Important – xMetaMarkets.com / Online Innovative Trading Facility Mon, 29 Aug 2022 18:18:05 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 /wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cropped-Logo-menu-32x32.png Important – xMetaMarkets.com / 32 32 Important Resistance in View, Bulls Threaten Highs /2022/08/29/important-resistance-in-view-bulls-threaten-highs/ /2022/08/29/important-resistance-in-view-bulls-threaten-highs/#respond Mon, 29 Aug 2022 18:18:05 +0000 /2022/08/29/important-resistance-in-view-bulls-threaten-highs/ [ad_1]

The relative calm of August trading is likely to fully disappear in the coming days, as traders react to more nervous sentiment and the USD/ZAR could prove very choppy.

The USD/ZAR is trading near the 17.00000 level as of this writing, as bullish speculation gets plenty of consideration.

The USD/ZAR is trading within sight of the 17.00000 with active price action abundant.  On cue in the midst of the storm created by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, the USD/ZAR currency pair went from a low of nearly 16.71000 to 16.90000 without much hesitation. Via early transactions this morning the USD/ZAR has continued to move incrementally higher and is touching key psychological ratios near 17.00000.

17.00000 Could prove to be Lynchpin for Dynamic Movement in USD/ZAR this week

It may seem quite simple to say the 17.00000 is important psychologically, but having broken this ratio higher already in July and only last week, the USD/ZAR may start to create a group of ‘backers’ who believe the forex pair should be above this level fundamentally for the time being . Global market conditions remain nervous and last week’s Jackson Hole central bankers’ conference has done little to soothe the minds of financial houses.

Technically the 17.00000 has been punctured enough in recent memory to have created a framework of belief this level can prove vulnerable again.  If the 17.00000 level is toppled and the 17.05000 mark begins to be flirted with it could set the stage for another round of dynamic speculative buying. Only one week ago the USD/ZAR touched the 17.13600 mark. And in July the USD/ZAR traded above 17.20000.

Traders need to be prepared for the Potential of a rather Turbulent Week in the USD/ZAR

  • The relative calm of August trading is likely to fully disappear in the coming days, as traders react to more nervous sentiment and the USD/ZAR could prove very choppy.
  • Global conditions in Forex remain intense as a strong USD causes problems with a handful of emerging market currencies; the USD/ZAR is reflecting this whirlwind of results as it tests highs.

Speculators should not be overly ambitious in the short term.  Quick hitting trades which look for realistic targets may prove to produce the best results in the near term. If sustained trading takes place above the 17.00000 level this will spark intrigue for the USD/ZAR and could allure more bullish sentiment.

However, the USD/ZAR will need to sustain value above the 17.14000 ratio in order to build a strong surge higher which then tests July’s highs. If the USD/ZAR were to stumble to the 16.93000 to 16.87000 ratios it may be tempting as a place to ignite buying positions based on the notion more upside price movement will occur.

USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 17.04900

Current Support: 16.93200

High Target: 17.15800

Low Target: 16.81000

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Anticipating Important Events /2022/08/17/eur-usd-technical-analysis-anticipating-important-events/ /2022/08/17/eur-usd-technical-analysis-anticipating-important-events/#respond Wed, 17 Aug 2022 13:45:46 +0000 /2022/08/17/eur-usd-technical-analysis-anticipating-important-events/ [ad_1]

Since the start of this week’s trading, the price of EUR/USD has been subjected to strong selling operations. As a result, it pushed towards the support level of 1.0122 before settling around the level of 1.0166 at the time of writing the analysis. The markets were strong with the announcement of the growth rate of the euro zone economy, then the announcement of the US retail numbers. The most important factor for the current market strength is the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

Analysts say that the recent developments in the energy markets in the Eurozone maintain the case for further depreciation of the Euro. Accordingly, the single currency in the Eurozone extended below the recent highs against the dollar and the British pound due to energy market developments which showed the European standard energy prices rising above €500 for the first time.

The developments threaten to put more pressure on businesses in the region in the coming months.

German energy for next year rose 5.2% to 502 euros/megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange on Tuesday. This represents a 500% increase in the last year. Commenting on this, Ole S Hansen, commodities analyst at Saxo Bank, says the EU’s gas and energy situation continues to deteriorate with the euro suffering as a result. European gas prices continued to rise as European countries continued to put pressure on demand in order to fill storage tanks before winter, amid continued pressure on supplies from Russia.

The European Gas Index – the TTF – rose 6.5% to its highest intraday price since early March.

Costs will rise at gas power plants in the eurozone, but electricity prices are under greater pressure due to lower production from nuclear power plants in France amid low river water levels and maintenance issues. Energy imports from Scandinavia have also been threatened by low levels of hydroelectric dams. An anticipation of suboptimal economic output is likely to further deteriorate the eurozone’s current account position, according to economists. The current account, the eurozone’s bank balance with the rest of the world, fell into a deficit in 2022 amid rising import costs and falling exports.

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Euro forecast against the dollar:

There is no change in my technical view of the performance of the EUR/USD currency pair.

  • The reaction of economic data and important events will have a strong impact on the currency pair for the remainder of this week’s trading.
  • We still expect EUR/USD gains to remain a selling target as divergence in economic performance and the future of monetary policy tightening remain ultimately in favor of a stronger US dollar.
  • According to the current performance, breaking the support 1.0120 will support expectations of moving towards the parity price and below it. On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart below, the movement of the bulls towards the resistance levels at 1.0320 and 1.0400 will be important to change the general trend to the upside.

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EURUSD

 

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: 1.05 Support Breakout Important /2022/06/29/eur-usd-technical-analysis-1-05-support-breakout-important/ /2022/06/29/eur-usd-technical-analysis-1-05-support-breakout-important/#respond Wed, 29 Jun 2022 16:31:32 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/06/29/eur-usd-technical-analysis-1-05-support-breakout-important/ [ad_1]

The European Central Bank appears ready to start its interest rate raising cycle with a bold 50 basis point increase, according to recent statements from some of the bank’s monetary policy officials. Therefore, the euro strengthened against the dollar and the rest of the other major currencies. This came after ECB member Martins Kazak said that it is worth looking at a 50 basis point rise in July, even if a 25 basis point move is still the default. However, the EUR/USD pair failed to maintain the rebound gains towards the 1.0605 resistance, as it retreated to the 1.0503 support level and settled around it at the time of writing the analysis.

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The official added to Bloomberg TV that if the ECB raises the interest rate by 25 basis points in July, a 50 basis point move will be needed in September. “If we see that the situation has worsened and that inflation is high and we see negative news in terms of inflation expectations, then in my view, preloading an increase would be a reasonable option,” Kazak added.

Viraj Patel, an analyst at Vanda Research, says a 50 basis point rise in July “will happen. The ECB has a small window to make the spikes…hawks know it’s ‘a moment of now or never’. Any EZ CPI that wins this week will push the ECB to do 50 basis points in July.”

Overall, the euro-dollar exchange rate has already risen by a third of a percent this week amid improved global market sentiment and expectations that the European Central Bank will begin to bridge the interest rate gap that exists between it and the US Federal Reserve with a number of rate increases.

“The market should not deviate from the speed of repricing and jump to much higher interest rate levels,” Kazak said in June. But the hint of a 50bp move in July suggests it may be tempted to bring the ECB’s deposit rate back to 0% quickly. This will be a busy week for ECB interest rate policy as central bankers descend on Sintra, Portugal for the ECB’s annual meeting.

However, it can be argued that the FX markets will be more interested in how the European Central Bank handles the issue of maintaining a lid on Italian and Greek bond yields as interest rates rise. This is part of the “fragmentation” argument: some eurozone countries are in a better financial position than others and will inevitably see the yield they pay on their debt (bonds) rise faster.

This could destabilize the Euro-Zone and thus represents a major risk to the Euro outlook. However, the European Central Bank said it has the tools to ensure that the difference in bond yields between different countries remains stable, thus containing risks.

Reuters quoted sources in the European Central Bank as saying that there is a plan in the near future that will see the European Central Bank continue to buy bonds of weak countries, which would put a cap on the return paid by these bonds, and thus put a cap on borrowing costs. But to offset this stimulus, the ECB will drain liquidity from elsewhere in the system, potentially offering banks attractive interest rates for the ECB’s cash stalemate according to Reuters.

EUR/USD analysis today:

As I mentioned before, the breach of the 1.0500 support level will remain important for a stronger and continuous control of the bears over the price performance of the EUR/USD currency pair. Accordingly, the following support levels may be 1.0425 and 1.0380, which will move the technical indicators towards strong oversold levels through which one may think about Buy back EURUSD. On the other hand, breaking the resistance levels 1.0670 and 1.0800 is important to start breaking the current general bearish trend. The euro-dollar pair will react to the announcement of the growth rate of the US economy and the statements of Fed officials, Powell, and ECB Governor Lagarde.

EURUSD

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Important Event for the Markets /2022/06/22/important-event-for-the-markets/ /2022/06/22/important-event-for-the-markets/#respond Wed, 22 Jun 2022 14:11:03 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/06/22/important-event-for-the-markets/ [ad_1]

The state of cautious anticipation still dominates the global financial markets, including of course the forex market. This is until the most important event for this week passes, which is the testimony of US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell. Prior to that, the EUR/USD price is stuck in a narrow range with a stable bearish bias around the 1.0525 level at the time of writing the analysis. The impact of Jerome Powell’s statements will determine the future price of the US dollar against other major currencies.

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In general, the price of the euro could benefit in the coming period if the European Central Bank (ECB) turns the fragmented economic landscape of the European continent in its favor. It can do this by combining quantitative tightening (QT) and quantitative easing (QE) in order to normalize its monetary policy without disturbing. There is currently no such thing as QTQE, but at least it looks like it will solve a problem that ECB staff has hastily tried since last week’s unscheduled Governing Council meeting and is a solution that could offer other advantages for the ECB, the euro rate and Europe’s economies as well.

The ECB can use PEPP assets to implement both quantitative easing and quantitative tightening in a way that increases the market form of monetary tightening where it is most needed while simultaneously reducing that occurring in parts of the bloc where it is already more than enough.

For its part, the European Central Bank said after its unscheduled meeting last Wednesday: “The pandemic has left permanent weaknesses in the eurozone economy that are already contributing to the uneven transition of our monetary policy normalization across jurisdictions.” European Central Bank policy makers acknowledged after their ad hoc meeting that some measures of the aforementioned nature are necessary to prevent a devastating scramble, if not entirely speculative in the bond markets of some Eurozone members.

Taken to an extreme, this could force the bank to choose between allowing a financial crisis to occur in southern Europe or carrying out its primary mission of curbing inflation at levels around the 2% target. The European Central Bank asked officials last week to “accelerate the completion of the design of a new anti-fragmentation instrument for Governing Council consideration”, after the spread between Italian and German 10-year government bond yields widened to levels that had been a cause for concern in the bank.

This result mostly reflected a self-fulfilling prophecy about market concerns about what might happen to government finances and financial systems in places like Italy once the European Central Bank starts raising interest rates in July.

Some analysts now expect the European Central Bank to revive one of its crisis-period initiatives such as the Stock Market Program (SMP) in May 2010 or the Outstanding Monetary Transactions Program (OMT) in August 2012 to ease financial conditions in parts of the bloc while tightening others .

EUR/USD Technical Outlook:

The EUR/USD exchange rate is still facing downward pressure and the bears may control the trend in case the euro price moves below the $1.0500 level. The bears will have the right to move towards stronger descending levels and the closest ones after that are 1.0425 and 1.0380, respectively. From the last level and below it, the technical indicators will move towards oversold levels.

The forecast for the EUR/USD may turn upward if the currency pair returns to the vicinity of the resistance levels 1.0780 and 1.0865, respectively. The reason for the recent drop in the euro-dollar price is due to the clear contrast between the future of monetary policy tightening between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, which is in favor of the strength of the US dollar in the end.

EURUSD

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Awaits Important Trading Week /2022/06/13/eur-usd-technical-analysis-awaits-important-trading-week/ /2022/06/13/eur-usd-technical-analysis-awaits-important-trading-week/#respond Mon, 13 Jun 2022 13:47:44 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/06/13/eur-usd-technical-analysis-awaits-important-trading-week/ [ad_1]

The hopes of euro investors quickly evaporated in the recent hawkish statements from European Central Bank officials headed by Lagarde about the approaching date for raising the ECB interest rate 11 years ago. The EUR/USD currency pair tumbled from the resistance level 1.0773 to the support level 1.0506 and is stabilizing around the level 1.0515 at the beginning of this important week’s trading. We indicated when the euro’s recent gains will not last long because the US Federal Reserve will be the fastest and strongest in raising interest rates than the European Central.

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Currently, traders are seeking the European Central Bank’s support to smash bonds with the approach of price hikes. Markets are not convinced that the European Central Bank can raise interest rates and maintain bond yields for the most indebted eurozone members at the same time. Italy, one of the countries most exposed to rising borrowing costs, saw its 10-year debt drop after the biggest drop since the pandemic, as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde outlined plans last Thursday to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade.

Meanwhile, the spread on German bonds approached towards levels that recently prompted the European Central Bank to start buying sovereign debt in an effort to stabilize the currency bloc as Covid-19 swept the continent in March 2020.

Investors are concerned about the lack of a credible plan to tackle so-called fragmentation – unjustified jumps in borrowing costs for weaker eurozone countries compared to stronger economies. Some say that only the new instrument, separate from previous bond-buying programs, can contain the spreads. Commenting on this, Nicholas Forrest, head of global fixed income at Candriam, a $180 billion asset manager, said: “This is an ‘whatever it takes’ moment for Lagarde. He was referring to a speech by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who pledged to ensure the safety of the eurozone at all costs as the sovereign debt crisis erupted in 2012.

Meanwhile, Forrest is particularly cautious about Italian and Spanish debt given the volatility and potential for increased bond issuance from those countries. “The European Central Bank will need to avoid policy mistakes,” he said.

Global central banks face an unstable equilibrium process as they seek to combat rising prices without disrupting business activity. The situation in the eurozone is unique, with 19 disparate economies whose fiscal policies are not aligned. The fear is that without a plan, excessive widening of spreads could divert the ECB from its mission to combat inflation, forcing it to halt or even begin to reverse the rate-raising cycle.

What has so far been earmarked for retail processing – reinvestment from maturing debt accrued under the European Central Bank’s pandemic asset purchase program – is widely seen as insufficient. Programs like the outright cash transactions, which Draghi created during the last crisis, still exist, but are seen as too inflexible to be appropriate now.

A new machine is in the works as Bloomberg reported in April. Details are still scarce. Some analysts believe that spreads of around 250 basis points could prompt the European Central Bank to intervene, even if only by disclosing the instrument. We are not at those levels yet. The German-Italian bond spread is at 225bp – far from the 500bp gap seen in the worst days of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

But the uncertainty weakened the euro, erasing gains after Lagarde offered only vague reassurance that “if needed in the future we can design, we can deploy the right tool”.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: On the daily chart, the price of the euro currency pair against the dollar EUR/USD is moving towards the support level 1.0500. This which will support the bears’ control of the trend and prepare to move towards the stronger support levels that are closest to it. This is according to the performance over the time period 1.0460 and 1.03800, respectively, as the last level is support for the move of technical indicators towards oversold levels, from which a resumption of buying can be considered.

It must be considered that this week’s events are important and affect the forex market in general, and the US Central Bank’s announcement on Wednesday is the most influential, and the movement may remain in narrow ranges until this date. On the upside, the bulls should return to the vicinity of the 1.0795 and 1.1000 resistance levels, otherwise the general trend will remain bearish.

EURUSD

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Dow Jones Technical Analysis: Retests an Important Resistanc /2022/05/31/dow-jones-technical-analysis-retests-an-important-resistanc/ /2022/05/31/dow-jones-technical-analysis-retests-an-important-resistanc/#respond Tue, 31 May 2022 18:43:07 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/05/31/dow-jones-technical-analysis-retests-an-important-resistanc/ [ad_1]

We still expect the index to return to decline during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rise during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains for the sixth consecutive session, by 1.76%. It added to it about 575.77 points, to settle at the end of trading at the level of 33,212.97. This is after rising in trading on Wednesday by 1.61%. During the past week, the index rose by 6.24%, to break a weekly series of losses that lasted eight weeks, which is the longest recorded by the index since 1932.

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Inflation in the US as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index rose just 0.2% in April for the smallest monthly increase in a year and a half, largely due to lower gas prices. While gas prices subsequently rebounded, there were other signs that rising inflation may be easing.

Last year’s core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred metric, slowed over the past year to 4.9% from 5.2%, the second consecutive monthly decline. The last time the base rate saw a back-to-back decline was in the pandemic’s first few months in early 2020.

US stocks posted weekly gains amid some relief from the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes in early May. The Fed boosted its forecast of a half-point rate hike in the summer to fight inflation, but also indicated that it would remain flexible after that to reassess the economy.

However, hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller yesterday pushed back recent expectations that the Fed might take a breather after the increases in June and July.

Technically, the index continued to rise with its recent trading on intraday levels, to reach its recent rise to approaching retesting the important resistance level 33,271.90. This is amid the dominance of the bearish corrective trend and the index’s trading in a bearish price channel range that limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time. (Daily). The continuation of the negative pressure of its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days, causes us to notice that the relative strength indicators reached areas of overbought operations, and exaggeratedly compared to the movement of the index. This suggests that divergence is starting to be negative.

Therefore, we still expect the index to return to decline during its upcoming trading, especially if the resistance level 33,271.90 remains intact, to target the first major support levels 32,000.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Important Data Ahead /2022/05/17/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-important-data-ahead/ /2022/05/17/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-important-data-ahead/#respond Tue, 17 May 2022 16:46:02 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/05/17/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-important-data-ahead/ [ad_1]

Ahead of the release of a batch of important and influential British and US economic data, the GBP/USD exchange rate deepened in a downtrend for nearly a year. It may attempt a corrective recovery this week if global markets welcome the easing of restrictions related to the Corona virus in Shanghai. The sterling dollar pair is stable around the 1.2365 level at the time of writing the analysis, after three trading sessions during which it tried to recover from the last collapse towards the 1.2155 support level. The lowest level in two years, with the strong appreciation of the US currency combined with growing investor concerns about the prospects for the global economy, and the Chinese renminbi extending its massive sell-off in April during the sixth week.

This price action helped lift the US dollar index to its highest level since shortly after the turn of the new millennium before the global market tide turned in favor of the pound late in the European session on Friday, in the process of raising the pound to dollar price again above 1.22 before the weekend. Fortunately for the Pound, there may now be room to extend this recovery after authorities in China announced over the weekend that Shanghai would begin a gradual reopening from the country’s most dangerous “lockdown” to date in what is likely to be meaningful to market sentiment.

China’s shutdown of Shanghai in April has been a significant source of market risk aversion for the past six weeks because the city is home to the country’s largest seaport, which is also the world’s most important due to its importance in international supply chains and the manufacture of goods. This was the reason why the reopening could be a headwind for the safe-haven dollar and a tailwind for many other currencies that could mean an extension of the pound-dollar exchange rate rebound on Friday, although sterling could face technical resistance on the charts once again. Others are at 1.25 or higher.

While the pound against the dollar could benefit from a strong start this week, the risk is that Parliamentary testimony on Monday from policy makers at the Bank of England (BoE), or the subsequent flood of economic data including UK employment and inflation figures limiting From wanting sterling later.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: the recent rebound attempts did not amount to reversing the general trend of the GBP/USD currency pair, where the trend is still downward so far, and the resistance levels 1.2850 and 1.3000 are the most important to change the trend to the upside. According to the performance on the daily chart below, the return of the move towards the support level 1.2215 will strengthen expectations that it might be ready to move towards the psychological support 1.2000 at the earliest time.

The sterling will be affected today by the announcement of jobs and wages figures in Britain. The US dollar will be affected by the announcement of US retail sales and industrial production, and then statements by US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell.

GBPUSD

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Gold Technical Analysis: Prices Testing Important Level /2022/05/16/gold-technical-analysis-prices-testing-important-level/ /2022/05/16/gold-technical-analysis-prices-testing-important-level/#respond Mon, 16 May 2022 15:17:45 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/05/16/gold-technical-analysis-prices-testing-important-level/ [ad_1]

Gold futures fell during last week’s trading, officially erasing all their gains in 2022. The price of the yellow metal came under heavy pressure this month, supported by the Fed’s tightening efforts, the strength of the US dollar, and rising Treasury yields.

For now, the bull market appears to be over, even if inflation has risen significantly. The price of gold fell to the support level of $ 1799 for an ounce, the lowest price of the yellow metal in three months. We ended the week’s trading around the level of $ 1811 an ounce.

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In general, gold prices fell by 3.85% during the past week, bringing its decline since the beginning of the year 2022 to date to about 1%. Silver, the sister commodity to gold, joined the rally at the end of last week’s trading. Silver futures rose to $21.125 an ounce. The price of the white metal fell by more than 5.5% last week, adding to its decline during 2022 by about 10%.

All in all, gold prices are trading at their lowest in 14 months. Furthermore, gold is below the 200-day moving average, which is usually considered a bearish component. But will the precious metal maintain this downtrend? Not exactly, as some market analysts suggest.

Investors were selling gold due to the rally in the stock market and higher Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index each added more than 400 points, while the S&P 500 jumped nearly 100 points. The US Treasury market was green, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield rising 11.1 basis points to 2.928%. One-year yields rose 6.2 basis points to 1.958%, while the 30-year yield rose 11.7 basis points to 3.088%.

Gold is generally sensitive to a higher interest rate environment because it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Besides this, the dollar weakened as the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, fell to 104.47, from an opening at 104.77. A weak dollar is beneficial for dollar-priced commodities because it increases the cost of purchasing them for foreign investors.

Relative to the prices of other metals, copper futures rose to $4.1645 a pound. Platinum futures fell to $930.80 an ounce. Palladium futures advanced to $1,925.50 an ounce.

According to the technical analysis of gold: There is no doubt that the movement of the gold price below the psychological support level of 1800 dollars an ounce threatens the outlook for the rise of gold, but at the same time it may be an opportunity to think about seizing opportunities to buy after the recent selling operations. The most prominent support levels for the market are currently 1788 and 1760 dollars Straight. Despite the recent performance, I still prefer buying gold from every bearish level, and whoever bought and continued to decline is doing buy reinforcement trades. On the other hand, breaking the resistance of 1835 dollars an ounce on the daily chart will be important for the bulls in more momentum to return on its upward path.

Gold

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Important Momentum for Bulls /2022/05/09/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-important-momentum-for-bulls/ /2022/05/09/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-important-momentum-for-bulls/#respond Mon, 09 May 2022 17:36:54 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/05/09/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-important-momentum-for-bulls/ [ad_1]

The US dollar index DXY stalled as other currencies in the gauge found support after the US non-farm payrolls report showed a continued recovery in employment. 

This happened while wage growth slowed in April, with potential implications for the medium-term inflation outlook. The price of the USD/JPY currency pair continued to move within an ascending channel supported by the psychological top of 130.00 and recorded the 130.80 resistance near the highest in 20 years. It closed trading around the 130.55 level, which confirms the strength of the general bullish trend.

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The US job market rebound continued in April, especially at the lower end of the income range where the bulk of coronavirus-related job losses were concentrated, while wage growth fell more than expected by economists and even as labor force participation continued to stall. This was with the number of non-farm payrolls rising by 428 thousand, unchanged from March’s increase of 428 thousand but above the consensus of about 390 thousand among economists, while average hourly income growth fell from 0.5% to 0.3% and when many economists looked about 0.4%.

All of the above left the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%, which was a surprise to economists who were looking to see it fall to 3.5%, but it was enough to lower the annual pace of wage growth from 5.6% to 5.5%. Meanwhile, the overall level of workers’ participation in the workforce saw “little change” at 62.2% during the month of April, while the employment-to-total population ratio decreased from 60.1% to 60.0%.

All in all, the euro and Swedish krona maintained gains on Friday after the release while the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar remained near the middle of their daily ranges against the dollar. This led to the US dollar index being halted. Friday’s data confirms that the US labor market recovery remained in full swing last month. The stalled pace of wage growth was unhelpful for currency and bond markets, which remained as “tight” as they were even before Wednesday’s federal policy decision.

The US Federal Reserve appears to be ruling out for the time being any possibility of raising US interest rates in increases of more than 50 basis points, while also taking a more cautious than expected approach to quantitative tightening (QT). This resulted in the greenback incurring heavy losses last Wednesday, which reversed sharply during Thursday’s session only until the dollar index fell during most of the European session on Friday. All of these earlier gains have brought the ICE dollar index gauge of the US currency close to 20-year highs and made technical analysts at BofA Global Research realize that it may be on the cusp of a further breakout.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: In the near term and according to the performance on the hourly chart, it appears that the USD/JPY currency pair is trading within the formation of an ascending channel. This indicates a significant short-term bullish momentum in the market sentiment. Therefore, the bulls will target short-term profits at around the 130.81 resistance or higher at the 131.14 resistance. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce or a potential pullback at around 130.19 support or lower at 129.87 support.

In the long term and according to the performance on the daily time frame, it appears that the USD/JPY is trading within the formation of a sharply bullish channel. This indicates a significant long-term bullish momentum in market sentiment. Therefore, the bulls will look to maintain long-term control of the currency pair by targeting profits at around the 132.26 resistance or higher at the 133.85 resistance. On the other hand, the bears will target profits at around 128.73 or lower at 126.96.

 

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Important Short-Term Resistance Being Approached /2022/04/26/important-short-term-resistance-being-approached/ /2022/04/26/important-short-term-resistance-being-approached/#respond Tue, 26 Apr 2022 09:52:55 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/04/26/important-short-term-resistance-being-approached/ [ad_1]

ETH/USD has staged a reversal higher in early trading this morning, but this has not swept away nervous sentiment which technically still remains vivid.

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As of this writing, ETH/USD is near the 3000.00 level, which is an important psychological mark for speculators of Ethereum.  The past few weeks of trading within ETH/USD have proven difficult for optimistic bullish speculators who believed Ethereum, along with its major counterparts, had dusted off its long term bearish trend and was ready to shine.

Yesterday’s trading in ETH/USD actually took the cryptocurrency to a depth of nearly 2800.00, which is a price that had not been seen since 18th of March. This date in the middle of March however was a period in which ETH/USD had started to spark higher after hitting a low of nearly 2440.00 on the 12th of March. The bullish rally which started in the middle of March began to reverse low in the first week of April.

Trading sentiment has become fragile in the broad cryptocurrency market and ETH/USD has certainly experienced some painful selloffs in recent days.  Speculators may be considering the notions of false rallies and false correlations as they try to gauge the near term and wagers. Yesterday’s fall to a one month low and sudden reversal higher may have ignited some buying, but the question is if it can endure and current resistance levels near the 3050.00 can actually be penetrated higher.

ETH/USD is within a very speculative trading range and rather intriguing correlations are beginning to take hold as to why Ethereum and the broad cryptocurrency market are struggling.  Technical traders may want to take a look at the NASDAQ 100 and compare it to the results of ETH/USD the past year; they look oddly similar in some respects. However, this doesn’t mean the results can be proven. Although, it does suggests ‘riskier’ assets are under pressure as some speculative investors search for more tranquil assets.

If ETH/USD can sustain a price above the 3000.00 level this may be a positive short term indicator, but if the cryptocurrency struggles and stays beneath this juncture it could mean more selling pressure will ensue. Nervous conditions continue to roil cryptocurrencies and ETH/USD has not escaped this cautious behavioral sentiment. Selling ETH/USD in the near term when it approaches technical resistance may prove to be a worthwhile short term wager.

Ethereum Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 3043.00

Current Support: 2962.00

High Target: 3116.00

Low Target: 2773.00

ETH/USD

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