Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s buy trade was activated, and half of the contracts were closed with the price rising towards the target and providing a stop loss point.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Turkish Lira Economic Outlook

The lira did not benefit from the dollar’s weakness after the Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday to raise interest rates by 75 points as expected, which the markets have already priced in. Jerome Powell’s comments also increased pressure on the dollar’s price, which fell against most of the major currencies since yesterday. The Federal Reserve Chairman said that the bank will slow down the pace of raising the interest rate in the United States, which benefited all financial assets such as stock markets, gold and cryptocurrencies as well as currencies that jumped against the US dollar. However, the economic conditions experienced by the economy in Turkey, especially the high inflation, which exceeded its highest levels in about 25 years. This was especially with the rise in the bill for energy imports and the depletion of the cash reserves with the Turkish Central Bank and the adoption of a special stimulus policy with the fixing of the interest rate about 10 months ago. This may make the Turkish lira price improvement unattainable.

Technical Outlook USD/TRY

The Turkish lira fell against the US dollar, as the pair returned to its attempt to reach the top recorded during the current year, after a temporary decline during yesterday’s trading. The pair failed to break the ascending trend line on the four-hour time frame shown on the chart, at the same time the pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 17.80 and 17.70 levels, respectively. Meanwhile, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.32, respectively. The pair is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200 on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the bullish trend on the medium term. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The sell trade of the recommendation was activated yesterday, and the deal is still in circulation

Best selling entry points

• Entering a sell position with a pending order from 17.41 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from 17.00 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.88.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.40

The lira continues to decline against the major currencies, especially the dollar. The lira approached its lowest level recorded at the end of last year. This was before the Turkish president intervened with a new program aimed at protecting Turkish lira deposit holders from the local currency’s declines against the dollar. It seems that the impact of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plans did not bear fruit, as the lira continued its decline two months ago, after the stability of the price against the dollar during the months of February and March. The Turkish President’s statements yesterday were the bell for the collapse of the lira, as Erdogan said, “This government will not raise interest rates. On the contrary, we will continue to lower interest rates.” He added that such policies only benefit “those who lead a glamorous life to benefit from high interest “, including foreign investors. After these statements, the dollar broke the levels of 17 pounds and is still continuing to decline

On the technical front, the Turkish currency continued to decline against the dollar, as it broke the 17 levels during yesterday’s trading. 17.00. The lira fell to its lowest level against the dollar, which it recorded at the end of last year. The pair maintained its trading in a general bullish trend, as the pair continued trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 17.00 and 16.80 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.40 and 17.80, respectively. We expect a continuation of the lira’s decline, as each decline in the pair represents an opportunity to buy back. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy deal was activated, and half of the contracts were closed at a profit with the price advancing in the direction of the target

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from levels of 15.85
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 15.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.05.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 16.00 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.11.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 15.58

The Turkish lira traded near its lowest level ever during 2022. The lira lost nearly 16 percent of its value against the dollar after a 44 percent decline during 2021 as the 70 percent inflation rate pushed the price of lira. The exhaustion of solutions available to the Turkish Central Bank, after the futility of the plan to save deposits protected from the decline of the dollar from the government. The Turkish Central also continued to pressure local banks not to sell foreign currency to companies importing goods from abroad or that need hard currency to pay off previous loans. Reports published today confirmed that members of the Monetary Policy Committee will fix the interest rate at 14 percent during its meeting next Thursday. The bank is effectively subordinate to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who considers himself the number one enemy of interest rates. It does not seem that there is anything capable of stopping the loss of the lira against the dollar in light of the rise in inflation with the escalation of energy prices, and the rise in the current account deficit.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira continues to decline strongly against the dollar, the lira prices are currently varying within a narrow range shown on the chart, below the psychological resistance levels that are concentrated at 16.00 levels. The pair is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the pair is trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at 15.73 and 15.65 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.00 and 16.40. If the pair manages to break the mentioned resistance levels, with the pair’s rising momentum continuing, the way is open for the lira to reach 16.63 levels, which it recorded at the end of last year, as it is the first major resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s sell recommendation was activated, and it is still trading

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 15.22 levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 15.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 16.00 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.11.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 15.58

The Turkish lira continued to record more losses against the US dollar, especially during the last week. The Turkish currency lost its stability that lasted for four months with the start of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Western reports showed that the Turkish government has put pressure on local banks with the aim of limiting the sale of dollars to companies to stem the lira’s decline. Banks require approval from the country’s central bank before transferring corporate hard currency transactions. Analysts believe that the central bank’s current position may contribute to igniting the muffled tension among companies due to the lack of dollars needed for import operations or to pay off corporate debts with foreign banks.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell against the dollar during today’s early trading, the pair continued to rise above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is also trading the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 15.20 and 15.00, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 15.38 and 15.50. The pair is currently trading around 15.29 levels, which represents the 61 Fibonacci level of the descending wave that recorded its top on 12-12-2021 and recorded its bottom on 12-23-2021. If the pound’s current decline continues, the way is open to reach 16.63 levels, which it recorded at the end of last year, as it is the first major resistance level. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

We expect a continuation of the lira’s decline until the mentioned resistance levels.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s sell trade was activated and reached the stop loss point

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.88 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support level 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 15.29  levels
• The best points for placing a stop loss are closing the highest levels of 15.08.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.88

Turkish lira continues to decline against the US dollar, the lira recorded its lowest level this year, amid a strong decline in emerging market currencies and financial assets in general against the US dollar. Yesterday, most financial assets recorded strong declines as the stock markets, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, major currencies, and of course emerging market currencies declined. In light of the US Federal Reserve maintaining the policy of tightening against the policy of easing followed by the Turkish Central Bank, where the interest rate was fixed after cutting it by about 5 percent during the past year. The Turkish lira recorded a decline of about 40 percent during the past year, before regaining its balance at the end of the year, after which it began to decline at a weak pace.

On the technical level, the Turkish lira fell strongly against the dollar during yesterday’s trading, as the Turkish currency continued to decline to break the limited trading range in which the currency settled for a long time. The pair continued to rise above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time the pair is trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at 14.99 and 14.87 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 15.29 and 15.50. The pair targets 15.29 levels, which represents the 61 Fibonacci level of the descending wave that recorded its top on 12/21-2021 and recorded its bottom on 12/23-2021. We expect a continuation of the lira’s decline until the mentioned resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

XRP/USD remains near important lows after touching a depth it had not traversed since January, as the price of Ripple struggles to create positive momentum.

XRP/USD is trading near the 62 and a quarter cents ratio as of this writing.  This past Saturday saw XRP/USD slip to a value below the 57 cents level, a mark that had not been seen since the last week of January. The broad cryptocurrency market remains in a bearish mode and Ripple has certainly been caught within the tide of negative sentiment.

XRP/USD traded near the 62 and half cents level on the 23^rd and 24^th of February. Traders need to understand the price range XRP/USD is now traversing hasn’t sincerely been fought over since the last week of January in a sustained manner. If XRP/USD is not able to climb higher near term and remains under the 62 and half cents juncture, this could create additional fragile behavioral sentiment among traders.

If support near the 62 cents mark proves vulnerable, traders cannot be blamed for targeting lower values with selling positions. XRP/USD proved this weekend that it is capable of moving fast and the spike lower on Saturday mirrored results seen in other major cryptocurrencies as fear grew. Some speculators may want to claim that profit taking was a cause for the sharp decline this weekend, but the downwards trend in XRP/USD and other major cryptocurrencies are testing vital support across the crypto landscape.  

The notion that XRP/USD has now completely fallen through levels which were believed to be important support as the digital asset created a bullish trend from late February until late March is a poor indicator. The total reemergence of bearish momentum and failure of support levels to hold back selling, signals further declines could be demonstrated near term. If the 62 cents level is brushed aside, aiming for support near 61 and half cents seems almost reasonable. Volatility may continue to be exhibited in XRP/USD and traders need to use their risk management carefully.

Traders who want to pursue higher momentum and believe reversals will be demonstrated should not be overly ambitious regarding their targets.  XRP/USD has seen a steady loss of value the past couple of weeks and its price velocity this weekend was fast. Some traders may believe the worst of the selling is over, but speculators who decide to wager on higher moves should remain cautious.

Ripple Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.62820

Current Support: 0.61750

High Target: 0.64390

Low Target: 0.58550

Gold prices fell strongly towards the support level of $ 1881 an ounce, coinciding with a sharp rise in the price of the US dollar amid expectations of violent policy tightening by the Federal Reserve

The weakening of the Euro in the wake of the Russian gas cuts to Poland and Bulgaria also contributed to the sharp rise in the value of the US dollar. According to the performance, the US dollar index DXY, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, rose to a new high in 25 months, rising to the level of 103.28. The index is still high with a fairly strong gain of 0.54%.

On the US economic news front, US pending home sales declined for the fifth consecutive month in March, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. NAR said pending home sales fell 1.2% to 103.7 in March after tumbling 4% to 105.0 in February. Economists had expected pending home sales to fall 1.6%.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise US interest rates aggressively while intensifying its fight against inflation. In this regard, the Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that the US central bank may raise short-term interest rates by twice the usual amount in upcoming meetings, starting next week. It has already raised its key overnight interest rate, the first such increase since 2018.

Bond yields have generally risen throughout the year as investors prepare for higher rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.82% from 2.77% late Tuesday. Wall Street remains focused on inflation’s path forward amid persistent threats from Russia’s war against Ukraine and the virus epidemic.

Natural gas prices rose 24% over the last day in Europe and the euro weakened after Russia said it would cut supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. Natural gas and oil prices were already on the rise as the pandemic subsided and demand increased, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine added to the price hike. Crude oil and natural gas prices have soared so far in 2022, making gasoline and heating more expensive for consumers.

China’s strict lockdown measures have also heightened concerns about slowing economic growth due to the damage being done to the world’s second largest economy. The flow of industrial goods has been disrupted by the suspension of access to Shanghai, home to the world’s busiest port, and other industrial cities including Changchun and Jilin in northeastern China.

According to gold technical analysis: The recent strength of the US dollar was a major driver of the decline in the price of gold towards strong buying levels, and the closest to them are currently 1880 dollars, 1862 and 1845 dollars, respectively. I still prefer the strategy of buying gold from every bearish level, as the yellow metal has strength factors that still exist, which are currently represented in the current global fears of China being affected by the renewed outbreak of the epidemic. This is in addition to the continuation of the Russian/Ukrainian war and its negative consequences for the future of the global economy.

On the upside, the return of stability above the psychological resistance of 1900 supports the return of the bulls’ movement again. The gold market will be affected today by the level of the US dollar and the extent of investors’ appetite for risk or not, as well as the reaction from the announcement of the US economic growth rate and the number of US weekly jobless claims, and before any surprises from the Japanese central bank.

The downward trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is continuing. This path pushed the most popular currency pair in the forex market to the 1.0514 support level, the lowest in five years, and settled around the 1.0555 level at the time of writing the analysis.

The decline continued amid investor concerns about growth and threats to energy supplies from Russia. The single European currency, the euro, tumbled past the lowest level it reached in the first weeks of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, after Russia said it would cut gas to Poland and Bulgaria. There is now a possibility that the euro will close in April without its 20-year bullish trend, which could put parity with the dollar on the horizon.

In contrast, gains in the dollar accelerated and Russia’s arming of energy exports add to headwinds for the European currency, including the European Central Bank’s relatively more cautious stance on monetary tightening than the US Federal Reserve.

Traders, who requested anonymity because they are not authorized to comment on the forex foreign exchange market publicly, said that the currency’s decline since the New York close saw significant momentum in sell orders below the target low.

The European Union has rejected its demands to pay for Russian gas in rubles, but deadlines are now running out and governments need to decide whether to accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms or lose vital supplies. Concerns about global growth caused by the worsening virus outbreak in China also boosted the dollar at the expense of the single European currency.

On the future performance of the euro-dollar: Some analysts are of the opinion that a depreciation of the euro-dollar exchange rate could move it close to it, or achieve 1:1.

The Eurozone energy shock intensified in the last hours after news emerged that Russia would suspend gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. The reason Russia cited was the two countries’ failure to comply with their demand to pay for gas in rubles. For its part, Poland says it was prepared for this possibility, but indicates that Russia is increasingly ready to arm its energy exports. According to the performance, the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar fell from its highest levels near 1.15 before the outbreak of the war in February to 1.0515 today, as analysts say that the war poses significant threats to the growth of the euro area and the European Union.

Jeremy Bolton, market analyst at Reuters, says the chance of EUR/USD falling below parity is greater now than it was during the eurozone debt crisis in the early 2000s. Bolton added, “Demand for the dollar resulting from significant tightening in US monetary policy is likely to lead to a larger decline than in 2015 when bets on the end of the single European currency drove traders into a record sell-off and the pair fell to 1.0457.”

The analyst notes that the current betting shows traders are “gambling high” — confirming the view that the parity decline is not crowded. And when sites get crowded, it’s actually a headwind for movement, but when the market is relatively uncrowded, the “clear air” ahead of you allows the trend to extend. “In 2015, the policies of the European Central Bank were designed to save the euro. The current policies are weighing on them and there is the potential for a bigger disagreement with the Fed, not only to raise interest rates in a big way but also to reduce the balance sheet. This could push the EUR/USD pair much lower.”

According to the technical analysis of the pair: So far, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is still bearish. As mentioned before, the continuation of the weakness factors supports the current trend, the most prominent of which is the continuation of the Russian war and its repercussions. It is also in addition to the position of central banks towards tightening their policy, and the US Federal Reserve is leading this. Forex traders do not care about technical indicators reaching oversold levels and the persistence of weakness factors that open the way for a level test.

The bearish trend is stronger and the closest to it is currently 1.0500 and 1.0380, respectively.

On the upside, and according to the performance on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair needs to break the psychological resistance currently 1.1000. Otherwise, the trend will remain bearish, and I still prefer to sell the EUR/USD from every ascending level. The euro-dollar pair is awaiting the announcement of German inflation figures, then US economic growth figures and weekly jobless claims.

We expect the lira to decline.

USD/TRY Forex Signal

Risk 0.50%.

None of yesterday’s buy or sell transactions were activated

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.62 مستويات levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.85 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

The Turkish lira fell against the strong dollar as the pair recorded its lowest level in a month, with investors rushing the US dollar at the expense of most major currencies and currencies of emerging economies. The lira continued to suffer despite government efforts to collect the dollar and rely on the local currency in most of the internal transactions, as reports showed that the Turkish government had issued the use of the Turkish lira in transferable sales contracts compulsorily. The government also placed a ban on residents of the public and private sectors in Turkey from agreeing to their payment obligations or indexed in foreign currencies in the contracts concluded between them in relation to the sale and purchase of movable and immovable, and all types of movable and immovable leases and leases.

On the technical level, without major changes, the Turkish lira continued to decline slightly against the dollar during today’s trading, with trading continuing within a limited trading range. The pair is trading above the resistance line at 14.76 on the 240-minute time frame, shown on the provided chart. The pair also rose around the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.76 and 14.60 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.85 and 14.89, respectively. We expect the lira to decline, especially after breaching the shown support level, as it targets 15.00 levels in the medium term. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.