Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

– Risk 0.50%.

– None of the buying or selling transactions of yesterday were activated.

Best selling entry points

Entering a sell position with a pending order from 17.41 levels

– Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.

– Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

Entering a long position with a pending order from 17.00 . levels

– The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.88.

– Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.40

The Turkish lira stabilized without changes against the dollar, as the lira traded near its lowest level ever during the current year. The Turkish government seeks to control the declines of the lira. The Turkish government was expected to announce a measure known as the rediscount credit, which aims to facilitate borrowing for longer periods of up to 360 days and at lower interest for exporters committed to selling more foreign currencies, according to Bloomberg Agency. The new measures require exporters to increase sales of foreign currencies by 30 percent for trading books, with no purchases of those currencies for a month. The Turkish government is forced to take extraordinary measures due to the decline in the value of the country’s cash reserves, in addition to the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to rule out raising interest rates. This caused the lira to lose about 23 percent of its value this year.

On the technical front, the Turkish currency stabilized, falling against the dollar, to the highest levels of 17 during today’s trading, to trade without major changes since yesterday. The pair maintained its trading in a general bullish trend, as the pair continued trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 17.00 and 16.80 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.41 and 17.80, respectively. The level of 17.41 represents a strong resistance level. We expect the lira’s decline to continue, as every decline on the pair represents an opportunity to repurchase, especially if it crosses the mentioned resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

With the beginning of this important week’s trading, the price of the EUR/USD currency pair continues to maintain the recent rebound gains that pushed it towards the 1.0765 resistance level. The rebound gains were in the first place with momentum from the statements of the monetary policy officials of the European Central Bank led by Governor Lagarde. These statements said the bank is ready to move interest rates as soon as possible, as they set the July meeting to be the earliest date for that.

The gains of the euro-dollar pair stopped in recent sessions until it obtains additional strong momentum, as the US dollar still has strength factors that caused the currency pair to fall to its lowest level in five years. The measure of US inflation that the Federal Reserve closely follows rose 6.3% in April of the previous year, the first slowdown since November 2020 and a sign that higher prices may finally moderate, at least for now. The Commerce Department’s inflation figure on Friday was lower than a four-decade high of 6.6% set in March. While high inflation continues to cause hardships for millions of families, any slowdown in price increases, if it continues, will provide some modest relief.

The report also showed that consumer spending rose at a healthy annual rate of 0.9% from March to April, outpacing the monthly inflation rate for the fourth time in a row. The constant willingness of the country’s consumers to continue spending freely despite price inflation helps sustain the economy. However, all that spending helps keep prices high and could make the Fed’s goal of curbing inflation more difficult.

At the same time, consumers’ resilience in the face of sharply higher prices points to a recovery in economic growth in the current April-June quarter. The US economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the first quarter, mostly due to a widening trade deficit. But analysts now expect that, on an annual basis, it will grow by as much as 3% in the current quarter. Americans have been able to keep spending, despite rising inflation, due to rising wages, the buildup of savings stocks during the pandemic, and the boom in credit card use. So, economists say, these factors could boost spending and support the economy for most of this year.

For his part, US Central Bank Chairman Jerome Powell pledged to continue raising the main short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve until US inflation drops in a clear and convincing manner.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: On the daily chart, the recent gains of the EUR/USD pair, caused the direction of some technical indicators to move to the upside. It turned to the upside strongly, and the currency pair crossed the resistance levels of 1.0795 and the psychological top 1.1000, respectively. The EUR/USD currency pair is still at the beginning of breaking the descending channel and is currently in need of more momentum. I expect calm movements for the currency pair today due to the American holiday, which weakens liquidity and investors’ appetite for adventure.

On the downside, breaking the 1.0560 support level will end the current bullish expectations.

We expect the lira to decline as long as the pair does not break the bottom recorded during last week.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buy or sell orders were activated on Thursday’s recommendations.

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.62 . levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.86 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

The Turkish lira fell during the second trading day after the Turkish Central Bank’s decision to fix the interest rate last Thursday. This happened contrary to the desire of the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is following a new monetary policy, which includes lowering the interest rate. This is in order to attract real investments away from hot money that targets obtaining the largest financial return without realizing a real addition to the economy. It appears that the Turkish Central Bank’s decision is motivated by tightening monetary policy around the world. Where most central banks around the world raise interest rates or take steps towards reducing stimulus programs, it will push the Turkish Central Bank to fix the interest rate so as not to go against the global trend at the present time. In other decisions taken by the Turkish Central Bank this morning, the bank reduced the interest rate on the required reserves, denominated in lira, to zero percent.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira’s trading declined against the dollar with the beginning of the week’s trading, as the US dollar pair against the Turkish lira maintained trading within a narrow trading range. This is evident on the chart, as the pair settled within very limited ranges before moving relatively strongly before resuming stability within a limited range. The pair is currently trading below the descending trend line on the 240-minute time frame, shown on the chart. The pair also varied below the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, while it traded between the same averages on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.50 and 14.25 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.76 and 14.85, respectively. We expect the lira to decline as long as the pair does not break the bottom recorded during last week. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.