This is a market that is trying to form a bottoming pattern, but the financial conditions do not warrant this, so I think we are getting closer to the top than anything else.

The NASDAQ 100 Index rallied significantly Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points. That being said, traders are starting to look at this through the prism of a relief rally, and it’s also possible that traders are thinking that the Federal Reserve may not be as massively hawkish as thought. At this point, I think it’s probably a scenario where the market will probably start selling off again given enough time.

When I look at this chart, the most obvious area of resistance is the 13,000 level, and that’s an area that I think probably has a lot to do with where we defined the trend as going. The market has been extraordinarily noisy for a while, and while we did rally quite significantly, the reality is that the market is still coming from a point of extreme weakness. Yes, the buyers had their day, but that’s typically the case on Federal Reserve Day. Furthermore, what’s most likely to happen is that we will either sell off on Thursday or Friday because that’s what has been the case going back several meetings. There is a certain amount of hope that Jerome Powell will come into the picture and save everybody’s skin, which is what people have been conditioned to think.

However, what this sets up is a situation where the market will perhaps try to bounce a bit, but eventually will have to focus on the next economic numbers when it comes to inflation. If they continue to be very hot as far as inflation is concerned, then it’s likely that we would see further selling in this market.

The 12,250 level being broken to the downside could open up fresh selling, as it would be a bit of capitulation, which is something that the market will probably see sooner or later. However, if we can break above the 13,000 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the 13,500 level next and start to think about the idea of more of a “buy-and-hold” type of scenario. Ultimately, this is a market that is trying to form a bottoming pattern, but the financial conditions do not warrant this, so I think we are getting closer to the top than anything else.

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The British pound rallied significantly during the trading session on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points.The market is more or less going to continue to see the overall downtrend continue, due to the fact that the market has seen a line of negative pressure. The 50 Day EMA sits near the 1.22 level, which is an area that has been important multiple times. The market is likely to continue to see sellers come into this market as we have been so negative over the longer term.

Underneath, the 1.20 level underneath is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore we do see a little bit of market memory in that area, especially as we had previously seen the 1.20 level offer such resistance, as well as support. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to find one reason or another to sell off, not the least of which is the fact that although the Federal Reserve was seen as being dovish by the market, the reality is that the market always seems to get it wrong the first day. It’s more or less a relief rally at best.

If we can break above the 50 Day EMA, then the market could go to the 1.24 level. The 1.24 level is an area where we have seen noise out in the past as well, and I think it extends to the 1.25 level. Any signs of exhaustion in that area would also be a nice selling opportunity as well. Regardless, I think this is a market that you are looking for signs of exhaustion that you can get involved with. The candlestick for the trading session was rather impressive, but when you look at the big picture, it is likely that we will continue to see the overall economic uncertainty come into the picture and cause people to run to the US dollar yet again. The market has been a very messy place over the last couple of months, and the market should continue to be very much the same. At this point, the Federal Reserve will be data-dependent, and the date is going to look miserable when it comes to the inflation numbers as we have seen recently.

ETH/USD has been confronted by resistance which has proven durable since late last night, and key support levels are now in sights as values are tested.

ETH/USD is near the 3085.00 level as of this writing. The high for Ethereum touched the 3168.00 ratio yesterday, but then a noticeable amount of headwinds started to be seen in ETH/USD which sank the cryptocurrency to a low of nearly 3031.00. Yes, ETH/USD has climbed since hitting this lower value, but Ethereum remains within sight of support levels which may make some speculators nervous.

On the 3rd of April ETH/USD had climbed back to a rather healthy looking 3580.00 price, a value not seen since the first week of January 2022. However the past two and a half weeks of trading have proven difficult for Ethereum and the broad cryptocurrency market, as buyers have seemingly tapped on the brakes and a trend downward has once again been displayed.

A low of nearly 2880.00 was touched on the 18th of April, which is a juncture ETH/USD had not seen since the end of third week in March. Ethereum has climbed higher after hitting this low a few days ago, but traders with memories of the bearish trend, which has occurred in ETH/USD since November of 2021 are likely fearful that additional selling pressure may be demonstrated. Bullish speculators who believe ETH/USD has been oversold should watch current support near the 3056.00 mark, which is nearby. If this level becomes vulnerable it may not be a good short term signal.

The 3000.00 mark could prove to be significant in the near term. Any move below this value could set off alarm bells within skeptics who may believe another test to lows is going to be exhibited. The notion that Ethereum may have been part of a dead cat bounce within a long term bearish crypto market may gather more nervous sentiment. The 3000.00 value may prove to be a significant barometer of market psychology for crypto traders.

If ETH/USD can maintain its current price levels and produce buying action which sees the 3100.00 level toppled and sustained, this could spark the interest of buyers. Momentum trading in the near term may prove to be a solid tactic for both bullish and bearish traders as the broad cryptocurrency markets displays rather choppy results. Conditions the past handful of days highlight the need for cautious amounts of leverage to be used while wagering on ETH/USD. The use of take profit and stop loss orders should be practiced in order to insure reversals are not suffered for being too speculatively ambitious.

Ethereum Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 3107.00

Current Support: 3056.00

High Target: 3187.00

Low Target: 2953.00