The USD/BRL fell to fresh lows on Monday and then demonstrated rather consolidated price action as important support levels came into sight.

When the USD/BRL opens today it could potentially be hit with a sudden burst of activity and traders need to be cautious early in the day. Yesterday’s results saw the USD/BRL currency pair close near the 5.1250 mark and this outcome kept price action within sight of important support levels not sincerely seen since the middle of June.

While the results from Monday are intriguing, today’s outcome could produce equally fascinating speculative opportunities for USD/BRL traders. The USD/BRL has produced a solid amount of bearish price action since the first week of August. A high of nearly 5.3160 was seen on the 3^rd of August. Traders should note that reversals upward have occurred too, this has not been a one way direction.

On the 21^st of July the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.3100 ratio. The bearish price action in the Forex pair has been clear since then, but again pursuit of selling positions has not be a clear path to victory for traders, risk management has been essential to produce solid trading results. Yesterday’s trading which saw the USD/BRL trade lower than its outcome demonstrated on Friday, which saw volatile conditions via a sudden burst higher to nearly 5.2800 and then a strong drop to nearly 5.1500 is noteworthy.

Current Support Ratios Need to be Monitored Closely as Values from June are Tested

The U.S will release key inflation data today and if the Consumer Price Index numbers are stronger than expected this could spur on short term buying of the USD/BRL. Today’s outcome from the U.S CPI numbers will produce sudden fireworks across Forex and the USD/BRL is certain to be effected by the results as financial houses react to the news.

• Support near the 5.1025 level could prove important; if this number proves vulnerable the USD/BRL could see more selling and the 5.0800 ratio become a target.
• If U.S CPI numbers are stronger than expected, the USD/BRL could produce a burst higher and resistance near the 5.1600 to 5.1800 levels should be watched diligently.

Cautious USD/BRL Trading Techniques could be Worthwhile before U.S data is released

The USD/BRL is trading near crucial support levels, but the publication of the U.S economic data will certainly create fast conditions for the USD/BRL based on the outcome.  The USD/BRL has certainly enjoyed a rather solid bearish cycle since the 21^st of July, and today’s inflation data from the U.S may be a key for the currency pair over the near term.

If data meets expectations the USD/BRL may maintain its bearish mode and see support below tested. Traders need to be careful today and cautious traders may want to see the outcome of the U.S inflation data and let the USD/BRL calm down before attempting to pursue positions.

Brazilian Real Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance:  5.1520

Current Support:  5.1049

High Target: 5.2030

Low Target:  5.07800

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I think we will stay within this $20 range for the entirety of the month, but with a slight upward tilt.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been very choppy over the last couple of months, and it is very likely that we will continue to see a lot of indecision overall. The month of June probably won’t be any better, and I believe we are looking at a situation where although a bit confused, it’s probably worth noting that we have been slowly drifting higher.

Most analysts believe that the market is likely to go higher given enough time. The $100 level underneath will be a major “floor in the market”, so as long as we can stay above there, I think it’s more likely than not going to be a market in which there will be plenty of interest. That being said, I don’t necessarily think that we will break out, but if we did go below there, it would be extraordinarily negative and could change the entire attitude of the market.

The $110 level seems to be a bit of a “fair value level” for the market, and with that, I believe we are probably going to see it act as a bit of a magnet for pariahs, just as we have for the majority of May. If we can break higher, then the $115 level is a resistance barrier that I think a lot of people would be paying attention to, which we have pulled back from a couple of times in the past. After that, then we have the $120 level which has been significant resistance. The crude oil markets have been noisy, to say the least, so I would not be surprised to see all three of these levels tested at one point or another during the month. However, it is worth noting that we have been drifting ever so slightly higher in general.

Keep in mind that there are concerns about demand out there, but at the same time the supply situation is pretty miserable. Because of this, the markets will probably be extraordinarily volatile due to inventory numbers coming out of various announcements, and of course, the inflationary numbers that could have people thinking less demand is possible. In other words, this remains very choppy and volatile, and I think we will stay within this $20 range for the entirety of the month, but with a slight upward tilt.

It’s very likely that the month of June is going to be more of a “fade the rally” type of situation, at least until the Federal Reserve changes its attitude.

The S&P 500 futures market has been rather negative for the entire month of May, and June does not figure to be much better. We will more likely than not continue to see sellers every time we try to rally, as Wall Street continues its temper tantrum due to a lack of free and easy money. As the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, this will continue to put negative pressure on risk assets, with the S&P 500 being particularly vulnerable.

Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the US economy, not the least of which will be the US consumer pulling away from spending. After all, 70% of the US economy is based on consumption, and we are focusing on a major shift in attitudes. Most consumer confidence-related economic figures continue to slump, meaning that spending is most certainly going to slow down. If this is going to be the case, then profits will have to be readjusted for future earnings. The one consistent message that you hear from CEOs around the United States is that future earnings are murky at the very least, and a lot of them are starting to suggest that the supply chain is in worse shape than we had thought. In that scenario, it’s difficult to make a profit.

Now that the market has broken solidly below the 4000 level, that should offer significant resistance to any attempt to recover. If we break above the 4000 level, that would obviously be a bit of a victory, but not necessarily the be-all and end-all of a turnaround. On the downside, the 3500 level underneath could be a target, but I would anticipate that would probably cause some type of meltdown. Regardless, it’s very likely that the month of June is going to be more of a “fade the rally” type of situation, at least until the Federal Reserve changes its attitude.

Right now, as long as inflation remains hot, it’s difficult to imagine that the Federal Reserve will be able to do anything other than tightening monetary policy. The market will continue to throw a tantrum, especially if interest rates continue to rise as the “risk-free rate of return” will continue to be a higher hurdle to overcome for equities. It’s not that we won’t get the occasional rally, but I would look at each rally as being suspicious.

Any balance during the month of July has to be looked at as a potential selling opportunity.

The NASDAQ 100 has been like a virtual punching bag for the short-sellers during the month of May. While the market is certainly oversold, the reality is that there’s no reason to think that the NASDAQ 100 is suddenly going to take out to the upside. After all, there’s a lot of risk appetite that’s needed for this market to rally, so I still look at any time we bounce as a potential shorting opportunity. The 12,000 level has been broken below, and now it looks like we are trying to reach the 11,000 level underneath.

If we do turn around and rally, I believe that there is a significant amount of resistance to be found near the 13,000 level, and possibly just about there. In fact, it’s not until we break above the 13,000 level that I would start to think about the upside. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to continue to get beaten up by the idea of higher interest rates, as technology stocks do tend to suffer. The NASDAQ 100 is very volatile, and at this point in time, I think the volatility lends itself to be more negative than anything else. After all, the world is worried about growth and risk appetite in general.

Any balance during the month of July has to be looked at as a potential selling opportunity, so I would probably focus more on short-term charts than anything else, because the volatility will continue to make any rally suspicious, and I think that a lot of the buyers will be very cautious about trying to hang on to bigger moves. In fact, if you are a “long-only fund” at this point, you are probably more than happy to take small profits instead of risking yet another meltdown.

If the Federal Reserve changes its attitude, that changes the entire outlook for the market, but right now it seems as if it’s hell-bent on trying to get down to the 11,000 level, perhaps even down to the 10,000 level during the month of June. It should also be noted that the middle of the summer tends to be a bit less than bullish, so ultimately it’s a market that I just have no interest in trying to buy until we get a weekly close above the 13,000 level.

BTC/USD as of this writing is under the 29,000.00 mark early this weekend.  BTC/USD saw a low of nearly 25,500.00 on the 9^th of May. The move lower in Bitcoin is not surprising, considering the strong bearish trend which has been demonstrated time and again since November of 2021. The start of April saw a new onslaught emerge lower, after a brief run higher was exhibited starting in the middle of March which ran out of speculative fuel, and the downside has generated more power in May.

While a correlation between the cryptocurrency markets has been significant when technical charts are compared to U.S equities, a rather more dangerous sentiment may be mounting in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The speculative zeal which has been a driving force in Bitcoin seems to be evaporating. Yes, we have seen this show before. Over exuberance has led to all-time highs followed by breathtaking falls. Long term traders and holders of BTC/USD may feel calm as the cryptocurrency flirts with lows not seen since late December 2020, but short term speculators who keep trying to catch the next wave up may be having difficulty.

BTC/USD inability to stay above the 30,000.00 is troubling. The past couple of days Bitcoin have begun to penetrate the 29,000.00 ratio lower again. Behavioral sentiment remains ultra-fragile. Yes, a sudden storm of buying could easily brush aside technical resistance and new highs can be generated, but this ambition doesn’t seem as realistic compared to the potential Bitcoin actually may continue to move lower.

If BTC/USD were to break below the 28,000.00 level, and not be able to climb above this mark for a couple of days this could trigger additional selling. Technical long term charts can be glanced out to try and decipher what will happen next and what barriers if broken will spur on more selling. The problem that BTC/USD faces is the potential that speculative buyers will remain in short supply and not react to technical charts. Some traders may believe for the time being that profits are going to be made pursuing selling positions.

BTC/USD Outlook for June

Speculative price range for BTC/USD is 18,881.00 to 39,990.00.

As the month of June gets ready to start, speculators will need to be braced for more volatile days ahead with BTC/USD.  Some traders may have thought April had produced the worst that could be seen regarding downside momentum, but May has proven to be worse. The long term bearish trend in BTC/USD remains clear and betting against it could prove dangerous and costly.

Traders who are intent on shorting BTC/USD and believe that further price erosion is going to be seen in the weeks ahead cannot be blamed. If BTC/USD breaks below the 28,600.00 mark and sees more vulnerable support levels brushed aside, speculators may have their sights on the 28,200.00 mark. Remember in the second week of May, price velocity lower did take Bitcoin down to the 25,500.00 threshold quickly. The fact that BTC/USD has not achieved a significant reversal higher and remains in a dangerous price range which highlights weakness is important.

If BTC/USD falls below the 28,000.00 mark and sees violent trading, new lows could develop quickly. Traders need to be ready for significant volatility if BTC/USD were to break below the 26,000.00 mark.

Speculators who insist on chasing upside via buying positions should use take profit orders to cash in reversals higher that they seek. The 29,000.00 mark could easily be targeted if trading persists below this level as a buy. However, traders are encouraged to monitor the price of BTC/USD and not look for resistance levels to crumble. Yes, BTC/USD could move to 30,000.00 and go higher. The 32,000.00 mark is achievable. Traders should remember that the last time the 35,000.00 mark was seen was in briefly in early May. Short term bullish speculators need to remain realistic regarding their goals in the coming weeks.

Ripple is trading below the 40 cents juncture, and has shown little inclination to spring a strong reversal higher as the month of June approaches.

XRP/USD is trading near the 39 cents level as May gets ready to head into the sunset.  A low below 33 cents was seen in XRP/USD on the 9^th of May. While Ripple may have been able to pick itself up from the lower depths of that value, XRP/USD remains fragile and its ‘high’ of nearly 46 and half cents which was seen on the 13^th of May quickly disappeared. XRP/USD has incrementally sunk lower since this value was seen late in the second week of May.

As June prepares to launch, the broad cryptocurrency market remains in a fragile state. XRP/USD along with its major counterparts is struggling near important support levels. Very few bullish speculators seem to be prepared to step into the mix and become strong buyers at this time. XRP/USD is struggling near important support and has shown a real inability to create sustained reversals higher.

The 40 cents juncture may prove to be an interesting psychological juncture for XRP/USD.  If Ripple continues to struggle beneath this value and is not able to climb above it and maintain a semblance of positive traction, the long term bearish trend which has been in effect since late March will likely remain difficult to stop. Yes, Ripple does serve as a utilitarian digital asset in the banking sphere, but a lot of its value is based on speculative confidence.  If XRP/USD remains locked in its downward trajectory technical traders may have to consider a couple of rather negative signals.

While the results of trading in XRP/USD have certainly plummeted along with its major crypto counterparts, Ripple remains within a value range that is still within its early exuberant buying spree of February and early March of 2021. Technically it can be perceived that if bearish momentum continues and XRP/USD breaks through the 34 cents mark below, that things for Ripple could get worse before they get better.

Ripple Outlook for June

Speculative price range for XRP/USD is 0.23000 to 0.51000.

If downside momentum in XRP/USD remains steady and the 38 cents level falters and the 37 cents mark is proven to be vulnerable, bearish momentum could intensify. Yes, the broad crypto market remains extremely weak from a sentiment perspective and XRP/USD certainly feeds off of this nervous energy. A test in the second week of May saw Ripple fall below 34 cents and if this were to happen again, barriers below could quickly disappear.

If XRP/USD continues to consolidate below the 40 cents juncture and doesn’t jump above it this could be a poor indicator. If the 37 cents were to prove weak and trading suddenly could not penetrate 38 cents, traders may be inclined to continue pursuing downside momentum. Price velocity in XRP/USD is usually not as strong as its major counterparts, nevertheless traders need to use take profit and stop loss orders to engage properly. Leverage should be used conservatively.

For the few and brave among the cryptocurrency traders who decide to look for upside price action, XRP/USD has a target of 40 cents which stands right before them. If the 40 cents mark can be toppled and sustained, traders cannot be blamed for looking for 41 and 42 cents. However, before speculators become too optimistic they should note the 44 and 45 cents junctures do seem to be significant resistance levels. Certainly they could be punctured higher, but for the moment the nervous sentiment within the broad cryptocurrency market makes these higher values feel like they are miles away.

ADA/USD has fallen to critical support levels as the month of June is set to begin, and nervous sentiment remains a fixture in the crypto markets.

Cardano is trading below the 46 cents level as of this weekend’s writing.  ADA/USD remains locked in a downwards trajectory and have produced insignificant reversals higher in the past week, as it mirrors the poor trading conditions in the broad cryptocurrency markets. Bullish speculators wagering on upside based on the belief that ADA/USD is vastly oversold are likely having their fortitude tested in rather distasteful ways.

The support levels ADA/USD are traversing appear fragile and if the 45 cents juncture is broken lower this could set off an additional round of selling in Cardano.  On the 12^th of May, ADA/USD saw a volatile amount of selling take Cardano below the 40 cents threshold. A reversal higher was produced and a climb to the 60 cents marks were attained on the 13^th and 16^th of May. However, incremental decreases in the value of ADA/USD have been strong, and its current price level is too close for comfort to the lows attained on the 12^th of May.

Consolidation has been seen in the broad cryptocurrency markets the past couple of days, but nervous sentiment remains the key ingredient. The lack of a serious reversal higher and the notion that the long term bearish trend certainly remains on display, is likely causing traders to suspect additional selling pressure will be demonstrated. Speculative buyers seem to be in short supply and a rush of heroes who will suddenly propel ADA/USD to solid higher levels seems to be only wishful thinking.

Certainly ADA/USD is going to see reversals higher, but the question is how strong buying can possibly be under the present trading conditions.  Early February 2021 prices are now being challenged and if technical bearish speculators prove they are strong, a break below the 45 and 44 cents junctures could spark the notion that lower depths could be found.

On the 3^rd of September, 2021 ADA/USD was trading just below the 3.00000000 mark. The fall in value of Cardano since these apex highs is abundantly clear, and has likely hurt many speculators who have chosen to hold onto their positions long term. Day traders however have the opportunity to seek and take advantage of the negative bearish trend in ADA/USD. While some backers of Cardano may be right that the long term looks bright, this coming month of June is not exactly suggesting that bright skies are ahead for climbs upward that can be sustained.

Cardano Outlook for June

Speculative price range for ADA/USD is 0.33300000 to 0.66000000

ADA/USD remains locked into a negative bearish trend. Current price levels may appear cheap because of the value Cardano once exhibited, but for the moment sellers seem to outnumber buyers. If ADA/USD remains locked under the 50 cents ratio and the broad cryptocurrency market remains fragile, support levels may continue to be tested. As of this writing with the 45 cents juncture acting as support, speculators cannot be blamed for pursuing lower realms. If the 44 cents mark suddenly appears to be weak, price action could certainly take Cardano to prices seen the second week of May.

Ambitions even on the short selling side of the trading sphere should be kept realistic. Traders are urged to use risk management wisely at all times. The violent selloffs demonstrated the past couple of months may continue into June if behavioral sentiment remains weak and speculative buying cannot muster power, but there are no guarantees. If the 42 cents mark is broken in ADA/USD and prices are sustained near the 41 to 40 cents marks, this would not be a good sign for Cardano bullish positions.

Traders who choose to search for reversals higher based on the belief higher price action will be generated should keep their goals realistic. ADA/USD has had a difficult time climbing above the 50 cents mark the past few days, if this mark cannot be punctured higher it will be a negative sign. However if 50 cents is attained, traders should be willing to use take profit orders to cash in profits that emerge. The last time Cardano was above 60 cents was on the 15^th of May. ADA/USD can certainly move higher, but for the moment its bearish trend remains in control of its market sentiment.

ETH/USD has fallen to new lows for the month of May, and as June is set to embark in a few days trading conditions are anxious and intriguing.

ETH/USD is trading below the 1800.00 level as of this writing and the broad cryptocurrency market remains fragile.  Many other cryptocurrencies use Ethereum as a barometer of speculative conditions. ETH/USD is traversing it lowest values displayed in May, and as June waits to unleash its trading support levels continue to look vulnerable.  Ethereum’s major counterparts are also being challenged by long term low prices as bullish speculators seemingly have lost their appetite for risk.

The crux of the matter for ETH/USD is that its value is testing vital support barriers that are both short and long term technically.  Lows are testing prices from the middle of this May, but are also challenging values seen in July, June and May of 2021. If these crucial barriers are broken lower and ETH/USD penetrates the 1700.00 mark and shows an inability to climb above this juncture quickly, it could set off loud alarm bells among key investors and traders of Ethereum.

While the 2000.00 juncture giving way earlier this week and not being able to be re-conquered with a reversal upwards that could be maintained is noticeable, the fact that ETH/USD is now swimming near crucial support from last year is ultra-concerning.  Technically ETH/USD has yet to have a capitulation trade like its major counterpart Bitcoin.

This is perspective perhaps, but it is based on the notion BTC/USD is trading near prices seen in January of 2021 and December of 2020. Ethereum has not yet hit those lows, meaning if ETH/USD were to drop to January 2021 and December 2020 values it would be trading near the 1,200.00 to 1,000.00 ratios technically.

The current price action of ETH/USD is not building a strong amount of confidence and its magnetic price action near current support levels suggests that if the next important levels demonstrate weakness, that price velocity downwards could be problematic. April was a bad month for ETH/USD, but May proved to be equally distasteful regarding downward movement if a speculator was trying to find sustained bullish momentum. The long term bearish trend of Ethereum is still showing teeth, and until sustained higher resistance levels are made to look vulnerable, shorting ETH/USD is likely going to attract sellers who are brave enough to swim its whirlwind waters.

ETH/USD Outlook for June

Speculative price range for ETH/USD is 986.00 to 2827.00.

Traders need to be extremely careful as ETH/USD traverses its current territory.  The use of conservative leverage, stop loss and take profit orders cannot be emphasized enough. If ETH/USD were to break below the 1700.00 mark and sustain prices below, this would be an additionally bad signal. The current price of ETH/USD is a poor indicator too. However, if the 1700.00 ratio is proven weak and the 1650.00 mark suddenly is targeted, price velocity could become rather wicked for all speculators.

Yes, reversals higher will certainly be seen, but for perspective – day traders need to question how long they are willing to hold onto a long position under the current trading conditions. Upside movements have been hit with strong reversals lower on a steady basis and this may continue during the month of June. Nervous market sentiment continues to be abundant and traders who believe ETH/USD is vastly undersold need to understand while they may be proven correct long term, that they may not have enough money in their accounts to withstand any additional downward spikes which may be seen in the coming weeks.

ETH/USD has shown extremely intriguing consolidation the past few days as it traverses within the lower elements of its price range.   Short term traders cannot be blamed for pursuing additional downside momentum; however they need to be extremely careful. Yes, cryptocurrencies have a known history of violent price action, but the coming weeks may be more turbulent than normal if important support levels in ETH/USD are flirted with below.

The USD/INR continues to mount an attack on apex highs, as the bullish trend in the Forex pair remains firmly within its upper price range.

The USD/INR has kept its upward momentum intact the past month of trading.  After achieving all-time vales in April, some traders may have believed the Forex pair had been overbought and that the USD would give back some of its value against the Indian Rupee; this did not happen.

Instead the past few weeks have seen new highs attained by the USD/INR. Yes, the pair has reversed slightly from its highs of about 77.9000 which were hit on the 16^th and 20^th of May, but the current value as of this writing near 77.6060 is still a relatively short distance from these upper tier ratios.

Speculators who dare to enter the USD/INR with positions need to understand that a complex puzzle needs to be solved. The U.S Federal Reserve will conduct another interest rate meeting on the 14^th and 15^th of June, and it is nearly certain another hike of 0.50% will be added to the current borrowing rate. While this number has likely been traded into the USD/INR already by financial institutions, what is unknown is what the U.S central bank will say their outlook for more rate hikes will be this coming summer in July and August.

Technical traders may not want to take any of the above into consideration regarding the Federal Reserve, but it may be wise to at least know when to expect the volatility that the decision making and pronouncements will inflict on the USD/INR.  While moving around near all-time highs the USD/INR may appear overbought and long term this may prove to be the case. However, day traders who want to hold onto a position for merely a day or two – or even only a few hours, do not have the luxury or the need to consider what the price of the USD/INR will be this time next year.

Momentum has been upwards and the prevailing question for speculators looking for short term wagers is when a reversal lower will develop, or if the upwards climb is simply going to continue?  While it may have been tempting to say the 77.0000 level would prove to be a stop gap area for the USD/INR in May and that a reversal lower would occur, this has not proven to be correct. The 78.0000 juncture is clearly within shouting distance and taking into consideration the volatility that is bound to occur in the second week of June, due to the U.S Federal Reserve lurking in the shadows, traders need to plan for more volatility.

USD/INR Outlook for June 2022

Speculative price range for USD/INR is 76.7300 to 78.3500

Short term speculators should expect the current price range of the USD/INR to continue to produce fireworks. However the fireworks may only be demonstrated with sudden bursts of energy after further consolidation has taken place. The past week of trading has produced a rather tight range and this may prevail as institutional traders become more cautious in the coming week. If the USD/INR stumbles lower to the 77.4500 realm in the near term, it might prove to be a solid opportunity to look for some upside with buying wagers. Speculators should expect choppy conditions to linger the next two weeks.

The USD/INR is likely to traverse its current range, but if a stronger buying surge seeps into the Forex market for the USD, the forex pair could suddenly start to challenge the 78.0000 realm in June. While the USD/INR at a price of 78.1000 may seem too high, the Forex market doesn’t care about an individual’s ‘feelings’.  A higher move around these ratios could be the result of speculative bets by large institutions, which think the U.S central bank is going to remain stubborn and say they want to raise interest rates not only in June, but in the summer also.

Most of the trading you will be doing during the month of June will probably be half of the shorter time frames.

Gold markets bounced ever so slightly toward the end of the month for May, and now it looks like we will continue to see a lot of volatility. It is worth paying close attention to the $1800 level because it has been critical multiple times. That being said, we could go much lower, and if we break down below the lows of the month of May, there is not a lot to keep this market from dropping down to the $1700 level.

The $1900 level above will continue to be a significant issue to deal with, and if we can break above there, then it is likely that we could reach the $2000 level. That obviously would be a big move, and I think that is probably asking a lot out of the month of June. June does tend to be a little bit quiet, so there is also the possibility that we will spend quite a bit of the month consolidating. This is my base case scenario currently. The market has sold off quite drastically, so it is not inconceivable that we would go sideways to stabilize and then perhaps become comfortable with the idea of buying gold again. After all, unless something drastic happens, it is doubtful that we would see this market simply take off during the month of June.

On the downside, if we were to break down below the $1700 level, that would be catastrophic. However, that is not very likely to happen without a significant spike in the US dollar. More likely than not, the market will continue to ping around the $1800 level, give or take $50 occasionally. The volume and participation in June tend to be a bit weak, so I would not be surprised to have more or less a back-and-forth type of range that we are dealing with.

Pay close attention to the US bond yields because if we continue to see them elevated, that does work against the value of gold, but on the other hand, if we see yields fall suddenly, then owning gold becomes a bit more palatable. I think we are going to have a very quiet couple of months, as we are simply back where we started from the most recent rally. Most of the trading you will be doing during the month of June will probably be half of the shorter time frames.