There is a possibility that the pair will continue falling as bears target last week’s low at 1.0367.

Bearish View

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0370.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0477.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0467 and a take-profit at 1.0550.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0400.

The EUR/USD pair is struggling after a series of bad economic data from Europe and the ongoing demand for the US dollar. The euro is trading at 1.0425, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.0460.

Strong Dollar Demand

The EUR/USD pair has been struggling recently as investors reflect on the ongoing strength of the US dollar. The dollar index has jumped by double-digits this year as its demand remains at elevated levels.

This is happening as investors price in a recession due to the extremely hawkish Federal Reserve. The bank has already hiked interest rates by 150 basis points this year and hinted that the hikes will continue. Therefore, most analysts believe that a recession is imminent.

The EUR/USD pair has also dropped as worries about the state of the European economy continue. The economy is dealing with a number of challenges. For example, countries like Germany and Spain are dealing with high natural gas prices as Russia continues lowering its deliveries.

As a result, there are concerns about whether European companies will be able to compete with other firms from the US and Asia.

Data published recently have shed light on the current state of the European economy. On Friday, data revealed that the bloc’s consumer inflation surged to the highest level ever recorded. The same trend continued in the producer sector, where the PPI continued climbing.

Meanwhile, the German situation continued worsening. Data by the statistics agency showed that the country made its first monthly trade deficit in three decades. This happened as the volume of exports declined as imports jumped.

The next key data to watch on Tuesday will be the upcoming EU services and composite PMI numbers. The data is expected to show that the PMI remained above 50 even as companies suffered from higher costs of doing business.

EUR/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the pair formed a rising wedge in June this year. It then made a bearish breakout and is currently below the lower side of the wedge pattern. The pair has moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral point.

The pair also formed a small hammer pattern on Friday but the rebound faded at around 1.0475. Therefore, there is a possibility that the pair will continue falling as bears target last week’s low at 1.0367.

The USD/JPY has created a rather intriguing speculative landscape the past month via a rather incredible rocket launch higher.

As the month of July gets ready to begin for the USD/JPY, it is likely the USD/JPY will be trading near very long term highs.  As of this writing the USD/JPY is trading near the 136.650 ratio. Technical traders who want a perspective regarding this higher terrain need to look at charts that stretch back to 1998. Yes, the last time the USD/JPY traded within this vicinity was in October of 1998.

The month of June began with the USD/JPY trading what could be considered as a very high price range as it flirted with the 130.000 level. On the 9^th of May the USD/JPY reached a high of nearly 131.500 which was considered quite lofty. However, as it became clear the Bank of Japan would maintain its interest rate policy, which is extremely dovish with negative interest rates still ruling the central bank’s mantras; and the U.S Federal Reserve becoming quite hawkish as it battles inflation, financial institutions have simply continued to balance their holdings and buy the USD/JPY.

While many speculators and even some financial institutions may believe the Bank of Japan will give in at some point and start to counter the U.S Fed’s interest rate hikes, the BoJ has actually sat on its hands and done nothing. The U.S central bank continues to speak about the dangers of high inflation and the need to potentially maintain its rate hikes until inflation is curtailed. The Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell is on record saying the Fed may have to continue hiking its interest rates even if it risks recession in the States.

The USD/JPY has a history of being a solid trending Forex pair.  The USD/JPY also has a past which has seen volatility and spikes triggered with lightning speed. Traders need to be careful if they decide to pursue the upwards momentum which has turned into a startling bullish run for the USD/JPY. Because when the Japanese Yen starts to reverse and become stronger it could cause a swift trajectory in the opposite direction it has tracked since the first week of March 2022, when the USD/JPY was trading near 115.500.

However, technical traders who want to pursue buying positions may have history on their side for additional upwards movement to continue.  Way back in 1998 the USD/JPY traded near the 146.000 level in July of that year, actually to be fair the USD/JPY moved to the 147.000 juncture briefly around that time, but let’s not get overly greedy. The simple message is the USD/JPY has traded higher than its current value. There are no guarantees it will accomplish those values this time around. Yet, plenty of evidence suggests that financial institutions may be bracing for a higher USD/JPY. If the 138.000 mark is flirted with, it seems natural that some speculators will start to whisper about the potential of the 140.000 ratio as a natural psychological target.

USD/JPY Outlook for July 2022

Speculative price range for USD/JPY is 131.470 to 141.290

If and when the USD/JPY begins an earnest decline in value it could be fast. On the 14^th of June the USD/JPY was trading near the 135.600 ratio, and when the U.S Fed made its interest rate hike official the Forex pair promptly dropped to the 131.550 level for a brief moment on the 16^th of June, this was only about two weeks ago. Since then the USD/JPY has incrementally climbed, but the above is mentioned to provide evidence that selling movement can occur and be violent. If the 136.000 level falters and the USD/JPY is not able to climb back above this mark for a sustained amount of time, additional selling could easily spark a move toward 135.000 and the 134.000 ratios.

Speculators who want to remain buyers cannot be blamed. Traders will need a full arsenal of risk taking tactics to participate with the USD/JPY. Entry price orders are urged to make sure fills meet expectations. Stop loss and take profit orders are also highly encouraged. Speculators should not become overly ambitious and be willing to cash out winning wagers in the USD/JPY. If the 137.000 is approached and surpassed it could spark additional buying action. Traders targeting higher price levels need to monitor the USD/JPY carefully, if the Forex pair begins challenging higher values. The USD/JPY has put on an astonishing upwards show in June and its pace upwards may not be done yet.

I think that there would be plenty of buyers on short-term dips, and it would not surprise me at all to see this market reach the $120 level during the month.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been bullish for some time, but that does not necessarily mean that it has gone straight up in the air. The market has seen a couple of dips as of late, but when you zoom out, you can see that we are in a bit of an up-trending channel. The $100 level sits under current trading, and of course, is an area that will attract a lot of attention. I suspect that the $100 level will lead the way for the month of July.

If the market were to drop below the $100 level, it could lead to further selling. At that point, the market is likely to see an attempt to get down to the $90 level, an area that has been important in the past. If we were to break down below the $100 level, it’s likely that we would see further selling, due to perhaps some demand destruction. After all, there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the global market slowing down, as economies will more likely than not enter some type of recession. It’s also worth noting that recently we had seen demand numbers drop in the United States, but at the same time, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1986.

More likely than not, I think that there would be plenty of buyers on short-term dips, and it would not surprise me at all to see this market reach the $120 level during the month. Breaking above there is a very bullish sign, allowing the market to go to fresh, new highs, perhaps attacking the $130 level. Ultimately, that is my base case scenario, especially as some of the bigger producers in the Middle East claim that they are already producing at full tilt.

However, if we do see economies start to crash, oil will suffer as a result. After all, less demand for crude oil would be much lower. Also, you need to keep an eye on that $100 level, because as things stand right now, crude oil is the last of the commodities to continue holding on to a very bullish attitude. We have seen copper crash, natural gas lose 1/3 of its value, industrial metals get hammered, and of course lumber as well.

I do not trust rallies without the Federal Reserve changing its tune.

The S&P 500 continues to drift lower over the last several weeks as we start to look at the month of July. The month of July is likely going to continue the bearish trend, as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy. After all, they are anticipated to raise interest rates significantly, and that works against the value of stocks in general. The market looks as if it is going to go looking to reach the 200-week EMA, perhaps even the 3500 level after that.

That being said, bear markets are awfully difficult to short aggressively, because there is almost always a reason for buying. If for no other reason than the occasional short squeeze when it comes to an options expiration, forced buying, or even forced covering of short positions. Nonetheless, I do think that the month will be negative unless, of course, we can somehow break above the 4000 level. At that point, then we begin to try to turn things around. At this point, it’s not until we break above the 4200 level that I think the momentum has shifted to the upside, and at that point then things become bullish.

However, the Federal Reserve tied in the monetary policy in America is going to continue to weigh upon the markets, especially if they continue to be very aggressive. There will be the occasional “bear market rally”, which can be quite violent. However, every time we rally a few percent, there will probably be people willing to get out of the market that has been struggling for a while. In other words, there is going to be a persistent amount of downward pressure, at least until the fundamentals change.

Furthermore, companies are going to have to write down estimates, and comps are going to get much more difficult. At this point, I do think that there is an area between 3500 and 3400 that should be a significant amount of support, so if we were to break below there, that could open up a massive amount of selling. I don’t see that happening, but if it does things could get rather ugly. I anticipate that we will probably continue to drop for a while, and then try to find our footing by the end of the month. Whether or not it holds is still a completely open question. I do not trust rallies without the Federal Reserve changing its tune.

It is very likely that we will see more malaise in this market during the course of summer, so I believe that you will probably see a lot of a “sell the rallies” type of attitude.

The NASDAQ 100 continued to struggle yet again in the month of June, and it’s very likely that July will show a bit of the same. However, we are approaching an area that could offer a bit of support, especially near the 10,500 level. It is because of this that I believe that the NASDAQ 100 may stabilize a bit for the month of July, perhaps consolidating and trying to work off some of the excess selling pressure. The market has been eviscerated because the Federal Reserve has no other choice but to tighten rather aggressively.

When you look at this chart, you can see that the market is hanging near the 200-week EMA, is therefore there could be a bit of technical support here as well. This is a market that I think goes back-and-forth during the month of July, but probably has more of a tilt to the downside. After all, the monetary policy is not going to work in favor of the NASDAQ, and by extension, the NASDAQ 100.

However, there is only so far that the market can fall, and I believe that there will be a lot of support to be found near the 10,500 level, so if we were to break below there the next target would be the 10,000 handle, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we had seen resistance previously. As per usual, you will have to watch all of the major technology companies such as Meta, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.

If those major corporations continue to get sold off, there’s almost no chance that the NASDAQ 100 will be able to take off. However, if some of the bigger technology companies do start to pick up a bit of a bid, maybe just due to the fact that they have gotten “cheap”, that would be the bullish case for the NASDAQ 100. However, it is very likely that we will see more malaise in this market during the course of summer, so I believe that you will probably see a lot of a “sell the rallies” type of attitude. It is not until we break above the 13,500 level that I believe the market has turned around enough to believe, something that I just don’t see happening.

Bitcoin gets ready to close the curtain on another poor month of performance as it sunk to lower depths again, and continues to test the willpower of its backers.

BTC/USD traded lower in June. Every speculator of cryptocurrencies knows the first sentence, it is not news. Bitcoin touched values on the 18^th June which were near 17,620.00 momentarily. Unfortunately for its parade of backers, BTC/USD has suffered a long term bearish trend which has proven the opposite of momentary. Some people may not want to be reminded, but on the 9^th and 10^th of November 2021 Bitcoin was trading near the 69,900.00 juncture. Dreams of trading above 70,000.00 and eventually to 100,000.00 at that time seemed realistic to many.

Trading this June started out on a high note, on the 1^st and 2^nd of June BTC/USD had the 32,000.00 mark within sight. On the 1^st of May 2021 BTC/USD began its month above the 40,000.00 level. June has been unkind to Bitcoin and the broad cryptocurrency market, buyers of BTC/USD who have a speculative desire have likely had their stamina tested. However, many short term traders who pursued buying positions of Bitcoin were likely wiped out. And the marketplace awaits the return of a crowd of buyers. The question is if and when they will appear.

Bitcoin has certainly led the pack as the most famous of the digital assets. However, the constant dark shadow engulfing Bitcoin trading has continued to run into rather negative signals, and when BTC/USD feel below the 27,000.00 juncture on the 12^th and 13^th of June, selling velocity increased dramatically. The lower trend remains troubling in BTC/USD and the inability to climb and stay above the 21,200.00 ratio recently may be a cause for additional worry.

Support levels which have been challenged remain in sight and some traders may feel the ‘barriers’ are vulnerable. If BTC/USD is not able to climb and stay above the 21,200.00 ratio in the near term as June concludes and July begins, Bitcoin may see tests to lower depths ignite again.

BTC/USD Outlook for July

Speculative price range for BTC/USD is 12,559.00 to 28,007.00.

A move below the 20,500.00 level in BTC/USD could promptly cause skeptics who are pursuing selling positions of Bitcoin to feel adventurous and seek lower depths. Certainly another fall below the 20,000.00 juncture would be worrisome for the broad cryptocurrency market, and if BTC/USD is not able to safely climb above this juncture it could set off alarm bells. Support around the 19,700.00 level appears important.

Yes, BTC/USD did trade below the 19,700.00 level in June, but it did this for only a couple of days.  However, if this juncture is penetrated lower and sees selling pressure mount it could set off another wave of long term lows. Clearly if the 18,000.00 value is proven weak and trading falls below, this would set off more nervous sentiment.

The problem for Bitcoin is that in the midst of its massive selloffs there is little in the way of a natural equilibrium, this because intrinsic value is only a theory with Bitcoin – it cannot be quantified. If BTC/USD falls below the 17,600.00 level and its price action is sustained lower, Bitcoin could easily see values it has not touched since October of 2020 when it traded near 13,000.00.

Speculators of BTC/USD who want to pursue short term upside certainly exist, and BTC/USD could suddenly trade higher. However, in the midst of this strong bearish trend lower, looking for realistic targets with quick hitting gains via upside movement in Bitcoin remains the logical tactical choice for those who want to be buyers when they perceive support levels as being strong.

If BTC/USD could climb above 22,200.00 and maintain this value and fight for the 23,000.00 and achieve it with a sustained run this would be a positive sign for buyers. However, BTC/USD will need to continuously puncture resistance levels higher with a solid amount of price velocity for many speculators to change their minds about the negative trend which has been evident for months.

XRP/USD is trading slightly above the 35 cents value, as the digital asset has incrementally stumbled and continues to test important lower support with suspicious movement.

On the 14^th and 16^th of June XRP/USD stumbled to within sight of 29 cents.  As of this writing Ripple is trading slightly above the 35 cents level, which can be argued is a solid gain. However, the month of June began with XRP/USD trading above the 41 cents mark. On the 10^th of June XRP/USD was still trading near 40 cents. Considering the volatility seen in the broad cryptocurrency market, the ability of XRP/USD to be trading near 35 cents as June gets ready to conclude may be a small victory.

However, traders within XRP/USD who are pursuing speculative positions may remain skeptical about Ripple’s value as July gets ready to start.  The ability of XRP/USD to stay above 30 cents is likely an important psychological reference point for the value of Ripple, if this juncture were to give into a serious selling storm it could open the door for a considerable amount price velocity to have an effect downwards.  

XRP/USD can be viewed as having traded in a consolidated manner during the month of June, but in a percentage ratio, given the fact that Ripple trades in cents – large changes of value do take place.  Speculators need to be cautious with XRP/USD because of the fractional trading that occurs within its digital landscape. Depending on the amount of leverage being used a one cent move in XRP/USD can become a costly endeavor. Traders are advised to use cautious leverage and entry price orders, so they are able to start a wager with XRP/USD that meets their expectations when a trade is ignited and the value changes do not rip apart their trading accounts.

XRP/USD does mirror it major cryptocurrency counterparts, nervousness in the broad market has a definite effect on the price of Ripple. On the 23^rd of June XRP/USD was trading near 0.32200, and on the 24^th of June the price of Ripple climbed to a short term apex of nearly 0.38550. The change of value in one day with a gain of more than 6 cents was significant. However, since reaching this short term high XRP/USD has incrementally stumbled again and is now testing important support.

Ripple Outlook for July

Speculative price range for XRP/USD is 0.23700 to 0.44000.

If downside price momentum continues to build in XRP in the near term there is reason to suspect the 33 to 34 cents range can prove important. If the 33 cents juncture were to falter this could set off another storm of selling and targeted anticipation that the 32 and 31 cents marks will start to be flirted upon. Should XRP/USD react to a new storm of selling in the broad cryptocurrency market, there is reason to suspect the 29 cents level could be tested again.

Although the 29 cents level held during June, if another wave of selling grows within the broad crypto market, this level may prove vulnerable. From a technical long term chart perspective if the January 2021 prices of 27 cents came into focus this could set off a firestorm of pressure in XRP/USD. Any sustained move below 27 cents could trigger further selling and a potential move to marks seen in October and November of 2020, when XRP/USD traded near 24 cents. Traders should keep their ambitions realistic when pursuing their positions and be willing to cash out profitable wagers if they are produced.

Traders looking for upside price action in XRP/USD should look for fast trades until the bearish trend can be declared dead, and that will take some doing. XRP/USD is within lower depths, so looking for short term reversals higher which target 36 cents is reasonable, but stop loss orders should be used at all times in case the market continues to track lower. If the 36 cents level is punctured higher, traders could aim for 37 and 38 cents. Looking for higher price levels can be done, but it should be remembered that the highs for XRP/USD were only around the 41 cents range in June and this occurred in the first week of the month.

ETH/USD has recovered from its June 18^th lows when it traded near 885.00, but if the bearish trend remains intact July could produce new significant depths.

Speculators who are holding ETH/USD may not want to read this article because it will not be the most optimistic perception of Ethereum they will see.  As the month of June comes to a close ETH/USD has in fact risen from the lows it saw on the 18^th of June, which explored depths near the 885.00 ratio briefly. The price of ETH/USD is a relatively comfortable 1215.00 as of this writing. If you were able to buy ETH/USD at the lowest values in June and have profited congratulations. But perhaps this is where you might want to stop reading if you plan on holding ETH/USD into July.

This is an opinion piece clearly, what is written doesn’t mean ETH/USD will do as I say, in fact it may do the exact opposite.  However, the long term bearish trend that ETH/USD has suffered from is still in full effect. Unless much higher levels of resistance are toppled and the value of ETH/USD soars to a height it hasn’t seen April of 2021 when Ethereum was trading near 3500.00, there will still be some holders of ETH/USD likely underwater taking into consideration their long term trading results.

The notion that ETH/USD is trading about 300.00 USD higher as of this writing compared to the lows seen in June are solid results, but it doesn’t brush aside the chaos and loss of money which took place in the past few weeks. When the month of June started ETH/USD was essentially trading near the 2000.00 level, and since falling through the 1700.00 ratio on the 10^th of June, ETH/USD has fallen violently and doesn’t appear ready to stand up.

While the ability to trade above 1200.00 is welcome, unless ETH/USD can sustain this level and incrementally post new highs without significant reversals lower it remains under skeptical technical perceptions. If technical traders look at long term charts, there is no denying that Ethereum is currently trading within a dangerous price band that is testing values from January of 2021 and December 2020.

If the current price of ETH/USD falls below the 1200.00 in the near term this will not be a positive sign, particularly if it cannot climb back above the 1200.00 in a healthy manner and sustain value.  Small moves upwards are suspicious and may prove to be ‘sucker bets’ in which people are tempted to buy into incremental higher ratios, only to watch values sudden stumble lower and wipe out their wagers on ETH/USD.  As the month of July gets ready to start, there has been little evidence to suggest a new buying parade is going to erupt and launch ETH/USD to solid heights.

ETH/USD Outlook for July

Speculative price range for ETH/USD is 463.00 to 1800.00.

If ETH/USD breaks below the 1150.00 mark and suddenly finds itself testing the 1100.00 to 1000.00 range again, this will cause nervousness in the marketplace.  A fall below 1000.00 would certainly set off alarm bells within the nervous broad cryptocurrency market which still exist. If the 1000.00 mark is proven vulnerable and a retest of June 18^th lows begin to take place, there is dangerous support in this area.

If the 966.00 mark is tested and prices are sustained in this vicinity ETH/USD could quickly find a challenge of the 880.00 level again. If this juncture were to look weak and Ethereum continues to see a selloff, then December 2020 support could evaporate and a price of around 660.00 could be tested. This is not written to scare or entice speculators; it is simply an interpretation of technical charts and taking into consideration current market sentiment via my perceptions.

For optimistic bullish traders who have made it through this less than flattering look at the current state of ETH/USD trading, yes, you can still buy Ethereum.   Traders who want to be buyers should look for quick hitting trades that cash out profits when anticipated resistance levels have hit their profitable targets. Leverage should be used extremely cautiously; ETH/USD is likely to remain volatile.

If price velocity suddenly emerges, it may be to the downside, stop loss orders should be used to protect money. If ETH/USD breaks above the 1275.00 mark, perhaps the 1300.00 area can be speculated on. It should be noted that a strong dose of resistance looks to be quite stiff around the 1700.00 level. Can this actually take place in July? Before that higher value is attained, ETH/USD would have to prove it has a significant amount of buyers willing to speculate on upwards momentum and hold onto their positions. Until that happens doubter will remain abundant.

Fed fund futures are starting to suggest that we may even see a 75 basis point rate hike in July, so this will still favor the greenback.

The euro continues to look very lackluster as the month of June continues to see sellers jump in every time the market tries to break above the 1.06 level. Beyond that, the 1.08 level also offers resistance, so to think that the month of July is going to be easy for the common currency is probably a bit of a stretch. In fact, it’s not until we break above the 1.08 level that the buyers have any real strength, and even then, I think that there are plenty of opportunities for short-sellers to jump into this market.

When you look at the central bank divergence, meaning that the Federal Reserve is looking to tighten monetary policy rather aggressively, while the European Central Bank is probably going to be a bit more casual about it. The pair should continue to draw from here, perhaps reaching down to the 1.04 level again, and then the 1.02 level. Sometime this summer, I would not be surprised at all to see the euro reach the parity level against the United States dollar, but I don’t know if it happens in the month of July. Typically, July tends to be a rather quiet month, so I think it is more likely than not that we will be in more of a consolidation type of situation.

The Federal Reserve is anticipating raising interest rates at least 50 basis points this month, and then again at the next meeting. In contrast, the ECB is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, followed by another 25 basis points. The situation in the European Union is much different than the United States, as there is a major energy problem in the EU, as it now find itselfs scrambling to provide power to its citizens. Because of this, the tightening cycle of the EU is more likely than not going to be very short.

It has become apparent that in the United States the number one problem is inflation, so the tightening cycle will not only continue, but it may become rather aggressive. In fact, Fed fund futures are starting to suggest that we may even see a 75 basis point rate hike in July, so this will still favor the greenback. As a general rule, the greenback is bought in times of uncertainty, which is where we find ourselves now.

Eventually, I do think gold will become a very bullish market, but this month coming up is likely to be very noisy to say the least.

Gold markets at the end of June are sitting at a very interesting level, as it looks like we are trying to test a major uptrend line. The month of July will be about whether or not we can stay above the $1800 level. $1800 level is going to be a complex area of support, and as a result, I think a lot of traders are paying close attention to it. If we were to break down below the $1800 level, it’s likely that the market could start to accelerate to the downside.

It’s worth noting that the market has seen a lot of consolidation between the $1800 level and the $1880 level above. The market has been very noisy over the last couple of months. I think gold will continue to be very noisy during the month, especially as the interest rate markets in America continue to show yields rising. As long as that’s going to be the case, it’s likely that the gold markets are going to be very difficult.

You need to keep an eye on the 10-year yield, because the higher it goes, the lower gold will go, and of course vice versa. If we break above the 50 Week EMA, then we will more likely than not go looking to the $1880 level. Breaking above that would be a major turnaround, perhaps kicking off a move to the $1920 level, perhaps even the $2000 level after that. I think volatility is probably the one thing you can probably count on during the month, so it’s likely that you need to look at this market through the prism of a short-term market that wants to go back and forth before it makes a bigger move.

If and when we break below that $1800 level, then it’s likely that we could drop all the way down to the $1700 level. A lot of this is going to come down to chatter coming out of central banks around the world, as the interest rate situation continues to be a major driver. That being said, you will have to spend most of the month paying attention to Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, and many other central bankers. Eventually, I do think gold will become a very bullish market, but this month coming up is likely to be very noisy to say the least.