The USD/CAD has reversed from early morning lows, and support for the moment appears rather solid and traders have important choices to make.

The USD/CAD remains within the lower realms of its range taking into consideration a one month chart.  However, this morning’s early trading broke highs seen yesterday and Friday. The USD/CAD currency pair is around 1.28700 as of this writing and is challenging values seen on Thursday of last week. When the Bank of Canada increased its interest rate on the 14^th of July the USD/CAD was trading near 1.32200 momentarily, after the hike a low of nearly 1.28300 was seen on the 23^rd.

U.S Interest Rate Hike was Anticipated and the USD/CAD Remains Turbulent

The lows seen on the 23^rd of July were penetrated on the 28^th of July when the U.S Fed hiked their interest rate, and yesterday the USD/CAD hit a monthly low of nearly 1.27675. The last time this value had been seen was on the 10^th of June. The move higher in the USD/CAD since hitting yesterday’s low needs to be looked at by traders and may prove suspicious in some eyes.

• The Bank of Canada has made it clear they intend on being hawkish and the early September monetary meeting is likely to produce another hike higher.
• Matching the U.S Fed’s moves seems to be the intent of the Bank of Canada to protect the Canadian dollar.
• Commodity prices in the energy sector and grains factor into the behavioral sentiment for USD/CAD trading.

Resistance levels should be watched closely in the short term. If the 1.28750 level begins to look durable it may set off another round of selling for the USD/CAD and begin to challenge support levels again. The move higher after yesterday’s low was seen, was likely a reaction to dropping below the 1.28000 level for the first time in a sustained manner since the second week of June.

Risk Management is Necessary as these Lower Realms of the USD/CAD get Tested

Having tested lows not seen in a month and half yesterday, the reversal higher can be viewed as a natural reaction. Traders need to be careful and should use their risk taking tactics in a thought out manner, but if current resistance levels prove strong, selling the USD/CAD and looking for the 1.28600 mark to be challenged again the in the short term may be a solid wager.

If the USD/CAD moves below 1.28600 and the 1.28500 then becomes vulnerable, lower depths could come into view which were seen yesterday. The USD/CAD does have the potential to produce volatile results, but looking for additional downside price action in the short term may be the right wager.

Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.28775

Current Support: 1.28575

High Target: 1.28970

Low Target: 1.28212

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ADA/USD has seen a flurry of price action this week like all the major cryptocurrencies, but after hitting short term lows yesterday Cardano has sparked slightly higher.

As of this writing ADA/USD is traversing slightly above the 51 cents level. Cardano remains a wickedly quick moving cryptocurrency. Any speculator contemplating its price range and participation needs to be able to use all of their risk management skills, to make sure they are prepared for the speed of ADA/USD. A low of nearly 44 and half cents was produced yesterday.

While Cardano certainly remains within a long term battle via the headwinds from a strong bearish trend, ADA/USD occasionally is able to produce slight reversals higher.   ADA/USD is near its long term lows and values from early February of 2021 are plainly in sight. The past few days have seen Cardano flirt with marks of 43 and half cents, but ADA/USD has not suffered a fall to January 2021 prices as of yet, where prices like 33 cents can be seen via long term charts.

However this ability to stay above the depths of January 2021 prices may in fact be a warning sign.  Skeptical traders who have a taste and belief that more downside price action will develop near term, may be looking at the current price of ADA/USD and view it as a potential ignition point for selling positions. Resistance currently resides near the 52 and a quarter cents ratio. If the 52 cents level is not able to be surpassed in the short term and the broad cryptocurrency market takes another downturn, ADA/USD could certainly aim for lower depths in a blink of the eye.

Speculative conditions within ADA/USD near term are going to remain ultra-dangerous to wager within. Current support near the 50 and half cents mark is nearby and if this value falters traders may have a strong belief the 50 cents price will prove vulnerable too. Speculative conditions in ADA/USD do create hyper fast changes in value, and stop loss and take profit orders need to be part of the trading arsenal in order to create some protection.

ADA/USD is frequently able to produce reversals higher after hitting support levels which are attractive.  Technical traders however are faced with the dilemma of trying to time the precise level support levels will spur on temporary moves higher in the face of what has proven to be a long lasting bearish nightmare. Speculators who are intent on participating in Cardano may simply want to continue to wager on downside price action, and this cannot be faulted. Traders could use current resistance levels which are not able to see sustained price action above, as a place to consider shorting Cardano near term.

Cardano Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.52250000

Current Support: 0.50620000

High Target: 0.53890000

Low Target: 0.47350000

The nice thing about this pair is it does tend to trend quite nicely.

The US dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Wednesday as we have broken below the 20.25 pesos level. Furthermore, the 50 Day EMA sits just above the candlestick, so it looks like the greenback is going to have a little bit of a fight on its hands against the Mexican currency. That being said, another thing to keep in mind is that the crude oil markets did get a little bit of a bump during the day, which is typically good for the Peso, so you should also pay attention to that. Because of this, I think we will continue to see a lot of volatility and noisy behavior. Over the longer term, the US dollar looks as if it is trying to pick up its feet, but obviously, there is a lot of noise just above that comes into play rather quickly.

If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, it opens up the possibility of dropping back down to the 20 pesos level. This is an area that of course has a certain amount of psychology attached to it, but it is worth noting that it is in the middle of the massive “W pattern”, meaning that we have been on both sides of that level recently. Because of this, I am not overly worried about it, and I do think that the 20 level would probably even allow selling down to the 19.75 level where we had formed that double bottom.

On the upside, the area between here and 20.50 will continue to be very noisy, as there is a lot of action in that area. Furthermore, it is also the area stuck between the 200 Day EMA and the 50 Day EMA. Because of this, the market is likely to continue seeing a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore I think it is going to be difficult to break out. Once we get above the 20.50 level though, we really could see a lot of upward momentum in this market. Either way, this is a pair that is typically somewhat volatile, so keep that in mind and start to think about longer-term moves instead of short-term moves. The nice thing about this pair is it does tend to trend quite nicely.

I prefer to wait for signs of exhaustion above in order to get involved, as the trend has been so relentless.

The Euro has rallied a bit against the US dollar during the trading session on Wednesday, as the 1.08 level continues to put up a significant amount of fine. That being said, we are still very much in a downtrend, and it is difficult to get overly excited about owning the Euro right now. After all, the central banks in Europe and the United States could not be any further apart if they tried.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve is aggressive in its hawkishness, and almost certainly will be raising interest rates multiple times this year. In the EU, the European Central Bank is essentially stuck in a pattern of having to be relatively loose with monetary policy, simply because the inflation is relatively strong, but at the same time, there is a lot of uncertainty in the European Union, as we have the war in Ukraine and a serious slowdown on the horizon. Furthermore, the bond yield differential continues to favor the US, as real rates have now entered positive territory.

If we do rally a bit, the 1.0933 level will more likely than not offer a bit of resistance, as we have seen selling pressure there multiple days in a row. Breaking above that then has the market challenging the 50 Day EMA, which is just above the 1.10 level. It is drifting lower, so that does suggest that we will continue to have downward momentum to get involved in this market. I have no interest in trying to get long of the Euro anytime soon, but if we broke above the 1.12 handle, then I would have to start to rethink the entire situation. We are a bit oversold at the moment, so a little bit of a bounce makes a certain amount of sense, but that will more likely than not just be an opportunity to pick up “cheap dollars.”

The only thing I think you can count on in any market at this point is going to be a lot of volatility, so keep your position size reasonable. The timing might be difficult as we will get the occasional headline that causes a bit of chaos, and therefore has an effect on this market. I prefer to wait for signs of exhaustion above in order to get involved, as the trend has been so relentless.

DOGE/USD has been able to achieve gains the past two weeks of trading, but short-term selling has been seen due perhaps to profit taking.

DOGE/USD is trading near 14 and a quarter cents as of this writing. On the 28^th of March, DOGE/USD was able to climb above the 15 cents juncture, but Dogecoin has seen a reversal lower occur as some speculators may be cashing out and taking profits. DOGE/USD has done a relatively solid job of maintaining its gains the past two weeks and has incrementally climbed. On the 14^th of March DOGE/USD was trading near 11 cents.

Intriguingly DOGE/USD has not been able to challenge mid-term resistance like many of its major counterparts in the broad cryptocurrency market.  This may be a sign that DOGE/USD has lost some of it speculative zeal and has been replaced by other ‘favorites’ where traders pursue volatility. However, even if this is true, the current value of DOGE/USD may prove to be an opportunity for bullish speculators if they believe DOGE/USD remains in oversold territory.

While Dogecoin offers no real utilitarian use except for wagers on direction, DOGE/USD still serves a barometer regarding broad cryptocurrency market sentiment.  On the 13^th of February DOGE/USD was trading near the 15.75000000 level and continued to trend down from there and put in lows on the 24^th of February near 10.50000000. Since then DOGE/USD had traded in range, largely between 11 and 13 cents.

However since the 14^th of March, DOGE/USD has mirrored its major digital asset counterparts and mounted a steady move upwards.  Yes, there have been reversals lower, but incrementally DOGE/USD has gained, and on the 26^th of March Dogecoin was able to trade above 14 cents for the first time since the third week of February. The ability to climb above 15 cents two days later continued its climb. Profit taking in DOGE/USD is a legitimate concern, because many short term traders are certainly willing to cash in profits if they have made 10% or more on a move.

If DOGE/USD is able to maintain its 14 cents ratio and build consolidation in the short term, traders cannot be blamed for believing more upside price action is possible.  Buying DOGE/USD on slight reversals lower and looking for higher moves is a potentially worthwhile wager. Entry price orders are needed with DOGE/USD to guard against ‘odd’ fills. Looking for upside action to 14 and half cents and perhaps even a retest of 15 cents with Dogecoin near term may prove to a good speculative decision.

Dogecoin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.14430000

Current Support: 0.14070000

High Target: 0.15200000

Low Target: 0.13850000