The pair will likely have a breakout in the coming days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 19,600 and a take-profit at 18,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 21,500.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 20,800 and a take-profit at 22,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 18,000.

The BTC/USD price held steady at the 20,000 range as concerns about the crypto industry continued. Bitcoin is trading at $20,500, which is slightly above last week’s low of $18,622.

Has the Sell-Off Capitulated?

Bitcoin has been in a remarkable downward trend in the past few months as investors continue worrying about the industry. It is not alone considering that other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano have all dropped. In total, the market cap of all cryptocurrencies has crashed from an all-time high of $3 trillion to below $1 trillion.

The BTC/USD pair tilted higher during the American session even after the relatively hawkish minutes by the Federal Reserve. The bank’s officials said that a more restrictive policy will continue in the coming months in a bid to fight inflation. That statement set the stage for another above normal rate hike of either 0.50% or 0.75%. The statement said:

“Many participants judged that a significant risk now facing the committee was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the committee to adjust the stance of policy as warranted.”

Bitcoin rose in line with the performance of American equities as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 rose by more than 0.50%. Still, it is worth noting that stocks and Bitcoin and stocks tend to rise after Fed decisions and minutes and then erase these gains the following day.

Bitcoin is also reacting to corporate activity about cryptocurrencies. On Tuesday, Voyager Digital, a large Canadian exchange went bankrupt. In a positive sign, Nexo decided to acquire Vauld, a company that was on the verge of going bankrupt. FTX has also acquired BlockFi while Celsius is fighting for survival.

BTC/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a consolidation phase in the past few days. As a result, it has formed what looks like a symmetrical triangle pattern that is shown in purple. Now, this triangle is nearing its confluence level, meaning that a bullish breakout is likely. The pair is slightly above the 25-day moving average while the MACD has moved slightly above the neutral point.

Therefore, the pair will likely have a breakout in the coming days. While it is hard to predict, this breakout will likely be bearish since the triangle is likely a bearish pennant. If this happens, the next key support will be at 17,577.

 

Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD and set a take-profit at 32,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 28,368.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD and set a take-profit at 28,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 26,000.

The BTC/USD pair remained in the tight range where it has been in the past few weeks. Bitcoin is trading at 30,911, which is lower than this week’s high of $31,430. Its performance mirrors that of other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin stuck in a range

The BTC/USD pair declined on Monday and Tuesday after the SEC continued its crackdown on cryptocurrencies. The regulator is investigating Binance, the biggest cryptocurrency in the world for its BNB coin. According to media reports, the agency is questioning the company for selling the token without following the law.

Bitcoin is still consolidating after New York legislators passed a law banning Bitcoin mining. The new move is notable since most mining companies are now making losses considering that the cost of power has jumped sharply.

Meanwhile, data by Glassnode shows that most Bitcoin holders are now sitting on unrealized losses. Still, the report noted that there are signs that the bear market is close to ending. They cited the fact that profit multiples by miners have compressed while financial stress has increased. Historically, this is usually a sign that the bear market is capitulating.

Another sign that the bear market is nearing its end is the fact that the put-to-call ratio has remained below 0.70 for days. It has ended the uptrend that happened in the past few weeks. A ratio that is below 0.70 and falling is usually a bullish sign.

On a macro level, there is no major economic event scheduled today. The next key data to watch will be the upcoming US inflation data. Still, its impact on the BTC/USD pair will be relatively low.

BTC/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a narrow range in the past few days. The pair has moved between the key support and resistance level at 28,368 and 31,426. It is oscillating near the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

Meanwhile, the Mayer Multiple has moved to the oversold level of 0.68. This is a common indicator that shows the ratio between price and the 200-day moving average. As such, it is a tool used to find the deviation from the long-term average price.

Another model known as the Realized Price Model, which is used to identify bottoms. This price is currently at $23,600, which signals the average cost of all BTC in circulation. This is a sign that Bitcoin is about to bottom.

It seems like the bearish trend will continue as bears target the key support level at 1.2418, which was the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD and set a take-profit at 1.2418.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2550.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2540 and a take-profit at 1.2600.
• Add a stop-loss at 22450.

The GBP/USD pair is hovering near its lowest level since May 20th after the positive data from the UK. The pair is trading at 1.2488, which is about 2% below the highest level on May 27th ahead of the important US inflation data.

US Dollar Stages Comeback

The GBP/USD pair has retreated in the past few days as investors focus on the relatively strong US dollar. The closely-watched dollar index has risen in the past two straight days as investors continue pricing more risks in the market.

Last week, the market received key warning signs from corporate America. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of the biggest bank in the United States, warned that the situation was worsening. Tesla’s Elon Musk also issued a similar warning.

A few weeks before, important companies like Walmart and Target which employ a vast number of Americans warned that inflation was a major challenge. Therefore, investors are now anticipating a potential recession, which explains why stocks have retreated.

The GBP/USD retreated after the better-than-expected jobs numbers from the US made the case that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening in the coming months. The bank has already committed to delivering at least three more 0.50% hikes in the coming meetings.

Looking ahead, the pair will react to the upcoming US consumer inflation data that will come out on Friday. Analysts expect these numbers to show that the headline CPI declined from 8.3% in April to 8.1% in May. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, analysts expect that inflation fell from 6.2% to 5.9%. This will be a sign that inflation is now stabilizing.

The GBP/USD pair will also react to the reopening of the UK after the country’s long public holiday in honor of Queen Elizabeth.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair formed a rising wedge pattern that is shown in black. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bearish sign. This breakout happened last week when it move below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Now, the pair is approaching the important support at 1.2465, which was the lowest level on June 1.

Therefore, it seems like the bearish trend will continue as bears target the key support level at 1.2418, which was the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.