The most likely scenario is going to be that volatility picks up and eventually we see more selling.

The Ethereum market bounced a bit Wednesday as the market is bouncing from the hammer that had been formed during the Tuesday session. The market looks likely to continue to go back and forth in this general vicinity, but the longer-term trend has not changed. Because of this, I still think you will have plenty of time to build a bigger position, which is my plan from a longer-term standpoint.

A lot could come down to risk appetite, which presently is in the dumps. The market has been very noisy over the last couple of weeks, and although we have seen a bit of a short-term breakout, the reality is that the market has not completely changed the trend at this point. Because of this, the market is likely to see a lot of back and forth, perhaps confusion more than anything else. That being said, I think the $1200 level is underneath, and therefore it’s likely that there will be a bit of interest in that area. If we break down below there, it’s likely that we go down to the $1000 level. If we break it down below the $1000 level, then it’s likely that the $900 level gets targeted.

If we see the market breakdown below the $900 level, things can get rather interesting. At that point, I would anticipate that we could go looking all the way down to the $500 level. It is in that general vicinity that I think you will see longer-term traders come in and build a bigger position. This is my plan, but obviously, there’s no way to predict the future, rather you prepare for it. It is because of this, that if we break above the $1800 level, I will have an eye on the $2000 level which would be the next target. Quite frankly, I don’t see that happening, but it is worth noting that the $2000 level is crucial. If we were to break above there, then the market is likely to continue to go much higher, perhaps entering a “buy-and-hold” scenario.

All of that being said, the most likely scenario is going to be that volatility picks up and eventually we see more selling. However, certainty is the one thing that we most certainly do not have in the crypto markets.

Ready to trade our Ethereum forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best MT4 crypto brokers in the industry for you.

The short-term outlook for the coin is neutral. 

Bearish View

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 19,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 23,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 21,500 and set a take-profit at 23,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 20,000.

The BTC/USD price drifted upwards as the market mood improved. The pair rose above the key resistance level at 21,000 for the first time since last week. The current price is about 20% above the lowest level during the weekend.

Market Mood Improves

Bitcoin had a terrible weekend as its price crashed below $19,000 for the first time since 2020. This decline happened as investors continued worrying about the coin’s demand amid a high-interest rate environment. It also coincided with the worst week for stocks since 2020 as the S&P 500 moved to a bear market.

The BTC/USD pair has risen in the past three straight days as mood among investors started improving. This is evidenced by the fact that the closely watched CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has pulled back sharply this week.

At the same time, stocks are doing well. As Bitcoin held above $21,000, American shares did well, with the Dow Jones rising by more than 600 points. The Nasdaq 100 index, on the other hand, rose by more than 400 points. In the past few months, Bitcoin has had a close correlation with American shares.

The BTC/USD pair is also holding steady as FTX took some measures to stabilize the market. In a statement, the company announced that it was lending $250 million to BlockFi, a crypto lender that has come under strain in the past few days.

Celsius, another cryptocurrency lender, has been forced to suspend withdrawals as it restructures its business. In hopes that the project will bounce back, its cryptocurrency has risen by more than 1,200% in the past few days.

Still, it is unclear whether this recovery will be sustainable in the long term. Some analysts believe that it is a dead cat bounce as investors buy the dip.

BTC/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart reveals that the BTC/USD pair has been attempting its recovery. It has found some resistance at the pivot point. Also, the coin is between the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tilted upwards. The price is also approaching the Ichimoku cloud.

Therefore, the short-term outlook for the coin is neutral. A move above the resistance level at 22,000 will be positive and signal that there are still more buyers in the market. At the same time, a drop below 20,000 cannot be ruled out. If this happens, Bitcoin will retest the weekend low of below 18,000.

This is a market that is going to be very noisy, so you need to be cautious with your position size as I expect volatility is going to pick up.

The DAX fell initially on Wednesday but found enough buyers underneath to show signs of life again. By doing so, the market looks likely to continue to find value hunters, as the €14,400 level has offered significant support. The candlestick for the day is a bit of a hammer, so it does suggest that we could have more upward pressure, but the 200-day EMA will more likely than not offer a significant amount of resistance.

If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, that opens up the possibility of a move down to the 50-day EMA, which is currently sitting near the €14,100 level and curling higher. It had been previous dynamic resistance, so it should now be dynamic support. We are currently between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, which is typically very noisy. It does make a certain amount of sense due to the fact that the entire economic system is currently all over the place. After all, we need to worry about whether or not inflation and global demand will continue to be difficult for risk appetite.

If we were to break down below the 50-day EMA, we will probably attempt to get down to the €14,000 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If we were to break down below there, then it’s likely that the market could go down to the €13,300 level. The market certainly looks as if it is trying to break out and make a bigger move, but there are so many negative places above that I think even if we do rally, it’s going to be very difficult for this market to rally for a bigger move. In fact, the €15,000 level is an area that I think will attract a lot of attention due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen previous support, meaning that there should be a significant amount of “market memory” at that region. This is a market that is going to be very noisy, so you need to be cautious with your position size as I expect volatility is going to pick up.

We have been in a downtrend for quite some time so it makes sense that we would see a continuation.

The German DAX index broke down significantly on Wednesday as the €14,250 level continues to offer significant resistance. This is an area where we have seen selling pressure previously, so it is not a huge surprise to see that we had pulled back. Furthermore, the 50-day EMA has been resistant as well, so it all ties together quite nicely.

What is also worth noticing is that we close at the bottom of the candlestick, and it suggests that we are going to see even more selling pressure. Typically, when a candlestick closes at the very bottom of the daily range, there is a bit of follow-through. At this point, I am looking for a move down to the €13,500 level over the next several candlesticks, and I believe that short-term rallies will probably be sold into at the first signs of exhaustion. The DAX is the main index for the European Union, so you need to understand that it is a great proxy for the entire region. It is the first place that money goes flying to, and it tends to lead the rest of the indices either higher or lower.

That being said, if the situation gets worse in the European Union, other indices will get sold rather hard. On the other hand, if we start to see a bit of a turnaround, the DAX is the first place that people put money to so it is also the first place that people start to see a rally. At this point, it is likely that we will continue to see the global economic situation have a part to play as well, as Germany is such a major exporter. In fact, most of the major movers of the DAX index are multinational exporters, so they cannot escape what we may find in other parts of the world.

Regardless, we have been in a downtrend for quite some time so it makes sense that we would see a continuation. Indices around the world have been hammered, and for what it is worth, American indices sold into the close, so that typically means that the Europeans will take their cue from that as well. I do not see a turnaround happening, but if we broke above the €14,250 level, we would more likely than not be a very bullish move.

There is a likelihood that the coin’s price will continue falling as bears target the key support at $0.4340.

Bearish View

• Sell Cardano and set a take-profit at $0.40.
• Add a stop-loss at $0.6450.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at $0.6065 and a take-profit at $0.7435.
• Add a stop-loss at $0.500.

Cardano price has been in a spectacular sell-off as concerns about the crypto industry continues. The ADA/USD pair has declined from an all-time high of over $3 to today’s $0.5600. As a result, the coin’s market cap has crashed by more than $91 billion to today’s $18 billion. This decline has been worse than other big cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Cardano Sell-Off Accelerates

Cardano is a leading blockchain project that was established in 2015 by Charles Hoskinson, a co-founder of Ethereum. The network’s goal is to help developers build decentralized applications (dApps) such as those in the gaming, metaverse, and DeFi industry.

However, while Cardano is a highly popular blockchain network, it has several challenges beneath the surface. For one, it took more about 6 years for the project to introduce smart contract features. In this period, some projects like Cronos and Avalanche were launched and achieved success.

At the same time, Cardano’s ecosystem is relatively small. For example, while Cardano has a market cap of over $18 billion, its DeFi applications have a TVL of just $137 million. Therefore, there have been lingering questions about the network for a while.

Cardano price declined sharply last week as Terra Luna moved from one of the biggest coins in the world to the biggest bust. A coin that was once valued at over $65 billion is now valued at $1 billion. Its stablecoin has lost its peg and is now trading at cents. Therefore, some analysts believe that Cardano’s lack of ecosystem could push it sharply lower.

Like other coins, the ADA/USD pair has bounced back in the past few days. It has moved from last week’s low of $0.4086 to a high of $0.6056. However, there are signs that this bear market rally could be short-lived.

Cardano Price Prediction

The ADA price managed to move below the important support level at $0.7435, which was the lowest level on February 24th. While the coin has made some gains, it remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the money flow index (MFI) has moved to the oversold level. The coin formed an inverted cup and handle pattern.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the coin’s price will continue falling as bears target the key support at $0.4340. On the flip side, a move above this week’s high of $0.6200 will invalidate the bearish view.

I still believe that we have more upward momentum than down.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market pulled back a bit on Monday as we continue to see a lot of volatility in the markets overall. The $110 level continues to be a bit of a barrier, but so does the downtrend line in this massive triangle that I have drawn on the chart. Because of this, I think we will continue to see more choppy behavior than anything else.

Underneath, the 50-day EMA continues to offer support, and I think at this point it is only a matter of time before we see buyers come back into this market somewhere near there. Underneath, the uptrend line comes into the picture to offer support as well, so I think this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but there are plenty of buyers underneath that should step in given half a chance. That being said, it is also worth noting that there are a lot of concerns when it comes to whether or not there is going to be a lot of demand, as the global economy seems to be slowing down. With that being said, the oil demand could drop, but as things stand right now, I still believe that we have more upward momentum than down.

Because of this, some type of pullback that shows signs of support will be used as an entry as far as I can tell. I think the 50-day EMA also shows the overall attitude of the market quite nicely, as we continue to see a lot of supply and demand disruptions in both directions depending on which part of the world, and then whether or not the economic activity is going to pick up.

There is a slightly negative influence on this market due to a stronger US dollar, but at the end of the day, that is a relatively minor factor. If we can finally break above the $110 level, then it is likely that we could send this market to much higher levels, perhaps the $120 level. The action on Monday shows that it will not be easy to make that happen. Alternately, if we were to break down below the $98 level, I think that could open up quite a bit of selling pressure.

The pair’s downward trend will continue in the coming days. However, a short pullback to about 1.0756 cannot be ruled out.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0700 and a take-profit at 1.0750.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0600.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0630 and a take-profit at 1.0550.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0750.

The EUR/USD pair continued its bearish trend as the strength of the US dollar continued. The pair crashed to a low of 1.0645, which was the lowest level since March 2020. The euro also declined against other currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

King Dollar Strength Continues

A main theme in the market this week has been the strength of the US dollar. The dollar index jumped to a high of 102.23, which was the highest level since 2020. The currency rallied against most currencies, including the British pound, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar.

The dollar rallied as tensions between western countries and Russia rose. On Tuesday, Russia threatened that it would deliver proportionate attacks if Ukraine attacks targets in Russia. At the same time, Germany said that it had reduced its Russian oil imports dramatically since the war started. It also said that it could reduce the volume of oil that it buys from Russia further.

The EUR/USD declined even after the relatively mixed data from the US. According to the US, new home sales declined from 835k in February to 763k in March. This decline was worse than the median estimate of 765k. However, additional numbers revealed that home prices kept rising. Precisely, the house price index rose by 2.1% on a MoM basis and by 19.4% on a YoY basis.

The most important data published was on consumer confidence. With inflation surging, the country’s consumer confidence declined from 107.6 to 107.3. Analysts were expecting that confidence rose to 108.0.

Therefore, as American data continues to disappoint, there is a possibility that the Fed will start thinking about slowing the tightening process. The key events to watch today will be the German consumer confidence and a speech by Christine Lagarde.

EUR/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD pair continued its bearish trend this week. The pair has crossed the important support level at 1.0756, which was the lowest level this month. At the same time, it has dropped below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. Oscillators have moved below the oversold level.

Therefore, the pair’s downward trend will continue in the coming days. However, a short pullback to about 1.0756 cannot be ruled out.

I would be very cautious about jumping “all in” right away.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell a bit on Friday as we continue to see a lot of back-and-forth trading. This suggests that perhaps the market is going to continue to grind around and try to figure out where to go next. When markets impress like this, it is very likely that you are going to see a huge move in one direction or the other. The 50-day EMA is sitting just below, and that is an area that a lot of people would be paying close attention to.

Just above, you have a huge downtrend line that comes into the picture, but that is going to be a short-term resistance barrier. At this point, if you see the market break above there, then we could have a run to reach the $110 level rather quickly. The $110 level is a large, round, psychologically significant level, and an area where we have already seen sellers jump back into the market. While we have not made it to break out to that area yet, it would not be overly surprising considering that the most recent low seems to be held up by the 50-day EMA.

The alternate scenario is that the market breaks down below the 50-day EMA, which is essentially the same thing as the $100 level. By breaking down below the $100 level, it opens up the possibility of a move down to the uptrend line that I have marked on the chart. That is your last line of defense for the buyers, and think that the oil market will go looking to the $90 level rather quickly. After that, then you could threaten the 200-day EMA which is roughly $5 below there.

You can see that we have been coiling for some time, so the next move that we get should be rather explosive in one direction or another. That being said, the market seems to be taking its sweet time to get there. When you look at this chart, you can see that choppiness continues to be a major issue, so you are more likely than not going to need to trade shorter-term charts more than anything else. I would be very cautious about jumping “all in” right away.