The bears will target long-term profits at around 0.9920 or lower at 0.9770.

Investors’ desire to buy the US dollar and abandon the euro due to concern about a bleak future for the recovery of the euro bloc contributed to the increase in the selling operations of the EUR/USD currency pair. This is with losses that reached the 1.0032 support level, the lowest in five weeks, and closed last week’s trading stable around those losses. The euro is on track to fall 1.7% since last Friday, which would be its worst trading week since July 8. The British pound is on its way to recording its worst week in more than a year and is headed for a 2% drop. This performance of the most famous currency pair in the forex market is on an important date this week with the announcement of the growth rate of the US economy, along with the Jackson Hole Symposium event, which will have a strong reaction to the expectations of raising US interest rates in the remainder of 2022.

In this regard, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Lewis, James Bullard, said that he is leaning towards supporting the US interest rate hike for the third time in a row by 75 basis points in September, while Mary Daly, a colleague at the Federal Reserve Bank in San Francisco, said that raising interest rates by 50 Or 75 basis points next month would be “reasonable.” Kansas City Fed President Esther George said she and her colleagues won’t stop tightening policy until they are “fully convinced” that hyperinflation is going down.

Economic Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading affected by the announcement that the European Union Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the month of July matches the expected (monthly) change of 0.1% with a reading of 0.1%, while the equivalent (based on annual) in line with 8.9%. The previous HICP index for food, energy and air transport also matched expectations on a monthly (monthly) and (annual) basis. Prior to that, it was announced that the European primary GDP for the second quarter fell from the expected change in the ninth quarter of the year by 0.7% with a change of 0.6%, while the equivalent (on an annual basis) also came less than 4% with a change of 0.6%. 3.9%.

In the United States, initial US jobless claims for the week ending August 12 exceeded the expected claim count of 265K with a lower count of 250K. On the other hand, the continuing claims of the previous week beat the expected figure of 1.438 million with 1.437 million. Prior to that, US retail sales numbers for July beat the expected 0.6% change with a 0.8% change, while general retail sales fell 0.1%, down 0% month-on-month.

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair:

In the near term and according to the hourly chart, it appears that the EUR/USD pair has recently completed a bearish breakout from forming an ascending channel. This indicates a significant shift in market sentiment in favor of the bears. Therefore, they will look to extend the current declines towards the 1.0000 support or lower to 0.9945 and on the other hand, the bulls will look to take profits around 1.0112 or higher at 1.0143.

In the longer term and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the EUR/USD currency pair has recently completed a downside breakout forming an ascending channel. This indicates that the bears are trying to control the pair. Therefore, the bears will target long-term profits at around 0.9920 or lower at 0.9770. On the other hand, the bulls will look to see a bounce around 1.0196 or higher at 1.0371.

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The path of the least resistance for the pair is lower, with the next key support being at S2 of the Woodie pivot point at 0.6640. 

Bearish View

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6640.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6850.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 0.6800 and a take-profit at 0.6900.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6700.

The AUD/USD pair retreated in the American and Asian sessions as worries about a recession converged with hawkish central bank policies. It dropped to a low of 0.6765, which was the lowest level since June 2020.

Recession Fears and Rate Hikes

The AUD/USD price declined sharply as fears of a recession spread around the world. These fears led to a major bond sell-off that pushed American and Australian yields higher. Wall Street stocks and commodities like gold and crude oil also crashed.

Therefore, there are concerns that the ongoing policies by central banks will exarcebate the situation. Historically, central banks tend to ease policies when there are fears of a recession. This time, however, most banks have embraced a more hawkish tone in a bid to deal with the soaring inflation.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to deliver its third interest rate hike of the year. It made its first back-to-back 0.50% hike in almost three decades. Most importantly, officials ware that another 0.50% hike cannot be ruled out as long as inflation remains stubbornly higher.

In a statement, Philip Lowe said that the aggressive rate hikes are necessary to slow spending and bring inflation near its 2% target. Still, he agreed that these hikes will not be enough to lower inflation. The bank anticipates that rates will end the year at about 7%. In addition to the war in Ukraine, the other important causes of inflation in Australia are the ongoing floods and capacity constraints.

The next key catalyst for the AUD/USD will be the upcoming FOMC minutes. These minutes will provide more color about the deliberations that happened in the previous meeting. The most important thing to watch will be whether some officials are concerned about the fast pace of tightening.

AUD/USD Forecast

The AUD/USD pair declined sharply even after the latest hawkish decision by the RBA. On the 4H chart, the pair has moved below the important psychological support at 0.6800. It also dropped below the Woodie pivot point and is now approaching the first support.

The pair declined below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the pair is lower, with the next key support being at S2 of the Woodie pivot point at 0.6640. The stop-loss for this trade is at the pivot at 0.6840.

The pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the first resistance of the standard pivot point at 1.06.

Bullish View

• Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0600.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0510 and a take-profit at 1.0450.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0600.

The EUR/USD pair held steady on Monday morning as investors focused on the upcoming US housing and consumer confidence data. It is trading at 1.0556, which is slightly above last week’s low of 1.0475.

US Durable Goods and Housing Data

The EUR/USD pair held relatively well last week even as Jerome Powell talked about the need for more tightening. In testimonies to Senate and House of Representative, Jerome Powell said that the bank will continue hiking interest rates until it sees evidence that inflation was falling. This means that the bank will maintain a hawkish tone in the coming months.

The pair also rose as volatility dropped slightly. The closely-watched CBOE volatility index retreated by more than 5% last week. As it dropped, American equities staged a strong recovery, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 index rising by more than 2% on Friday.

The EUR/USD pair also rose even as the energy crisis in Europe continued. Russia has already slashed natural gas deliveries to the region and there are worries that the situation will continue worsening in the coming weeks. In a statement, Germany’s economy minister warned that the country would have a Lehman moment if Russia stops flows completely.

The next key data to watch will be the upcoming US durable goods and pending home sales. Economists expect the data to show that durable goods orders declined sharply in May as business confidence dropped and inflation surged.

Pending home sales are expected to have dropped by 4% in May after falling by 3.9% in the previous month. Last week, data showed that new and existing home sales dropped in May as mortgage rates rose. The average mortgage rate rose to 6%, meaning that the sector could continue struggling in the coming months.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. It has moved slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. At the same time, the pair has risen above the standard pivot point and the ascending trendline shown in black. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD have pointed upwards.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the first resistance of the standard pivot point at 1.06. A drop below the key support at 1.05 will invalidate the bullish trend.

The outlook of the pair is bearish, with the next key support level being at 0.6850.

Bearish View

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6850.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.700.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 0.6960 and a take-profit at 0.7025.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6900.

The AUD/USD formed a break and retest pattern as Jerome Powell testified in Senate. The pair rose to a high of 0.6950, which was slightly above this week’s low of 0.6885.

Jerome Powell Testimony

The AUD/USD pair rebounded even as worries about a global recession continued. While some commodity prices remain at an elevated level, others have declined sharply as investors worry about a potential recession.

For example, the price of key commodities like natural gas, copper, and iron ore have pulled back sharply recently. In most cases, lower commodity prices usually has a negative impact on Australia since exports play an important role in the economy.

Still, falling commodity prices could help lower the country’s inflation, which is at the highest level in years. In a statement on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor warned that inflation will likely continue rising because of the soaring demand. He also warned about the tight labor market.

The AUD/USD pair rose slightly after the statement by Jerome Powell. In a testimony before a senate committee, Jerome Powell warned that the US could move to a recession in the coming months. He noted that the labor market was extremely hot and that inflation could keep rising in the coming month.

At the same time, he argued that high interest rates were necessary to manage this inflation. Therefore, analysts expect that the bank will hike rates by another 0.75% in July and then move to 0.50% in the following month. Expectations in the bond market is that the bank will hike above the neutral rate of 2.5% this year.

Jerome Powell will conclude his two-day testimony on Thursday while Markit will publish the latest US initial jobless claims data today.

AUD/USD Forecast

The AUDUSD price made a bearish breakout below the lower side of the symmetrical triangle on Tuesday. It also moved below the key support at 0.6950, which is the Woodie pivot point. At the same time, it made a break and retest pattern when it retested the lower side of the triangle pattern. In most cases, this pattern is usually a sign of continuation.

The pair has also moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, the outlook of the pair is bearish, with the next key support level being at 0.6850.

The GBP/USD exchange rate has entered the new week’s trading as it is healing fresh wounds near two-year lows. It will risk further heavy losses in the coming days without a “hardcore” surprise from the Bank of England (BoE) or the prospect of unexpected patience by the Bank of England. GBP/USD losses reached the 1.2106 support level, the lowest in two years, before settling around the 1.2165 level at the time of writing the analysis.

The currency pair fell sharply on Friday when US inflation figures warned that the path back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target would likely include a longer and more difficult journey than parts of the market had previously anticipated. This comes after headline inflation jumped 1% in May and core inflation remained unchanged at 0.6% m/m when it was expected to fall to 0.5%, which could have implications for the extent to which the inflation rate is. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve will raise the US interest rate this week and in the coming months

Last Friday’s data sent up US bond yields that lifted the dollar and weighed on stock markets around the world as well as many other currencies, and it was likely another watershed moment for Fed policy makers ahead of Wednesday’s interest rate decision. “The increase in short-term yields is fueling a renewed tightening of financial conditions that are likely to continue to support the dollar this week with focus on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday,” said Derek Halpini, head of global markets research at MUFG.

Market participants will be watching closely for updated guidance on the path for further tightening. According to experts, the updated dot chart may indicate that the Fed plans to raise US interest rates by more than the neutral zone in the coming years to combat the risks of bullish inflation.

In this regard, some Fed policymakers have suggested in recent weeks that they may feel comfortable slowing the pace of rate hikes if core inflation begins to decline convincingly, and Friday’s data indicated that point is still a bit off. This, in turn, suggests that the bank may have to deal with the interest rate more than many have anticipated so far in order to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: the bears controlling the performance of the stronger GBP/USD currency pair and heading to the psychological support 1.2000 is not far away. All pressure factors on the sterling will support the move towards this support, and the currency pair may remain under pressure until the markets react to the decisions of the central bank US tomorrow. Growth and jobs figures in Britain increased the suffering of the sterling against the rest of the currencies.

In case the currency pair moves to rebound higher, the resistance levels may be 1.2220, 1.2300 and 1.2385, the closest if this happens, and in general, the stronger general trend is still to the downside.

The EUR has a medium-term bullish potential, which indicates that a long streak of losses will fade soon.

Despite the recent stability of the EUR/USD currency pair’s performance, the US dollar continued its strength. The bears found an opportunity to launch lower again, and the currency pair retreated towards the support level 10501 and settled around it at the beginning of trading today, Thursday. The US currency is still the strongest with expectations of a strong interest rate hike during 2022 by the US Federal Reserve.

The peak of the dollar’s strength has passed, and the euro will show bullish traits in the medium term. New research from French banking giant BNP Paribas shows in a regular monthly briefing on the currency’s future, analysts with the bank say the dollar “may be near its peak” and is now trading “too rich” relative to its long-term fair value as reported by the BNP Paribas FEER model.

“We expect this assessment gap to narrow as central banks outside the US start their tightening cycles while the Fed tightening cycle matures,” says Alexander Zhikov, forex analyst at BNP Paribas in London. Further analysis from BNP Paribas has found that the dollar tends to peak around the start of the Fed’s walking cycle. The results come in the same week as the dollar soared to new multi-year highs, spurred by the promise of a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve and a downturn in global stock markets.

Meanwhile, fears of slowing global growth provide the traditionally supportive backdrop as the counter-cyclical dollar tends to rise. Accordingly, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell as low as 1.0475 and now appears to be stabilizing at levels between 1.05 and 1.06. But these could be lower levels if BNP Paribas is right.

“We expect a significant decline in the US dollar with EUR/USD and AUD/USD rising to 1.14 and 0.80 respectively by the end of the year and USD/JPY dropping to 120,” the bank’s analysts add.

The EUR has a medium-term bullish potential, which indicates that a long streak of losses will fade soon.

Meanwhile, BNP Paribas’ custom STEER model found the largest understatement in the EUR/USD spot rate since the model’s inception. Economists are also now in tune with the possibility of an upcoming rate hike from the European Central Bank, with signs that the move in July is becoming increasingly clear.

The European Central Bank has long favored ultra-low interest rates, but rising inflation has forced a rethink and increasingly Governing Council members are of the view that interest rates should return to above 0%. This normalization would provide some support to the interest rate for the euro, which it has been lacking for a long time. BNP Paribas, for its part, now expects the ECB to raise rates earlier than previously envisaged and see the first increase in September, although the move in July was a close call.

They now expect a cumulative tightening of 175bps through the end of 2023 (50bps more than they previously thought).

With the ECB on course for policy normalization, ultra-cheap valuations and extended short positions in EURUSD (tactically and structurally in our view), we continue to look at the medium-term trend in terms of the upside. We expect the EUR/USD to rise to 1.14 by the end of 2022 and 1.20 by the end of 2023.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: There is no change in my technical view of the performance of the EUR/USD currency pair, as the general trend is still bearish. Breaking the 1.0500 support will increase the chance of further collapse, despite the technical indicators, after the recent losses, reaching oversold levels. Currently, the nearest trend targets are 1.0455 and 1.0300, respectively. On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart, the bulls must launch towards the resistance levels 1.0790 and 1.1000 to confirm the change in the current bearish outlook. The euro is not awaiting any important economic data, and the US dollar will be on a date with the announcement of the US producer price index, one of the tools for measuring US inflation. This is also in addition to announcing the number of weekly unemployed claims.

The pair will likely keep falling as the US dollar strength continues.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 0.7110 and a take-profit at 0.7000.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7225.
• Timeline: 2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 0.7170 and a take-profit at 0.7250.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7100.

The AUD/USD pair crashed to the lowest level since February 22nd even after the strong Australian inflation data. The Australian dollar retreated to the important support at 0.7100 as data showed that consumer prices are still surging.

Aggressive RBA?

Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that inflation rose at a faster pace than expected. The headline CPI rose from 3.5% in the fourth quarter to 2.1% in Q1. That increase was significantly higher than the median estimate of 1.7%.

As a result, the numbers revealed that the CPI rose from 3.5% to 5.1%, which was the highest level in 21 years. Economists poll by Reuters were expecting the number to show that inflation rose by 4.6%. Meanwhile, the trimmed and weighted mean CPIs rose by 3.7% and 3.2%, respectively.

These numbers were higher than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) target of 2.0%. Therefore, analysts expect that the RBA will start talking about rate hikes when it meets next week. Some expect that the bank will actually deliver a gentle 15 basis point rate hike since they believe that it has underestimated the strength of inflation. In the United States, the Fed has been blamed for underestimating inflation last year.

The AUD/USD pair declined after the report because of the stubbornness of the US dollar. The dollar index has been relatively strong as investors focus on the rising global risks. For example, Russia decided to halt natural gas shipments to Poland and Bulgaria. It has insisted that these countries should pay for their gas in rubles. Therefore, there is a likelihood that it will also cut shipments to the rest of Europe soon.

The key catalyst for the AUD/USD pair will be the latest US GDP and initial jobless claims numbers. The consensus is that the American economy expanded by 7.3% in Q1.

AUD/USD Forecast

The AUD/USD continued its bearish trend after the strong Australian inflation data. The decline happened partly because investors were expecting inflation to be strong. It also moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. It has also moved below the first standard of the pivot point.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as the US dollar strength continues. If this happens, the next key support level to watch will be the psychological level at 0.7000.

Amid continuing weakness factors (a strong future for raising US interest rates – the Russian / Ukrainian war – an uncertain future for raising interest rates from the European Central Bank – the strong performance of the US economy compared to the Eurozone economy) the downward trend of the EUR/USD currency pair continues. We said before that the euro might be exposed to more selling once it crossed the 1.0800 psychological support, and it has already happened, as the losses of the most popular currency pair in the Forex market reached the 1.0635 support level, the lowest in two years. It stabilized around it at the beginning of trading Wednesday.

FX analysts at DNB Markets say the euro breakout below $1.08 won’t last long and they expect a steady recovery through the end of the year. So the Scandinavian lender and investment bank says that the EUR is traditionally and structurally not susceptible to the current lows we are currently seeing and that the ECB could soon provide some support via the yield channel.

There is no doubt that DNB Markets is acknowledging the pressures in the near term and is not yet inclined to call for an imminent recovery. In this regard, analyst at DNB Engfield Burgen says that the expected higher interest rates in the United States compared to other major economies, along with its status as a safe haven in times of market turmoil, is the reason behind the strength of the US dollar against other G10 currencies recently.

“This is also evident in the euro against the US dollar, which fell back below 1.08, despite the relief of Emmanuel Macron’s strong victory in the French presidential election on Sunday,” Borgen adds.

To be sure, DNB Markets has identified some investor nervousness embedded in the Eurodollar: they believe that some of the drop in the EUR/USD pair, from 1.11 in mid-March to 1.08 in mid-April, was due to a small “Le”. The pen risk premium is priced in the euro, as Macron’s lead over Le Pen in the polls has narrowed somewhat in this time period. But “the fact that EUR/USD did not recover any of this but fell further after Macron’s victory is in our view emblematic of how sensitive the EUR/USD is currently to the volatility of risk appetite.”

The drop in global stock markets linked to China’s growth concerns with the introduction of Covid lockdowns appears to be a major concern for investors at the moment. These concerns came along with the dollar’s rise to a two-year high.

But DNB Markets maintains the view that EUR/USD will be trading well below 1.08 for an extended period. Accordingly, the analyst adds, “The main reason for this is that the euro against the dollar EUR/USD has never traded, since 2002, at such low levels except for short periods in which monetary policy in the United States and the eurozone moved in two completely opposite directions.”

Moreover, “while the Fed is preparing to tighten policy faster than the ECB, we believe the ECB is ready to start raising interest rates and end quantitative easing later this year, and that this will change investor sentiment toward the euro.” She says that this will further strengthen the euro against the US dollar in the long run. In a 12-month period, DNB Markets has forecast EUR/USD to trade at 1.10.

The general trend of the EUR/USD is still bearish, taking into account that the recent losses were enough to push the technical indicators towards oversold levels, as is evident on the daily chart. The current path, therefore, may be subject to further testing of stronger support levels, the closest of which are currently 1.0580 and 1.0400.

On the other hand, and as I mentioned before, the EUR/USD has to break through the psychological resistance 1.1000 to have an opportunity to break the current descending channel.

The general trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish, 

In the same vicinity of the closing of last week’s trading, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair settled at the beginning of this week’s trading, stable around the 124.50 resistance level, the highest for the currency pair in six years. The US dollar is still enjoying strong momentum from expectations of raising US interest rates and improving performance, on the other hand, the Japanese yen, is being disappointed by the continued support for the Japanese economy to recover from the effects of the epidemic, as well as the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war recently.

The gains of the US dollar against the rest of the other major currencies are important this week with the announcement of US inflation figures and retail sales figures. March may prove to be the highest for US inflation, but price pressures are likely to remain both high and persistent on the back of firmer demand for services and geopolitical risks.

With the annual inflation rate well above the Fed’s 2% target, officials have focused heavily on policy. They are expected to raise US interest rates by half a point in May and begin reducing assets on the central bank’s balance sheet. The Fed last month began what is expected to be a series of interest rate increases to tame inflation, but efforts to cool demand will take time to materialize. While some price pressures that have been particularly hot during the pandemic, such as those for used cars, are beginning to decline, others such as rents threaten to continue to rise.

US consumer prices likely rose 8.4% last month from a year ago, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of data due Tuesday. This would be the fastest annual rate of US inflation since early 1982, and reflects rising energy costs in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The projected monthly gain of 1.2% would be the largest increase since 2005.

Economists expect the inflation rate for the world’s largest economy to stabilize at an average of 5.7% in the fourth quarter. However, this is about three times the annual rate seen in the years leading up to the pandemic. Such forecasts include assumptions that stress in supply chains will begin to subside and that the worst of commodity inflation is coming to an end as Americans shift more of their spending to services. Much of the faster inflation last year was driven by higher prices for goods such as cars and home furnishings, but these expensive items are often one-off purchases.

The Covid lockdown in China is a complicating factor, stressing already fragile supply chains and disrupting ports around the world. In this regard, Fed Governor Lyle Brainard said in a recent speech that she is watching whether service inflation accelerates as consumer demand for goods shifts. Within the CPI, the component that economists care about most is shelter rent, which makes up nearly a third of the overall index. In February, such costs recorded the largest monthly increase since 2005. This may affect how serious the Fed is to tighten monetary policy.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: So far, the general trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish, and investors do not care about the arrival of technical indicators towards overbought levels after the recent strong gains, where the discrepancy in economic performance and the future of monetary policy is still in favor of the US dollar. With the momentum halting, the currency pair may be subjected to a strong profit taking sale, and in general, there will be no change in direction without the currency pair moving below 120.00 – the previous psychological top.

The continuation of the factors for the dollar-yen pair’s gains does not rule out moving with it above the resistance 125.20 and 126.00 again.

During last week’s trading, the price of the EUR/USD currency pair attempted to rebound to the upside. The pair is trying to compensate for its recent sharp losses, which brought it to the threshold of the psychological support level of 1.0800. The attempts to rebound have reached towards the resistance level of 1.1185, and closed the week’s trading stable around the 1.1040 level. Overall, the EUR/USD exchange rate attempted to reverse all the losses it has incurred since the Russian invasion of Ukraine before stopping near a set of technical resistances on the charts which could prevent the EUR’s path higher in the short term.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to dominate the outlook for the trajectory of the EUR/USD. Recently, German statements indicated that Russia has reversed its position. However, a Kremlin spokesman later said that the EU would need to get the Russian ruble in order to make the payments, and with the Kremlin neglecting to move forward immediately in an attempt to force European gas buyers to pay for their imports in rubles, further increases may have been avoided. destabilizing energy prices this week in what was likely to be a supportive development for the EUR.

Commenting on the performance of the euro-dollar Tim Riddell, macroeconomic analyst at Westpac based in London, said, “EUR/USD will remain weak, but support has picked up to the 1.1000-50 region.” USD from closing above 1.1175-90, the odds of a higher trading range will increase and increase the likelihood of retracements towards 1.1475-1.1500.”

Overall, rising inflation has prompted the ECB to prepare the markets for any and all forms of policy action in the coming quarters including a possible decision by the ECB to draw a line in a multi-year era of negative interest rates in the near future. We believe that optimists should realize that there are still reasons to contain the strength of the EUR. The European consumer is still facing a crisis of confidence and energy prices are well above normal levels. In macro terms, there is more to be priced in at the Fed at the expense of the ECB, the eurozone’s trade deficit is likely to widen, and the euro’s FX positions are not short-lived. This is why we expect the EUR to remain under pressure in April.

So far, forex analysts are still warning that there is still a risk of the EUR/USD falling to a multi-year low near 1.08 over the coming months, although they also reiterated their expectation of the single currency recovering to 1.14 by the end of the day. general.

Much of this forecast derives from the expectation that projected increases in US inflation may lead to the Fed moving faster to raise interest rates this year than exceptionally “hard” financial markets have been willing to tolerate. With inflation likely to prompt the European Central Bank to take action, the Euro is likely to be sensitive to the bloc’s inflation numbers especially with the European energy market being hit hard by the Russian war.

I still prefer to sell the EUR/USD from every bullish level as long as the Russo-Ukrainian war continues. The current rebound attempts for the currency pair may not exceed the resistance levels 1.1120 and 1.1200. On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart, the decline of the EUR/USD towards the support at 1.0950 will be important to the expectations of the psychological support at 1.0800.