The USD/BRL has produced another round of head scratching trading results, as it finished yesterday near technical lows.

The USD/BRL traded near value last seen in the middle of June as it ended yesterday’s Forex session near the 5.0285 ratio. On the 25^th of August the USD/BRL currency pair found itself trading near the 5.1420 mark, but by Friday the USD/BRL actually started to decline in value. This came on the heels of the central bank policy speeches from the U.S in Jackson Hole which seemingly had little effect on the USD/BRL.

This weekend’s televised debate for President of Brazil also seemed to have little effect on the temperament of investment houses. The prospect of a left leaning political leader taking the realms of Brazil has not flustered the value of the USD/BRL as of yet. The election will be held on the first Sunday of October, and if a majority 50% plus winner is not produced the second round for President will be held the last Sunday of October. Technically the USD/BRL is hovering near very important support.

The 5.0000 Level is within Sight, but Support could prove to be lower

Speculatively the USD/BRL has produced a rather astonishing move lower while many other major currencies paired against the USD struggle to attain value.  The USD/BRL was trading near 5.5100 on the 21^st of July and has incrementally moved lower since then. However, it must be pointed out that on the 10^th of August the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.0400, but then moved higher and touched a ratio of nearly 5.2120 on the 19^th of August. However, the bearish trend is rather startling.

• Today’s opening in the USD/BRL should be monitored. If there is no gap upwards it could be a signal additional selling pressure could be demonstrated.
• If a gap higher is produced on the opening and the USD/BRL is suddenly testing the 5.0350 level, traders may believe it is an opportunity to look for quick hitting moves upwards.

The Strong Trajectory Lower in the USD/BRL Remains Suspicious but the Trend has been Durable

Speculators will have an opportunity to wager on the short term range of the USD/BRL, if it can remain within a calm range.  The opening should be watched for sudden potential gyrations. The USD/BRL continues to look like it has been overbought, but the trend which has been produced technically leaves little to argue, and if the 5.0000 were to prove vulnerable a move towards the 4.9700 level would not be a complete shock. Traders should look for quick hitting trades and have their risk management working today.

Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance:  5.0395

Current Support:  5.0157

High Target: 5.0796

Low Target:  4.9723

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• The BTC/USD continues to go back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to hang around the $21,500 level.
• The market is likely to continue to see a bit of hesitation, and ironically enough, I think that cryptocurrency is waiting to see what central banks are going to do.

This is the exact opposite of what crypto is supposed to be doing because when everybody gets excited about Bitcoin, it was supposed to be a way to break away from central banks. However, the institutions have entered the marketplace, and therefore it does make quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see Bitcoin behave more like a traditional asset. Bitcoin is pretty far out on the wrist spectrum, so we need to see risk appetite rally in order to make a bigger move.

Market Likely to See Resistance

Looking at the start, I think it is worth noting that the 50 Day EMA is just above and dropping. In other words, the market is likely to see resistance above anyway. Furthermore, the $24,000 level is going to continue to be important, right along with the $25,000 level. If we can break above all of that, then we will test the next consolidation area that starts at the $28,000 level. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, it is likely that we could continue to go much higher in a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation.

The $20,000 level underneath being broken to the downside would open up the possibility of further selling, perhaps opening up a move down to the $12,000 level. The $12,000 level is where we started this bullish run to begin with, so I do think that there will be a lot of interest in buying Bitcoin in that region if we were to get down there. I would certainly be willing to jump in and start buying and building up a bigger position in that general vicinity. That being said, we are waiting to see what Jerome Powell says during the Jackson Hole symposium to give us a bit of a “heads up” as to what the Federal Reserve is going to do going forward. Quite frankly, Bitcoin needs to see monetary policy loosen up a bit to really get going to the upside.

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Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buy or sell transactions of yesterday were activated

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

USD/TRY Technical Analysis

The lira stabilized without changes in the price of the USD/TRY currency pair as the pair is trading within a very narrow range. This is amid the absence of influential data from inside Turkey during the day, as well as the clear interference by the Central Bank of Turkey to control the price of the dollar against the lira. Investors followed reports on the Russian-Turkish consensus on the adoption of the local currency in the trade exchange between the two countries. The two sides agreed to pay part of Turkey’s natural gas imports in Russian rubles, which may contradict a series of Western sanctions against Moscow. In the same context, a report from the American Newsweek magazine stated that the percentage of Turkish real estate sales to Russian citizens increased during the current year, so that the Russians topped the purchases of real estate in Turkey before the Iranians and Iraqis. It is noting the lack of significant economic impact, especially amid the country’s suffering of inflation levels that have not been recorded for nearly 25 years.

The economic situation is not expected to improve significantly in light of the Turkish Central Bank’s adherence to a stimulus policy in exchange for monetary tightening in the United States, which raises the value of the dollar.

Turkish Lira Technical Analysis

The US dollar against the Turkish lira settled within the same narrow trading range shown on the chart. The pair traded the highest levels of support, which are concentrated at the levels of 17.85 and 17.75, respectively. While the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.07, respectively. The pair is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the long-term bullish trend. The chance of the lira rising against the dollar is still slim as the pair is heading in an overall bullish trend. As each decline of the pair represents a good buying opportunity, please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, with the need to maintain capital management.

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It’s all short-term trading at this point, so you need to be cautious about overstaying your welcome.

• The EUR/USD currency pair went back and forth Tuesday as nobody really knows what to do with themselves at this point.
• Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility, but you should also pay close attention to the fact that we have been stuck in a range.
• Because of this, it’s possible that we will continue to see that be the case, so you will have to look at the short-term charts more than anything else.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The 1.01 level underneath is a significant support level on short-term charts, as we have seen a lot of buying pressure in that general vicinity. The market has broken through there previously but found the parity level to be far too supportive to break down below it. On the other hand, the 1.03 level has been important previously as resistance, and of course, we have even more importance on the 1.04 level as it has a lot of “market memory” attached to it.

The 1.04 level has previously been supported previously, so now it should be resistance. You’ll notice that I have it marked on the chart, and it should be an area of extreme difficulty digging above. Even if we break above there, the 1.06 level needs to be broken above in order to change the overall trend. I don’t see that happening anytime soon, mainly due to the fact that the European Union has a whole host and litany of problems, not the least of which will be energy supply.

That being said, in the short term I think we probably do bounce because the market does not look like it’s ready to completely break down. Watch interest rates in the United States, because if they start to spike again, that might be reason enough to send this market much lower. On the other hand, if they start to fall, that might give a little bit of a reprieve to the euro, at least for the short term. The 50-day EMA also has offered a significant amount of technical resistance a couple of times, so that is something worth paying attention to. Either way, it’s all short-term trading at this point, so you need to be cautious about overstaying your welcome.

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For four trading sessions in a row, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair is settling in a narrow range between the support level of 131.73 and the resistance level of 133.90. It settled around the level of 133.11 at the time of writing the analysis. The currency pair may remain moving in a narrow range until the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week. The importance of the minutes is due to the fact that the markets and investors derive from it the date and amount of raising US interest rates in the coming months.

Dollar-Yen Economic Outlook

A measure of manufacturing health in the United States recorded its second largest decline ever, in a sign of the continued slowdown in American activity. However, the scale of the collapse has led some economists to question the outcome. The New York Empire State Headline Index for August read -31.30. The market was looking for a slowdown from 11.10 to 5.50 June.

The market slump is the second largest drop in the survey going back to 2001.

The US has recorded two consecutive quarters of growth, thus meeting the common definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research which tells the US government’s reading of the state of the economy says those benchmarks are too simplistic and should still call a recession.

Pantheon Macroeconomics says the result means other regional surveys will be watched with increased interest in the wake of the New York shock. The survey also offered some optimism, particularly regarding inflation. The price-paid component fell by 8.8 points, thanks in large part to lower oil prices.

Inflation expectations are very important to the outlook for the US economy, Fed policy and the outlook for the US dollar. Indeed, there were hopes that the US economy had experienced peak inflation with the July key rate rising 8.5% in the year to July, dropping to less than 9.1% in June and consensus forecast for a reading of 8.7%. Core US CPI rose 5.9% in the year to July, unchanged in June, but less than the 6.1% consensus was looking for. The US dollar fell as investors bet that peak inflation might be over, thus reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to pursue a strict policy of raising interest rates.

In the event that peak inflation is indeed surpassed, the assumption that the Fed will slow will persist, making it difficult for the dollar to push towards new highs.

Dollar against Japanese Yen Forecast

There is no change in my technical view for the performance of the USD/JPY currency pair on the daily chart.

• The currency pair is in a relatively neutral performance, and the bias will be bullish if it returns to move towards the resistance levels 134.20 and 135.00, respectively. 
• The dollar-yen pair’s move towards the support level 131.55 will have a strong impetus to retreat to the vicinity of the psychological support 130.00.
• The currency pair will be affected today by the announcement of housing and industrial production data in the United States.

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The USD/INR has offered speculators a rather interesting technical opportunity the past week, but conditions remain volatile and can produce sudden surprises.

As of this writing the USD/INR is trading near the 79.6100 level.  If a speculator had gone away for a week and had not looked at the price of the USD/INR currency pair, they could assume not much has taken place the past five trading days. However, the USD/INR has produced a rather intriguing range. A low of nearly 79.0000 was achieved on the 10^th of August, which actually stayed above lows seen on the 5^th of August when the USD/INR came within sight of 78.9000.

The USD/INR Remains in a Rather Steady Range and Also within its Upper Price Realms

Some speculators may look at the USD/INR and take into consideration the Forex pair remains within the upper boundaries of its bullish trend. Certainly the values of the USD/INR remain elevated taking into consideration its long term chart. Also, in the short term the USD/INR has increased and remains within sight of the 80.0000 mark which may be a rather important psychological barometer for the health of the USD/INR in the minds of financial houses.

August Trading Results Sometimes Prove to be ‘Artificial’ and USD/INR should be Alert

Traders who are keen to try and wager on further upside action however, technically can see resistance levels within the current range have been durable. One of the problems for traders is ‘trusting’ the results and wondering if the value of the USD/INR is suddenly going to produce volatile price action.

The month of August is a relatively quiet month of trading globally, so speculators should remain conservative and be ready for unexpected gyrations. If a sudden breakout were to occur, chances are that equilibrium would be found again.

• Resistance near the 79.7000 to 79.7500 continues to look durable, short term wagers on upside should monitor these values as targets perhaps.
• Support near the 79.4400 mark should be watched, anything below this depth could spark some bullish speculative buying.

The range of the USD/INR looks to be a worthwhile speculative playground, but traders need to make sure their risk management is in full use. Attempting to pick off incremental ups and downs within the current market conditions as long as support and resistance levels remain durable, may be a chance to wager on small changes in value from the USD/INR. However, sudden volatile spikes are always possible. Traders need to use entry price orders and have a targeted goal in mind to capture.

USD/INR Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 79.6600

Current Support: 79.5690

High Target: 79.7910

Low Target: 79.4400

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I think we have to be cautious about trying to get long, but I think short-term selling opportunities will continue to present themselves in the meantime. 

• The EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade in a tight range, as Friday saw more selling pressure.
• This was mainly in reaction to the jobs number in the United States coming out better than anticipated.
• The reaction was negative for the Euro as traders began to bet that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten.
• This obviously is good for the US dollar, as the market will have to pay close attention to the interest rates and whether or not they continue to go higher.

Anticipating a Range Breakout

The 1.01 level underneath has offered quite a bit of support, while the 1.03 level above has offered resistance. I think that continues to be the situation here, as the market will continue to be very choppy. That being said, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see this market have to break out. If we were to break out of this range, that could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to where we’re going next. Breaking down below the bottom of this range opens up the possibility of a move down to the parity level, which has seen a lot of noise previously.

On the other hand, if we were to see the market break above the 1.03 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the 1.04 level, possibly even the 1.05 level. At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of selling pressure, but we need to have some type of catalyst to make the Euro suddenly spike. It seems very unlikely it’s going to happen anytime soon, so I think you should continue to see selling on short-term rallies, and at the first signs of exhaustion.

Sooner or later, we will have some type of bigger move, but right now it does not look like the pair is ready to do so. Regardless, we have been in a downtrend for quite some time so there’s no need to think that we are suddenly going to change. With this, I think we have to be cautious about trying to get long, but I think short-term selling opportunities will continue to present themselves in the meantime. Anything below the parity level on a daily close would be rather drastic for the Euro, sending the market much lower.

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The USD/ZAR has stayed within the lower depths of its five day range and the consolidated price action may create speculative potential for traders.

The USD/ZAR opened its trading early this morning by testing lows again, but actually creating incrementally higher support via a short term technical perspective per its results. The USD/ZAR currency pair touched the 16.41560 ratio to start the day, put in a reversal higher, and then plunged lower again – but this time around only hit the 16.43650 vicinity approximately. As of this writing the USD/ZAR is trading near the 16.56500 mark with rather quick results.

Last Week’s Volatility Shows Signs of Consolidation, but Do Not be Fooled

Trading the last three days of the week produced rather dramatic reactions via the USD/ZAR as the currency pair was hit by dynamic shifts in behavioral sentiment. Except for all of its bluster and ability to trade lower, which brought the USD/ZAR to a low of nearly 16.39000 momentarily on 29^th of July, the pair remains within the higher realms of its long term trading range. Yes, it has sold off and the lower part of its short term realms are being tested, but the USD/ZAR has not escaped the clutches of its bullish mode when a six month chart is examined.

Behavioral Sentiment Shift Geared towards Selling may Take Time to Build

Traders expected to capture selling momentum cannot be blamed, but the direction of the USD/ZAR may prove more complicated than a mere tumble downwards.  The bullish trend of the USD/ZAR has been strong and support levels may prove more durable than anticipated by many. The USD/ZAR is not likely to accelerate to fresh lows instantaneously; it may have to happen via rather challenging choppy conditions. The consolidated range of the USD/ZAR should be tested carefully. Resistance levels near the 16.56000 to 16.58000 ratios should be watched. If they are broken higher, this will cause nervousness.

• If short term resistance levels near the 16.56000 to 16.58000 prove durable over the next couple of days this could be a bearish signal.
• Risk taking tactics while looking for downside momentum may prove worthwhile, but stop loss orders should be considered.

The near term for the USD/ZAR may produce more selling, but traders should not become overly ambitious.  Plenty of risks are still lurking in the shadows regarding the global economic landscape, which could affect the USD/ZAR quickly and cause a buying trajectory to suddenly emerge. However, if Forex and other financial markets remain calm in the short term, selling the USD/ZAR could prove to be a solid wager, but as always it will carry risks.

USD/ZAR Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 16.57100

Current Support: 16.51500

High Target: 16.65600

Low Target: 16.40500

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We expect the price to decline from the current levels before rising again.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy trade of the day’s recommendation has been activated and is still trading

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels 17.45
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 16.63 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.28.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 16.99

The Turkish lira’s movements have stabilized after strong movements since the end of last week, as government decisions were issued aimed at preventing lending to Turkish companies that have a certain amount of cash, which is equivalent to 15 million liras. As these decisions contributed to raising the price of the lira against the dollar by about 5 percent over several days, before the lira began to lose its gains after reports from Western banks showing the extent of the damage that could befall the Turkish economy as a result of these decisions, especially with the damage that will occur. Meanwhile, a report published by Reuters today showed that the head of the country’s insurance group discussed the issuance of inflation-linked bonds with the Turkish Treasury. The country is facing the largest rate of inflation recorded in nearly a quarter of a century, especially with the rise in energy imports.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira stabilized against the US dollar, as the pair returned to trading in a narrow range. At the same time, the pair settled above the support levels that are concentrated at 16.48 and 16.25 levels, respectively. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.77 and 17.10, respectively. The pair also traded between the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a short-term divergence. While the pair continues trading above the moving average 50 on the time frame of the day. At the same time, the pair is trading at strong resistance levels represented by 50 Fibonacci levels on the descending wave that started from 06-24-2022 until the top recorded on 06-27-2022. We expect the price to decline from the current levels before rising again from the levels specified in the recommendation. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

XRP/USD has come off of highs in the past day of trading, and the cryptocurrency also remains locked within a rather suspicious and seemingly nervous price range.

XRP/USD is trading a touch above the 36 cents level in early trading today.  In early action yesterday Ripple approached the 37 and half cents level, but was not able to actually touch the value. After flirting with its near term high, which had not been seen since the 24^th of June, XRP/USD began to selloff. It should be noted by technical traders that XRP/USD did hit the 38 and three/quarter cents level on the 24^th of June.

However, before hitting this high water mark on the 24^th, on the 23^rd of June XRP/USD was barely trading above the 32 cents ratio.  Ripple remains one of the biggest digital assets in the cryptocurrency speculative world and its results the past week of trading mirror the broad market.

Yesterday’s inability to hold onto its higher price range highlights that trading conditions remain nervous. Profit taking may have been a large part of yesterday’s price action, but it is also possible that bearish traders believed yesterday’s highs were a solid place to set speculative selling positions and look for reversals lower.

If XRP/USD is not able to sustain its value above the 36 cents level short term, this could be a signal additional selling could develop in Ripple. Trading within XRP/USD has been rather consolidated the past few days when a one month chart is considered, and it is clear Ripple is traversing values within the middle of its one month range.

The ability of XRP/USD to climb off of lows seen on the 18^th of June, when the cryptocurrency traded below 29 cents momentarily is not a distant memory. Traders likely remain nervous about strong selling conditions suddenly reappearing again, and they cannot be blamed.

Speculative bullish traders looking for more upside momentum to develop should probably keep their targets within a realistic range. If the 36 cents mark holds in the short term, traders may be tempted to look for price action that looks for quick hitting trades seeking the 0.36250 to 0.36500 levels. However, unless serious price velocity is demonstrated, traders may want to consider values above these marks as an opportunity to look for reversals lower once again.

If the 36 cents level falters in the short term and the 0.35960 ratio is flirted with, this could be interpreted as a negative sign. A fall below the 0.35690 mark would be a negative indicator for XRP/USD and could mean nervous sentiment is about to raise its ugly head again with more selling pressure.

Ripple Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.36450

Current Support: 0.35960

High Target: 0.37690

Low Target: 0.35280