We are about to set up for a big move.

The Monero market strengthened on Wednesday to break above the $200 level. The 200-day EMA is sitting just above, and it should offer a lot of resistance. At this point, the market is going to run into a little bit of trouble, so it would not be surprising at all to see a bit of a pullback.It could very well drop back down to the $180 level rather quickly. We are extended at this point, so we need to keep in mind that a pullback does make sense. Furthermore, it’s also worth looking at the market structure to make some decisions as well.

There is a lot of noise between here and $220, and it is set up as a perfect shorting opportunity. We do not have an exhaustion candle to jump on, so I may drill down to a shorter time frame. Monero has bucked the trend for most crypto markets, but in general, it should be noted that crypto is a complete disaster at this moment. If the US dollar starts to pick up strength, then it’s possible that we may see selling pressure based on that alone. Furthermore, if Bitcoin and other larger markets get sold into, Monero will more likely than not fall as well.

Based on Fibonacci studies, the idea is that if we exhaust momentum in this general vicinity, we could very well test the lows again. I think that is all but given if the Bitcoin market breaks down below $28,000, where we have been hanging on by a thread. Breaking down below there then will put a lot of fear into the crypto markets, and the smaller coins will get hurt.

On the other hand, if the Monero market breaks above the $225 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $290 level as a target. This would accompany Bitcoin rallying, as well as Ethereum in my estimation. As Monero has been so strong against the dollar over the last week or so, it’s also worth noting that it seems to be behaving much like the Australian dollar, for whatever that is worth. At this point, we are at a major inflection junction. That being said, we are about to set up for a big move.

I believe that the sellers are still firmly in control.

The Monero market initially rallied to reach the $180 level, where we have seen quite a bit of resistance previously, just as the area has been supportive. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of noise, especially as risk appetite has been all but eviscerated. It is interesting that we ended up giving back the gains we had, and in the way we had. After all, forming a shooting star after a short-term bounce suggests that we are going to have longer-term downward pressure.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Friday, it opens up the possibility of a move down to the $150 level. The $150 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that has seen a lot of action previously. If we break down below there, then Monero will start falling rapidly to reach the $120 level.

As with all altcoins, unless we get some type of risk appetite out there, it is difficult to imagine that Monero will make any real traction to the upside. That being said, you should keep an eye on the Federal Reserve and what is going to do about monetary policy. If it continues to remain very hawkish, risk appetite-based products like Monero will get smoked. After all, Monero has no real use at this moment, so any buying of this coin has simply been the “greater fool theory” played out.

If Monero were to break above the $180 level, that is possible that we could go looking to the 50-day EMA, perhaps even the $210 level. That being said, it seems very unlikely, especially after the day that we had on Friday. I think we have quite a bit further to go, so I will look at short-term rallies as a potential opportunity to start shorting. The Monero market has been sold off quite viciously over the last couple of months, so I think we have plenty of people out there looking to short going forward. Expect a lot of volatility, as the market will continue to get influenced by the trouble that the market seems to have in general when it comes to hanging onto risk appetite. Ultimately, I believe that the sellers are still firmly in control.

 

Fading rallies should continue to be the case.

Unlike most of the crypto market, Monero took off to the upside on Monday, gaining 15%. That being said, we still face a lot of resistance above, as the $180 level should continue to offer a bit of resistance. We did pull back from there, so it does suggest that perhaps this rally will be somewhat short-lived. After all, you need to keep in mind that Monero is a much smaller market than some of the others like Ethereum or Bitcoin, so a little bit of a volume surge could come into the picture.

Furthermore, you should also pay attention to the fact that the volume was lower than usual, meaning that the market was less liquid than usual. Ultimately, I think the market is one that you would continue to fade going forward on signs of exhaustion, with the $180 level being an obvious place where we have seen a lot of trouble. We have recently seen the 50-day EMA break below the 200-day EMA, forming the so-called “death cross.”

This is a market that will continue to follow the rest of crypto, although occasionally the lack of liquidity could make it change a bit. The candlestick is rather bullish, but it is probably only a matter of time before the massive selloff continues to attract resistance. The market had fallen apart quite drastically, and in a situation like this, it makes sense that we would see sellers come back in every time there is the slightest hint of trouble.

If the rest of crypto takes off, then it is possible that Monero might have an oversize move, but ultimately this is a situation where these altcoins will continue to be negative, at least until we see those bigger ones take off to the upside. The US dollar probably needs to stop as well, because as long as the US dollar continues to strengthen, it means that people are running away from risk, and you have to keep in mind that the price of Monero is quoted in those same US dollars, so the stronger that the greenback is, the less it will take to buy Monero. Fading rallies should continue to be the case.

Expect a lot of volatility, but there is really no way to buy this market anytime soon.

Monero has broken down rather significantly during the trading session on Thursday to reach all the way down to the $120 level. We have bounced from there, but quite frankly this is a market that has been negative for a reason, as Monero is pretty far out on the spectrum. Furthermore, as crypto is being shunned across the board, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where Monero suddenly is the Savior.

If we were to break down below the $120 level, then the market could collapse at that point, perhaps opening up a move down to the $100 level. The ferocity of the selloff does suggest that perhaps we are going to see a bit of a bounce, but I do not think it will last for any significant amount of time. In fact, I will be looking for some type of exhaustion after a bounce to get short again. The $150 level is perfect area to see this happen, so we will have to wait and see whether or not it actually gives us an exhaustion candle that we can take advantage of.

Even if we were to break above the $150 level, it is possible that we could go as high as the $175 level, which is the top of the Wednesday candlestick. The $180 level after that could offer significant resistance as well. It is not until we break above that level that I would be convinced that Monero is going to be going anywhere. Keep in mind that the US dollar is what the coin is quoted in, and the US dollar is like a wrecking ball at the moment. It is nowhere near rolling over, so therefore it is difficult to imagine most things being able to fight against the strength of the greenback, but there may be a little bit of profit-taking from short-sellers in markets like this.

Expect a lot of volatility, but there is really no way to buy this market anytime soon. I would be patient, and perhaps even wait until we get through the weekend to start shorting but it would take something miraculous to make this market something that I will be willing to buy. I know that some traders try to get cute with short-term charts and play the potential bounce. That is a recipe for disaster in a market like this.

At this point, the market is likely to continue its downward trajectory.

Monero got eviscerated on Monday to show signs of extreme weakness, as the 50-day EMA has offered a bit too much in the way of resistance. Further backing up the 50-day EMA is also the 200-day EMA, both going sideways and showing signs of hesitation. At this point, the market forming the big red candlestick that we have suggests that we are going to continue to go lower.

It should be noted that Bitcoin got hammered, and this has a major knock-on effect when it comes to smaller coins like Monero. The crypto markets in general are in a lot of trouble, and with the strengthening US dollar, we will likely continue to see this happen. The pair of course is quoted in US dollars, so as the US dollar gets stronger, it will take less of them to buy one unit of Monero. Monero and other smaller coins like this have no real shot at appreciating until Bitcoin and Ethereum can turn it around. As things stand right now, they look like they are ready to fall further, which will translate into lower altcoin pricing.

It also is worth noting that the $220 level has offered quite a bit of resistance, as there has been a lot of noise in that general vicinity. If we can break above there, then we may go much higher, but that would take a Herculean effort and exterior influence from Bitcoin. It probably is going to take a couple of good days for the larger coins to make this thing turn around because people will have to feel comfortable stepping further out into the risk spectrum. Monero is pretty far out there, so we would need to see a lot of money come into the crypto markets to think that Monero will pick up.

If we break down below the $180 level, it is likely that we will go looking to reach the $150 level. At this point, the market is likely to continue its downward trajectory, and I think if there is any type of rally, it will more than likely show signs of exhaustion that you can start shorting again. If you are a longer-term believer in Monero, you probably have an opportunity to pick it up at much lower prices.

At this point, if you are a longer-term investor, a dip might offer a chance to build a position, but that is about as aggressive as I get.

Monero has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday as we await the FOMC statement. True, Monero itself is not necessarily driven by the FOMC statement and the Federal Reserve monetary policy, but markets, in general, are paying attention to what the Federal Reserve is going to do because it has a lot to do with what the liquidity situation will be. Remember, Monero is pretty far out on the risk spectrum, as is most crypto.

At this point, Bitcoin does look like it is trying to stabilize so that might help other smaller coins such as Monero, but it is also worth knowing that Monero is sitting just below the 50 Day EMA, as well as the 200 Day EMA. Furthermore, it looks as if there is a lot of resistance near the $235 level just above there. Underneath, the $200 level has offered a little bit of support, but quite frankly I think that is more or less going to be of the psychological variety. A lot of what happens next will come down to risk appetite in markets overall and unfortunately will probably have very little to do with Monero itself.

A breakdown below the $200 level opens up the $180 level for a target, which has been both support and resistance a couple of times in the past. After that, Monero could find itself falling all the way down to the $150 level. This will probably be a result of Bitcoin and Ethereum both falling, which tend to drag the rest of the market down with it when it has a rough patch. A very tight and hawkish Federal Reserve will almost certainly have that effect on crypto because it would have money running towards the US dollar even further than it has previously. If that is the case, crypto in general will get crushed, and the smaller coins will take the brunt of the damage.

On the other hand, if Jerome Powell does start to walk back some of the hawkish behavior, then it is possible that the markets may start to look to altcoins such as Monero, but I think that would probably be jumping the gun. We need to see Bitcoin break significantly above $40,000 before that is a real possibility. At this point, if you are a longer-term investor, a dip might offer a chance to build a position, but that is about as aggressive as I get.

Building a position slowly will probably work out best, as we continue to see a lot of volatility and fear not only in the Monero market, but pretty much anything that is further out on the risk spectrum.

The Monero market fell hard on Tuesday to show further weakness. The $240 level continues to be an area of interest, as it was previous resistance. Now it is offering support, and it is worth noting that the Monday candlestick was a bit of a hammer. Now that we are testing the bottom of it, it looks like we could threaten a serious breakdown. Having said that, we also have just recently had the so-called “golden cross”, which is when the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA.

The market could very well break down below the $240 level, which would not be a huge surprise considering that Monero is a minor coin. Furthermore, as long as Bitcoin and Ethereum struggle, it is difficult for smaller markets like this to have any real traction. I think at this point in time it is likely that we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, so you are going to have to be very cautious about your position sizing. I think given enough time we will probably have some type of resolution, but right now crypto does not look very good. With that in mind, I do not expect Monero to be any different than the others.

On the upside, the $280 level has been a bit of resistance, which is a significant resistance barrier going back multiple years. I think dips at this point could be supported at the $215 level, right along with the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators that are sitting there. With this being the case, you need to wait to see whether or not we get a bit of a bounce in order to get involved again. I do not necessarily think you should short this market here, just that it does not necessarily look like it is going to take off all of the sudden either.

A bit of patience would have a lot to do with being successful in this scenario, which is something that you need to pay close attention to. Building a position slowly will probably work out best, as we continue to see a lot of volatility and fear not only in the Monero market, but pretty much anything that is further out on the risk spectrum.

This is a market that will continue to find plenty of buyers every time we pull back at this point.

Monero has broken higher during the trading session on Monday, as Monero continues to buck the overall trend. While most of the crypto markets have been struggling to bit, Monero has rallied quite significantly. The candlestick reached the $260 level before pulling back a bit. That does make a certain amount of sense that we would see after a move like this, but the $240 level underneath could be a bit of support.

The candlestick for the trading session on Monday had a larger range than most of the candlesticks before them, so I do think it suggests that we are going to do everything we can to continue going higher. With this being the case, the dips are thought of as buying opportunities, with the $240 level being an obvious start. After that, the market then has to pay close it takes into the $210 level, right where the 200 Day EMA is currently trading.

On the upside, if we were to break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, then it is likely that we go looking to the $280 level, maybe even the $300 level after that. This is a market that I think will continue to find plenty of buyers every time we pull back at this point.

It is not until we break down below the $210 level that I would consider selling Monero, especially if Bitcoin and Ethereum are both selling off. At that point, the market is very likely to see an overall selloff in most crypto markets. That would be especially interesting here, due to the Monero market being different than some of the other markets.

The Monero market has been rallying quite significantly after forming that massive “double bottom” at the $150 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course, an area that has offered quite a bit of trading action in both directions. Regardless, this is a market that I think continues to find plenty of buyers on dips, and I will look at this as a market in which you need to find opportunities and signs of support to get involved. Ultimately, the 50 Day EMA is also getting rather close to the 200 Day EMA, perhaps getting ready to form the so-called “golden cross”.

Another part of the market to pay close attention to is what the US dollar is doing, because Monero is priced in those same US dollars.

Monero rallied Tuesday to show signs of life again, threatening the $240 area. This is an area that has been resistant more than once, so it does make sense that we would continue to pay close attention to it. Furthermore, we recently broke above the $210 level, and now the 200-day EMA sits there. In other words, it is very likely that we will continue to see a lot of support just below. In fact, I think that support might run all the way down to the 50-day EMA, and it is worth noting that Monero seems to be doing much better than many of the other major coins.

Take Bitcoin for example. It did nothing during the day on Tuesday, but you can say that Monero at least try to break out to the upside, and the fact that we had done it during the previous session shows that either this is an area where we are going to see a massive amount of selling pressure, or we will eventually watch the resistance give way, and we will go much higher. In other words, the next couple of days could determine where Monero goes over the next several weeks.

A break above the highs of the last couple of days could open up the possibility of Monero going to the $250 level, maybe even as high as the $300 level over the longer term. If we can get Bitcoin to turn things around and show signs of life again, that could also add more momentum to this market as Bitcoin can most certainly push the rest of the crypto markets around. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50-day EMA, is likely that Monero could go looking to reach the $180 level, which was the previous support and resistance level that had been so clear on the charts.

Another part of the market to pay close attention to is what the US dollar is doing, because Monero is priced in those same US dollars. If we continue to see a lot of strength in the greenback, that could make this market a bit sluggish. On the other hand, if the US dollar falls apart, that could send Monero quite a bit higher.

If you see the bigger markets pick up, then Monero might be a nice way to pick up a bit of momentum in the crypto markets.

Monero pulled back on Wednesday to test the 200-day EMA yet again, which sits at the $210 level. That is an area that the market has respected previously, so it is worth noting that we have handled that area as an area that is important. The 50-day EMA is starting to rally from here and reach towards the upside, perhaps offering a potential “golden cross” in the future.

Monero is a market that continues to see upward pressure overall, but the last couple of weeks have been more sideways than anything else, after a huge push higher. That can be said for crypto in general, but with Bitcoin falling at this point, it suggests that perhaps we are running out of momentum, and therefore we need to pay special attention to the 200-day EMA in Monero to see whether or not we are ready to continue going higher, or if we need to pull back and test the 50-day EMA.

Looking at the Monero market, you can see that we have formed a massive bottoming pattern and may have even hit the potential “measured move” of the W pattern underneath. I think at this point a pullback does not necessarily mean that bad things have to happen next, just that we may be able to find value at lower levels. It is also worth noting that the W pattern in the Monero market looks very similar to the Bitcoin market, so I think at this point time you can probably superimpose one chart over another.

If the market was to break above the $230 level, then it is likely that the Monero markets will go looking to the $250 level next. We have obviously been very bullish, and are likely to see consolidation, statistically speaking. However, there are a lot of crosswinds out there that could come into the picture, not the least of which would be risk appetite. Remember that Monero is far out on the risk spectrum, as money tends to flow to the bigger crypto markets first, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. If you see the bigger markets pick up, then Monero might be a nice way to pick up a bit of momentum in the crypto markets.