Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

• Risk 0.50%.
• None of yesterday’s buy or sell transactions were activated

Best selling entry points

Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33

• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

Entering a long position with a pending order from 17.98 levels

• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.74.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Turkish Lira Analysis

The Turkish Lira witnessed some decline during early trading this morning, although the pair remained within a limited trading range. Early this morning data showed an improvement in consumer confidence in Turkey, according to data from the country’s statistics authority. The consumer confidence index rose to 72.2 points in August, compared to 68 points last month. The index hit its highest level in five months. The good data is not expected to be reflected in a large way on the price of the lira, especially after the statements of Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday, in which he adhered to a stimulus monetary policy aimed at lowering the interest rate. The forecasts of the Turkish Central Bank, which were published earlier this month, showed that the dollar may rise to levels of 20 lira by the end of this year.

USD/TRY Technical Outlook

The USD/TRY traded near its highest levels during 2022, the pair continued to trade within a narrow trading range, which is shown on the chart. The pair is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The pair traded the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 18.08 and 17.98 levels, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.16 and 18.33, respectively. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still weak, as the pair is heading in a general bullish direction in general. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

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The USD/CAD had a stormy day of trading on Monday and early today suggests speculative forces may be standing by for more price action.

The USD/CAD is trading near the 1.29000 mark as of this writing. Traders are urged to compare the current price of the USD/CAD currency pair as they are reading this article to view differentials. Speculative positions seemingly were ignited yesterday, as financial houses may have been trying to get ahead of the Canadian Consumer Price Index data which will be released later today.

Monday’s Early Lows Abruptly saw Plenty of Buying in the USD/CAD

Early yesterday the USD/CAD was trading near the 1.27750 ratio in a rather comfortable manner. The price action matched values seen on Friday and the USD/CAD seem situated for tranquil trading. However, within a matter of hours the USD/CAD began to challenge the 1.280000 level. When the 1.28000 mark was penetrated a strong burst of buying became evident and a high of 1.29300 was touched rather quickly.

• Inflation data via the Canadian CPI is likely being speculated on by financial houses, via their perceptions regarding the outcome and it is affecting the USD/CAD.
• Traders may choose to be cautious if they do not have positions yet in the USD/CAD, and wait for the CPI results to be published before pursuing the currency pair.

The fact the USD/CAD jumped higher may indicate financial houses are wagering on the anticipated outcome in the Canadian CPI inflation statistics today. However, traders need to be cautious, because if the number comes in higher than expected, the old adage of buy the rumor and sell the fact may come into play. In other words short term speculators should remain conservative if they have weak stomachs and limited funds. Waiting for the result of the CPI to be published could be wise.

The USD/CAD is near important Resistance but has been higher in the past month

If the CPI number meets expectations today, this still may result in choppy trading. The central bank of Canada has been hawkish and is mirroring the U.S Federal Reserve in many respects. However, traders also need to consider that the 1.29250 to 1.29500 marks may be viewed as too high by many financial houses short term.

Yes, the USD/CAD spiked to 1.32000 in mid-July, but is a return of those highs likely in the near term, likely no. If the CPI number is much higher than expected, this could actually make some analyst believe the USD/CAD could go into a selling mode, because the Bank of Canada may have to act strongly with more strident interest rate hikes. Traders should be careful today with the USD/CAD.

Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.29240

Current Support: 1.28820

High Target: 1.29740

Low Target: 1.27840

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The pair will likely keep falling as bears target the key resistance at 1.2000.

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.200.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2200.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2166 and a take-profit at 1.2250.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2100.

The GBP/USD price continued in a consolidation phase as investors waited for a statement by Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey and the release of the country’s financial stability report. The pair is trading at 1.2100, which is slightly below Monday’s high of 1.2166.

Andrew Bailey Statement

The GBP/USD will be in the spotlight as Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, the head of the BOE. He will speak as the bank launches the financial stability report that will provide more information about the economy and the banking sector.

Bailey will likely not make any new news in his speech. In an ECB event last week, he lamented that the UK economy was weakening at a rapid rate than anticipated. Indeed, the economy contracted in April and May and analysts expect that it declined in Q2.

Other leading economic data have sent warnings about the economy. For example, numbers by the Nationwide Society revealed that the house price index declined in June as mortgage rates jumped. Further data by Gfk showed that the country’s consumer confidence declined sharply as consumer inflation surged.

The GBP/USD pair will also react to the upcoming UK services and composure PMI numbers. These are important leading indicators that provide a gauge about the country’s economy. Based on the flash estimates published recently, analysts expect the data to show that the services PMI dropped to 53.4 while the composite on fell to 53.1. Still, since the PMI is above 50, it is a sign that output in the country is still strong.

The pair will also react to the reopening of Wall Street since American markets were closed on Monday for Independence Day celebrations. The next important catalyst for the GBP/USD price will be the upcoming American jobs data.

GBP/USD Forecast

The 4H chart reveals that the GBP/USD pair formed a break and retest pattern. It retested the important resistance level of 1.2166, which was the lowest point on June 23rd. The pair remained below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below the neutral point at 50.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the key resistance at 1.2000. A move above the resistance at 1.2166 will invalidate the bearish view.

Right now it’s very unlikely that we can keep up this type of momentum.

The Nikkei 225 had spiked initially during the trading session on Thursday but gave back the gains at the ¥28,400 level to form a massive shooting star. Because of this, it’s likely that the market is going to continue to see a lot of pushback in this area, and as we are a little overdone at this point, would not be a huge surprise to see this market pullback. The ¥27,600 level is an area that the 200 Day EMA sits at, but whether or not it holds remains to be seen. After all, being stretched the way we are suggesting that we are due for that pullback.

On the other hand, if we were to break above the ¥28,700 level then it’s likely that the market could go higher and reach the ¥29,200 level. That would be an explosion to the outside, but right now it’s very unlikely that we can keep up this type of momentum. This is especially true considering how many concerns there are around the world, but the one thing that Japan has going for it is that its currency is getting eviscerated. This helps the fact that the Japanese economy is so heavily weighted to exports, but it also can cause major issues for the populace.

The 50 Day EMA is starting to curl higher, and if it can cross the 200 Day EMA, then it would open up the possibility of a “golden cross”, which is a very bullish sign. At this point, the market will probably have a lot of people jumping into the market, but I think the only thing that you can count on is that we are going to see a lot of choppy volatility.

The question now is whether or not we are in the process of forming a “double top”, so if we do pullback I would anticipate that more sellers jump in. On the other hand, if we break above the high that was made at the end of March, that would be a significant breakout. Ultimately, the Japanese equity markets will more likely than not follow the rest of the world, which doesn’t look that impressive at the moment. Pay close attention to the Bank of Japan, because they are currently fighting interest rates rising, but eventually, they may have to give up.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 29,00 and a take-profit at 28,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 32,000.
• Timeline: 1 day

Bullish View

• Place a buy-stop at 30.500 and a take-profit at 32,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 29,500.

The BTC/USD declined sharply in he overnight session as its recovery hit a strong resistance at 31,426. It dropped to 29,500, its lowest level since Saturday.

Bitcoin Slow Recovery

Bitcoin has been in a narrow range in the past few weeks. In this period, the coin has remained between the important support at $28,368 and resistance point at $31,500.

Bitcoin’s declined happened as stocks and other assets erased earlier gains. On Monday, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices rose by more than 0.50% but pared gains towards the close. Their futures show that they have dropped by more than 0.30%.

The coin is falling ahead of the coming Consensus event that will take place in Texas starting from Thursay. This is one of the most important events in the blockchain industry as it features some of the most important players in the sector.

Some of the most notable speakers in this meeting will be Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX, Abby Johnson of Fidelity, Dan Schulman of PayPal, and Changpeng Zhao of Binance. Still, it is unlikely that the event will cause major movements in Bitcoin this week.

The BTC/USD pair is also reacting to the decision by New York politicians to ban Proof-of-Work, which is the technology that allows Bitcoin mining. The bill will now be sent to Governor Hochul, who is expected to sign it into law. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that there is more inflow among Bitcoin buyers.

BTC/USD Forecast

Bitcoin has been in a tight range in the past few weeks after it crashed to the lowest level in months. It has already dropped by more than 50% from its all-time high while the total market cap has dropped to about $600 billion.

On the four-hour chart, we see that the pair dropped sharply after it hit the important resistance at 31,426.As it dropped, it moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the MACD has dropped below the neutral point.

The BTC/USD pair is also slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will continue its bearish breakout as bears target the key support at 28,500.A move above Monday’s high of 31,426 will invalidate the bearish view.

We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially after the pair closed above the 16.40 resistance levels.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy trade of Thursday was activated and reached the stop loss point

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 17.11 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.26.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a direct order from 16.58 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.32.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.00

The Turkish lira returned to record new losses against the US dollar after data during the past week showed that inflation in the country rose to its highest level in nearly a quarter of a century. The lira stabilized for two days in an itch that analysts attributed to the intervention of the Turkish Central in the markets before returning to decline again during this morning, as the Turkish currency is approaching its lowest levels during the past year, as it recorded a decline during the current year by 20%, to become the worst performing currency in 2021. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the inflation data for the month of May that inflation has reached its highest levels and is on the way to decline. Meanwhile, press reports quoted Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nabati’s statements at the ruling Justice and Development Party meeting at the end of last week that no decision has been taken to raise or lower interest rates in the near term.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell against the dollar to its lowest level this year during today’s trading. The lira surpassed the main resistance levels at 16.40. The pair also continued trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. Referring to the general upward trend, the pair also maintained its trading above the bullish trend shown on the chart. At the same time, the pair is trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at 16.40 and 16.00 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.11. We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially after the pair closed above the 16.40 resistance levels. Each pullback on the pair represents an opportunity to buy back. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

  Chart generated by TradingView

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tIqIopiX/

The C$1.27 level underneath could be a potential target for the short term.

The US dollar has rallied initially during the trading session on Thursday to reach the 1.29 area. This area was the top of a previous consolidation area that we have been stuck and for a while. Because of this, it is not a huge surprise to see that we pulled back a bit, especially as the Canadian dollar correlates with the crude oil market that is relatively strong. Speaking of crude oil, crude oil had a very good day after initially selling off, showing an almost mirror image to this chart.

At this point, a lot is going to be made about whether or not the US dollar can continue to strengthen. It is overbought in general, and the Canadian dollar does tend to fare relatively well against the greenback unless something is going on in the crude oil market that makes it particularly toxic. The idea that there is still a serious supply issue when it comes to crude oil is certainly something that is going to help the Canadian dollar in general. That being said, I do not necessarily think that we are suddenly going to see Loonie strength, rather we may just see a short-term pullback into the same region that we have been in.

The 50 Day EMA is near the 1.2635 level and is rising. It has just crossed above the 200 Day EMA as well, but I would not pay too much attention to the so-called “golden cross” because the moving averages are relatively flat. The candlestick for the day looks as if it is going to end up forming a shooting star, which gives you yet another reason to think that perhaps the resistance could hold. That being said, if we were to break above the 1.29 level, the market will likely go looking to test the 1.30 level above, an area that also has a certain amount of resistance built into it, not only from a structural standpoint but from a psychological standpoint as well.

As things stand right now, it looks as if we are going to stay within the overall consolidation area, perhaps giving a little bit of a reprieve to the Canadian dollar in the short term. The C$1.27 level underneath could be a potential target for the short term.

Expect choppy volatility, but that has been the way this pair has traded for several months now anyway, so it should not be a huge surprise at this point.

The euro fell rather hard on Wednesday to reach the 1.05 area. This is an area where we have seen a lot of action in previously, and it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The 1.05 level would cause a lot of headline noise, and we have bounced well over 60 pips from that area. Because of this, I think it is probably only a matter of time before we have to bounce after this massive selloff.

This being said, I do not want to buy the euro. In fact, I think that any significant rally you see at this point should end up being a nice opportunity to short this market yet again. The 1.08 level above should act as a bit of a ceiling in the market, and then we have the 50-day EMA which is rapidly approaching the 1.0933 level, an area where we had seen previous resistance as well.

Whether or not we can break down below the 1.05 level is a completely different question, but it certainly would not be surprising at this point. A rally at this juncture will more than likely continue to attract sellers given enough time due to the fact that the overall momentum of the market has been so negative. The Federal Reserve continues to be very hawkish with its statements, and as a result, the market will have to deal with the idea of higher interest rates in the United States. On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, we have the European Central Bank which is stuck in a situation where they cannot raise interest rates very rapidly because although there is inflation and there are energy concerns. An economy that does not have energy is not an economy that is going to grow very much.

Currently, I believe this pair is oversold and a bounce is almost certain. The bounce should be a nice opportunity so I am going to step out of the way and perhaps try to pick up “cheap dollars” at higher levels. Expect choppy volatility, but that has been the way this pair has traded for several months now anyway, so it should not be a huge surprise at this point. The fact that we bounced as hard as we did does suggest that we are ready to turn around for the short term.