If we do break down below the 1.18 level, it’s likely that we can look towards 1.16 level next.

The GBP/USD currency pair has fallen again during trading on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of negativity when it comes to anything against the US dollar. Whether or not the British pound breaks down to a fresh, new low is a completely different story, but the fact that we have broken through the 1.20 level is of course an event worth paying attention to.

• Short-term rallies will almost certainly be selling opportunities in the market that has been negative for a while.
• We are more likely than not going to see a lot of noisy behavior, as choppiness has been one of the biggest problems in markets overall.
• As long as this is going to be the case, you need to be cautious with your position size as there has been a lot to chew through over the last several weeks.

Bank of England VS Federal Reserve

After all, the Bank of England has stated that they fully anticipate that the British economy is about to head into a recession. At the same time, there are a lot of questions as to whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to continue tightening at the pace they have been, which obviously would have a major influence on where things go next. Either way, we are in a downtrend so I don’t think there’s any reason to change the approach, as it is still a market that you are looking to fade on rallies. Furthermore, the 50 Day EMA above is more likely than not going to offer a bit of dynamic resistance, so it’s probably worth noting that area as a potential ceiling. If we do break down below the 1.18 level, it’s likely that we can look towards 1.16 level next. Ultimately, the only thing I think you can count on is a lot of noise, but that’s the same thing that you could have said about the last several weeks.

The US dollar is still the world’s favorite currency at the moment, so that’s the one thing that you need to keep in the back of your mind. It’s not until we break above the 1.25 level that I would consider going long of the British pound, even though we are pretty long in the tooth when it comes to this downtrend.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of yesterday’s buy or sell transactions were activated

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Turkish lira analysis

According to Vid data, Turkey’s total revenues in July were about 196.98 billion Turkish liras, while expenditures were about 260.999 billion liras, bringing the total deficit in July to 64 billion liras. During 2022, the revenues of the general budget in the country were recorded at about 1.642 trillion pounds, compared to the expenditures of 1.432 trillion pounds, as the general budget surplus recorded about 29.5 billion pounds. The lira was not significantly affected, as it quietly traded near its lowest levels during 2022. It is an image that reflects the extent of the Turkish Central Bank’s control over setting a ceiling for the lira price.

Technical Outlook for Turkish Lira

The USD/TRY currency pair settled within the same narrow trading range shown on the chart. The pair traded the highest support levels, which are concentrated at 17.85 and 17.75 levels, respectively. The lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. The pair is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair is heading in an overall bullish trend. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy deal of Thursday was activated and the exit was made after making a profit with closing half of the contracts and moving the stop-loss point as the price progressed towards the target.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

The price of the Turkish lira against the US dollar has stabilized unchanged at the same level for nearly three weeks, which clearly shows the intervention of the Turkish Central Bank in the exchange markets to achieve a kind of balance for the price of the USD/TRY currency pair. Indirectly, the Turkish Central Bank began preparing the atmosphere for a further decline of the lira against the dollar, after a poll published at the end of last week, which included the opinions of some representatives of the financial sector in the country, which showed a downward trend in the lira price. Expectations focus on the dollar reaching levels of 19 pounds by the end of this year. The poll also included pessimistic expectations regarding inflation levels in the country. In general, the economic data shows that there is no significant improvement in the upcoming expectations, which may be reflected in the price of the lira, which has no choice but to decline.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the US dollar against the Turkish lira settled without changes, as the pair settled within the same narrow trading range shown on the chart. It is an image that reflects the extent of the Turkish Central Bank’s control over setting a ceiling on the price of the lira. The pair maintained trading between the support levels that are concentrated at 17.85 and 17.75, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. The pair is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair is heading in an overall bullish trend. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses in its last sessions, by -0.18%, to lose about -58.13 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,774.42, after rising during trading at the beginning of the week on Monday by a rate of 0.09%.

Investors now see a 68.5% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points at its next meeting in September, which would be the third big increase in a row.

Given the importance of the July CPI release which is due later Wednesday and will be watched closely by traders, economists anticipate that the decline in energy prices could help slow the pace of consumer price increases, which are at their highest levels in decades. YoY headline CPI rose 9.1% in June, the highest level in four decades. Economists polled by FactSet expect the core CPI to slow to 8.7%, but analysts warned that a hotter-than-expected reading on the headline or core number – which excludes volatile food and energy prices could rattle markets.

Analysts said a drop in the New York Fed’s gauge of consumer inflation expectations on Monday was a positive sign, but strong wage growth data in the July jobs report released on Friday and a sharp rise in unit labor costs in data released on Tuesday were a concern.

Dow Jones Technical Outlook

The index found some negative pressure after testing the ceiling of that bearish corrective price channel that limits its recent trading in the short term. It is shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily), especially with the influx of negative signals on the relative strength indicators, after their arrival earlier. Overbought areas, all of this comes in light of the continuation of positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, which curbed the index’s recent losses.

Therefore, our expectations indicate a decline in the index during its upcoming trading, throughout the stability of the resistance 33,240, to target the support level 31,885.

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The market will continue to see a lot of pressure, but I think that the occasional rally will scare a lot of short-sellers.

The French index had tried to rally a bit in the futures market earlier on Thursday but then sold off quite drastically as we have seen negativity in stock markets around the world. We are now significantly below the €6000 level, breaking down to the €5800 level by the end of the session. I think it’s only a matter of time before we break down below, but right now it’s probably only a matter of time before we get some type of relief rally. That relief rally is something that I would not trust because quite frankly there’s no reason to buy equities anywhere right now.

The narrative around stocks is far too negative to think that now is the time to pick up value, despite what talking heads will tell you. The reality is that there is a lot of fear out there, and it’s only going to get worse. The market will continue to see a lot of pressure, but I think that the occasional rally will scare a lot of short-sellers. However, breaking down below the €5700 level opens up the possibility of a move down to the €5500 level.

The ECB is not quite ready to announce its completely dovish intentions, but a few cracks in the ice have appeared. If that happens, it may help stocks, but eventually we will start to talk about whether or not the economy is growing or not. The French economy is suffering right along with the rest of other major ones, so it’s not a huge surprise to see the CAC fall right along with everything else. Ultimately, rallies at this point cannot be trusted for a bigger move until we get above the 6400 level. If we break above there, then we could turn around completely. However, this is a market that shows a lot of uncertainty, and therefore fear should continue to run where we go next. The selling off of the CAC is going to coincide with everything that we see around the world, including the DAX which leads the rest of the European Union. The one thing that I would say is to make sure that you keep your position size relatively reasonable, as the volatility will continue to cause headaches for those trading this market going forward. The Euro has strengthened over the last couple of days, but it’s probably only a matter of time before we see the euro fall as well.

Our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses for the fifth consecutive day, by -0.50%, to lose the index towards -151.91 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 30,364.84, after its decline during Monday’s trading by – 2.79%.

As markets prepare for a more aggressive policy tightening from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, some analysts still believe the FOMC will stand by the 50 basis point increase it has been hinting at in recent weeks, as yesterday’s sharp market sell-off marks investors who have finally acclimatized. With painful steps that will be required to bring down high inflation to its highest level in 40 years, markets believe that the US Federal Reserve will need more rate hikes to try to slow demand and control inflation.

A pair of sentiment indicators and the monthly producer price report served as the key US data points on Tuesday, with the producer price index rising 0.8% in May after rising 0.4% in April, with energy prices up 5% and food prices stable. The National Federation of Independent Business monthly sentiment index fell slightly to 93.1 in May from 93.2 in the previous two months. The Daily Business Investor Confidence Index, the first consumer gauge for June, fell to 38.1 from 41.2 in May, the lowest level since August 2011. A reading below 50 indicates more pessimism.

Technically, the index suffers from the continuation of negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. Negative signals are appearing in the RSI indicators, despite reaching oversold areas. All of this comes in light of the index’s trading along a corrective bearish slope line in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a time period (daily).

Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading, throughout its stability below the main resistance level 31,000, to target the support level 29,550.

BNB/USD stumbled to long term lows a handful of hours ago as the broad cryptocurrency markets remain in a downward spin.

BNB/USD briefly touched the 203.0000 price level a handful of hours ago. The lower mark this morning penetrated last month’s low seen on the 12^th of May when BNB/USD momentarily hit the 205.0000 mark before reversing higher. However this morning’s lowest depth did not produce the same violent reversal higher as it did on the 12^th of May and this could prove significant.

The move higher produced in the second week of May when long term lows were seen, saw a rise in price to nearly 280.0000 within the same day. A reproduction of that upwards reversal today likely has little faith to build on. Meaning speculators remain extremely wary and are likely braced for more negative price movement, after yesterday’s crash within the broad cryptocurrency marketplace.

As of this writing BNB/USD is traversing near the 228.0000 level and the recent lowest depths of Binance Coin are still within sight.  Intriguingly while many of the major cryptocurrencies are now testing values not seen since 2020, BNB/USD still has not fallen below values seen in early March of 2021. Optimists may stand up and cheer and claim this means a reversal higher can be produced near term. However, skeptics of which there are likely many may look at technical charts, and believe if the 200.0000 level is broken lower in BNB/USD another steep fall may occur in Binance Coin value.

Binance Coin is used to facilitate trading on the Binance exchange and is speculated on too by traders. It should be noted the Binance exchange had to stop transacting trades in Bitcoin yesterday momentarily when transaction levels became extreme. While this may not have a direct correlation on the price of BNB/USD, the fact that Binance had to halt trading should serve as a cautionary reminder regarding the volatility which clearly exists currently.

If the broad digital asset market remains nervous, and it likely will, BNB/USD may continue to see tests of recent lows again.  The near term promises to be volatile and traders who are contemplating selling positions cannot be blamed. Risk management needs to be practiced by all traders under the present trading conditions.

If BNB/USD fails to produce a significant rise above the 240.0000 level in the short term, this may be a sign that another move lower could be demonstrated sooner rather than later.  If support near the 212.0000 level starts to be flirted with this would be a negative sign. Speculators need to be ready for price velocity. If the 200.0000 mark level fails to hold back selling positions today, BNB/USD could see a test of February 2021 prices around the 185.0000 juncture.

Binance Coin Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 250.4000

Current Support: 212.0000

High Target: 279.9000

Low Target: 185.5000

Our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses in its last sessions, by -1.05%, to lose the index about -348.58 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,899.70, after its rise in Thursday’s trading by 1.33%, During the past week, the index decreased by 0.9%.

Stocks came under pressure after the strongly positive non-farm payrolls report in the US, which saw around 390K jobs added in May. This was higher than the 325,000 that economists had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The report fueled already aggressive rate hike bets by the Federal Reserve. Investors are now anticipating 50 basis point gains at the next two Federal Reserve meetings, and an 84% chance of a 50 basis point hike at its September meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar halted its two-week losing streak, rising nearly half a percent over the course of the week. Stocks somewhat responded with those aggressive bets.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, compared to the expected 3.5% rate. The labor force expanded by 330,000, and the labor force participation rate recovered slightly but remained below its pre-coronavirus level.

Technically, the recent index’s decline came as a result of the stability of the important resistance level 33,271.90. This is the resistance that we had referred to in our previous reports, in light of its trading within a descending corrective price channel that limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). This is with the continuation of the negative pressure of its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. We notice the start of the influx of negative signals with the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas that are highly overbought. If it is compared to the movement of the index, it suggests that the divergence is starting to be negative, which doubles from negative pressures on its upcoming trading.

Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance level 33,271.90 remains intact, to target the main support level 32,000.

Our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses for the second day in a row, by -0.54%, to lose the index towards -176.89 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,813.24, after it declined in Tuesday’s trading by -0.67%.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned in a speech that the Fed was in danger of losing control of how much inflation US households expect. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that the time to pause interest rate hikes is when the Fed raises its benchmark interest rates to around 2.5%.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index came in at 56.1 for the month of May, up from 55.4 in April, with any reading above 50 representing activity growth. New orders grew indicating that manufacturers are anticipating strong demand even with higher interest rates.

Jobs remained near record levels in April, with 11.4 million jobs created, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Recently there were about 1.9 jobs for every unemployed person.

More economic data to come, jobless claims are due on Thursday, and then the jobs report for May will be released on Friday. Economists are looking to add 328,000 jobs, which will be down from the 428,000 jobs added in April.

Technically, the index’s decline came as a result of the stability of the important resistance level 33,271.90, with the beginning of the emergence of a negative intersection with the relative strength indicators. This is after they reached areas of severe overbought, in an exaggerated manner compared to the movement of the index, which suggests the beginning of a negative divergence in it. All of this comes under the control of the corrective bearish trend and the index’s trading within its price channel range. This is shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, in addition to the continuation of the negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance level 33,271.90 remains intact, to target the main support level 32,000.

At this point, I think you need to pay close attention to momentum and other indices as they all tend to move in the same direction over the longer term.

The German DAX index pulled back a bit Tuesday after initially trying to rally. The Tuesday session in the DAX has initially tried to break above the 50-day EMA but struggled to continue. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back-and-forth action, but as we are at the top of the bearish channel, it’s likely that we would see sellers continue to cause issues.

It’s worth noting that the €14,000 level has offered a bit of support, and if we can break down below there, it’s likely that we would go looking to the €13,750 level next, possibly even the €13,000 level over the longer term. Keep in mind that the DAX is highly sensitive to the overall outlook for the European Union, and it is worth noting that something is less than rosy at this point. The ECB is talking about tightening, so it does make sense that we will see equities on the continent suffer.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, it’s likely that we will see a move to the downside. On the other hand, if we were to break above the €14,250 level, then it’s possible that the DAX may recover, perhaps reaching toward the 200-day EMA which is at the €14,750 level. Regardless, I think the one thing you can probably count on is a lot of volatility, so you need to be cautious with your position size. I think we are going to continue to have to pay close attention to statements coming out of the ECB, because if they start to sound more and more hawkish, then that will put more downward pressure on the DAX.

At this point, I think you need to pay close attention to momentum and other indices as they all tend to move in the same direction over the longer term. If other indices around the world start to fall, that will drag the DAX right along with it. The market has been grinding lower since the beginning of April, and it’s possible that we will continue to see a lot of this through the summer as the world tries to figure out supply chain issues, and of course inflation.