Looking at this chart, and looking at the history of Jerome Powell, I can almost guarantee that he will probably make things worse, not better. 

• The gold spot market rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, to reach above the $1760 level. The market is likely to continue seeing a lot of noise.
• Gold markets are waiting to see what happens on Friday morning, as Jerome Powell has a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Traders are trying to figure out whether the Federal Reserve is going to reiterate its hawkish attitude, or if it is going to have to pivot. After all, there is somewhat mixed economic news out there, but at the end of the day, inflation is still a big deal.

The 50-Day EMA sits above and is offering a significant amount of resistance, so I think a lot of traders will be paying attention to that technical indicator. Above there, we have the $1800 level, which is where we had pulled back from previously, with the 200-Day EMA sitting above there. All of that could cause a significant amount of resistance, so do not be surprised at all to see a huge fight if we try to rally.

Traders Waiting for Jerome Powell’s Speech

Underneath, the $1720 level has offered short-term support, and I think a lot of people will be looking at that number with great interest. If we were to break it down below it, it’s possible that we could go down to the $1680 level. Anything below there opens a significant amount of potential selling pressure, and it’s possible that we could drop all the way down to the $1500 level. It’s going to be difficult to trade this market in the short term, because you are going to have to pay close attention to the bond markets and interest rates, or perhaps more specifically put, pay attention to how traders interpret whatever it is Jerome Powell says.

Looking at this chart, and looking at the history of Jerome Powell, I can almost guarantee that he will probably make things worse, not better. Clarity is not exactly his forte, so I anticipate that we have sloppy trading ahead of us. However, I do think that the support area underneath should be rather significant, so it’s going to take a lot to send the market through that floor. Another real possibility is that we are simply going to grind in this overall consolidating pattern.

Ready to trade our Gold price forecast? We’ve made a list of the best Gold brokers worth trading with.

The USD/JPY has reversed from highs achieved a couple of days ago, but remains stubbornly perched within the loftier part of its long term range.

The USD/JPY is trading near the 1.36700 vicinity as of this writing.  On the 23^rd of August the USD/JPY currency pair managed to attain a high of nearly 1.37700 and this wasn’t a momentary spike. From the 19^th until yesterday the USD/JPY has managed to consistently trade above the 1.37000 level with rapid fire price action. In early trading this morning the USD/JPY has moved slightly lower, but this bearish trend may prove short lived.

The USD/JPY Continues to Demonstrate a Bullish Price Range

The USD/JPY will remain speculative and traders need to be careful.  Experienced traders however already know that. The trick to the puzzle is understanding the USD/JPY has been consistently testing its upper range and strong reversals lower have not proven durable as of yet.

Fundamental economic data and actions via central banks like the BoJ and Fed continue to prove rather unimpressive. Growth challenges, inflation and interest rate policies remain hot topics of debate with no clear answers to resolve matters.

The 1.37000 looms over the USD/JPY with a very evident psychological threshold. The ability to break below this juncture this morning is noteworthy, but from a risk reward perspective via trading does downside ability look more attractive than potential upside movement in the near term? A retest of the 1.37000 level in the short term might prove to be a significant buying signal for quick hitting momentum trades with realistic targets.

Some Traders Believe the USD/JPY is overbought, is this Viewpoint Wrong?

Conservative speculators should be cautious considering the amount of nervous sentiment in the USD/JPY and the amount of data and news events which will unfold the next two days. However traders who are seeking wagering opportunities may view the coming storm as a chance to dive in and test their perspectives.

If current support levels near the 1.36600 to 1.36550 ratios hold water, this may prove to be place to ignite buying positions which seek higher ground.  Trading conditions will prove to be fast the remainder of the week and risk management is essential. The incremental climb upwards in the USD/JPY may not be finished yet.

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 136.850

Current Support: 136.490

High Target: 137.510

Low Target: 136.080

Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best Forex brokers in the industry for you.

I think the volatility is going to get worse, not better.

• The S&P 500 Index rallied a bit on Wednesday as the CPI numbers came out cooler than anticipated.
• That being said, the market looks very likely to continue trying to grind higher.
• It’s worth noting that we are above the 4200 level in the E-mini futures market, and as a result, we need to recognize that we have broken through significant resistance.
• If we get any follow-through whatsoever, it’s likely that the S&P 500 will go looking to the 4300 level.

Follow-Through Likely

As the CPI number came out lower than anticipated, yields in the bond market fell a bit. That being said, it’s a bit difficult to read too much into it from one day, but it is likely that we will see a little bit of follow-through. Whether or not the market continues to go higher than that is a completely different scenario, but I think at this point we are more likely than not going to continue to see a lot of volatility, but it seems that Wall Street is willing to “climb the wall of worry.”

I do believe that eventually, we will have a significant selloff, but today was without a doubt a very positive turn of events. I’m not quite ready to call it a bullish market yet, because nothing adds up to anything that should be remotely bullish other than the possibility that Wall Street thinks the Federal Reserve is going to loosen monetary policy. This is going to cause all kinds of issues, and I think the volatility is going to get worse, not better. Just above at the 4300 level, I think there is even more resistance, not only due to the previous action but the fact that the 200-day EMA sits right there as well.

If we break down below the 4100 level again, that could be a significant fake-out, sending the market into a tailspin. Breaking below the 4100 level then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 50 Day EMA, which is near the 3950 level. Either way, I think this is going to be a very erratic market, but it’s obvious that the buyers have the upper hand in the short term. Whether they have it in the long term it still a bit of a question as we are sitting right in an area where sellers almost certainly are going to show back up.

Ready to trade the Forex S&P 500? We’ve made a list of the best online CFD trading brokers worth trading with.

Our expectations suggest a decline in the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in its last sessions by 0.23%, to gain about 76.65 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,803.47, after its decline during Thursday’s trading by -0.26%, in last week, the index declined slightly by -0.13%.

The US employment report showed an increase of 528,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, exceeding estimates of an increase of 250 thousand jobs, compared to a 398,000 increase in June. While the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, versus estimates of no change of 3.6% in a Bloomberg survey.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, stronger than the upwardly revised 0.4% increase in June, while maintaining the adjusted annual rate at 5.2% compared to expectations of a slowdown to 4.9%.

The unemployment rate has returned to its pre-pandemic lows and hourly wages have risen. Announcements of layoffs by a number of prominent companies had earlier raised fears that a strong labor market could be waning, opening the door to stronger expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve accepted, as part of its attempts to rein in inflation, which reached its highest level in 40 years.

Some analysts argue that the strong jobs data reinforces the notion that the economy can withstand the Fed’s monetary policy tightening without falling into a recession. Meanwhile, sharp declines in commodity prices, including oil, helped support the notion that inflation may be approaching its peak.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the index moves within the range of a bearish corrective price channel that limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. This is with the influx of negative signals on the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas of severe overbought operations. The index benefits from positive support due to its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in the index during its upcoming trading, as long as the pivotal resistance level 33,240 remains intact, to target the support level 31,885.

Ready to trade the Dow Jones in Forex? Here’s a list of some of the best CFD brokers to check out.

The USD/SGD has held onto the upwards movement it created before going into the weekend as Monday has started and may entice traders.

The USD/SGD is hovering near the 1.38000 level as of this writing. Before going into the weekend, the USD/SGD currency pair had been seeing plenty of price activity near the 1.37500 ratio, which was until U.S economic data via Average Hourly Earnings came in stronger than expected.

While technical traders may dismiss the price action as a natural move higher as support was proven durable, fundamental traders certainly will point to behavioral sentiment across Forex which shows the USD got strong in most major currency pairs at nearly the exact moment. The move higher attained on Friday was a spike upwards which touched the 1.38340 level briefly.  It appears the USD/SGD currency pair may face rather choppy conditions moving forward this week.

Ride Upwards Mirrors Other Major Currencies as USD/SGD Climbs

The fact that the USD/SGD has essentially held its ground this morning and not reversed sharply lower, likely demonstrates nervous sentiment again is vast regarding the U.S Federal Reserve’s outlook regarding interest rates. On the 26^th of July the USD/SGD was trading near the 1.39000 ratio, this before slumping to a low of nearly 1.374700 momentarily this past Friday. The incremental selling of the USD/SGD likely took place the past tend days because financial houses were counting on a less hawkish U.S central bank.

Friday’s data from the U.S turned Forex on its head quickly and the USD/SGD reversal higher suddenly brought the currency pair in sight of upwards realms.  Yes, the USD/SGD could certainly reverse lower and traders should expect choppy conditions ahead this week as financial houses search for equilibrium, but behavioral sentiment may remain nervous about more interest hikes from the U.S than were expected only one week ago. If this proves to be the case the USD/SGD may continue to test the 1.38000 ratio and higher.

• Support near the 1.38000 should be watched closely for the USD/SGD currency pair in the short term. Durable support could spur on more buying of the USD/SGD as speculative perspectives look for more upside.
• Support near the 1.37500 if broken lower would be noteworthy, but may point to an oversold USD/SGD, which could create reversals higher near term.

USD/SGD Testing Higher Realms Again and Bulls may pursue Price Action

The USD/SGD will generate fast trading today.  Last Friday’s spike higher will certainly be tested by speculators who believe the Forex pair has been overbought, but strong lower moves are likely to create buying opportunities. The USD/SGD may find durable support within the 1.37900 to 1.37650 sphere. Traders must be careful with the amount of leverage they use, and take profit and stop loss orders are urged.

Singapore Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.38150

Current Support: 1.37850

High Target: 1.39090

Low Target: 1.37500

Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex trading platforms to check out.

The USD/JPY has reversed upwards after hitting depths early this week that had not been seen since the first week of June.

As of this writing the USD/JPY is traversing close to the 134.200 mark in rather quick trading. After hitting a low of nearly 130.400 on early Monday morning – a value last seen on the 6^th of June, the USD/JPY currency pair has risen in value. Traders who thought the perceived ‘overbought’ days of the USD/JPY were coming to an end, and wagered on a one way direction downwards should pause to reconsider their strategy.

Technical Charts are Important, but Central Bank policies Matter and Uncertainty Remains

The ability of the USD/JPY to rapidly gain the past couple of days and the knowledge it is approaching important resistance levels again should cause contemplation for speculators who were convinced strong reversals higher would cease.  Yes, on the 27^th of July the USD/JPY was trading near the 137.480 realm before financial houses reacted to the interest rate hike from the U.S Federal Reserve. The selloff which followed was strong, but perhaps it was too strong.

• The upwards trajectory displayed the past few days of trading shows nervous sentiment remains sizeable regarding the USD/JPY, as a lack of clarity about U.S central bank policy stays murky.
• Tomorrow’s Average Hourly Earnings data from the U.S should be monitored and may have an effect on USD/JPY trading conditions.

If the USD/JPY can maintain its current values near the 134.000 level, this consolidation may be a sign financial houses are awaiting more insight from U.S data on the schedule tomorrow. Yes, the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers are due Friday, but it is the earnings data which should be watched closely.

If the hourly pay statistics comes in stronger than expected, the U.S Fed will have little choice but to remain hawkish regarding its interest rate policy. U.S Manufacturing and Services PMI data has been stronger than expected already this week.

Traders should not Expect Consolidation to Remain and Volatility is Likely

The USD/JPY could find a retest of the 133.750 to 133.250 values easily with reversals lower.  However, while U.S data stands in the shadows which could signal ‘the need’ for additional actions from the U.S Federal Reserve, financial houses may not be large sellers. The opportunity to look for slight reversals lower and place a buying position by day traders may prove enticing for short term wagers looking for upside. The near term is likely to provide additional fireworks for USD/JPY traders and further moves higher may be demonstrated.

USD/JPY Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 134.350

Current Support: 133.690

High Target: 134.970

Low Target: 131.120

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

After trading near highs early this week not seen since the third week of June, the NZD/USD currency pair has started to look technically bearish again.

The NZD/USD is mirroring results seen in many Forex spheres the past two days of trading; suddenly the USD has gotten stronger again.  As of this writing the NZD/USD is trading near 0.62900, which is actually close to interesting resistance up above.

If the 0.63000 mark gets challenged and sustains value above, this could be taken as a sign by some technical traders that additional buying action may ensue. However, traders may want to remain realistic regarding their upwards targets and keep their ambitions rooted with solid risk management, including take profits that cash out winnings before the potential of downturns following.

USD/NZD may have additional territory to Explore Downwards in the Near Term

On the 2^nd of August the NZD/USD was trading fractionally higher compared to today, and the 0.63000 level started to become resistance technically.  Prior to this on Monday the 1^st of August the NZD/USD was traversing near the 0.63540 ratio before losing ground, the last time those highs were seen was on the 21^st of June. However, before traders become convinced the long term bearish trend of the NZD/USD is about to vanish completely, they should understand the global economic climate remains challenging. The sudden downturn of the NZD/USD may prove durable in the near term.

The Move Higher in the NZD/USD has lost Power and Resistance is beginning to Flourish

If the value of the NZD/USD remains under the 0.63000 level for a sustained amount of time today and head’s into tomorrow with tests of support levels, this could spur on further downside momentum. Traders hoping for reversals upwards should be willing to look for quick hitting positions.

From a risk reward scenario near term in the NZD/USD, there appears to be reasons to suspect nervous sentiment is again building, and a risk of more selling pressure could emerge. Traders may become nervous as ‘chirping’ from U.S Federal Reserve officials have been quick to point out this week they believe more interest rate hikes are needed, not only one more in September.

Technically if the 0.62790 mark begins to falter, additional selling may build which could create a quick test of yesterday’s ratios near the 0.62600 to 0.62500 to be exhibited. Traders should expect some volatility for the NZD/USD the next two days of trading as financial houses continue to search for equilibrium in rather unclear Forex conditions fundamentally, which are bound to cause choppy conditions.

NZD/USD Short Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.62998

Current Support: 0.62790

High Target: 0.63185

Low Target: 0.61940

Ready to trade today’s Gold prediction? Here’s a list of some of the best XAU/USD brokers to check out.

The USD/MXN surged higher yesterday with a rapid movement that likely took many speculators by surprise and may have proven expensive.

Yesterday’s trading in the USD/MXN is a stark reminder for speculators that risk management is essential. Traders who were calmly seeking downside momentum on Tuesday on slight reversals higher after Monday’s lows traversing near 20.24000, may have suffered a death blow if they were not using stop losses yesterday and were over leveraged.

At one point yesterday the USD/MXN was tranquilly trading near the 20.51000 vicinity and may have looked like a good place to launch a short position. Short term day traders looking at technical charts may have viewed this juncture as a solid place to ignite a selling position. However, with a few lightning bolts, the USD/MXN was suddenly trading near a high of 20.83200. As of this writing the USD/MXN has come off of its highs and is traversing near 20.71000 with rather fast conditions still being demonstrated.

USD/MXN Express Train Upwards is a reason to be Suspicious and Extremely Careful

The move in the USD/MXN the past few days serves as a friendly reminder that Forex is not for the weak of heart. The vicious move higher can be explained by pundits by saying that growth forecasts in Mexico came in better than expected, but frankly it does not make sense – the Mexican peso should logically get stronger because of this result. Some may point to the lack of clarity regarding U.S Federal Reserve policy however that is suspicious thinking too, because clarity has been in short supply for a while.

• Traders should brace for the potential of further whipsaw results in the USD/MXN and use risk taking tactics with sincere care today.
• Yesterday’s massive buying spree will likely produce additional volatility as financial houses try to find equilibrium with the USD/MXN currency pair, which may cause further pain for day traders.

Support Levels need to be monitored and Speculators may Find Selling Tempting

Speculators who survived yesterday’s price action may be tempted to sell the USD/MXN if support levels start to look vulnerable.  Because of the elevator like ride upwards yesterday, support near the 20.69000 level should be watched carefully. This price which is very close to actual trading as of this writing could prove crucial. If it is broken lower and the 20.68000 to 20.65000 vicinities again are flirted with, it could mean selling pressure will reignite.

Yesterday’s buying surge after lows were tested on Friday and Monday which tested values not seen since early July, is a warning sign for traders that volatility is always possible in the USD/MXN. It could also mean there are speculative opportunities to sell and look for downside action, but risk management is crucial. Stay alert.

USD/MXN Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 20.75800

Current Support: 20.68300

High Target: 20.82890

Low Target: 20.55900

Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best Forex brokers to choose from.

After reversing from its highs achieved last week, the USD/CAD has found what appears to be durable short-term support and moved upwards this morning.

The USD/CAD is trading near the 1.30045 vicinity of this writing.  After falling through the 1.30000 mark on the 8^th of July, in early trading this Monday the USD/CAD currency pair has been able to muster upwards bullish behavior and is again threatening key resistance levels which if toppled could spark additional speculative action to the upside.

Bullish Behavior in USD/CAD has started to Build Again via Technical Action

The USD/CAD continues to traverse within a range that is challenging long term highs which have not seen a serious test of values above the 1.31000 mark since November 2020. Fundamentally the price of energy products remains high, but oil has seen some of its higher values erode over the past few weeks incrementally and other commodity prices have begun to stumble as well. This is not written as a prediction that crude oil prices are going to remain stable and even move lower, merely an observation of market action and the potential that inflation threats are starting to de-escalate.

• The USD/CAD 1.30000 mark remains a critical psychological mark for traders.
• If the USD/CAD breaks above and sustains the 1.30100 level it could be a bullish signal.

The USD/CAD was able to touch a high of nearly 1.30880 on the 5^th of July.  On the 6^th of July the price of the USD/CAD currency pair once again moved towards this mark, but the price reversed lower and on the 8^th of July the Forex pair touch nearly 1.29355. In early trading today after testing these depths again, the USD/CAD has begun to climb and its ability to topple the 1.30000 with relative ease is noteworthy.

A Slight Move Higher Could Signal Bullish Behavior has Room to Roam in USD/CAD

The USD/CAD remains within the upper tiers of its value technically and while the run higher on the 5^th of July did run out of power, it remains an interesting target for traders with a bullish perspective.  If the USD/CAD is able to break above the 1.30100 resistance level which is relatively nearby this could be a signal that buying firepower could cause technical traders to believe speculative positions aiming for the 1.30150 to 1.30200 could be intriguing wagers, particularly considering the USD/CAD traded near 1.30300 at the end of last week.

Bullish speculators should practice their risk management wisely. The USD/CAD like all other Forex pairs is proving volatile within the current trading landscaped due to complications the U.S Federal Reserve is causing via its interest rate policy and its unclear outlook as U.S economic conditions seemingly offer conflicting data on a daily basis.

Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.30125

Current Support: 1.29850

High Target: 1.30525

Low Target: 1.29100

This is a market in that I think we will continue to see a lot of noisy volatility.

The US dollar rallied significantly on Tuesday to show strength yet again against emerging market currencies, in this case, the Brazilian real. The market is currently breaking above the 5.39 level and threatening the 5.40 area. This is a market where the trend is most decidedly to the upside, now that we have broken above a massive “W pattern.” This “W pattern” is a bullish sign, and if you remember the last time that I covered this pair, I had suggested that the recent pullback had been much shallower than the one before it, so it does suggest that we are getting ready to go higher. We have seen that happen already, and now it looks like we are getting ready to go toward the 5.70 level.

The 200-day EMA sits just below the 5.20 level and is rising. In other words, this is an area that should be supported, perhaps even defining the trend in general. That being said, the market is likely to continue to find plenty of buyers, and I think that we will continue the uptrend over the longer term. After all, the market is going to favor the US dollar when we have a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the overall flow of money, and of course the lack of growth around the world. After all, Brazil is a commodity economy, and commodities have an outsized effect on the BRL.

The US dollar has been strong against almost everything and you need to pay close attention to these emerging market currencies, because they can give you a bit of a “heads up” as to where we may be heading over the longer term. With this in mind, it looks like the US dollar is going to continue to strengthen, and I think we probably have plenty of runway to the upside.

If we were to break down below the 5.10 level, then we will threaten the 5.00 level, which is the “bottom of the market.” If we were to break down below there, then it would be a massive turnaround in this marketplace. Ultimately, this is a market in that I think we will continue to see a lot of noisy volatility.