Pain – xMetaMarkets.com / Online Innovative Trading Facility Thu, 18 Aug 2022 08:54:06 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 /wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cropped-Logo-menu-32x32.png Pain – xMetaMarkets.com / 32 32 More Pain Ahead as Bears Eye 0.6950 /2022/08/18/more-pain-ahead-as-bears-eye-0-6950/ /2022/08/18/more-pain-ahead-as-bears-eye-0-6950/#respond Thu, 18 Aug 2022 08:54:06 +0000 /2022/08/18/more-pain-ahead-as-bears-eye-0-6950/ [ad_1]

The pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at 0.6950.

Bearish View

  • Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6950.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.7050.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

  • Set a buy-stop at 0.7050 and a take-profit at 0.7150.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6970.

The AUD/USD price dropped to a low of 0.700 as the market reacted to the latest minutes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The price was about 2% below the highest level this month ahead of the latest US retail sales and FOMC minutes.

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FOMC Minutes and US Retail Sales

The AUD/USD has been in a strong bearish trend as the market waited for the upcoming US retail sales numbers. These are important data because consumer spending is the biggest part of the American economy.

Economists expect the numbers to reveal that the volume of retail sales dropped in July this year. They believe that sales dropped from 1.0% in June to 0.1% in July. In the same period, analysts expect that core sales dropped from 1.0% to -0.1% in July.

These results comes a day after the some of the biggest retailers in the country published their results. Walmart said that its revenue rose by 8.4% in the second quarter to $152.85 billion. Similarly, Home Depot, the biggest home improvement retailer, said that its net income rose to $5.17 billion. Other firms like Target and Lowe’s are expected to publish strong results.

The AUD/USD price will also react to the latest minutes by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These minutes will provide more details about the deliberations took place in its July meeting. In it, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 0.75% and continue with its quantitative tightening policy.

Most Fed officials believe that the bank will continue hiking interest rates even after last week’s weak inflation numbers. The data showed that the country’s inflation dropped slightly in June as gasoline prices dropped.

AUD/USD Forecast

The AUD/USD price dropped to 0.700, which was the lowest level since August 10. On the four-hour chart, the pair moved slightly below the important support level at 0.7050, which was the highest point on August 1st. It moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the standard pivot point.

The pair has also formed a break and retest pattern by retesting the key point at 0.7050. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at 0.6950. A move above the resistance at 0.7055 will invalidate the bearish view.

AUD/USD

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DAX Forecast: Futures Suggests Further Pain /2022/05/02/dax-forecast-futures-suggests-further-pain/ /2022/05/02/dax-forecast-futures-suggests-further-pain/#respond Mon, 02 May 2022 08:07:56 +0000 https://excaliburfxtrade.com/2022/05/02/dax-forecast-futures-suggests-further-pain/ [ad_1]

Ultimately, the market will continue to fluctuate with risk appetite, which is horrible at this point.

The German DAX Index gapped higher in the futures market on Friday to show signs of promise. However, we have seen a lot of resistance near the €14,250 level again and then sold off to form a shooting star. This suggests that we are going to continue the overall downtrend, and it is likely that the DAX will find plenty of selling pressure. The gap that we kicked off the day with still has not been filled,  at the vsoery least, you would expect that to happen.

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If we break down below the gap, then the market is likely to go looking to the €13,750 level, maybe even the €13,600 level underneath that. That is where we had bounced from previously but clearing that allows much more selling going forward. Furthermore, we are in a down-trending channel, and it suggests at this point that we may accelerate that move.

Keep in mind that Germany is very likely heading into a recession, so it makes sense that the DAX will continue to see plenty of pressure to the downside. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break above the 50-day EMA, which is currently at the €14,350 level and shrinking, we could see a complete turnaround, but at this point I just do not see the momentum in this market. This is especially true after the lack of follow-through on the move higher. Ultimately, the market will continue to fluctuate with risk appetite, which is horrible at this point.

When I look around the world, it is obvious that there are a lot of indices that all look very weak, so I think the DAX will not be any different. The overall attitude of equities around the world continues to be very soft, and with the energy concerns, inflation, and lack of growth in the European Union, Germany will be the first place people start to short as it is Europe’s largest economy. Furthermore, we have the war going on in Ukraine, which of course has a lot of people concerned about what could happen with the European economy on the whole. The ECB is essentially stuck, and at this point cannot do much, so I think equities are at the mercy of short-sellers.

DAX Index

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