Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buy or sell transactions of yesterday were activated

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

USD/TRY Technical Analysis

The lira stabilized without changes in the price of the USD/TRY currency pair as the pair is trading within a very narrow range. This is amid the absence of influential data from inside Turkey during the day, as well as the clear interference by the Central Bank of Turkey to control the price of the dollar against the lira. Investors followed reports on the Russian-Turkish consensus on the adoption of the local currency in the trade exchange between the two countries. The two sides agreed to pay part of Turkey’s natural gas imports in Russian rubles, which may contradict a series of Western sanctions against Moscow. In the same context, a report from the American Newsweek magazine stated that the percentage of Turkish real estate sales to Russian citizens increased during the current year, so that the Russians topped the purchases of real estate in Turkey before the Iranians and Iraqis. It is noting the lack of significant economic impact, especially amid the country’s suffering of inflation levels that have not been recorded for nearly 25 years.

The economic situation is not expected to improve significantly in light of the Turkish Central Bank’s adherence to a stimulus policy in exchange for monetary tightening in the United States, which raises the value of the dollar.

Turkish Lira Technical Analysis

The US dollar against the Turkish lira settled within the same narrow trading range shown on the chart. The pair traded the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at the levels of 17.85 and 17.75, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. The pair is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair is heading in an overall bullish trend. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

Ready to trade our free Forex signals? Here are the best Forex brokers to choose from.

For four trading sessions in a row, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair is settling in a narrow range between the support level of 131.73 and the resistance level of 133.90. It settled around the level of 133.11 at the time of writing the analysis. The currency pair may remain moving in a narrow range until the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week. The importance of the minutes is due to the fact that the markets and investors derive from it the date and amount of raising US interest rates in the coming months.

Dollar-Yen Economic Outlook

A measure of manufacturing health in the United States recorded its second largest decline ever, in a sign of the continued slowdown in American activity. However, the scale of the collapse has led some economists to question the outcome. The New York Empire State Headline Index for August read -31.30. The market was looking for a slowdown from 11.10 to 5.50 June.

The market slump is the second largest drop in the survey going back to 2001.

The US has recorded two consecutive quarters of growth, thus meeting the common definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research which tells the US government’s reading of the state of the economy says those benchmarks are too simplistic and should still call a recession.

Pantheon Macroeconomics says the result means other regional surveys will be watched with increased interest in the wake of the New York shock. The survey also offered some optimism, particularly regarding inflation. The price-paid component fell by 8.8 points, thanks in large part to lower oil prices.

Inflation expectations are very important to the outlook for the US economy, Fed policy and the outlook for the US dollar. Indeed, there were hopes that the US economy had experienced peak inflation with the July key rate rising 8.5% in the year to July, dropping to less than 9.1% in June and consensus forecast for a reading of 8.7%. Core US CPI rose 5.9% in the year to July, unchanged in June, but less than the 6.1% consensus was looking for. The US dollar fell as investors bet that peak inflation might be over, thus reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to pursue a strict policy of raising interest rates.

In the event that peak inflation is indeed surpassed, the assumption that the Fed will slow will persist, making it difficult for the dollar to push towards new highs.

Dollar against Japanese Yen Forecast

There is no change in my technical view for the performance of the USD/JPY currency pair on the daily chart.

• The currency pair is in a relatively neutral performance, and the bias will be bullish if it returns to move towards the resistance levels 134.20 and 135.00, respectively. 
• The dollar-yen pair’s move towards the support level 131.55 will have a strong impetus to retreat to the vicinity of the psychological support 130.00.
• The currency pair will be affected today by the announcement of housing and industrial production data in the United States.

Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex brokers to check out.

We expect the price to decline from the current levels before rising again.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy trade of the day’s recommendation has been activated and is still trading

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels 17.45
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 16.63 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.28.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 16.99

The Turkish lira’s movements have stabilized after strong movements since the end of last week, as government decisions were issued aimed at preventing lending to Turkish companies that have a certain amount of cash, which is equivalent to 15 million liras. As these decisions contributed to raising the price of the lira against the dollar by about 5 percent over several days, before the lira began to lose its gains after reports from Western banks showing the extent of the damage that could befall the Turkish economy as a result of these decisions, especially with the damage that will occur. Meanwhile, a report published by Reuters today showed that the head of the country’s insurance group discussed the issuance of inflation-linked bonds with the Turkish Treasury. The country is facing the largest rate of inflation recorded in nearly a quarter of a century, especially with the rise in energy imports.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira stabilized against the US dollar, as the pair returned to trading in a narrow range. At the same time, the pair settled above the support levels that are concentrated at 16.48 and 16.25 levels, respectively. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.77 and 17.10, respectively. The pair also traded between the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a short-term divergence. While the pair continues trading above the moving average 50 on the time frame of the day. At the same time, the pair is trading at strong resistance levels represented by 50 Fibonacci levels on the descending wave that started from 06-24-2022 until the top recorded on 06-27-2022. We expect the price to decline from the current levels before rising again from the levels specified in the recommendation. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Our expectations still suggest a rise in natural gas during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -0.90%. It settled at the price of $6.753 per million British thermal units, after falling slightly during yesterday’s trading by – 0.15%.

Natural gas futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, as the Nymex gas contract for July settled at $6.858 per million British thermal units, up 5 cents from the day. The August futures contract rose by 8.9 cents to $6.872.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg spot gas prices were mostly trading higher, given record-high temperatures across much of the US and strong demand for cooling capacity.

With demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) already hampered by the outage at the Freeport terminal, an additional drop in feed gas deliveries helped pull futures lower early Wednesday. Some analysts have indicated that gas shipments to US LNG facilities have fallen to about 10.5 billion cubic feet. However, data tracking US LNG exports from NGI indicated a recovery in feed gas volumes, to around 11.2 billion cubic feet.

The market should get a reading of the weekly inventory data when it is released from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in order to learn about the effects of the Freeport explosion and the subsequent outage of storage.

Prior to the latest inventory data, Reuters polled 13 analysts whose estimates ranged with storage injections ranging from 56 billion cubic feet to 76 billion cubic feet, resulting in an average increase of 66 billion cubic feet. A Bloomberg survey showed lower average stocks of 59 billion cubic feet, although the range of estimates was the same. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal poll had a narrower forecast range, averaging 66 billion cubic feet.

Technically, the price continues to correct the main bullish trend in the short term, amid its trading along a major bullish slope line in the medium term. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the start of positive signs from the relative strength indicators, after it reached oversaturated areas with operations selling. The negative pressure of the previous 50-day SMA remains preventing the commodity from rising.

Therefore, our expectations still suggest a rise in natural gas during its upcoming trading, provided that the support level 6.412 remains intact, to target the first resistance levels at 7.368.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

– Risk 0.50%.

– None of the buying or selling transactions of yesterday were activated.

Best selling entry points

Entering a sell position with a pending order from 17.41 levels

– Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.

– Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

– Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

Entering a buy position with a pending order from 17.00 مستويات levels

– The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.88.

– Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.

Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 17.40

The Turkish lira stabilized at the same limits for the second week in a row. Investors followed the announcement of the official agency in Turkey that the government submitted a proposal to Parliament to approve a supplementary budget approaching $58 billion. By approving this budget, the government aims to control high inflation and support energy prices. Expectations indicate that the subsidy of energy imports, which is primarily responsible for the rise in inflation, will reach about 300 billion Turkish liras. The local currency was subjected to unprecedented pressure due to the war in Ukraine, which directly affected the revenues of the Turkish economy from tourism, in addition to the rise in energy costs, as Turkey imports most of its energy needs. In this context, the Turkish president stated, “Significant price hikes occurred in general as a result of economic and geopolitical developments around the world and in our country, and therefore there was a need to increase budget payments.”

On the technical level, the Turkish currency has been stable. The pair traded the US dollar against the lira within a narrow range, which is shown on the chart. The pair maintained its trading in a general bullish trend between levels of 17.19 and 17.33 pounds, with the pair trading the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 17.00 and 16.80 levels, respectively. The pair also continued trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, while the price traded between the same averages on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a divergence in the short term. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 17.40 and 17.80, respectively. The level of 17.41 represents a strong resistance level.

We expect the lira’s decline to continue, as every decline on the pair represents an opportunity to repurchase, especially if it crosses the mentioned resistance levels. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Your sale deal was made last Thursday and it is still in circulation

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.62 . levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.99 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

The Turkish lira continued its stability within a narrow trading range. The Turkish government seeks to increase its import of foreign exchange. Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to attract more investments. It is the second visit of the Turkish President to a Gulf country with which the relationship was marked by political tensions after a previous visit to the United Arab Emirates. In the meantime, he revealed reports that a plan was prepared by the Turkish Central Bank aimed at attracting inflows of hard currency by providing loans in lira without collecting interest on them for each foreign investor who deposits dollars in Turkish banks for a period of two years, provided that he receives in return an estimated return of about 4 percent. It is a plan that reveals the increased demand for the dollar.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell against the dollar, as it continued to decline slightly during today’s trading. The lira is trading the highest demand areas shown on the chart. The pair also rose around the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the pair is based on the ascending trend line shown on the chart. There is continued trading within a limited trading range. The pair is trading above the resistance line at 14.76 on the 240-minute time frame, shown on the provided chart. The pair is trading the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at 14.75 and 14.64 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.89 and 14.99, respectively. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

We expect the lira to decline after retesting the broken descending trend line during the end of last week.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buying or selling deals took place in the past week

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.62 . levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.86 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

The Turkish lira fell against the dollar at the opening of the weekly trading, although trading remained in a narrow range. Investors followed reports on the Turkish government’s tendency to launch a 500-lira banknote, in addition to a 5-lira coin. Reports indicate the government’s inability to keep pace with the rise in inflation, which reached record levels, as it recorded 61 percent, and the decline of the lira, which has lost about half of its value since late last year. The expected steps are a reflection of the functioning of the Justice and Development government, which previously adjusted the price of the lira with the economic recovery that Turkey recorded during the party’s rule during the first ten years of this century.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell slightly against the dollar with the opening of trading, although the pair remained trading within a narrow trading range, which is evident on the chart. The pair breached the descending trend line on the 240-minute time frame, which is shown on the chart. The pair also rose around the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.60 and 14.45 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.68 and 14.75, respectively. We expect the lira to decline after retesting the broken descending trend line during the end of last week. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

We expect the lira to decline as long as the pair does not break the bottom recorded during last week.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buy or sell orders were activated on Thursday’s recommendations.

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.62 . levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.86 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

The Turkish lira fell during the second trading day after the Turkish Central Bank’s decision to fix the interest rate last Thursday. This happened contrary to the desire of the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is following a new monetary policy, which includes lowering the interest rate. This is in order to attract real investments away from hot money that targets obtaining the largest financial return without realizing a real addition to the economy. It appears that the Turkish Central Bank’s decision is motivated by tightening monetary policy around the world. Where most central banks around the world raise interest rates or take steps towards reducing stimulus programs, it will push the Turkish Central Bank to fix the interest rate so as not to go against the global trend at the present time. In other decisions taken by the Turkish Central Bank this morning, the bank reduced the interest rate on the required reserves, denominated in lira, to zero percent.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira’s trading declined against the dollar with the beginning of the week’s trading, as the US dollar pair against the Turkish lira maintained trading within a narrow trading range. This is evident on the chart, as the pair settled within very limited ranges before moving relatively strongly before resuming stability within a limited range. The pair is currently trading below the descending trend line on the 240-minute time frame, shown on the chart. The pair also varied below the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, while it traded between the same averages on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.50 and 14.25 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.76 and 14.85, respectively. We expect the lira to decline as long as the pair does not break the bottom recorded during last week. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

The pair will likely continue its consolidation phase today. The key support and resistance levels will be at 1.300 and 1.3200, respectively.

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD and set a take-profit at 1.3050.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.3165.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.3130 and a take-profit at 1.3200.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.3050.

The GBP/USD pair remained in a tight range on Tuesday morning as investors continued to assess the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine. It is trading at 1.3100, where it has been in he past few days. This price is about 1.5% below the highest point in mid-March.

Ukraine Crisis

The GBP/USD pair has been moving sideways in the past few days as investors assess the next options for the Bank of England (BOE) and the Federal Reserve.

Analysts agree that the two central banks are between a rock and a hard place. With the unemployment rate falling and inflation are rising, the two banks have decided to keep hiking interest rates. The BOE has already delivered three rate hikes while the Fed made its first hike in March.

The biggest concern is that the two economies will become more at risk if they become more aggressive. At the same time, there are concerns that failure to act could lead to a substantially higher inflation.

In his annual letter to shareholders, JP Morgan’s Chief Executive warned that there will be more volatility in the coming months. He recommended that the Fed should hold the course and deliver more rate hikes in a bid to slow inflation.

The GBP/USD is also moving sideways as investors focus on the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. The UK and US are both considering more sanctions on Russia after the country was accused of war crimes. As the escalation continues, we could see more inflation as the price of energy continue rising.

There will be no major data from the US and UK today. The only catalyst will be the latest services and composite PMI numbers by Markit and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). Their impacts on the pair will be muted though.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few days. As a result, the pair is trading at the 25-day moving average. It has also moved between the middle and lower lines of the Donchian Channels while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the neutral level at 50. The pair has also dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue its consolidation phase today. The key support and resistance levels will be at 1.300 and 1.3200, respectively.