Today’s recommendation on the USD/TRY

• Risk 0.50%.
• None of yesterday’s buy or sell deals were activated

The best selling entry points

• Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 18.33 levels
• Place the stop loss point and close the lowest support levels 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit with the price moving by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best buy entry points

• Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 17.98 levels
• The best points for placing a stop loss close at 17.74 levels.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit with the price moving by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish Lira

The price of the Turkish lira declined against the dollar, during the early trading today, Thursday, where the pair is trading near the highest levels it recorded during 2022. Negative factors are coming together to put pressure on the price of the lira, given the Turkish Central Bank’s stimulus monetary policy going against the tight monetary policy followed by Central banks around the world. This together with an excessive inflation rate that the country has not seen for about a quarter of a century.

The expectations are still pessimistic as any positive effect of economic data or reports about the country’s economy will be swallowed. The latest reports revealed the recovery of tourism in the country after a period of stagnation that extended from the pandemic during 2020 until the middle of last year, recording good figures for the number of tourists in the country during the current period. It seems that the weakness of the lira is like a general attraction for a large number of tourists, as the number of foreign visitors increased by 53 percent on an annual basis during last July. Despite the good report, in the long term it will not have the great effect necessary to revive the Turkish lira from its weakness.

On the technical level, the USD/TRY rose to its highest level during 2022, the pair traded at the top of a narrow trading range and has been stable within it since the beginning of this week, which is illustrated by the chart. USD/TRY is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages respectively on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a long-term upward trend. The pair also traded above the support levels which are concentrated at the levels of 18.07 and 17.98 respectively, and trading below the resistance levels at 18.16 and 18.33 respectively.

The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still weak as the pair is moving in a generally upward direction. As every decline for the pair represents a good opportunity to buy, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation while maintaining capital management.

Ready to trade our free daily Forex trading signals? We’ve shortlisted the best Forex trading brokers in the industry for you.

There are signs that the United States has already entered a recession, which is like kryptonite for the oil markets.

The WTI Crude Oil market had a relatively positive Independence Day, but it should be noted that volume was a bit thin as most trading was electronic and off hours. That being said, the market has reached the 50-day EMA, and it looks as if it is going to try to make a move higher. If we can break above the high from last week, it’s very possible this market could go to the $120 level.

On the other side of the equation, there is a massive uptrend line sitting just below that is expected. If we were to break down below that level, the market would almost certainly go down to the $100 level, which then would threaten the 200-day EMA. Breaking down below there is a technical trend change, and the market would almost certainly continue to fall in that scenario.

As things stand right now, we have a bit of a fight on our hands. The commodity markets have been falling rather hard for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that global growth is expected to slow down quite significantly. In fact, there are signs that the United States has already entered a recession, which is like kryptonite for the oil markets. That will be especially true with this grade of oil, as it is the main one in the United States.

On the other side of the argument, there has been a serious lack of production for some time, and now the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the United States is down to about 25 days worth of supply. In other words, the US government might be a buyer when nobody else is, keeping the price somewhat elevated. Either way, the longer-term outlook for crude oil based upon the future spread is still positive, so that might be something worth keeping an eye on.

However, price will lead the way, so if that $100 level holds, crude oil will fall, despite some of the other issues involved. On a break above the $115 level, I anticipate that the market will try to go to the $120 level, possibly even higher than that. On that move, we’re starting to talk about breaking out to fresh, new highs, which is still a possibility to a number of factors, not the least of which is that Russia still faces sanctions.

We expect the price to rise in its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -3.08%. It settled at the price of $7.328 per million British thermal units, after rising in trading yesterday by 4.76%.

Natural gas futures advanced for the second day in a row on Wednesday amid expectations of higher demand, Nymex June gas futures gained 25.5 cents on the day and settled at $7,640 per million British thermal units. The July contract rose 26.0 cents to $7.727.

Weather On Demand said the forecast for the next two weeks and beyond requires strong seasonal heat and strong cooling demand in large parts of the southern US providing price support.

Meanwhile, despite outages from spring maintenance, US LNG export volumes remained above 12 billion cubic feet per day in May. As European countries pull back from Russian gas imports in the face of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, US supplies are helping to fill the void.

Some analysts said that cutting off the gas pipeline in Ukraine from Russian supplies flowing to European homes is causing concern and may strengthen the overall background for energy prices.

Although the Ukrainian pipeline operator said it would use another hub and not affect the flow, Russian state-owned oil group Gazprom said gas supplies were down 25% from the day before it was sent through Ukraine, according to a report from the Associated Press. The two countries have been at war since the Russian invasion in late February.

Technically, natural gas is rising amid the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium term along a slope line, supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. We notice the beginning of a positive crossover on the relative strength indicators.

Therefore, our positive expectations surrounding natural gas continue, and we expect the price to rise in its upcoming trading, especially if its stable above the level of 7.368, and targets the first resistance levels at the price of 8.054.

Our expectations remain neutral, waiting for the index’s behavior towards the support level 33,271.90. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight gains in its last sessions, by 0.19%. It gained about 61.75 points, to settle at the end of trading at the level of 33,301.94, after declining in Tuesday’s trading by -2.38%.

Only 11 of the index’s 30 components rose, topped by Visa Inc. in percentage terms. Cl A, which recorded a gain of 6.47%, followed by Microsoft Corp. by 4.81%, and Salesforce Inc. by 2.70%.

Materials, energy, and technology halls led the market gains on Wednesday, while telecom services posted the biggest drop among sectors, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 6.6 basis points to 2.84%.

Russia has reportedly halted natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria because it failed to respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand to pay for energy imports in rubles. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reportedly said the move amounted to “another Kremlin provocation” and called on Moscow to use gas to “blackmail” the bloc.

The US international trade deficit in goods widened to $125.32 billion in March from $106.35 billion in February, according to data from the US Census Bureau, a much larger gap than the $105 billion deficit projected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Exports rose 7.2% in March, while imports rose 11.5%.

US pending home sales fell 1.2% in March, more than the 1% drop expected in a Bloomberg poll and after a 4% drop in February, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Technically, the last index’s consolidation came as a result of its dependence on a major bullish trend line in the medium term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. This is in conjunction with its dependence on the important support level 33,271.90. We notice in the midst of that the emergence of a positive crossover in the relative strength indicators after they reached the areas. The index is oversold with selling operations, which may have gained the index some positive momentum that helped it achieve those slight gains. This is amid the continued negative pressure of its trades below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days, with the dominance of the corrective bearish trend in the short term.

Therefore, our expectations remain neutral, waiting for the index’s behavior towards the support level 33,271.90. If the index breaks this support, it means declaring the continuation of the corrective bearish trend in the coming period in the near term, after which the index will continue to decline, targeting the first support levels at 32,071.40.

We expect the index to return in its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses in its last sessions, by -1.19%, to lose the index towards -413.04 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 34,308.09, after rising by 0.40% in Friday’s trading.

Twenty-six of the index’s 30 components declined in trading on Monday, with the decliners being the most, by percentage, Microsoft Corp. by -3.94%, and American Express Co. by -3.34%, followed by Cisco Systems Inc. by -2.58%.

Technology stocks were pressured by higher bond yields, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising 6.6 basis points, or 2.78%, the highest since Jan. 18, 2019, according to market data from Dow Jones.

The 30-year index rose by 7.5 basis points to 2.82%, the highest level since May 21, 2019. The 10-year and 30-year interest rates rose for their seventh and sixth trading days, respectively.

Returns move in the opposite direction to prices.

Higher bond yields are a headwind for stocks especially technology stocks and other stocks whose valuations are based on expected earnings and cash flow far into the future. Higher yields on risk-free treasuries mean those future inflows are less valuable in present value terms.

Technically, the index based its recent decline on the support of its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, in an attempt to gain positive momentum that might help it recover and rise again. This is with the dominance of the main bullish trend in the medium term, with the beginning of a positive crossover in the relative strength indicators, after it reached oversold areas. It reached in an exaggerated way compared to the movement of the index, but in front of that the corrective bearish trend dominates over the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period.

Therefore, we expect the index to return in its upcoming trading, as long as the main support 34,000 remains intact, to target the important resistance level 35,372.26.

Right now, there is not much flowing into Bitcoin, so I think you have plenty of time before you have to put any money to work.

Bitcoin markets initially pulled back towards the $40,000 level on Friday before bouncing and reaching towards the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is an important technical indicator for cryptocurrency markets because so many traders pay close attention to it. Ultimately, I think this is a market that will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I also recognize that it is going to be all about the Federal Reserve tightening and whether or not it is going to affect risk appetite, so it is likely that the crypto markets will respond in kind.

Looking at this chart, the 50-day EMA has been relatively reliable, but also the 200-day EMA is dropping from here and it looks as if the market is probably going to continue to look at both of these moving averages as a potential barrier to growth. At this point, it looks like we are in a massive consolidation area, with the $45,000 level offering resistance and the $35,000 level offering support. I think at this point we are trying to build up the confidence to break out, but right now it just does look like we have enough momentum. That is the one thing that the market desperately needs: momentum.

The $40,000 level has been like a magnet for price, and I think that will probably continues to be the case. With this being the situation we find ourselves in, I am not overly enthusiastic about getting involved in Bitcoin, but it is at least stabilized and that is the first sign of strength. Ultimately though, it will come down to risk appetite and monetary flows. Right now, there is not much flowing into Bitcoin, so I think you have plenty of time before you have to put any money to work. If we were to break down below the $35,000 level, then it is very likely that this market will wind down to the $30,000 level quickly. Breaking down below there is like opening a major “trapdoor” for the market to plunge much lower. Because of this, I think we have a situation in which range-bound trading might be the way to go going forward, at least until we can get out of this box that I have planted on the chart.