantly during the trading session on Friday as we ended the week.
• The market now looks likely to continue dropping given enough time, but ultimately, it’s a question of how quickly it’s going to happen. 
• The US dollar has been like a wrecking ball against almost everything, the British pound won’t be any different.
• The Bank of England has recently admitted that the British economy is almost certainly going into recession.

When you look at this chart, it’s obvious that the downtrend is very strong, and it will more likely than not continue. If we break down to a fresh, new low, then it’s likely we go down to the 1.15 level. The 1.15 level opens up the possibility of a move down the parity over the longer term. I think that’s a bit of a stretch, but I would also have said that 1.18 would be a stretch just a year ago. Rallies at this point in time should continue to be a selling opportunity, especially as the 1.20 level above is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that previously had a certain amount of support. That could bring in a certain amount of “market memory” in a market that continues to see a lot of reasons to drop.

How do interest rates affect the GBP/USD pair?

Keep in mind that the interest rates in America continue to climb in relation to other ones, so even if it does see a little bit of a pullback, the reality is that the spread between the United States and other economies should continue to cause downward pressure. In fact, it’s not until we can break above the 1.25 level, maybe even the 1.26 level that I would consider this a market that you can buy. Obviously, you need to see a little bit of a bounce in order to show signs of exhaustion or a continuation to start shorting yet again. I would not chase the trade in this area but would follow other traders. Ironically, one of the most obvious signals would be if the EUR/USD pair closes below parity on a daily close, even though it has nothing to do with this pair whatsoever. Either way, I have no interest in buying anytime soon and I would like to fade any signs of a bounce that fails.

Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex brokers to check out.

Resistance level at 0.7000 handle looks pivotal.

My previous signal on 2^nd August was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the price first reached the support level I had identified at 0.6913.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6999 or 0.7063.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6878 or 0.6797.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast on 2^nd August that the AUD/USD currency pair was showing a mixed technical picture: a medium-term symetrical bullish price channel, but choppy and is bearish price action over the short-term.

I thought the best approach would be hoping for the price to continue falling to the support level at 0.6913, and to enter a long trade if there is a firm bullish bounce there.

This did not pay off but it would not have got anyone into trouble either.

The technical picture today is somewhat different. The price chart below shows that the flow of the price has moved from being contained within a bullish price channel into a new bearish price channel. What is especially interesting about this channel is that the upper trend line is quite confluent with a key resistance level which itself is confluent with a major round number at 0.7000. It is clear that a short from a bearish reversal at 0.7000 could be an interesting trade, especially as the price has a lot of room to fall, with no key support until 0.6878 is reached.

The major event of the month these days is the US inflation data due today, it is quite likely the release will trigger a meaningful spike in the price, so scalpers might find some pips fading these spikes at key levels if any set up. I will repeat, a short trade at 0.7000 looks potentially very interesting.

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of US CPI data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD.

Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex trading platforms to check out.

Be very cautious about how much you put in at any one time, and only add as the trade works out for you.

• Gold markets rallied Friday to close out the week on the good foot.
• At this point, the market looks as if it is ready to go much higher, perhaps reaching the $1800 level.
• The 50-day EMA is sitting near the $1800 level, so it all comes together in order to show signs of exhaustion.

Is There Enough Momentum?

The last three days have been very strong, and therefore I think it shows that there is plenty of momentum. However, the $1800 level is a major area to get above, and I think it would take a lot of effort to clear it. The $1800 level is a major region to pay attention to, so if we were to clear the area, gold really should take.

On the other hand, if we see any signs of exhaustion between here and there, it’s probably a nice selling opportunity. Ultimately, this will come down to what we see in the interest rate markets, as the 10-year yield has fallen quite significantly over the last several days as well. A lot of this comes down to the noise coming out of the Federal Reserve meeting, which of course people continue to see as a potential pivot by the Fed. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case, and it would not take much from the Federal Reserve governors to spook the market.

Regardless, it’s the interest rates that drive where we go next. If interest rates fall, and typically is good for gold and vice versa. Regardless, I think this is a situation where you need to be cautious about your position size, as although we have a lot of momentum in one direction, gold tends to be very volatile so I would be cautious regardless as to which direction you are trading.

If we do break above the $1800 level, then I would become more of a “buy-and-hold” type of situation. At that point, the market is likely to go on the way to the $2000 level. Regardless, I think you need to be very cautious about how much you put in at any one time, and only add as the trade works out for you. If we were to somehow turn around a break below the $1680 level, that opens up some massive selling pressure to the downside.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

Gold futures failed to join the rally in global financial markets as investors flocked to stock markets after rising interest rates and increasing recession expectations. As such, the yellow metal failed to benefit from the weakness of the US dollar, but it was able to limit the damage on a wide range of factors. The price of XAU/USD gold fell today to the level of 1828 dollars an ounce before settling around the level of 1838 dollars an ounce. This was before an important event for the global financial markets, which is the testimony of the Governor of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

Gold prices rose more than 0.6% over the past week but have stabilized during the year. In the same way, the price of silver, the sister commodity to gold, is steady above the $21 level. In general, the price of the white metal has increased by nearly 3% during the past week, but it has decreased by more than 7% since the beginning of the year 2022 to date.

With the US stock market posting a surprise rally after last week’s disastrous performance, the demand for traditional safe-haven assets has fallen. However, market analysts believe that there are fundamental factors supporting gold as it is trading in the $1850 range an ounce. Commenting on this, Fouad Razakzadeh, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, wrote in a research note. “This includes safe haven flows amid the turmoil in the cryptocurrency markets and stock sell-offs over the past few months, as well as demand for an inflation hedge.”

Looking ahead, it may be difficult to predict its performance in the near and medium term. All of this may depend on upcoming inflation readings, interest rates, and China’s policies on COVID. There are other factors affecting the gold market. The US Treasury market was green across the board, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield rising 6.6 basis points to 3.305%. One-year yields rose 6.4 basis points to 2.92%, while 30-year yields jumped 8.6 basis points to 3.379%. The price of gold is generally sensitive to a higher interest rate environment because it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The dollar fell after the holiday trading session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, fell to 104.43, from an opening at 104.70. A weaker US dollar is good for dollar-priced commodities because it makes them cheaper to buy for foreign investors.

In other metals markets, copper futures rose to $4.026 a pound. And platinum futures advanced to $938.90 an ounce. Palladium futures rose to $1,860.50 an ounce.

Despite the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the continuation of international sanctions:

Switzerland imported gold from Russia for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, indicating that the industry’s attitude toward the country’s precious metals may decline. More than 3 tons of gold was shipped to Switzerland from Russia in May, according to data from the Swiss Federal Customs Administration. It was the first shipment between the two countries since February.

The shipments represented about 2% of gold imports to the main refining center last month. It may also represent a change in the concept of Russian bullion, which became a taboo after the invasion. Most refiners swore to accept new gold from Russia after the London Bullion Market Association removed the country’s manufacturers from its approved list. While this was seen as a de facto ban on Russian gold from the London market, one of the largest in the world, the rules do not prohibit the processing of Russian metals by other refineries. Switzerland is home to four major gold refineries, which handle two-thirds of the world’s gold.

In March, at least two large gold refineries refused to re-melt Russian bullion even though market rules allowed them to do so. Others, such as Argor-Heraeus SA, have said that they will accept refined products in Russia before 2022, as long as there are documents to show that doing so will not bring financial benefit to a Russian person or entity.

Not all five Swiss refineries were immediately suspended for delivering goods when contacted by Bloomberg News. Some buyers remain wary of Russia’s precious metals, including the pre-war bullion that is still tradable in Western markets. In palladium, it caused a constant dislocation between spot prices in London and futures in New York, due to the greater risk of receiving bullion from Russia in the latter. Switzerland has been importing small amounts of palladium from Russia – the world’s largest mineral miner – since April.

XAU/USD gold price forecast today:

The price of gold today is still facing downward pressure, and it may remain so until the markets and investors react to what will be mentioned in the content of the testimony of the US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell. It will have a strong and direct impact on the performance of the US dollar and, accordingly, the price of gold. The downward trend in the price of gold may increase in strength if prices move towards the support levels 1822 and 1810, respectively, and from the last level and less than it, the appetite for buying gold will be considered.

Bulls will return to control of the XAU/USD gold price if prices return to the vicinity of the resistance levels of 1855 and 1877 dollars, respectively.

It is possible that we will get a little bit of a recovery due to the fact that the Federal Reserve does have that statement during the day on Wednesday, but do not be surprised if it gets sold into.

The S&P 500 fell again on Tuesday to show signs of weakness yet again. At this point, the market is likely to continue looking at the 3700 level as a potential short-term target. If we can break it down below there, and most certainly we will, the market will continue to go much lower. There is nothing on this chart that screams “I should be buying.” Unfortunately, my email account has been blown up by several people asking me what to do about massive losses, that got in “when the stock market looked cheap.”

The thing about assets that are cheap, is that they can get cheaper. (Just take a look at Ethereum as an example.) I do believe that it is probably only a matter of time before we do get some type of bounce, but that bounce will only be an opportunity for people who are stuck in horrible positions to get rid of them again. After all, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of reasons to fall, and although the 3700 level has offered a little bit of short-term support, quite frankly it’s likely that we will eventually see that level broken down.

That being said, the market is oversold at this point, so I think a bounce does make quite a bit of sense. That bounce should give us an opportunity to short this market again, and you should note that the Federal Reserve has a two-day meeting going on, so there could be statements or noise around the announcement that causes this market to go insane as well.

At this point, if we do rally from here, then it’s likely that we will see sellers get back into the market in order to take advantage of a short-selling opportunity. The 4100 level looks to be the ceiling right now, and with the 50 Day EMA breaking down below there, it’s a matter of time before the sellers jump into this market. It is possible that we will get a little bit of a recovery due to the fact that the Federal Reserve does have that statement during the day on Wednesday, but do not be surprised if it gets sold into. There are whispered numbers of a three-quarter percent interest rate hike being announced.

Be prepared for continued noisy behavior.

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday to reach the 1.38 handle against the Singapore dollar. However, the market has pulled back rather significantly during the trading session, as interest rates in the United States initially jumped above 3%, and then fell rather drastically. This is a market that is very volatile in general, and the USD/SGD is going to behave just as many of the other markets around the world.

The US dollar has enjoyed a lot of strength as of late, but the Singapore dollar has been even stronger. It will be interesting to see this plays out but currently, it appears that a lot of money in Asia is running toward Singapore for safety. The Singapore dollar can be thought of like the “Swiss franc of Asia”, so therefore it does behave quite a bit like the franc.

I believe it this point it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior overall, and therefore I think we are going to reenter the previous consolidation area, between 1.3666 and 1.3766. The 50 Day EMA sits right in the middle of that, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is also in the midst of all of this noise as well.

Keep in mind this pair typically does not move rapidly, so it’s not a huge surprise at all to see it chop around. The selloff had been rather brutal previously, but if the US dollar continues to see a lot of upward momentum and other currency pairs, one would think that it is only a matter of time before we see it here as well.

If we were to break down below the 1.3650 level, then the USD/SGD pair will test the 200 Day EMA, which is currently just above the 1.36 level. If the market was to break down below there, then it signifies a longer-term downtrend could be forming. If that’s going to be the case, then you need to look around the world to see how the greenback is behaving, because you may see it sell off against everything else as well. It’s worth noting that this pair does tend to “buck the trend” when it comes to the greenback at times, so pay attention.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buy or sell trades of the recommendation were activated yesterday

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from levels of 15.85
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 15.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.05.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 16.00 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.11.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 15.58

The direction of the USD/TRY is moving in one direction without a correction. It is a matter of time before the dollar reaches levels of 16 lira in light of the failure of the Turkish Central Bank’s tools under pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as the bank cut the interest rate by 500 basis points over several months until late last year, before announcing the fixing of the interest rate at levels of 14 percent in January. This caused the lira to lose 44% of its value against the dollar. Since there is no new event that may be expected with the conduct of Russian military operations in Ukraine, which is one of the biggest reasons that pushed global inflation to record levels and raised the price of energy strongly, which contributed to raising inflation in the country to levels of 70 percent. Therefore, experts do not expect the lira to witness any corrections, as it records on a daily basis a new low against the dollar.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira continues to decline strongly against the dollar, as the pair is based on the rising trend line on the four-hour time frame, shown on the chart, and the pair continues to rise above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well. The pair is also trading the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 15.73 and 15.85 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.00 and 16.40. As the pair’s upward momentum continues, the way is open for the lira to reach 16.63 levels, which it recorded at the end of last year, as it is the first major resistance level. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.