The pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the next key resistance point at 0.7200.

Bullish View

• Buy the AUD/USD and set a take-profit at 0.7200.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 0.7050 and a take-profit at 0.6970.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7100.

The AUD/USD price soared to the highest level since June 10th of this year after the latest American consumer inflation data. It rose to a high of 0.7110, which was about 6.1% above the lowest level this year.

US Inflation Eases

The AUD/USD price jumped sharply after the US consumer inflation data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the headline CPI dropped from 1.3% to 0.0% in July. This decline translated to a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, which was lower than the previous 9.1%.

Core inflation also declined from 0.7% to 0.3%, which was lower than the median estimate of 0.5%. As a result, it remained at 5.9% on an annualized basis. Additional data showed that real earnings rose by 0.5% from the previous -0.9%.

Inflation dropped because of the falling oil prices. Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has dropped from the year-to-date high of over $135 to below $100. At the same time, gasoline prices declined from the year-to-date high of $5 to a low of $4.

Analysts expect that inflation will continue falling considering that the price of other commodities has also dropped. Lumber has dropped to the lowest level in months. The same is true with others like iron ore and copper.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair rose since investors expect that the Federal Reserve will slow down on its rate hike policies. It has already hiked by 225 basis points this year and analysts believe that it will hike by 50 basis points in the September meeting.

There will be no economic data from Australia on Thursday. Therefore, focus will be on the upcoming US producer price index (PPI) data. Economists expect the data to show that PPI dropped from 11.3% to 10.4% in July.

AUD/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair rose to a high of 0.7108 after the strong American inflation data. As it rose, it moved above the important resistance level at 0.7048, which was the highest point on August 1. It has managed to move above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the first resistance of the standard pivot point.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the next key resistance point at 0.7200. A drop below the support at 0.7050 will invalidate the bullish view.

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After reversing from its highs achieved last week, the USD/CAD has found what appears to be durable short-term support and moved upwards this morning.

The USD/CAD is trading near the 1.30045 vicinity of this writing.  After falling through the 1.30000 mark on the 8^th of July, in early trading this Monday the USD/CAD currency pair has been able to muster upwards bullish behavior and is again threatening key resistance levels which if toppled could spark additional speculative action to the upside.

Bullish Behavior in USD/CAD has started to Build Again via Technical Action

The USD/CAD continues to traverse within a range that is challenging long term highs which have not seen a serious test of values above the 1.31000 mark since November 2020. Fundamentally the price of energy products remains high, but oil has seen some of its higher values erode over the past few weeks incrementally and other commodity prices have begun to stumble as well. This is not written as a prediction that crude oil prices are going to remain stable and even move lower, merely an observation of market action and the potential that inflation threats are starting to de-escalate.

• The USD/CAD 1.30000 mark remains a critical psychological mark for traders.
• If the USD/CAD breaks above and sustains the 1.30100 level it could be a bullish signal.

The USD/CAD was able to touch a high of nearly 1.30880 on the 5^th of July.  On the 6^th of July the price of the USD/CAD currency pair once again moved towards this mark, but the price reversed lower and on the 8^th of July the Forex pair touch nearly 1.29355. In early trading today after testing these depths again, the USD/CAD has begun to climb and its ability to topple the 1.30000 with relative ease is noteworthy.

A Slight Move Higher Could Signal Bullish Behavior has Room to Roam in USD/CAD

The USD/CAD remains within the upper tiers of its value technically and while the run higher on the 5^th of July did run out of power, it remains an interesting target for traders with a bullish perspective.  If the USD/CAD is able to break above the 1.30100 resistance level which is relatively nearby this could be a signal that buying firepower could cause technical traders to believe speculative positions aiming for the 1.30150 to 1.30200 could be intriguing wagers, particularly considering the USD/CAD traded near 1.30300 at the end of last week.

Bullish speculators should practice their risk management wisely. The USD/CAD like all other Forex pairs is proving volatile within the current trading landscaped due to complications the U.S Federal Reserve is causing via its interest rate policy and its unclear outlook as U.S economic conditions seemingly offer conflicting data on a daily basis.

Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.30125

Current Support: 1.29850

High Target: 1.30525

Low Target: 1.29100

The pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance point at 0.6930.

Bullish View

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6930.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6800.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 0.6830 and a take-profit at 0.6750.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6930.

The AUD/USD pair moved sideways as focus remains on the falling commodity prices and the strong American jobs data. The pair is trading at 0.6852, which is slightly above this month’s low of 0.7760. This price is significantly lower than June’s high of 0.7288.

Hawkish Fed Priced In

The AUD/USD pair has been in a consolidation mode in the past few weeks as investors continue watching the actions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve.

In its meeting this month, the RBA decided to hike interest rates by 0.50% after delivering a similar one in the previous month. The bank has now hiked rates by 125 basis points and pointed to further hikes later this year.

The Federal Reserve will have its meeting in the final week of the month. Minutes by the FOMC that were published last week revealed that the committee was inclined to deliver another 0.75% rate hike this month.

The case for another bigger hike was supported by the relatively strong economic data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The numbers revealed that the economy’s labor market is substantially stronger than what analysts were expecting.

The economy added over 372k jobs in June, which was better than what analysts were expecting. In the same period, wages rose by more than 5% while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%.

Therefore, with the labor market strengthening and with inflation soaring, analysts expect that the bank will continue hiking rates this month.

The AUD/USD is also ranging as investors focus on the relationship between China and Australia. China is seriously considering removing sanctions it has placed on most Australian goods. In a meeting the Chinese and Australian foreign ministers said that they will work on rebuilding trade relations. Notably, they did not provide a timetable of how this will happen.

AUD/USD Forecast

The AUD/USD pair has been rangebound in the past few weeks. The pair has managed to move above the important resistance level at 0.6831, which was the lowest level in May. It is also attempting to move above the 50-day moving average and the standard pivot point. It is also slightly below the descending trendline shown in blue.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance point at 0.6930, which is along the first resistance of the standard pivot point.

The pair will likely keep falling as bears target the key resistance at 1.2000.

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.200.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2200.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2166 and a take-profit at 1.2250.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2100.

The GBP/USD price continued in a consolidation phase as investors waited for a statement by Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey and the release of the country’s financial stability report. The pair is trading at 1.2100, which is slightly below Monday’s high of 1.2166.

Andrew Bailey Statement

The GBP/USD will be in the spotlight as Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, the head of the BOE. He will speak as the bank launches the financial stability report that will provide more information about the economy and the banking sector.

Bailey will likely not make any new news in his speech. In an ECB event last week, he lamented that the UK economy was weakening at a rapid rate than anticipated. Indeed, the economy contracted in April and May and analysts expect that it declined in Q2.

Other leading economic data have sent warnings about the economy. For example, numbers by the Nationwide Society revealed that the house price index declined in June as mortgage rates jumped. Further data by Gfk showed that the country’s consumer confidence declined sharply as consumer inflation surged.

The GBP/USD pair will also react to the upcoming UK services and composure PMI numbers. These are important leading indicators that provide a gauge about the country’s economy. Based on the flash estimates published recently, analysts expect the data to show that the services PMI dropped to 53.4 while the composite on fell to 53.1. Still, since the PMI is above 50, it is a sign that output in the country is still strong.

The pair will also react to the reopening of Wall Street since American markets were closed on Monday for Independence Day celebrations. The next important catalyst for the GBP/USD price will be the upcoming American jobs data.

GBP/USD Forecast

The 4H chart reveals that the GBP/USD pair formed a break and retest pattern. It retested the important resistance level of 1.2166, which was the lowest point on June 23rd. The pair remained below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below the neutral point at 50.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the key resistance at 1.2000. A move above the resistance at 1.2166 will invalidate the bearish view.

The USD/CAD has come off of highs and is bouncing along important mid-term support levels in early trading this morning.

After nearly hitting the 1.29670 ratio on the 1^st of July and threatening to test higher values seen via a one month technical chart, the USD/CAD has reversed lower.  As of this writing the Forex pair is near the 1.28450 mark, and earlier this morning flirted with lows displayed yesterday around the 1.28380 level. Technically the USD/CAD is hovering near important mid-term support, and if there is enough selling pressure the 1.28180 could find it is challenged.

Compared to many of the other major currencies the Canadian Dollar has done better against the USD since November of 2021. Yes, the USD/CAD has climbed upward from its mark of 1.22850 which was seen in October of 2021, but the move higher has been choppy and filled with volatile trading. Speculators of the USD/CAD technically can certainly follow trends, but they need to acknowledge the rides up and down sometimes look like a series of rather steep ski slopes.

A major behavioral sentiment consideration today is the fact U.S financial institutions started disappearing from the trading landscape last Friday, as their employees escaped for a long holiday weekend.  The past couple of trading days have seen the USD/CAD sold in a healthy fashion, but can its results be trusted? Will the return of full volume today and tomorrow alter the direction of the USD/CAD as equilibrium is found? Conservative traders may want to watch the first few hours of trading this afternoon to get a better feel for the direction of the USD/CAD via their technical perspectives.

While many traders may believe the USD/CAD has been overbought the past handful of months, finding the precise time when a meaningful move lower is going to happen remains difficult.  Intriguingly as the USD/CAD comes within eyesight of the key support level of 1.28180, which was last seen on the 28^th of June traders may become instinctively bearish. If this price level falters the USD/CAD could aim for the 1.27930 value last seen on 13^th of June, which was two days ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s official rate hike.

Caution may prove to be a good policy today for speculators. The bullish trend of the USD/CAD certainly still exists, even though support levels are momentarily being challenged. If the USD/CAD should start to move higher upon the return of U.S financial institutions, it could signify that resistance levels will start to become vulnerable and price action may touch higher values near term.

Canadian Dollar Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1.28690

Current Support: 1.28350

High Target: 1.29130

Low Target: 1.28030

The price will become more bullish if it gets established above $1.2137.

My last GBP/USD signal on 28^th June was not triggered, as none of the key levels I had identified that day were reached during the session.

Today’s GBP/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $1.2043 or $1.1976.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $1.2114, $1.2137, $1.2212, or $1.2222.

• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

GBP/USD Analysis

I wrote in my last forecast on 28^th June that the price was making a relatively wide and choppy consolidation between $1.2338 and $1.2161. I thought that these levels were likely to hold over the day and maybe for longer. This was an accurate call but as the levels were not reached there were no trade signals.

The technical picture is much more bearish now, with the US Dollar regaining much of its strength in line with the long-term trend, and the British Pound looking weak on poor UK economic data and the Bank of England’s inflation forecast as high as 11%. This sent the GBP/USD price falling close to a new 2-year low last week.

The overall picture looks bearish, so it makes sense for swing traders to wait for retracements to resistance levels and look to take short trades there at reversals. We already saw this happen during the Asian session as the price rejected $1.2114.

I am happy today to look for short trades from $1.2114, $1.2137, or $1.2212. I have more confidence in the first two levels mentioned. These may be best taken as scalping trades as today’s London session is likely to die out after only about 4 or 5 hours today, as there is a major holiday in the USA. It will probably be wise to be conservative with taking any profits.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the GBP or USD. It is a major public holiday today in the USA.

ETH/USD has produced a rather consolidated range the past handful of days, but the value of Ethereum has edged lower in recent trading.

ETH/USD is trading near the 1180.00 ratio as of this writing.  Ethereum has demonstrated a rather consolidated price range in recent trading, but its failure to sustain momentum higher, while still firmly within a long-term bearish mode, has not built confidence. A slow erosion of value the past two days may be adding to nervous sentiment for speculators of ETH/USD.

On the 25^th and 26^th of June ETH/USD was able to produce a rather steady amount of trading above the 1200.00 mark. Yes, reversals lower after gains have been made are a common dynamic of market action, but the inability of ETH/USD to sustain its higher prices within the midst of poor behavioral sentiment among traders is not a positive sign. Certainly a ‘whale’ could emerge who will suddenly start buying ETH/USD and lead a strong charge higher, but until evidence springs forward to show a buying surge is about to ignite, bullish traders may want to stay cautious.

ETH/USD as of this writing is very close to important technical support. If the 1170.00 value falters and Ethereum starts trading below the 1165.00 ratio, speculators may get worried that another round of selling is going to test boundaries below. If the 1150.00 level were to be challenged, ETH/USD could suddenly find itself testing price junctures seen on the 24^th of June when the cryptocurrency touched the 1130.00 value.

Optimistic bulls will argue that the current price of ETH/USD is far better than the lows seen a little more than one week ago when the 900.00 level was broken on the 18^th of June.  However, sellers of ETH/USD who want to speculate on nervous conditions continuing to boil cannot be blamed. Traders are urged to remain conservative and use limited amounts of leverage on their wagers. If ETH/USD continues to consolidate and fails to show sincere price velocity upwards, another wave of selling could be produced sooner rather than later.

If ETH/USD fails to challenge the 1195.00 mark above and if the 1200.00 does not see a sustained amount of trading above, Ethereum may have another round of downward momentum to display.  The trend lower in ETH/USD has not vanished and support levels remain within sight. The buying which has been demonstrated the past week of trading has likely not convinced sellers of ETH/USD that it is time to stop shorting Ethereum. If the 1130.00 support level falters short term, volatility in Ethereum could erupt into lower moves.

Ethereum Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 1207.00

Current Support: 1150.00

High Target: 1261.00

Low Target: 1042.00

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 29,00 and a take-profit at 28,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 32,000.
• Timeline: 1 day

Bullish View

• Place a buy-stop at 30.500 and a take-profit at 32,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 29,500.

The BTC/USD declined sharply in he overnight session as its recovery hit a strong resistance at 31,426. It dropped to 29,500, its lowest level since Saturday.

Bitcoin Slow Recovery

Bitcoin has been in a narrow range in the past few weeks. In this period, the coin has remained between the important support at $28,368 and resistance point at $31,500.

Bitcoin’s declined happened as stocks and other assets erased earlier gains. On Monday, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices rose by more than 0.50% but pared gains towards the close. Their futures show that they have dropped by more than 0.30%.

The coin is falling ahead of the coming Consensus event that will take place in Texas starting from Thursay. This is one of the most important events in the blockchain industry as it features some of the most important players in the sector.

Some of the most notable speakers in this meeting will be Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX, Abby Johnson of Fidelity, Dan Schulman of PayPal, and Changpeng Zhao of Binance. Still, it is unlikely that the event will cause major movements in Bitcoin this week.

The BTC/USD pair is also reacting to the decision by New York politicians to ban Proof-of-Work, which is the technology that allows Bitcoin mining. The bill will now be sent to Governor Hochul, who is expected to sign it into law. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that there is more inflow among Bitcoin buyers.

BTC/USD Forecast

Bitcoin has been in a tight range in the past few weeks after it crashed to the lowest level in months. It has already dropped by more than 50% from its all-time high while the total market cap has dropped to about $600 billion.

On the four-hour chart, we see that the pair dropped sharply after it hit the important resistance at 31,426.As it dropped, it moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the MACD has dropped below the neutral point.

The BTC/USD pair is also slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will continue its bearish breakout as bears target the key support at 28,500.A move above Monday’s high of 31,426 will invalidate the bearish view.

It seems like the bearish trend will continue as bears target the key support level at 1.2418, which was the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD and set a take-profit at 1.2418.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2550.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2540 and a take-profit at 1.2600.
• Add a stop-loss at 22450.

The GBP/USD pair is hovering near its lowest level since May 20th after the positive data from the UK. The pair is trading at 1.2488, which is about 2% below the highest level on May 27th ahead of the important US inflation data.

US Dollar Stages Comeback

The GBP/USD pair has retreated in the past few days as investors focus on the relatively strong US dollar. The closely-watched dollar index has risen in the past two straight days as investors continue pricing more risks in the market.

Last week, the market received key warning signs from corporate America. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of the biggest bank in the United States, warned that the situation was worsening. Tesla’s Elon Musk also issued a similar warning.

A few weeks before, important companies like Walmart and Target which employ a vast number of Americans warned that inflation was a major challenge. Therefore, investors are now anticipating a potential recession, which explains why stocks have retreated.

The GBP/USD retreated after the better-than-expected jobs numbers from the US made the case that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening in the coming months. The bank has already committed to delivering at least three more 0.50% hikes in the coming meetings.

Looking ahead, the pair will react to the upcoming US consumer inflation data that will come out on Friday. Analysts expect these numbers to show that the headline CPI declined from 8.3% in April to 8.1% in May. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, analysts expect that inflation fell from 6.2% to 5.9%. This will be a sign that inflation is now stabilizing.

The GBP/USD pair will also react to the reopening of the UK after the country’s long public holiday in honor of Queen Elizabeth.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair formed a rising wedge pattern that is shown in black. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bearish sign. This breakout happened last week when it move below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Now, the pair is approaching the important support at 1.2465, which was the lowest level on June 1.

Therefore, it seems like the bearish trend will continue as bears target the key support level at 1.2418, which was the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

DOGE/USD has stumbled to new short term lows in early trading this morning, as nervous sentiment in the broad cryptocurrency markets picks up momentum.

DOGE/USD is traversing near 12 cents in early trading this morning and it is moving along a very vulnerable support level.  Dogecoin may have lost its favor as the favorite speculative digital asset in the cryptocurrency world with the emergence of competitors like Shiba Inu over six months ago, but DOGE/USD should be watched carefully today.

DOGE/USD has certainly traded towards lower values the past week and it is testing support levels which if broken lower could produce additional fireworks for speculators.  Importantly as DOGE/USD trades lower this morning, the cryptocurrency has still maintained some of its value above mid-March lows. While many of the other major cryptocurrencies have broken vital February and January 2022 lows, DOGE/USD has somehow sustained its value above critical lows which saw the 11 cents mark tested in March.

This seemingly odd notion leads itself to the belief that this proves DOGE/USD are a stubborn group of traders.  Long term Dogecoin holders may not be willing to sell DOGE/USD no matter what happens and may be willing to go down with the ship, meaning this is the reason prices for the speculative asset have not reached the lows of its major counterparts technically. However it also highlights that DOGE/USD may be approaching a critical juncture. If more selling occurs short term and vital lows are broken, long term holders may be forced to sell their positions.

If DOGE/USD falls below the 12 cents mark and cannot climb back above the value in the short term, it may signal additional selling is going to develop in Dogecoin and the broad cryptocurrency market. Even though DOGE/USD may not be the brightest speculative star in the cryptocurrency world anymore, Dogecoin still has a steady group of followers who like its unique speculative landscape. If DOGE/USD sinks below 12 cents, and the 11 and a half cents level is challenged, this could set off shock waves.

Once considered the sweetheart of the cryptocurrency speculative crowd with talk suggesting DOGE/USD could trade above a U.S dollar one day, DOGE/USD now is in serious danger of seeing the 10 cents juncture come into view. DOGE/USD is a speculative asset. Traders who want to pursue selling positions of Dogecoin within the existing bearish trend cannot be blamed, but risk management needs to be practiced. If DOGE/USD breaks below 12 cents short term, the 11 and half cents and lower depths could be legitimate wagering targets. Careful leverage and use of stop loss and take profit orders are highly urged.

Dogecoin Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.12620000

Current Support: 0.12090000

High Target: 0.13390000

Low Target: 0.10910000