Pay close attention to the bond market, because if yields start to spike again, then it’s possible that we will see the NASDAQ 100 take a real beating. 

• The NASDAQ 100 Index gapped lower to kick off Friday as the jobs number in America showed that there were over 500,000 jobs added during the month of July.
• As the market got wind of this, it started to sell off as interest rates in America started to rally.
• Because of this, a lot of pressure came in on the stock markets.

Keep an Eye on 13,000

The 13,000 level underneath should be an area of interest, as it was a previous resistant barrier. However, what we will truly be paying attention to is what happens this week, because if we were to break down through that level, it could continue the run lower. On the other hand, if we break above the 13,500 level, then it’s possible that this market will go much higher. The market break above the 13,500 level would be a massive turn of events, but I don’t see that happening without some type of dovish behavior out of the Federal Reserve.

Ironically, the Federal Reserve has been trying to explain to the market how they are not dovish all week. It was not until we sold the jobs number coming as hot as it did that Wall Street started to accept this as reality. Remember, Wall Street is about getting handouts from the Fed, not trading the economy. This is a mistake that the Federal Reserve has made over the last 14 years, and now it has to deal with the addiction that they have forced upon the street. Now that they actually have to pay attention to the economy, the Federal Reserve has to convince an entire generation of traders that there are things beyond loose monetary policy that can be factored into an asset.

If we do break down, the 12,250 level will be interesting to pay attention to, due to the fact that it was previous resistant and of course the 50-day EMA is hanging around in the general vicinity. Pay close attention to the bond market, because if yields start to spike again, then it’s possible that we will see the NASDAQ 100 take a real beating. On the other hand, if yields start to fall, that should be good for this market, as it brings in more “cheap money” from the Federal Reserve, at least that’s the thinking.

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We will continue to see a lot of volatility until things become crystal clear.

• The S&P 500 Index did almost nothing during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see this market bang up against a significant resistance barrier.
• That resistant barrier is the 4200 level, which is an area that previously has been rather difficult to get above.
• The jobs number coming out on Friday is a major influence on what happens next.

At this point, the market will have to pay close attention to the Non-Farm Payroll number, as it is going to determine what the Federal Reserve is likely to do going forward. After all, the Federal Reserve continues to tell the markets that they are going to remain very tight to fight inflation, but for some reason, the market will not listen to them. This is probably because the Federal Reserve has lost all credibility over the last years, as they have spoon-fed Wall Street.

FED’s biggest problem is going to be inflation

However, the biggest problem that the Federal Reserve will have is going to be inflation. If the jobs number is still very strong, it’s very likely that we will see the Federal Reserve have to tighten going forward, and perhaps that might be what Wall Street pays attention to, at least for the moment. The market has got a little bit stretched, and it looks to me like the 4100 level underneath is going to be a short-term support level. If we were to break down below the 4100 level, then the market is likely to drop down to the 50 Day EMA which is below the 4000 handle.

The alternate scenario is that the jobs number is extraordinarily soft, which means that the Federal Reserve may not have to be as aggressive with tightening as they claim. All things being equal, this is an argument and a game of chicken between these two entities, which is a bit surprising considering that it’s been a week of different Fed speakers trying to explain to the market how wrong they read the last press conference. Because of this, we will continue to see a lot of volatility until things become crystal clear. Ultimately, I believe that by the time we get through the Friday session, we may have a bit more clarity. This would be nice of course, but we will have to wait and see how this plays out.

I will be waiting on the sidelines for the next 24 hours until I put any money to work on Monday as it could be a much clearer situation by then.

• The NASDAQ 100 Index has gone back and forth during trading on Thursday
• We continue to see the market focus on inflation and whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to be involved.
• The market is likely to get a bit of resolution after the Non-Farm Payroll number on Friday, as traders are trying to figure out whether or not the Federal Reserve is serious about tightening monetary policy.

It’s amazing how many Federal Reserve members have come out during the past week and discussed that the Federal Reserve is serious about tightening rates and fighting inflation, so you should keep in mind that once the market “gets it”, it could be a very vicious turnaround. However, if the inflationary headwinds start to abate, that could cause another melt-up. When you look at the fundamental information out there, there’s no real reason for this to be happening other than hope

If the market were to turn around and break down below the 13,000 level, that gets in this market much lower, but I think the only thing you can count on is a lot of volatility and noise. The 50 Day EMA sits just below the 12,250 level and is curling higher. That’s an area where people should start to pay close attention to for support, and if we were to break down below that level, it’s likely that this market goes much lower.

I think the only thing you can count on here is going to be a lot of noise, therefore it’s likely that we would see a lot of back-and-forth trading, therefore you need to be very cautious. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how we close on Friday because it could give you an idea as to how much faith people have in the market because holding on to a position for the weekend speaks volumes. If the market cannot do so, then it shows you that they have no real belief in this rally, and we probably have further to go to the downside. Either way, I will be waiting on the sidelines for the next 24 hours until I put any money to work on Monday as it could be a much clearer situation by then. However, the proof will be in the price action.

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The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, and therefore it does suggest that there is at least some interest in going higher.

The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Thursday to reach the 3900 level. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to decide whether or not it is going to continue to break out to the outside, but we have the jobs number coming out on Friday which could have a major influence on where we go next. Because of this, I think we have the possibility of a complete reversal, or perhaps a move to the 50 Day EMA.

It’s difficult to guess where we are going next, but it is worth noting that we have a massive downtrend on our hands, and although we have seen a nice turnaround over the last week or so, the reality is we have a long way to go before things truly change. With that being the case, I like the idea of fading rallies at the first signs of exhaustion, and it would not surprise me at all to see a massive move on Friday. The problem of course is guessing where we are going to go next.

The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, and therefore it does suggest that there is at least some interest in going higher. However, it’s worth noting that the volume over the last several days has been less than impressive, so it does suggest that perhaps this might be more of a short-covering rally than anything else. Federal Reserve monetary policy continues to be a big problem, and therefore people are going to be cautious about getting overly bullish, but there are a certain amount of traders out there willing to gamble on what’s going to happen next. Until something truly changes, namely economic information, then it’s difficult to get overly aggressive to the upside.

That being said, if we were to take out the 4000 level to the outside, it’s possible that we could make a move to the 4200 level. At the 4200 level, I would consider this to be a major trend change. At that point, the S&P 500 will completely ignore the economy, or perhaps guess where it’s going next, and go much higher. One thing is for sure, there is going to be a lot of noise, as there is nothing but uncertainty out there.

I think you have plenty of time to build a position in Ethereum, and you will probably get an opportunity to buy it at lower levels.

Ethereum markets were very quiet on Friday, which is not a huge surprise considering that it was a holiday. With good Friday coming and going, a lot of traders would not have been that interested. The $3000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that would attract a lot of attention, not to mention the fact that we have the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA just above.

If we were to break down below the $2900 level, then it is possible that we could break down rather significantly. After that, we could go looking towards the $2750 level, maybe even the $2500 level. The $2500 level is an area that has seen plenty of support previously, so I think it will be a place where we have a lot of buyers in that general vicinity. If we were to break down below the $2500 level, then it is possible that we could go to the $2000 level given enough time.

If for some reason we were to break down below the $2000 level, it would open up the possibility of a “crypto winter”, as it would be a major breach of support. Furthermore, you should keep in mind that it was just announced that the June merge seems to be pushed back indefinitely, as Ethereum continues to drag its feet moving forward. This is not a good look, and one has to wonder how long it will be before people start to lose faith? I do not necessarily think that will end up being the longer-term trajectory of Ethereum, because I do think that the Ethereum project is going to fail, just that it is taking longer than anticipated. I still have a lot of faith in Ethereum longer term, but right now it still looks as if the project is going to stall a bit, and that is certainly not a good look considering that Bitcoin is struggling to rally as well. With this, I think you have plenty of time to build a position in Ethereum, and you will probably get an opportunity to buy it at lower levels. Ultimately, if we were to turn around and break above the highs of the candlestick earlier this week, then we could open up a move to the $3500 level, possibly even the $4000 given enough time.

The reaction over the last couple of days has really put a dark cloud over this market, so we will have to wait and see how this plays out.

The Bitcoin market did very little on Tuesday after selling off quite drastically on Monday. By sitting still, we are trying to figure out whether or not the $40,000 level will be an area of importance going forward, perhaps extending all the way down to the $38,000 level. If we were to somehow break through all of that, it would be a very negative turn of events, and the fact that we have seen this market be so noisy means that it could very well happen.

Looking at the size of this candlestick is interesting to see that we have stopped dead in our tracks, so if we were to turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, the theory is that there would be buyers coming back into the market. However, the overall risk appetite out there is a bit dicey, to say the least, and that does no favors for Bitcoin. If we were to break down below the $35,000 level, I believe that the Bitcoin market will fall apart, and we could see a massive move much lower.

Alternately, if we can take out the 200-day EMA above, which would be near the $44,386 level, then the market is likely to go higher. At that point, we will probably threaten the $48,000 level, followed by the $50,000 level. That being said, this market looks like it is going to consolidate at best, so I think you have plenty of time to get involved with Bitcoin, because crypto in general looks soft, to say the least.

Ultimately, if you are a short-term trader, you may use the $40,000 level as an entry point or support point. At this juncture, I think the market is probably one you need to trade from a short-term standpoint, so I would be very cautious about trying to hang on to the move unless you are comfortable holding through “crypto winter”, which is a very real possibility at this point. The reaction over the last couple of days has really put a dark cloud over this market, so we will have to wait and see how this plays out but I do not necessarily see this chart as being as enthusiastic as it had been previously.

For the second day in a row, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair is moving within profit-taking operations. This noted a lot about the possibility of it happening at any time after the pair’s gains towards the resistance level 125.10 at the beginning of this week’s trading, the highest for the currency pair in seven years. The recent selling operations pushed the pair towards the 121.30 level this morning. The Japanese yen has recently fallen sharply amid the widening gap between the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), but the USD/JPY may rise further, according to Mizuho’s foreign exchange sales office, with potential implications for the GBP/JPY.

In this regard, the head of foreign exchange sales for financial institutions at Mizuho said on Tuesday that the Japanese yen is likely to fall further, and that the USD/JPY may reach the level of 130 in the coming months, a possible outcome that would raise the pound/ Japanese yen to 170 or more.

“I doubt the current uptrend is over,” said Neil Jones, Mizuho’s Head of FX Sales for Financial Institutions, in a note to clients. Looking for more yen sales in April and May. My personal sense is an orderly trend above the dollar at moderate speed with steady ranges.” He added, “The roadmap should prove 125 to 130 more liquidity than the recent price movement and limit official attention to only verbal references.”

The yen stabilized against the dollar and the British pound on Tuesday in what may be profit taking by speculative traders after overnight comments from Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, who said the government is watching the yen closely. This was after the yen fell to multi-year lows in the opening session of the week when the Bank of Japan said it would intervene in the Japanese government bond market with unlimited purchases in order to limit increases in government borrowing costs.

Lee Hardman, FX analyst at Japan’s MUFG, said: “While comments from Japanese officials overnight are unlikely to reverse the yen’s weakening trend on their own, they should at least help slow the recent rapid pace of yen selling that it has been evident over the past two weeks.”

Part of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is to keep the 10-year government borrowing cost close to 0.10% and prevent it from rising above 0.25%, although enforcement of this policy has become more difficult in recent weeks due in part to Federal Reserve monetary policy. .

The Fed raised the US federal funds rate for the first time since 2018 this month. Markets are increasingly expecting that it will likely reverse further over the remainder of the year, cuts that previously lowered the benchmark from 1.75% back in year 2020. US inflation approached eight percent in February and could rise further, necessitating a quick pivot by the Federal Reserve to reset its monetary policy settings to a less stimulating calibration of the US economy that does not increase price pressures.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: The price of the USD/JPY currency pair may continue to move in limited ranges until the announcement of the US economic growth number and the number of US non-farm payrolls from ADP later today. So far, the general trend of the dollar-yen will remain bullish as long as it is stable above the 120.00 psychological resistance, and a clear break of this trend may occur if the currency pair moves towards the 118.50 support level, according to the performance on the daily chart.

In the same current path, the resistance levels will be 122.75 and 123.60, the closest targets. We still prefer to sell the dollar yen from each ascending level.