I expect the USD/JPY currency pair to remain within its ascending channel range until the US job numbers are announced by the end of the week. 

A bullish price gap characterized the performance of the price of the USD/JPY at the beginning of this week’s trading. The currency pair moved towards the resistance level 139.00 before settling around the 138.70 level at the time of writing the analysis.

There is an opportunity to move towards the psychological resistance level of 140.00, where the strength factors of the US dollar against everyone are still strong. The US dollar gained strong impetus from the indications and confirmation of the US Federal Reserve governor that the bank is determined to increase US interest rates in a strong and continuous way. The announcement came amid weak bets that the US economy will enter a recession as many had expected before.

Powell said that the size of the Fed’s rate increase at its next meeting in late September – either half or three-quarters of a percentage point – will depend on inflation and jobs data. However, an increase in either size would exceed the traditional Fed-mandated increase by a quarter of a point, which reflects how severe inflation is. The Fed chair said that while the low inflation readings reported for July were “welcome”, adding that “the one-month improvement is much less than what (federal policy makers) will need to see before we can be confident that Inflation is moving down”.

Last Friday, the Fed’s inflation data showed that prices fell 0.1% from June to July. Although prices jumped 6.3% in July from 12 months earlier, that is down from 6.8% year-over-year in June, which was the highest since 1982. The drop largely reflected lower gas prices.

In his Friday speech, Powell noted that the history of high inflation in the 1970s, when the central bank sought to counter high inflation by raising interest rates intermittently, shows that the Fed must remain focused. He added that “the historical record strongly warns against cutting interest rates prematurely,” and that “we must continue to do so until the job is done.”

Of particular concern to Powell and other Fed officials is the potential for inflation to become entrenched, prompting consumers and businesses to change their behavior in ways that perpetuate high prices. If workers, for example, begin to demand higher wages to keep up with higher inflation, many employers will pass on higher labor costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. Many analysts are speculating that Fed officials would like to see lower monthly inflation readings for about six months, like July, before stopping the rate hike.

USD/JPY Forecast:

• I expect the USD/JPY currency pair to remain within its ascending channel range until the US job numbers are announced by the end of the week.
• Amid the continuation of the bullish momentum, I do not rule out testing the 140.00 psychological resistance, the highest for the currency pair in 25 years.
• Including and among the highest of them is the event that you can think of concluding selling deals without risk and waiting for sales to take profits, which may occur at any time.

On the downside, it broke the support 136.00, a first breach of the current ascending channel, and it is not considered a change in direction without breaking the 132.90 level. Today, the US Consumer Confidence and the number of US job vacancies will be announced.

Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best Forex brokers in the industry for you.

Even if we do rally from here, then it’s likely that we will see an opportunity to short this market again, especially as the US dollar has been like a wrecking ball against almost everything. 

The EUR/USD has gone back and forth during trading on Monday, as we continue to see the parity level attract a lot of attention. It’s worth noting that the market is simply chopping around, and it’s not doing anything right now. That does make a certain amount of sense that we are going to continue to see a lot of confusion around this area, just simply because there’s a lot of psychology attached to the idea of parity.

The US dollar will continue to be stronger than the Euro in general since the European Union has a whole host of issues that the United States does not have to deal with. The first one of course is going to be energy and the fact that it may be running out of energy. At this point, there are a lot of concerns about the EU energy supply this winter, and there does not seem to be anything out there changing the outlook for Europe. Because of this, the economic outlook for Europe must be thought of as poor at best.

Dollar Backed by Federal Reserve

• The US dollar is backed by a very hawkish central bank, one that is willing to fight inflation. In other words, interest rates are going up in America and that typically does help the currency.
• Beyond that, we also must look at this through the prism of simple momentum.
• The Euro has been falling for ages, and it does take quite some time to turn the entire trend around.

Even if we do rally from here, then it’s likely that we will see an opportunity to short this market again, especially as the US dollar has been like a wrecking ball against almost everything. The 50 Day EMA sits just above the 1.02 level, and I think then continues to be an area that people will pay close attention to. After that, the market then starts to focus on the will .04 level, an area that has been important a couple of times in the past, as it had previously been supported. “Market memory” could come into the picture and offer a certain amount of resistance selling. Either way, I don’t have an interest in buying the Euro anytime soon, and therefore I’m just looking to pick up the US dollar “on the cheap.”

Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best Forex brokers to choose from.

• The US dollar recovered strongly after announcing the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which contributed to the increase in the selling of the gold price.
• Its losses reached the support level of 1760 dollars per ounce before settling around the 1763 dollars per ounce level at the time of writing the analysis.
• The XAU/USD gold price abandoned the $1800 psychological resistance at the beginning of this week’s trading.
• Investors have increased their appetite to buy the dollar as a haven, in addition to the strength factors from the future tightening of the US central bank’s policy, which is negative for gold.

Gold analysts’ expectations in the coming days:

A new institutional analysis has found that the XAU/USD gold price is likely to be supported by continued hedging demand by investors, and a new medium-term technical analysis says a return to the $1835 resistance cannot be ruled out.

The latest research report from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that they expect the precious metal to remain relatively supported in the near term. “Gold is likely to remain reactive to real prices, driven by the speed with which global central banks are tightening monetary policy in an effort to control inflation,” WGC says in its mid-year analysis. The report adds that although the Fed is likely to continue raising interest rates and creating potential headwinds for gold, many of this hawkish policy is “priced in”. Meanwhile, persistent inflation and geopolitical risks are likely to keep gold in demand as a hedge, the report says.

He adds that “the weak performance of stocks and bonds in a potentially inflationary environment may also be positive for gold.”

From a technical perspective, Bill McNamara, Director of The Technical Trader says that the gold chart deserves a closer look after its latest price move. He stated, “The weekly chart shows that the price is heading to the upside since it fell back to the trading low of $ 1,680 three weeks ago, at which point it tested – successfully – the support in the form of bottoms that were originally formed again in the first half of 2021.”

Over the past four weeks, gold prices have risen 5.6%, their best performance since February/March, when they rose to $2,052.41 an ounce. The analyst added, “Her most recent price movement pushed it to a five-week high, and it should be noted that it does not look particularly overbought at this point (RSI = 61%), which means there may still be room for more approach.” He also said that the next area of ​​potential resistance would be at $1,835 or so, at which point it would have rebounded nearly 38.2% of the selling started in March.

XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today:

We still prefer buying gold from every descending level, and the closest and most appropriate buying levels for that are 1754 and 1738 dollars, respectively. On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart, the bulls will not control the trend again without moving towards the psychological resistance of 1800 dollars an ounce again. The price of gold will be affected today by the price of the US dollar, the extent to which investors are willing to risk or not, the reaction from the announcement of inflation figures in the euro area, the announcement of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, and the number of US weekly jobless claims.

Ready to trade today’s Gold prediction? Here’s a list of some of the best Gold brokers to check out.

This remains a “paid the rally” type of market, but perhaps more or less from a shorter timeframe than I normally trade from.

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to see a lot of noise right around the 1.20 level, an area that has been important multiple times. By hanging around this area, it shows that the market is not quite ready to break down, and therefore it’s likely that we will do more sideways action than anything else. This does make a certain amount of sense as the world is trying to figure out what central banks are going to do.

The Jackson Hole Symposium next week will almost certainly influence the markets as well, as several central bankers around the world will meet and give speeches. The British are now worrying about inflation that is running at over 10% year-over-year, although the Americans are still at 8.5%. This is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy and trying to figure out who’s going to be the more hawkish of the two.

The Federal Reserve continues to try to convince people that they are going to be hawkish, but it’s possible that they may already be looking at slowing down a bit if the June Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes are to be believed. That’s obviously in the past, but that was released during the day, and it suggested that perhaps there are some second thoughts at this point.

Markets Continue to be Noisy

• If we break it down below the 1.20 level, then it’s likely that this market will go hunting the 1.18 level underneath, an area that has a lot of previous support.
• This is from a short-term perspective.
• Breaking down below that level then opens the possibility of even more US dollar strength.

At this point, it looks as if the world is going into a global recession, so I think that it is probably only a matter of time before the US dollar picks up strength on any bounce. In fact, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to buy this market until we get above the 1.26 level, something that I don’t see happening anytime soon. It remains a “paid the rally” type of market, but perhaps more or less from a shorter timeframe than I normally trade from. Markets continue to be noisy, so you may need to watch interest rates in both of these countries get a bit of a heads up.

Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best Forex brokers in the industry for you.

I’m using the 200-Day EMA as a bit of a signal as to which way we’re going.

The S&P 500 Index has pulled back during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise right around the 4300 level. The E-mini contract also has the 200 Day EMA sitting just above there, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we have seen a lot of noisy behavior in this general vicinity. Furthermore, you can make an argument that perhaps the market is a little overbought at this point.

The fundamental situation has not been good. Wall Street continues to start buying stocks every chance it gets since traders are hoping that the Federal Reserve will step off the brakes, giving the opportunity for cheap money to be able to gamble with again. This is the monster that the Federal Reserve has created, and therefore it’s the monster that they must deal with.

If we were to turn around a break above the 200 Day EMA, it would open quite a bit of buying pressure, perhaps sending this market all the way up to the 4500 level. The E-mini contract has been very bullish right along with the underlying index, but at this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of pressure.

Forecast for S&P 500

• If we do break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, then it’s possible that we could pull back to the 4100 level.
• We are going to see a lot of back-and-forth and noisy trading.
• This is a market that I think will continue to move on the latest perception of the Federal Reserve.

Next week we have the problems with the central bank speakers at the Jackson Hole Symposium. They will be doing everything they can to be serious about fighting inflation, so I think we continue to see a lot of chop and back and forth. However, I’m using the 200-Day EMA as a bit of a signal as to which way we’re going. In general, it’s obvious that there is a lot of buying pressure, but at this point in time I don’t think confidence is something that is a for sure deal.

Ready to trade the S&P 500 Forex? We’ve shortlisted the best CFD brokers in the industry for you

Once we do get a move, it could be rather sizable and profitable for those who are patient enough to wait for it to show itself.

• Gold markets rallied a bit on Friday to reach toward the $1800 level in the spot market.
• It’s worth noting that we have seen a lot of selling pressure in this area, so it does suggest that we are going to see a big fight on our hands.
• It’s also worth noting that this market has a high sensitivity to interest rates, something that a lot of people are focusing on right now.

The Future of Fed Monetary Policy

There’s a big argument right now between traders as to whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to continue to tighten monetary policy in the face of significant inflation. The Federal Reserve has stated repeatedly that they are in fact going to do so, but Wall Street does not seem to believe that. They have caused a massive squeeze on certain risk assets under the idea that the Fed will eventually bend their way. If the Fed does in fact end up loosening monetary policy, that is good for gold. Looking at the interest rate markets, it appears that a lot of people believe they will.

That being said, there’s also the possibility that perhaps people are buying bonds for the fact that they see a recession coming. We have a lot of crosscurrents at the same time, so it’s difficult to imagine that the trade in gold is going to be simple. However, I have a couple of levels that I am paying close attention to, beginning with the $1815 level. If we can break above that level, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to reach the 200-Day EMA.

On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the 50-day EMA underneath, then it opens up a lot of selling pressure. The $1750 level underneath could be a significant support level, as it had been a previous resistance barrier. In this scenario, we would probably see the US dollar pick up quite a bit of strength as well. Overall, I think we are at the major inflection point and will have to watch where the next squeeze comes from, and which direction it kicks often. Once we do get a move, it could be rather sizable and profitable for those who are patient enough to wait for it to show itself.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

This is a market that I think will be choppy and difficult to put a lot of money in.

• The AUD/USD currency pair pulled back a bit from the crucial 0.70 level, as we have seen happen multiple times.
• As we wait for the CPI number to come out on Wednesday, it’s likely that we are going to see some type of bigger move.
• If the CPI number comes out hotter than anticipated, which would be the 0.5% level month over month, that could send this market reeling to the downside.

On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the 0.7050 level, then it’s probably going to be a result of the CPI number coming out cooler than anticipated. In that scenario, it’s possible that market participants may do everything they can to convince themselves that the Federal Reserve is going to loosen monetary policy. While that may take some of the aggressiveness out of the situation, the reality is that we are still very much in a downtrend, and for multiple reasons.

Commodity Markets Selling Off

When you look at commodity markets, they have been selling off in general, and that of course puts a bit of negativity into the Aussie dollar. I think given enough time, we will probably try to test the lows again, but I don’t think necessarily that it is a market that we should be buying. However, there are a couple of levels above that could cost some issues anyway. Not the least of which would be the 200-day EMA which is sitting just below the 0.72 level.

If we turn around and start falling apart, the 0.69 level is an area where I would see a lot of support, and if we break down below that level then we will almost certainly try to get down to the low at 0.67. Keep in mind that there is a lot of economic and inflationary noise out there that is going to cause this market to be choppy at best. The 50 Day EMA is right in the middle of the consolidation area that we are in right now, so that will attract a certain amount of algorithmic trading as well. This is a market that I think will be choppy and difficult to put a lot of money in. However, we should get a bit more clarity by the end of the Wednesday session, so analysis tomorrow will probably be much more convincing.

Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex trading platforms to check out.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s buy trade was activated, and half of the contracts were closed with the price rising towards the target and providing a stop loss point.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Turkish Lira Economic Outlook

The lira did not benefit from the dollar’s weakness after the Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday to raise interest rates by 75 points as expected, which the markets have already priced in. Jerome Powell’s comments also increased pressure on the dollar’s price, which fell against most of the major currencies since yesterday. The Federal Reserve Chairman said that the bank will slow down the pace of raising the interest rate in the United States, which benefited all financial assets such as stock markets, gold and cryptocurrencies as well as currencies that jumped against the US dollar. However, the economic conditions experienced by the economy in Turkey, especially the high inflation, which exceeded its highest levels in about 25 years. This was especially with the rise in the bill for energy imports and the depletion of the cash reserves with the Turkish Central Bank and the adoption of a special stimulus policy with the fixing of the interest rate about 10 months ago. This may make the Turkish lira price improvement unattainable.

Technical Outlook USD/TRY

The Turkish lira fell against the US dollar, as the pair returned to its attempt to reach the top recorded during the current year, after a temporary decline during yesterday’s trading. The pair failed to break the ascending trend line on the four-hour time frame shown on the chart, at the same time the pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 17.80 and 17.70 levels, respectively. Meanwhile, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.32, respectively. The pair is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200 on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the bullish trend on the medium term. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex trading platforms to check out.

The Bitcoin market has fallen again during the trading session on Thursday to break back below the $20,000 level. At this point, it looks as if it is going to threaten the lows, closer to the $18,000 level. By all accounts, Bitcoin is nowhere near done selling off, and I do think that we have the ability to pick up Bitcoin at much lower levels. It is because of this that I have not been active in this market, nor do I think that it is one that you need to be worried about at the moment. The market will continue to see a lot of negative headwinds, especially as so much of the crypto world has imploded.

Tightening financial conditions continue to be a major problem for cryptocurrency markets and the rest of the financial world, and that is not going to change anytime soon. It is because of this that I think you have plenty of time to get involved, as we are almost certainly going to enter a significant “crypto winter.” That being said, what you will more likely than not see is a level where people were willing to sit on the sidelines, and bigger traders start to accumulate.

The market has formed a massive “H pattern”, suggesting that it has further to go. Based on the measured move, you could see Bitcoin drop all the way down to the $10,000 region without much surprise. I anticipate somewhere between there and the $12,000 level, you will see more of a fight to stabilize. Once we start to see a lot of sideways action and seemingly nonchalant trading behavior, I will start accumulating. However, we are nowhere near that right now, and this is a market that still looks like sellers are out there waiting to get rid of it.

The US dollar strengthening has been like a wrecking ball for a lot of financial assets, and Bitcoin has proven itself to be no different than the others. For me, it has nothing to do with adoption, religion, or other such nonsense you hear around the Bitcoin world. For me, it’s about price. After all, Bitcoin is measured in US dollars, which probably tells you everything you need to know. Ultimately, it’s not until the US dollar loses strength that Bitcoin even has a chance.

The Euro has bounced from a major support level to show signs of life yet again. By doing so, the market looks as if it is ready to try to recover, but there are a lot of noisy areas above that could cause problems.

When I look at this chart, it’s obvious that the 1.04 level is supported, but I would also point out that the 1.06 level is likely to be significant resistance. Furthermore, the 50 Day EMA is just above there and is falling, so that should offer a bit of dynamic resistance as well. In that scenario, I fully anticipate that the market will continue to find a lot of noise between the two levels, as we try to sort out whether or not the Euro can save itself. I am of the camp that I do not believe it will.

The Federal Reserve is going to continue to tighten monetary conditions, which of course strengthens the US dollar overall. Furthermore, we have to keep in mind that the overall trend is to the downside, in trends in the Forex market don’t change very often. You continue to fade rallies in this market, you continue to get paid. The 1.04 level is stubborn, but you could have said the same thing about the 1.12 level, and perhaps even the 1.08 level.

The ECB is going to tighten its monetary policy, but it is so far behind the curve in relation to the US central bank that the trajectory still remains lower. Furthermore, if we are going to get a bit of a global slowdown, the US dollar suddenly becomes much more desirable, because it becomes a “safety asset.”

If we do break above the 1.06 level, then I think the 1.08 level is going to be very difficult to break above. Quite frankly, I think this is the type of market where you look for a rally that you can fade. That’s probably what I will be doing as I close the book this weekend, but I would like to see some type of exhaustion that I could start selling into. If we do break down below the 1.04 level, then the 1.02 level is targeted, followed by the parity level. That being said, the Euro is almost always choppy.