By failing to move above the resistance at 30,000 this month, it seems like bears have prevailed.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 24,915 and a take-profit at 23,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 26,000.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 25,500 and a take-profit at 27,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 24,000.

The BTC/USD price crashed to the year-to-date low as investors remained concerned about the rising inflation, interest rates, and recession chances. It dropped to a low of 24,915, which was the lowest level since 2021.

Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure

Bitcoin and stocks are struggling after the strong American inflation data signaled that a major recession could happen in the coming months.

American stocks declined sharply on Friday, with the Dow Jones falling by over 800 points and the Nasdaq 100 shedding over 400 points.

At the same time, the bond sell-off continued after the consumer price index data. The yield of the 10-year bond rose to 3.16% while that of the 30-year rose to 3.20%. Bond yields are usually inverse to their prices.

This performance is mostly because of the changing market conditions as inflation surges and the unemployment rate remains low.

Therefore, analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will embrace a more hawkish tone when it completes its meeting this week. It will likely hike rates by 0.50% and hint towards more hikes later this year. It is also continuing with its quantitative tightening policy.

Still, there are lingering concerns about a recession considering that the yield curve inverted a few months ago. In a statement during the weekend, Larry Summers, who warned about inflation said:

“When inflation is as high as it is right now and unemployment is as low as it is right now, it’s almost always followed within two years by recession. The Fed’s forecasts have tended to be much too optimistic there, and I hope they’ll realize fully the gravity of the problem.”

The BTC/USD pair will react to the upcoming interest rate decision by the Fed. Also, with the Consensus event done, enthusiasm about crypto could be a bit limited.

BTC/USD Forecast

The BTC/USD pair made a bearish breakout during the weekend. It managed to move below the important support level at 25,480, which was its lowest level this year. The pair has moved below the 25-period and 15-period moving averages. It also seems like it has formed a head and shoulders pattern.

Therefore, by failing to move above the resistance at 30,000 this month, it seems like bears have prevailed. As a result, a drop to the 2017 high of 19,815 cannot be ruled out. In the near term, the next psychological level to watch will be at 23,000.

There is a likelihood that the coin’s price will continue falling as bears target the key support at $0.4340.

Bearish View

• Sell Cardano and set a take-profit at $0.40.
• Add a stop-loss at $0.6450.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at $0.6065 and a take-profit at $0.7435.
• Add a stop-loss at $0.500.

Cardano price has been in a spectacular sell-off as concerns about the crypto industry continues. The ADA/USD pair has declined from an all-time high of over $3 to today’s $0.5600. As a result, the coin’s market cap has crashed by more than $91 billion to today’s $18 billion. This decline has been worse than other big cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Cardano Sell-Off Accelerates

Cardano is a leading blockchain project that was established in 2015 by Charles Hoskinson, a co-founder of Ethereum. The network’s goal is to help developers build decentralized applications (dApps) such as those in the gaming, metaverse, and DeFi industry.

However, while Cardano is a highly popular blockchain network, it has several challenges beneath the surface. For one, it took more about 6 years for the project to introduce smart contract features. In this period, some projects like Cronos and Avalanche were launched and achieved success.

At the same time, Cardano’s ecosystem is relatively small. For example, while Cardano has a market cap of over $18 billion, its DeFi applications have a TVL of just $137 million. Therefore, there have been lingering questions about the network for a while.

Cardano price declined sharply last week as Terra Luna moved from one of the biggest coins in the world to the biggest bust. A coin that was once valued at over $65 billion is now valued at $1 billion. Its stablecoin has lost its peg and is now trading at cents. Therefore, some analysts believe that Cardano’s lack of ecosystem could push it sharply lower.

Like other coins, the ADA/USD pair has bounced back in the past few days. It has moved from last week’s low of $0.4086 to a high of $0.6056. However, there are signs that this bear market rally could be short-lived.

Cardano Price Prediction

The ADA price managed to move below the important support level at $0.7435, which was the lowest level on February 24th. While the coin has made some gains, it remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the money flow index (MFI) has moved to the oversold level. The coin formed an inverted cup and handle pattern.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the coin’s price will continue falling as bears target the key support at $0.4340. On the flip side, a move above this week’s high of $0.6200 will invalidate the bearish view.

The EUR/USD pair will likely have a bearish breakout and drop to the 20-year low of 1.0280.

Bearish view

• Sell the EUR/USD and set a take-profit at 1.0280.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0500.
• Timeline: 1-3 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0440 and a take-profit at 1.0515.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0345.

The EUR/USD made a major bearish breakout last week as investors focused on the weakening of the European economy and the overall bullish US dollar. The pair slumped to a low of 1.0350, which was the lowest level since 2017. A slight decline below this level will push the pair to the lowest level since 2002.

European economy under strain

The European economy has been under serious strain in the past few months because of the situation in Ukraine. The situation worsened last week after Ukraine decided to shut a pipeline that transports natural gas from Russia to Europe.

It then came under pressure after Russia decided to sanction a number of European natural gas companies that receive gas from the country. As a result, the bloc’s gas prices surged and put important industries at risk.

At the same time, the bloc is struggling from an increased shortage of wheat and other industrial metals like steel and aluminum. Therefore, analysts expect that the bloc’s inflation will keep rising in the coming months.

This week, Eurostat will publish a number of important economic numbers that will have an impact on the EUR/USD pair. On Wednesday, the agency will release the latest consumer inflation data. Analysts expect these numbers to reveal that the bloc’s consumer price index rose to 7.5% in April. If they are correct, it will be the highest since records started.

The other key numbers will come on Tuesday, when the agency will release the preliminary GDP and employment change numbers. Economists believe that the economy expanded by 5.0% in the quarter. Christine Lagarde will also deliver a speech, a week after she signaled that that the bank will hike interest rates.

The other key data that will have an impact on the EUR/USD pair will be the American retail sales numbers that will come on Tuesday.

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD pair made a strong bearish breakout last week. At the time, the pair managed to move below the important support at 1.0505, which was the lower side of the horizontal channel. It remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

Now, it has formed a bearish flag pattern while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the oversold level. Therefore, the pair will likely have a bearish breakout and drop to the 20-year low of 1.0280.