I’m using the 200-Day EMA as a bit of a signal as to which way we’re going.

The S&P 500 Index has pulled back during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise right around the 4300 level. The E-mini contract also has the 200 Day EMA sitting just above there, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we have seen a lot of noisy behavior in this general vicinity. Furthermore, you can make an argument that perhaps the market is a little overbought at this point.

The fundamental situation has not been good. Wall Street continues to start buying stocks every chance it gets since traders are hoping that the Federal Reserve will step off the brakes, giving the opportunity for cheap money to be able to gamble with again. This is the monster that the Federal Reserve has created, and therefore it’s the monster that they must deal with.

If we were to turn around a break above the 200 Day EMA, it would open quite a bit of buying pressure, perhaps sending this market all the way up to the 4500 level. The E-mini contract has been very bullish right along with the underlying index, but at this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of pressure.

Forecast for S&P 500

• If we do break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, then it’s possible that we could pull back to the 4100 level.
• We are going to see a lot of back-and-forth and noisy trading.
• This is a market that I think will continue to move on the latest perception of the Federal Reserve.

Next week we have the problems with the central bank speakers at the Jackson Hole Symposium. They will be doing everything they can to be serious about fighting inflation, so I think we continue to see a lot of chop and back and forth. However, I’m using the 200-Day EMA as a bit of a signal as to which way we’re going. In general, it’s obvious that there is a lot of buying pressure, but at this point in time I don’t think confidence is something that is a for sure deal.

Ready to trade the S&P 500 Forex? We’ve shortlisted the best CFD brokers in the industry for you

This remains a market you need to be very cautious about position sizing.

• Gold markets fell hard Friday as the jobs number came out much stronger than anticipated.
• Because of this, the market looks likely to continue dropping a bit, as the interest rates in America started to climb.
• Remember, interest rates rising typically is bad for gold, because it becomes much easier to hold paper than it is to store physical gold.

Looking at this chart, it’s obvious that the $1800 level is a major resistance barrier, so I think we need to pay close attention to it. If we do break above here, then I think you should start to take a significant look at whether or not gold can continue to go higher. The $1815 level would wipe out the resistance and support candle that we had broken through the $1800 level with, opening up the possibility of the market going much higher. At that point, I think that we could see this market try to reach the 200-day EMA which is sitting just below the $1840 level.

On the downside, if we break down below the lows of the Friday session, it is very likely that we will attempt to get to the $1750 level, perhaps even the $1720 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, but that’s nothing new for gold. Pay attention to the US dollar, and the US Dollar Index, as it tends to have a very negative correlation.

Higher Rates, Lower Gold

The market will continue to be very noisy, but I think the one thing that probably saved gold for the day was the fact that we were heading into the weekend. Ultimately, it’ll be very interesting to see how this plays out because we have been in a very negative trend for a while, but obviously, things could change rather rapidly. Pay close attention to the 10-year note in the United States, because has a major effect on where we go next. Higher rates, lower gold. That’s not always the case, but it seems to be the case at the moment. If we were to break higher, although we could go higher for a longer-term move, it will probably be very noisy and choppy to say the least. Ultimately, this remains a market you need to be very cautious about position sizing.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

I anticipate that we will go much further over the longer term, and you could even go so far as to draw a bit of a channel that we have been trading in as of late.

• The Brazilian real strengthened a bit against the US dollar as the dollar fell to the 5.27 level during the Friday session.
• There is still a significant support level underneath that should continue to elevate the US dollar, especially once you get closer to the 5.25 level.
• This is an area where we had broken out of previously, so we should see buyers coming in to pick this market.
• The Brazilian real is a commodity currency, which is going to be out of vogue in general right now.

Risk Appetite

This is especially true with the Brazilian real because unlike some other commodity currencies, it does not have the benefit of the developed nation status of places such as Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. In other words, people are much more comfortable investing in a place like Australia or in a business that is based in Québec than in South America. Risk appetite is something that favors the Brazilian real, but right now risk appetite is something that has been decimated.

Furthermore, the 50-day EMA is starting to rally a bit, and it looks like we are trying to get back to a “golden cross” when the 50-day EMA breaks above the 200-day EMA. Once that happens, the market is very likely to go looking to reach the 5.40 level again. Breaking above there then allows for the market to go higher, perhaps opening up the possibility of a move to the 5.60 level. Because of this, it’s likely that we will continue to see plenty of “buying on the dip”, especially as interest rates continue to rise in America. I anticipate that we will go much further over the longer term, and you could even go so far as to draw a bit of a channel that we have been trading in as of late.

When you look at the W pattern that we just broke out of, the “measured move” suggests that we are going to the 6.00 level. The 6.00 level is obviously a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it’s likely that we see a bit of reaction to that area. If we were to break out from here, it’s not until we break below the 5.00 level that I would be concerned about the upside.

This is a market that will more than likely continue to offer buying opportunities occasionally.

Bitcoin has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we have gotten a bit overextended. At this point, it looks as if we are going to test the $45,000 level, an area that previously had been major resistance. Furthermore, it is an area that also features the 200 Day EMA, so it does suggest that we could see “market memory” come into play there.

The 50 Day EMA is starting to curl higher and is threatening to break above the 200 Day EMA. This would form the so-called “golden cross”, that a lot of people look to for the longer-term buy-and-hold type of signals. Bitcoin has most certainly made quite a move over the last couple of weeks, and the pullback does make a certain amount of sense. After all, markets do not go straight up in the air forever.

We have the jobs number coming out on Friday, and that will have a major influence on what happens with the US dollar. By extension, it also will have an influence on this market as Bitcoin is measured against the US dollar. If the US dollar rises, it may put a little bit of negative pressure on this market, but only to a point.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, but it does look like we have just kicked off a massive “W pattern”, which suggests that we have further to go to the upside. In fact, the “measured move” suggests that we are going to go to the $55,000 level. This does not mean that it will be easy, but that is what the technical analysis does in fact suggest.

However, if we were to turn around and break down below the $40,000 level, then it could put significant bearish pressure on Bitcoin to drop even further. In that scenario, I anticipate that we go looking to reach the $35,000 level, and a breakdown below there could open up even more fresh selling. Over the next couple of days, I expect to get some type of clarity as to what is happening next, but as things stand right now I still believe this is a market that will more than likely continue to offer buying opportunities occasionally.

At this juncture, I would be cautious with my position size because the gold market tends to be so noisy under the best of circumstances.

Gold markets fell rather hard on Monday to reach down towards the $1920 level. This is an area that begins a significant support barrier all the way down to the $1880 level. It is also worth noting that the 50-day EMA sits in that same general vicinity, so it does suggest that there are buyers underneath that will continue to pick this market up.

If we were to break down below the $1880 level, then it could change a lot of things, but until then it is likely that there will continue to be buyers willing to pick up bits and pieces of value along the way. The candlestick for the day was somewhat negative, but it did not violate support, so that is a good sign. That being said, I think that we will have a lot of noisy trading ahead of us, as we have been banging around in a bit of a channel. Gold still looks relatively healthy, but I do think that we are about to test the support level underneath.

Breaking below that support level would be catastrophic because we have seen such a huge push higher only to give it up. A breakdown below the $1880 level opens up the possibility of a move down to the 200-day EMA. At that point, we would be looking closer to the $1840 level. A breakdown below there could send this market much lower, but that would obviously take a major shift in fundamental attitudes.

Alternately, if we break above the highs of the last couple of trading sessions, it would send the gold market looking towards the $2000 level above. The $2000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that will cause a little bit of noise. That being said, we have already broken above there before, so it is interesting to see how we will behave there. Clearing that area opens up the possibility of a move towards the all-time high again. The area that we are currently in has been noisy and will more than likely continue to be. At this juncture, I would be cautious with my position size because the gold market tends to be so noisy under the best of circumstances.