Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s buy trade was activated, and half of the contracts were closed with the price rising towards the target and providing a stop loss point.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish lira

The price of the lira stabilized during today’s trading at the same levels as yesterday, after a repeated rise of the lira against the dollar, before losing those gains. The strong movement that the pair records repeatedly is reflected in an intervention by the Central Bank of Turkey in the market, which aims to stabilize the lira and prevent further losses. It does not seem that the economic conditions in the country are encouraging to record any kind of improvement in the price of the lira, with mounting criticism of the monetary policy pursued by the Turkish Central Bank. The latest criticism was from the head of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry, who said that the Turkish Central Bank severely restricts the credit granted to companies that are not even classified as major exporting companies. Analysts attributed this restriction to the decline in the size of the financial reserve of foreign currencies, which suffers from a lack of tools available to it to add any solutions to control the decline of the lira, especially in light of the high inflation, and adherence to a stimulus monetary policy.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira against the US dollar followed the same trading pattern that the pair has been following since last week. The lira stabilized at the peak recorded during the current year, after a temporary decline during yesterday’s trading. The intervention of the Turkish Central Bank in the strong movements of the pair appears on the pullbacks shown on the chart, before the pair’s rise returns. The pair is trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200 respectively on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the bullish trend on the medium term. The pair is also trading above the rising trend line on the four-hour time frame, shown on the chart, at the same time, the pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 17.80 and 17.70 levels, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.32, respectively. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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Our expectations still suggest a rise in natural gas during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -0.90%. It settled at the price of $6.753 per million British thermal units, after falling slightly during yesterday’s trading by – 0.15%.

Natural gas futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, as the Nymex gas contract for July settled at $6.858 per million British thermal units, up 5 cents from the day. The August futures contract rose by 8.9 cents to $6.872.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg spot gas prices were mostly trading higher, given record-high temperatures across much of the US and strong demand for cooling capacity.

With demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) already hampered by the outage at the Freeport terminal, an additional drop in feed gas deliveries helped pull futures lower early Wednesday. Some analysts have indicated that gas shipments to US LNG facilities have fallen to about 10.5 billion cubic feet. However, data tracking US LNG exports from NGI indicated a recovery in feed gas volumes, to around 11.2 billion cubic feet.

The market should get a reading of the weekly inventory data when it is released from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in order to learn about the effects of the Freeport explosion and the subsequent outage of storage.

Prior to the latest inventory data, Reuters polled 13 analysts whose estimates ranged with storage injections ranging from 56 billion cubic feet to 76 billion cubic feet, resulting in an average increase of 66 billion cubic feet. A Bloomberg survey showed lower average stocks of 59 billion cubic feet, although the range of estimates was the same. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal poll had a narrower forecast range, averaging 66 billion cubic feet.

Technically, the price continues to correct the main bullish trend in the short term, amid its trading along a major bullish slope line in the medium term. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the start of positive signs from the relative strength indicators, after it reached oversaturated areas with operations selling. The negative pressure of the previous 50-day SMA remains preventing the commodity from rising.

Therefore, our expectations still suggest a rise in natural gas during its upcoming trading, provided that the support level 6.412 remains intact, to target the first resistance levels at 7.368.

In general, I believe that the next couple of days could be very noisy, but eventually we will get clarity.

The gold markets initially fell on Friday but then turned around to show signs of life. The jobs number has obviously moved the markets back and forth, but at the end of the day we did not change much. The 200-day EMA underneath is sitting just above the $1850 level. Just above, we have the 50-day EMA near the $1913 level and curling lower. The $1900 level seems to be a bit of a magnet at this point in time.

The market dancing around between these two moving averages does make a certain amount of inertia appear, and it is only a matter of time before we have an even bigger move. Once we break out of this area, it is likely that we would see a substantial move. If we were to break down below the 200-day EMA on a daily close, then it is very possible that we could go down to the $1800 level. The $1800 level is an area that has seen a lot of support, so I would anticipate that there would be a certain amount of buying in that area if we do break down.

On the upside, if we were to break above the 50-day EMA, then it is likely that the market would go reaching to the $1970 level, possibly even the $2000 level. Obviously, there is a lot of noise between here and there so I do not think it would necessarily be a straight shot. Because of this, the market is likely to zigzag all the way higher, but anything is possible at this point.

Pay close attention to the interest rates in the United States, specifically the yield on the 10-year bond. As it continues to rise, it does work against the value of gold at times, as does a strengthening US dollar. (Quite often these two are the same thing.) Nonetheless, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of volatility, but once we break out of this range, it will probably become quite a bit more aggressive in either buying or selling the gold market. In general, I believe that the next couple of days could be very noisy, but eventually we will get clarity.

For more than a month, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair has been moving in a strong uptrend range amid a strong investor abandonment of the Japanese yen. This is one of the most prominent safe havens for investors in times of uncertainty and was supposed to make solid gains as the Russian/Ukrainian war continues. Investors balanced between the future of the US Federal Reserve policy, amid a distinguished performance of the US economy, and the lax policy of the Japanese central bank and the continued provision of stimulus to the Japanese economy in the face of the effects of the epidemic and, most recently, the Russian war.

The gains of the dollar-yen pair reached the resistance level of 126.68, the highest in 20 years, and settled around the 126.30 level at the beginning of this week’s trading. This stimulated the bulls and expectations for the future to move towards the next historical psychological resistance 130.00 if the currency pair’s gains factors continued and profit-taking did not start.

The US dollar is still reaping gains, with expectations of more US interest rate hikes during 2022 to face the fiercest levels of inflation in the country in 40 years. On the other hand, pressure on the Bank of Japan comes from two sources. First, the rise in global rates has pushed the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to nearly 0.25% yield curve control ceiling. There is something to be said for the IMF’s advice to target a shorter maturity period.

Secondly, the general inflation rate in Japan was on the rise, but the main reason for this was food and fresh energy. In March 2021, the annual rate of the headline CPI was -0.4%. It is expected to rise to 1.0% in March 2022 when it is announced this weekend. A year ago, if food and fresh energy were excluded, the Japanese CPI was flat. Last month, it was expected to be at -0.8%. Starting with the April report, the base rate will rise. Moreover, it will turn positive with lower prices for wireless services last year compared to the 12-month comparison. As a result, real interest rates will fall even more.

It is common for observers to argue about the race to rock bottom, as everyone is looking for weaker coins, however this is not true. What is true is that central banks usually want the currency to be consistent with the direction of their monetary policy. A strong currency could dampen efforts to ease financial conditions, for example. Likewise, currency weakness when financial conditions tighten is counterproductive.

Companies don’t always want a weaker exchange rate. Let’s take Japan, for example. The Japanese yen fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 20 years. A recent Reuters poll showed that three-quarters of Japanese companies say a weak yen is hurting their businesses. A common fear is that the depreciation of the yen will weaken consumption and capital investment. Almost half believe that exchange rate developments will undermine profits, more than a third said they will harm profits “to some extent”, and one-eighth said the impact will be “significant”.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Near term and hourly performance, USD/JPY appears to have pulled back recently to complete the channel breakout before assuming a sideways trend formation. This indicates a reversal of the uptrend in the market. Therefore, the bears will target short-term profits at around 125.95 or lower at 125.50. The bulls are looking to resume the upside by targeting profits at around 126.70 or higher at 127.00.

In the long term and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the USD/JPY is trading within the formation of a sharply bullish channel. This indicates a strong long-term bullish momentum in the market sentiment. Therefore, the bulls will target long-term profits at around 127.94 or higher at the next psychological resistance of 130.00. On the other hand, the bears will target potential pullback profits at around 124.09 or lower at 121.56 support.