AVAX/USD was able to produce some gains over the weekend, but in early trading today has reversed slightly lower as fragile trading conditions prevail.

AVAX/USD is trading within the lower part of its long term range, but unlike many of its major counterparts Avalanche has not slumped to lower values that it traded in July of 2021. Yes, AVAX/USD has certainly lost plenty of value. On the 1^st of April Avalanche was trading above the 100.00000000 juncture. On the 12^th of May AVAX/USD approached the 22.00000000 level as nervous sentiment turned into widespread panic as the broad cryptocurrency market suffered a sea of losses last week.

However, on the 20^th of July 2021 AVAX/USD was trading slightly below 10.00000000. Yes, Avalanche was a relatively new cryptocurrency in the spring of last year and was enjoying plenty of attention from influencers who helped talk Avalanche higher. On the 10^th of February 2021, AVAX/USD was trading near the 55.00000000 mark. The broad cryptocurrency market remains extremely volatile and Avalanche is part of the nervous pack.

Even though there has been a slight recovery among most of the major cryptocurrencies, the word ‘slight’ is highlighted.  Technical traders may be eyeing the current price of AVAX/USD and believe it has been vastly oversold and in the future long-term they may be proven correct. However, for day traders who witnessed last week’s bloodbath, caution may be an instinctive survival mode. Conservative wagers should be considered by speculators in the immediate days ahead.

If AVAX/USD can sustain its current price above the 34.00000000 mark and challenge the 35.00000000 ratio, this may attract short term traders who believe a push higher towards the 36.00000000 ratio can be demonstrated quickly.  Trading conditions will remain volatile today and in the near term, nervous market conditions will likely continue to be seen as speculative forces try to establish equilibrium in the financial markets.

Unfortunately the past couple of weeks of trading have displayed few signs of a tranquil market place. Momentum traders may be looking at AVAX/USD and believe it has further room to roam downward. If short term anxiety suddenly becomes more pronounced and nervous trading hits the broad digital asset sphere, Avalanche could certainly see its bearish trend flourish again.

If support levels which are nearby around the 33.5000000 begin to see a challenge and the 33.00000000 ratio falters, this could be a negative signal and selling could become stronger. Any move back below the 30.00000000 juncture for AVAX/USD could spur on another wave of aggressive selling if holders of Avalanche lose additional confidence in the cryptocurrency.

Avalanche Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 35.39000000

Current Support: 33.25000000

High Target: 38.87000000

Low Target: 27.06000000

For the second week in a row, the price of the EUR/USD currency pair is moving in narrow ranges. This  vicinity warns technically of an upcoming strong move, as the markets absorbed what was announced to raise US interest rates at the largest pace since 2000. The US jobs numbers were announced and today the important US inflation numbers will be announced as well. Euro-dollar losses brought it to the level of 1.0470, the lowest in five years, and attempts to rebound higher did not exceed the 1.0630 level during that period. It is settling around the 1.0526 level at the time of writing the analysis.

The Federal Reserve has said that Russia’s war in Ukraine and rising inflation are now the biggest threats to the global financial system, replacing the coronavirus pandemic. The notes came in the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report, which looks at trading and investment trends as well as general economic issues. The report is not an economic forecast, nor does it attempt to predict the following risks to the financial system. It highlights areas of interest to central bankers.

The Fed added that economic uncertainty has increased since the bank’s previous report, with the Ukraine war being a large part of the deterioration. The bank also highlighted significant fluctuations in asset prices – from Treasuries to stocks – as investors reassess risks in a high-inflation environment. “Inflation was higher and more stable than expected, even before the invasion of Ukraine, and uncertainty about inflation expectations poses risks to financial conditions and economic activity,” the Fed added in its report.

The Fed said persistently high inflation could require central banks to raise interest rates quickly, which could also be a potential risk of financial instability in the form of lower economic output as well as higher borrowing costs for individuals and businesses. This could cause debt levels, which the Fed says are high but not yet a major concern, to become unsustainable for some companies.

The US central bank also said, “More negative surprises in inflation and interest rates, especially if accompanied by a decline in economic activity, could negatively affect the financial system.” For individuals, inflation could cause job losses as the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, which could also affect the housing market through higher mortgage rates, the bank said.

The report reflects the Fed’s thinking, its conclusions may be part of the background when the central bank conducts annual stress tests of the nation’s largest banks in the coming weeks. The Federal Reserve has used previous reports to highlight the pandemic as well as last year’s interest in “meme” stocks such as GameStop and AMC Entertainment.

In a statement, Fed Governor Lyle Brainard also cited recent volatility in commodity markets as a place for potential risks. While volatility in the energy market has grabbed the headlines for several weeks now, there have been other commodity markets — particularly those for industrial metals such as nickel, zinc, and lithium — that have seen significant swings.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: Ahead of the announcement of US inflation figures, which affect the course of global financial markets. There is no change in my technical view for the price performance of the EUR/USD currency pair, as the general trend is still bearish. A breach of the 1.0500 support will increase the bears’ control over the trend, thus moving towards stronger support levels and the closest ones after that are 1.0435 and 1.0300, respectively. As I mentioned before, continuing weaknesses – divergence in economic performance, the future of central bank policy tightening and the Russo-Ukrainian war – support the current trend. On the upside, without breaching the resistance levels 1.0795 and 1.1000, the general trend for EUR/USD will remain bearish.

LUNA/USD has demonstrated considerable volatility the past five days of trading as it has tested short term lows, erupted higher and then reversed lower again.

LUNA/USD is trading near the 89.7000000 mark as of this writing and is delivering speculators with plenty of trading opportunities as it moves fast and produces rapid changes in value. On the 25^th of April, LUNA/USD was near the 97.50000000 mark, but one day later Terra fell from a seemingly comfortable value above 96.00000000 to nearly 86.90000000 in a handful of hours.

The drop of more than 10% in value in such a short duration certainly caused some speculators pain, while others no doubt profited if they were short sellers at that time. Speculators have a dangerous decision to make now regarding their perceptions on the direction of LUNA/USD. It will be important for traders to use their risk taking tactics wisely. LUNA/USD is near important support, but still maintains a rather attractive price range compared to many of its major cryptocurrency counterparts.

Interestingly, the fall to nearly 86.90000000 on the 26^th of April did not come close to the one month low via technical charts.  A price of nearly 76.00000000 was tested on the 18^th of April; this price was a retest of lows seen in the first week of March. LUNA/USD while correlating to the broad marketplace; is actually still perhaps an outlier and speculators should be cautious with Terra based on this notion.

LUNA/USD can move fast and if support levels near 89.00000000 fail to hold and are proven vulnerable, a quick test of the 88.7500000 to 88.50000000 ratios could be seen.  If short term selling were to build momentum and the 87.00000000 mark were challenged than additional nervous sentiment could develop in LUNA/USD, particularly if long term holders of Terra decide they should cash in some of the profits they have made.

While the broad cryptocurrency market continues to reflect nervousness, LUNA/USD may find itself reacting to this overall weak behavioral sentiment abruptly. The thought of selling LUNA/USD may not appeal to its speculators over the mid-term, but consideration of short and near term prices may be more important for day traders who have enough courage to short Terra.

If LUNA/USD actually climbs and begins to test the 90.00000000 mark in the short term, then it is also logical short term traders may search for quick hitting profits upwards. LUNA/USD has delivered swift results the past week and traders should be extra cautious within its choppy waters.

Terra Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 90.55000000

Current Support: 88.74000000

High Target: 94.9800000

Low Target: 84.93000000

The pair will likely have a bearish breakout as bears target the next key support at 1.2950.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.3000 and a take-profit at 1.2900.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.3060.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.3025 and a take-profit at 1.3100.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2950.

The GBP/USD price remained close to its lowest level this month as the strength of the US dollar continued. The pair is trading at 1.300, which was slightly above last week’s low at 1.2976. It has dropped by almost 1% from its highest level this month.

US Bond Yields

The GBP/USD pair is trading close to its lowest level this month as investors focus on the bond market. US bond yields continued rising as the bank earnings season continued. Last week, JP Morgan, the biggest bank in the US published weak results as its investment banking division deteriorated. On Monday, Bank of America published modest results as its net interest margin expanded.

The yields of the 10-, 5-year, and 2-year all rose to the highest levels as investors predicted that the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in the coming months.

These results came as signs emerged that the Chinese economy was starting to slow. Data published on Monday revealed that the economy had a stronger-than-expected first quarter. It expanded by 1.3% in Q1, which was better than the expected. The economy also expanded by 4.8% on a year-on-year basis.

However, with the country maintaining its Covid zero strategy, there are signs that the economy is slowing, Retail sales declined by 3.5% in March after rising by 6.7%. This decline was worse than the median target of -1.6%. Other sectors of the economy are also showing signs of slowing down.

The economic calendar will have no events from the UK on Tuesday. The only important data will be the latest US building permits and housing starts. Economist expect the data to show that the two numbers declined slightly in March as the cost of homes rose.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair has been in a downward trend in the past few weeks. The pair is hovering slightly above the key support at 1.3000. It is also trading at the same point as the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also dropped slightly below the Ichimoku cloud, which is also a bearish sign.

Therefore, the pair will likely have a bearish breakout as bears target the next key support at 1.2950. A move above the resistance at 1.3050 will invalidate this view.