I think this is a market that continues to see a lot of negativity unless of course the US dollar suddenly changes this trajectory, something that I can’t see happening based on interest rates and what they are doing right now. 

The NASDAQ 100 got crushed on Friday as Jerome Powell has finally talked the market into believing the fact that he is trying to fight inflation. In other words, interest rates will continue to be high, and that absolutely crushes growth stocks. Growth stocks make up the major push in this market, therefore it’s likely that we continue to go lower.

We are now below the 50-Day EMA, and closing at the bottom of the candlestick. In other words, it’s very likely that we continue to go lower, and therefore I think that we have now entered the next phase of the bearish market. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, we could see this market go down to the $12,000 level. Breaking down below there then opens up the possibility of a move down to the $11,000 level.

Looking for Signs of Exhaustion

• If we do rally, I will be looking for signs of exhaustion that I can start shortening, especially with the 200 Day EMA sitting just below the $13,500 area, which is where we topped out at.
• I think this is a market that continues to see a lot of negativity unless of course the US dollar suddenly changes this trajectory, something that I can’t see happening based on interest rates and what they are doing right now. Markets are all over the place, but it certainly looks as if a lot of people got on the wrong side of the trade.
• This is a scenario where I will be looking at an opportunity every time we get a rally and exhaustion, and therefore I will be watching this chart very closely.

The market certainly seems to have gotten a bit of a shock, and the fact that we are closing at the very bottom of the candlestick does suggest that we have further to go. In this scenario, I am very aggressively short on a breakdown, or at the first signs of an exhausting candle. I do like the idea of shorting the NASDAQ 100, and I think that it’s needed to happen for quite some time as the stock market has continued to ignore reality, but it got a huge dose of it during the Jackson Hole Symposium speech. 14 years of spoon feeding Wall Street has caused this train wreck, now it’s up to the Federal Reserve to end it.

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The price of the yellow metal has struggled to maintain any momentum after surpassing $1,800 earlier this month. 

• Gold futures snapped a three-session winning streak on Friday, despite a weaker dollar. Investors are watching developments at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, expecting the event to provide guidance on monetary policy.
• The price of the yellow metal has struggled to maintain any momentum after surpassing $1,800 earlier this month.
• The price of gold tried to recover but its gains stopped towards the resistance level of $1765 per ounce before collapsing towards the support level of $1734 per ounce following Jerome Powell’s statements.

Gold price was relatively flat during the week’s trading and remains down roughly 4% year-to-date. As for the price of silver, the sister commodity to gold, it tried to stay above the $19 level at the end of last week’s trading. The price of the white metal posted a weekly gain of 1.4%, narrowly avoiding a bear market. The economic data cannot support the divergent gold prices because the statistics cannot support or oppose any argument for further increases or decreases in interest rates. For now, financial markets will be keeping a close eye on what happens at the Fed’s annual retreat in Wyoming.

A report indicated that consumer demand in the United States is diminishing, which may affect the economy in general as the fourth quarter approaches. And according to the Census Bureau, US personal spending rose just 0.1% in July, below market estimates of 0.4%. And that was less than a 1% gain in June. This represents the weakest number this year. Personal income rose by 0.2% last month, missing economists’ expectations of 0.6%. While it was the sixth straight monthly gain, it was the worst reading since January’s 0% growth.”

U.S. Treasury yields turned amid a mixed performance, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 2.1 basis points to 3.045%. And one-year bond yields fell 0.1 basis point to 3.362%, while the 30-year bond yield rose 2.1 basis points to 3.255%. And a rising rates environment is usually bearish for gold because it raises the opportunity cost of owning commodity, as it doesn’t yield a return.

For other metals markets, copper futures rose to $3.7655 a pound. Platinum futures fell to $865.00 per ounce, while palladium futures rose to $2144.00 per ounce.

The price at gold is traded is being affected by the reaction from the release of the economic data. Michigan’s American consumer confidence index for the month of August exceeded expectations at 55.2, settling at 58.2. This affected the price of the yellow metal as investors turned to risk trading. While the personal income and spending data was disappointing, investors remained positive after the impressive data announced earlier in the week.

Initial US GDP data for the second quarter came in stronger than expected on a quarterly and annual basis. On the other hand, initial and ongoing jobless claims came in below estimates, boosting market optimism once again. Durable goods for July missed expectations at 0.6% with a change of 0%, while non-defense capital goods orders for aircraft was higher than the 0.3% expected by the analysts, with a change of 0.4%.

Technical analysis of the price of gold:

In the near term and according to the performance on the hourly chart, it seems that the gold price is trading within the formation of a sharp downward channel. This indicates a strong downward momentum in the short term in market sentiment. Therefore, the bears will target short-term profits at around $1734, or lower at $1730, while the are looking to pounce on potential rebound profits at around $1.741, or higher at $1746.

In the long term and according to the performance on the daily chart, it seems that the price of gold is trading within the formation of a downward channel. This indicates a significant long-term bearish bias in market sentiment. Therefore, the bears will target long-term profits at around $1714 or lower at $1690 per ounce. On the other hand, the bulls will target potential reversal profits at around $1759 or higher at $1782 per ounce.

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The price of gold may remain under pressure until the Jackson Hole symposium.

• Gold futures continued their longest losing streak since July, as the rise of the US dollar led to the decline of the yellow metal at the beginning of this week’s trading.
• The price of XAU/USD fell to the support level of $ 1728 an ounce, the lowest for the price of gold in nearly a month.
• Investors had been expecting more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, reducing the prospects for a slowdown in tightening efforts.
• The price of the precious metal is retreating from a weekly loss of 2%, which adds to its performance since the beginning of the year 2022 to date by about -4.5%.

As for the price of silver, the sister commodity to gold, it is also retreating and tumbled to $ 18,835 an ounce. The price of the white metal fell more than 6% last week, exacerbating its horrific performance in 2022 by 19.35%. Since investors priced interest rates at around 3.5% by the end of the year, gold prices have become a victim in this market. Several US Federal Reserve officials dismissed the market’s suggestion that the central bank might start cutting interest rates in the face of slowing growth. The aggressive nature of the Federal Reserve has bolstered the US currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, rose to 108.41, and a strong dollar is bad for dollar-priced commodities because it makes it more expensive to buy for foreign investors.

Commenting on the performance, Han Tan, Senior Market Analyst at Exinity said: “Precious metals are fading as the burning US dollar continues its quest to return to recent highs, as markets regain their bets on the Fed and the tightening path.”

The US Treasury market was also higher overall, with the benchmark 10-year yield unchanged at 2.989%. One-year yields rose 6.4 basis points to 3.307%, while 30-year yields rose 0.1 basis points to 3.226%. The spread between the two-year and 10-year bond yields is stable at -31 basis points.

Relative to the prices of other metallic commodities, the price of copper fell to $3.6315 per pound. Platinum futures fell to $861.30 an ounce. Futures contracts for palladium fell to $ 2004 an ounce.

All eyes on Federal Reserve

Overall, gold traded at its lowest level in more than three weeks as Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to tighten monetary settings to curb inflation. Bullion prices capped their first weekly decline in five as investors weighed optimistic statements by policy makers that warn of a rise in US interest rates. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Friday that the US central bank is determined to return inflation to its 2% target, even if that means risking a recession in the US.

All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell when he speaks Friday at the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole. He is expected to reiterate the Fed’s determination to continue raising interest rates to control inflation, though he may stop indicating how senior officials will go when they meet next month.

High interest rates weigh on non-interest bearing bullion. Investor demand has faltered, with holdings in exchange-traded funds falling for the 10th consecutive week, according to preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg. Ravindra Rao, Head of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities Ltd. ETFs, said ETFs showed modest buying interest on Friday “the price of gold may remain under pressure as we see a shift from riskier assets to the safety of the US dollar.” He said investors were re-entering.

Today’s XAU/USD Gold Price Forecast:

Bears control over the gold price direction is still the strongest, and the recent losses pushed the technical indicators on the daily chart towards oversold levels. Therefore, it is possible to think about buying gold from the following support levels of 1715 dollars and 1685 dollars, respectively. The uptrend for the XAU/USD price will not return without moving towards the top of $1800 an ounce. The price of gold may remain under pressure until the Jackson Hole symposium.

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• The US dollar recovered strongly after announcing the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which contributed to the increase in the selling of the gold price.
• Its losses reached the support level of 1760 dollars per ounce before settling around the 1763 dollars per ounce level at the time of writing the analysis.
• The XAU/USD gold price abandoned the $1800 psychological resistance at the beginning of this week’s trading.
• Investors have increased their appetite to buy the dollar as a haven, in addition to the strength factors from the future tightening of the US central bank’s policy, which is negative for gold.

Gold analysts’ expectations in the coming days:

A new institutional analysis has found that the XAU/USD gold price is likely to be supported by continued hedging demand by investors, and a new medium-term technical analysis says a return to the $1835 resistance cannot be ruled out.

The latest research report from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that they expect the precious metal to remain relatively supported in the near term. “Gold is likely to remain reactive to real prices, driven by the speed with which global central banks are tightening monetary policy in an effort to control inflation,” WGC says in its mid-year analysis. The report adds that although the Fed is likely to continue raising interest rates and creating potential headwinds for gold, many of this hawkish policy is “priced in”. Meanwhile, persistent inflation and geopolitical risks are likely to keep gold in demand as a hedge, the report says.

He adds that “the weak performance of stocks and bonds in a potentially inflationary environment may also be positive for gold.”

From a technical perspective, Bill McNamara, Director of The Technical Trader says that the gold chart deserves a closer look after its latest price move. He stated, “The weekly chart shows that the price is heading to the upside since it fell back to the trading low of $ 1,680 three weeks ago, at which point it tested – successfully – the support in the form of bottoms that were originally formed again in the first half of 2021.”

Over the past four weeks, gold prices have risen 5.6%, their best performance since February/March, when they rose to $2,052.41 an ounce. The analyst added, “Her most recent price movement pushed it to a five-week high, and it should be noted that it does not look particularly overbought at this point (RSI = 61%), which means there may still be room for more approach.” He also said that the next area of ​​potential resistance would be at $1,835 or so, at which point it would have rebounded nearly 38.2% of the selling started in March.

XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today:

We still prefer buying gold from every descending level, and the closest and most appropriate buying levels for that are 1754 and 1738 dollars, respectively. On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart, the bulls will not control the trend again without moving towards the psychological resistance of 1800 dollars an ounce again. The price of gold will be affected today by the price of the US dollar, the extent to which investors are willing to risk or not, the reaction from the announcement of inflation figures in the euro area, the announcement of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, and the number of US weekly jobless claims.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

• Risk 0.50%.
• None of the buy or sell transactions of yesterday were activated

Best selling entry points

Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33

• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85

• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish lira

The price of the USD/TRY only moved slightly during today’s early trading, the dollar had risen near levels of 18 lira yesterday, before the pair returned to stability below this level. The dollar rose against the major currencies during yesterday’s trading after the announcement of the FOMC meeting minutes, which showed the possibility that the Fed will start moving interest rates at a slower pace depending on the circumstances and economic data. Some Fed members also saw the possibility of keeping the interest rate at elevated levels for a period of time even as inflation began to be brought under control.

Despite the dollar’s gains against most major currencies and emerging market currencies, the US currency did not move only slightly against the lira, as observers attributed the intervention of the Turkish Central Bank directly to impose a kind of stability for the lira price. It is noteworthy that the Turkish Central Bank is suffering from a decline in the volume of foreign exchange, but the bank has received support of several billions from Russia within the project to establish a nuclear plant in the country.

Turkish Lira Technical Outlook

On the technical front, the US dollar against the Turkish lira settled without changes within the same narrow trading range shown on the chart. The pair traded the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 17.85 and 17.75 levels, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. The pair is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair is heading in an overall bullish trend. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

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With the beginning of this week’s trading, the gold price completed the broader downward path, as the US dollar continues its record gains. Despite fears of the future of the global economic recession and a new outbreak of the Corona virus, the gold price fell to the support level of $1723 an ounce in early trading today, Tuesday, the lowest price for the yellow metal in nine months.

The gold market was hit by the rising US dollar. Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation report this week and mounting fears of an economic recession, gold prices were falling, with most of their losses occurring after the Fed’s tightening campaign began. In general, XAU/USD gold prices are retreating from a weekly loss of about 4%, in addition to their decline since the start of 2022 to date by more than 5%.

And for the price of silver, the sister commodity of gold, adding to its massive drop in 2022. Silver futures fell to $19.15 an ounce. The price of the white metal also decreased by about 3% last week, adding to its decline since the start of the year 2022 to date by about 18%. The biggest factor in the metal commodity price crash was the dollar’s rise. Where the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, rose to 108.05, from an opening at 106.93. In general, the index achieved weekly gains of 2%, which raised its gains since the beginning of 2022 to date to nearly 13%.

The strongest bearish price is for commodities priced in dollars because it makes them more expensive to purchase for foreign investors.

All in all, the Fed is preparing to push the trigger to raise the US interest rate by another 75 basis points this month in the face of high inflation. This has caused chaos in the bond market as investors anticipate a recession over the next two years. The US Treasury market was mixed, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield dropping 11.2 basis points to 2.989%. However, the main focus is on yield curve inversion between 2-year and 10-year yields. This is an important indicator of a recession because it has predicted all but one of the economic slowdowns since 1955.

The price of gold is sensitive to a high interest rate environment because it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Commenting on this, Naim Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade said, “The price movement of the precious metal is largely driven by the dollar index, which is holding on to its strength.” Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index for June (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, with economists expecting a headline reading of 8.8%. If accurate, this would be up from the 8.6% figure in May.

In other metals markets, copper futures fell to $3.4055 a pound. Platinum futures fell to $862.60 an ounce. Palladium futures rose to $2,183.00 an ounce.

On the other hand, stocks fell, with traders preparing for a heated inflation reading and the start of a major earnings season that may provide clues as to whether the US economy is heading into a recession. The sell-off in shares of huge companies such as Tesla Inc. and Apple Inc. weighed on the stock market – which saw its lowest trading volume in 2022. Shares of Twitter Inc. fell. By 11 percent, Elon Musk walked away from his $44 billion deal to buy the company, setting the stage for a legal battle.

Amid a wide-ranging confluence of economic challenges, investors are waiting to see if earnings falter or whether companies will drastically lower their forecasts. One reason for caution is the split between two major forces on Wall Street. Analysts are betting that Corporate America is flexible enough to pass on higher costs to consumers at a time when many strategists aren’t really convinced that this is the case.

Malley noted that stocks are trading at valuation levels that are seen as highs – not lows. He added that the current price-to-sales metric is, for example, at the same level from the market tops in 2020 and 2018 and in the tech bubble in 2000.

Gold Technical Analysis

So far, the general trend of the gold price is still bearish, taking into account that according to the performance on the daily chart, the recent losses of gold moved the technical indicators towards strong oversold levels, and accordingly, gold investors may think about buying gold from the support levels 1715, 1690 and 1660. On the other hand, the bullish view of the gold price will not return without breaching the psychological resistance level of 1800 dollars an ounce as soon as possible.

I still prefer buying gold from every bearish level.

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The EUR/USD exchange rate has returned to stability above the recently recovered 1.05 level. With the European economic outlook appearing to be bleak, the euro may now struggle to advance beyond 1.06 without an additional pullback for the US dollar, which appeared to falter in its move of the week. At the beginning of this week’s trading, the euro-dollar moved towards the 1.0615 level, and is currently stabilizing around the 1.0570 level. Overall, the single European currency attracted buying bids from the market whenever it approached the 1.05 support or less. Its recovery above this level was largely supported by the weakness of the dollar and the broad-based gains in the stock and bond markets that many analysts attribute to investors’ concerns about the global economy.

This was after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell asserted in the US Congress last week that it would be difficult for the Fed to bring down US inflation without disrupting the labor market or hurting the economy, leading to a downward revision of market expectations for US interest rates.

Commenting on this, says Chris Turner, global markets analyst at ING Bank. “The current price action is in line with our base scenario of EUR/USD trading in a range during the summer months before taking a modest turn at the end of the year, we believe, the market should shift towards pricing for the start of the Fed’s easing in late 2023. However, the Fed will continue to tighten and the EUR/USD may struggle to sustain gains above 1.0625/40 this week.”

As for the euro, a revised outlook for Fed policy and a pullback for the dollar offset a further decline in the European Central Bank’s interest rate expectations after last Thursday’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index surveys, which warned of a bleak outlook for key industries in the European economy. The downturn in Europe’s PMI surveys reversed much of the recovery from losses from the “winter shutdown,” and came at a time when the continent’s largest economy, Germany, faces rising risks linked to reduced gas supplies from Russia.

Derek Halpini, head of research for global markets at MUFG, said: “The final phase of Germany’s plan will include rationing of gas supplies, which will have a more direct impact on economic activity. With Nord Stream flows further affected by the shutdown of regular annual maintenance, a move to Phase 3 appears more likely than not.”

This could have implications for the prospects for ECB monetary tightening. Currently, roughly 160 basis points of tightening are priced in for the year. This is exaggerated but 185 points per second are priced in the US. Ultimately, it seems more likely than otherwise that the Fed will have a pause before the end of the year, but a certain energy shock through higher natural gas prices could unfold soon and could be a catalyst for a new pullback in the EUR/USD.”

Euro forecast against the dollar:

My technical view of the future of the EUR/USD price has not changed so far, as we have not seen a strong change in the performance of the currency pair since last week. The general trend of the EUR/USD is still bearish and approaching the support 1.0500 supports the bears to move further downwards. Accordingly, the following support levels may be 1.0425 and 1.0380, respectively, and the last and lowest level is moving the technical indicators towards oversold levels.

On the other hand, and as I mentioned before, moving towards the resistance levels 1.0665 and 1.0800 will be important to start breaking the current trend. Today, the euro will await new statements from ECB Governor Lagarde, and the dollar will be on a date with the announcement of US consumer confidence.

The only thing that I would do with this market right now is short it, or perhaps wait for it to collapse another 60% or so, and then start to dip my toe in the water.

Ethereum markets did almost nothing on Friday as we continue to see malaise in this market. Ethereum has over-promised and under-delivered. “Ethereum 2.0” might be something we see in my lifetime, but I would not bet on it based on the lack of production that has happened. The only consistency that I have seen coming out of Ethereum has been delays.

That being said, Ethereum does have a future, but not at extraordinarily high levels, at least not yet. I do think that sometime this week we will break down below the $1000 level. At that point, we are likely to go much lower, and I would not be surprised at all to see Ethereum break back down to the $400 level, the same place it spent the last “crypto winter.” Most people don’t want to hear it, but crypto is about to be dead for a couple of years, and that’s going to affect almost all markets. Granted, Ethereum will be one of the leaders on the way back up, but we don’t know who’s going to be left yet. (I believe that this is much like 1999 and technology stocks, where several of these coins are going to disappear.)

I do think Ethereum will survive this. However, there are a lot of coins that are billed in the ecosystem that are not going to. That will drive down demand, and Ethereum will pay the price as well. I suppose the one good thing about this is the gas fees will get cheaper, whether or not they actually implement some of the improvements that they have been talking about ad nauseam for a couple of years.

The only thing that I would do with this market right now is short it, or perhaps wait for it to collapse another 60% or so, and then start to dip my toe in the water. I have a longer-term plan to buy Ethereum, but I have months to do it, if not a few years. Remember the last crypto winter, a lot of money was made by dipping your toe into the water occasionally for about three years, and then watching the value of your coins skyrocket. We may see that again, but then again we may not, and that’s the real conundrum that most traders are going find right now.

The sharp gains of the US dollar strongly contributed to the collapse of the gold price to the level of 1805 dollars an ounce. This is the lowest for the price of the yellow metal a month ago, before settling around the 1808 dollars an ounce at the time of writing the analysis. 

The losses in the gold market came as dollar and Treasury yields continued to rise ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the US interest rate by 50 basis points. In this regard, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

The accompanying statement from the US central bank is expected to provide clues about future interest rate hikes and policy stance.

After that, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by a modest 25 basis points on Thursday despite data on Monday showing a contraction in the country’s GDP in April. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to about 3.45%. The dollar index rose to a two-decade high of 105.46 today.

As for US economic data today, data from the Labor Department showed US producer prices rose 0.8% on a monthly basis in May 2022, after rising 0.4% in April. The producer price index for final demand, excluding food and energy, rose 0.5% from the previous month in May 2022, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.2% increase the previous month. On an annual basis, core producer prices rose 8.3%, down from a revised 8.6% increase in April.

Annual product inflation in the US fell slightly to 10.8% in May 2022 from 10.9% in April and a 21-year high of 11.5% in March. On the other hand, according to a report issued by the National Federation of Independent Business, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the United States fell to 93.1 in May of 2022, the lowest level since April of 2020, compared to 93.2 in April.

According to the technical analysis of gold: There is no doubt that the movement of the price of gold towards the psychological support of 1800 dollars per ounce supports the control of the bears and the change of the direction of gold to a bearish one. Gold investors are preparing for new buying levels, and I see that the support levels of 1778 and 1760 dollars, respectively, are the most appropriate to think about that. The recent losses pushed the technical indicators towards oversold levels. The price of gold may remain under downward pressure until the reaction from monetary policy decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the statements of its governor, Jerome Powell. Indications of the future of raising the US interest rate will have a strong reaction on the US dollar, and therefore the price of gold.

On the upside, the price of gold needs to return to the vicinity of the resistance levels of 1828 and 1845 dollars, respectively, for the bulls to return to the launch.

We have been going sideways for a while, but this looks a lot like the last time we were going sideways, just before we fell.

The Bitcoin market fell a bit on Friday as we continue to see bearish pressure. At this point, the $28,000 level underneath offers quite a bit of support, so if we were to break down below that level it’s likely that Bitcoin will fall apart, sending the market down to the $25,000 level, perhaps even down to the $20,000 level.

Notice that the market has been going sideways overall, as we have bounced around the $30,000 level. The most recent rally had reached the $32,500 level, where we had seen previous selling pressure. If we can break above there, then I think we could get a little bit of a squeeze to the upside, sending this market to the $35,000 level, possibly even the $37,500 level.

It’s not until Bitcoin breaks about the $40,000 level that you can make an argument for a trend change, and I just don’t see that happening. Crypto has been beaten up rather significantly over the last several months, as the US dollar has been strengthening and risk appetite has been eviscerated. At this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I think that any rally at this point in time will find enough exhaustion that you can start shorting again. Bitcoin has a long way to go before it turns around to show a longer-term move to the upside, and now it looks to me like we probably break down even further.

The $30,000 level is a bit of a magnet but at this point, it looks like the sellers are starting to get a little bit more aggressive as we have seen the most recent rally smashed. A lot of that was probably marking up into the end of the month, which is something that is illegal in normal markets. At this point, it’s very unlikely that crypto suddenly turns around for any bigger move, as risk appetite is absolutely destroyed. The market will continue to see a lot of volatility, and volatility quite often will keep big money out of the market. Until the Federal Reserve changes its overall tune, I just don’t see how Bitcoin outperforms the US dollar anytime soon. We have been going sideways for a while, but this looks a lot like the last time we were going sideways, just before we fell.