The BTC/USD has been very quiet during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to hang around the $21,000 region. At this point, the market is likely to see a bit of hesitation until we get through the Jackson Hole Symposium. This is because various central bank speakers will be bloviating on what they are going to do next, in the fight against inflation. While many crypto traders have no idea, the reality is that whatever happens in the fiat world greatly influences what happens in the crypto world.

If monetary policy tightens, which is essentially what all central banks have been suggesting, it will work against risk-taking, and therefore work against the value of Bitcoin. After all, Bitcoin needs to see a lot of risk appetite to go higher. The massive selloff from 4 days ago suggests that we are going to see further downside momentum. If we break down below the $20,000 level, it’s likely that we would continue to go much lower. If we were to break down below that level, could open up a move all the way down to the $12,000 level, which has been a longer-term target for quite a few traders.

Market Struggles to Go Higher

• The 50-Day EMA sits just above, and it should offer quite a bit of resistance as well. The Bitcoin market is one that I would look to fade rallies at the first signs of exhaustion because the $25,000 level has offered quite a bit of resistance.
• After that, the market could go to the $28,000 level, which extends to the $32,000 level. It’s not until we break through all of that that I would consider the overall trend of the market changed.
• Because of this, it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of hesitation to go higher, so fading rallies probably work.

If and when we finally get down to the $12,000 level, at that point I would start to build a longer-term position as we could enter an accumulation phase. Bitcoin has done this before, fallen quite drastically and then did nothing for a couple of years before taking off. I don’t know that we are done selling off, because I don’t think that the risk appetite has returned strongly enough to send the market much higher.

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The USD/INR has been able to sustain the higher values it established in the middle of last week and speculators will continue to be tested.

The Indian Rupee continues to lose ground to the USD in Forex and as of this morning a value of 79.8700 is being demonstrated.  Speculative conditions are ripe within the USD/INR currency pair as higher price action is likely causing technical traders to wonder if the 80.0000 mark is going to be challenged again. In the middle of July the USD/INR was able to trade above the 80.0000 reaching an apex of nearly 80.2200 temporarily on the 14^th of the month.

Even if the USD/INR is overbought it could go higher via Speculative Conditions

The middle of last week shook the USD/INR from a seemingly polite trading range, in which reversals lower were starting to signal evidence that the long term bullish streak from the forex pair might be slowing.  The short term trend however was proven wrong and nervous sentiment emerged again within financial institutions as whispers about more hawkish U.S Federal Reserve policy was discussed.

The publication of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes report last week indicated there is a disagreement within the U.S central bank regarding future steps to combat inflation. Troubling for traders is the fact the USD/INR is now within sight of all-time highs again, and that more fundamental news sparks will fly later this week.

Jackson Hole Talks and Preliminary GDP from U.S will affect the USD/INR this Week

The major central banks of the world this week will be getting together in Jackson Hole, Wyoming which is a symposium for financial heavyweights to discuss monetary policy. On Friday Fed Chairman Powell will speak. And before this, Thursday, the U.S will publish Preliminary GDP data. In other words traders of the USD/INR need to expect more volatility.

• If the 17.9000 mark is toppled and higher value is sustained the USD/INR could again challenge the 18.0000 in the near term.
• Behavioral sentiment is likely to remain nervous because of volatility which is certain to be caused because of policy speeches and economic data from the U.S later this week.

Traders of the USD/INR may be tempted to believe the forex pair has climbed too high and may attempt to sell. However, reversals lower in the short term will likely remain limited. Quick hitting trades are advised which are not overly ambitious today and tomorrow.

A vast sea of volatility will be demonstrated in the USD/INR later this week and risk management will be essential. The trend higher in the USD/INR may be hard to wager on for contrarians, but if support levels are tested in the short term looking for small moves upwards could prove worthwhile.

USD/INR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 79.9050

Current Support: 79.8300

High Target: 80.0300

Low Target: 79.7100

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The USD/INR has offered speculators a rather interesting technical opportunity the past week, but conditions remain volatile and can produce sudden surprises.

As of this writing the USD/INR is trading near the 79.6100 level.  If a speculator had gone away for a week and had not looked at the price of the USD/INR currency pair, they could assume not much has taken place the past five trading days. However, the USD/INR has produced a rather intriguing range. A low of nearly 79.0000 was achieved on the 10^th of August, which actually stayed above lows seen on the 5^th of August when the USD/INR came within sight of 78.9000.

The USD/INR Remains in a Rather Steady Range and Also within its Upper Price Realms

Some speculators may look at the USD/INR and take into consideration the Forex pair remains within the upper boundaries of its bullish trend. Certainly the values of the USD/INR remain elevated taking into consideration its long term chart. Also, in the short term the USD/INR has increased and remains within sight of the 80.0000 mark which may be a rather important psychological barometer for the health of the USD/INR in the minds of financial houses.

August Trading Results Sometimes Prove to be ‘Artificial’ and USD/INR should be Alert

Traders who are keen to try and wager on further upside action however, technically can see resistance levels within the current range have been durable. One of the problems for traders is ‘trusting’ the results and wondering if the value of the USD/INR is suddenly going to produce volatile price action.

The month of August is a relatively quiet month of trading globally, so speculators should remain conservative and be ready for unexpected gyrations. If a sudden breakout were to occur, chances are that equilibrium would be found again.

• Resistance near the 79.7000 to 79.7500 continues to look durable, short term wagers on upside should monitor these values as targets perhaps.
• Support near the 79.4400 mark should be watched, anything below this depth could spark some bullish speculative buying.

The range of the USD/INR looks to be a worthwhile speculative playground, but traders need to make sure their risk management is in full use. Attempting to pick off incremental ups and downs within the current market conditions as long as support and resistance levels remain durable, may be a chance to wager on small changes in value from the USD/INR. However, sudden volatile spikes are always possible. Traders need to use entry price orders and have a targeted goal in mind to capture.

USD/INR Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 79.6600

Current Support: 79.5690

High Target: 79.7910

Low Target: 79.4400

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The USD/INR touched new highs in early trading today as the currency pair continues to show signs of its bullish trend remaining strong.

Speculators of the USD/INR may be tempted to wager against the upside action the currency pair is attaining. However, under the present trading conditions of the USD/INR, selling positions should not be overly ambitious. Speculators shorting the USD/INR should only hope to pocket quick hitting profits based on the notion that reversals downward could prove to be temporary. Seeking a strong move lower could prove expensive short term.

Record Prices may Have Additional Roam to Traverse Higher Near Term for USD/INR

Traders who are simply looking to buy the USD/INR do need to be careful. Yes, the move higher has been impressive, but staying realistic is important while speculating in Forex. The move over the 79.0000 has been accomplished with a strong amount of momentum and psychologically speculators may be targeting the 80.0000 mark, but the next run higher may not ignite short-term.

If the 79.7000 Level is Surpassed Traders may Look for 80.0000 Psychologically in the USD/INR

While traders cannot be blamed for believing the 80.0000 is a legitimate goal, being able to time the potential rise could be difficult and costly if the USD/INR doesn’t produce the results wanted fast enough. Realistic targets are important while trading. Looking for technical resistance levels are difficult when record highs are being made, but waiting for slight reversals lower and anticipating a rebound higher which aims for resistance levels accomplished earlier in the day can prove to be worthwhile sometimes. Aiming above the higher marks needs patience and ability to emotionally remain calm.

• Record highs in USD/INR make the search for resistance difficult, but using price reversals lower and then aiming for recent highs is a realistic goal.
• Volatility as the USD/INR traverses new highs should be expected.

The mark of 79.6000 in the short term appears to be proving durable as resistance, but if this mark is toppled speculators could begin to look at the 79.7000 and 79.7500 levels as realistic. The USD/INR is historically a currency pair that delivers a significant amount of volatility with spikes suddenly erupting, particularly when the USD/INR receives its first initial wave of trading during each day. Today’s move higher was accomplished via a strong surge upwards early in the morning.

The USD has been strong across the board in Forex yesterday and today. The USD/INR may continue to see a swirl of activity in the near term as financial houses looks for equilibrium and consider the next moves by the U.S Federal Reserve and its implications for currency pairs. Traders looking to buy the USD/INR cannot be blamed, but stop loss and take profit orders should be used to make sure risk-taking tactics remain practical and do not result in costly mistakes. Record values sometimes lead to violent trading in Forex and the USD/INR may not be immune to this type of behavior.

USD/INR Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 79.6300

Current Support: 79.3900

High Target: 79.9800

Low Target: 79.0300

GS

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The euro was not very happy with the rebound gains last week after steps and comments by the monetary policy officials of the European Central Bank

The exchange rate of the euro currency pair against the dollar EUR/USD rebounded to the level of 1.0600 and then returned to decline in its broader path to the downside to the support level 1.0444. It settled around the level 1.0485 at the beginning of this week’s trading. She confirmed with the recovery of the euro that the clear contrast for the future of monetary policy tightening between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve is still in favor of the strength of the US dollar.

Last week, the US Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate by three times the usual amount for the largest increase since 1994. It could consider another massive increase at its next meeting in July, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said increases by three Quarters of a percentage point would not be common. The Fed has also just started letting some trillions of dollars in bonds it bought during the pandemic off its balance sheet. This should put upward pressure on long-term interest rates which is another way for global central banks to pool previously backed support under the markets to prop up the economy.

The Fed’s moves occur as some disappointing signs are emerging about the economy, even if the labor market remains strong. The latest report released on Friday showed that US industrial production was weaker last month than expected. Other disappointing data, including falling retail spending and declining consumer confidence, have raised concerns that the Fed’s actions could be too aggressive. Jerome Powell will testify before Congress this week about monetary policy, and what he says will surely guide trading. Testimony is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, which could mean more sharp volatility in global financial markets.

In addition to the policy of the European Central, there is the Russian-Ukrainian war and its negative repercussions on the future of economic recovery. As the crisis dragged on, Russia slashed natural gas back to Europe as countries worked to reduce their dependence on Russian supplies amid the war in Ukraine. Friday marks the third day of deep cuts to fuels that support industry and generate electricity in Europe, which also hit Germany and Austria.

This has pushed up already high energy prices and led to record inflation in the European Union. The Russian side informed the state-controlled gas company of Slovakia that it would reduce the flow of gas to the country by 50%. Russian energy giant Gazprom also told Italian gas company Eni that it would supply only 50% of the gas needed on Friday. France no longer receives any natural gas from Russia.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: The return of stability in the price of the euro currency pair EUR/USD below the support level of 1.0500 will support the bears to move further downwards. The support levels at 1.0420, 1.0375 and 1.0290 may be the most important for the bears in the general trend of the bearish currency pair. On the daily chart below, the EUR/USD needs more strong and continuous momentum to get out of this trend and there may be signs of that if it moves towards the 1.0645 and 1.0775 resistance levels, respectively.

Today is an American holiday, and it will affect market liquidity and investors’ desire for adventure. On the same day, there will be statements by European Central Bank Governor Lagarde.

During yesterday’s trading session, the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen tried to recover from the pace of its recent losses with gains to the resistance level 128.90. This is after losses to reach the support level 126.35 and settle around the level of 128.70 at the time of writing the analysis, as the US dollar pairs await the announcement of US job numbers. Returning to our technical analyses, we often mentioned the recommendation to buy the dollar-yen from every descending level.

USD/JPY may take cues from the US non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, along with the major jobs indicators due to be released throughout the week. Analysts expect job growth to slow for May, which could cast doubt on the Fed’s aggressive plans to tighten. However, the higher-than-expected increase in employment may reinforce expectations for a 50 basis point increase from the FOMC at its upcoming meetings. This comes in an effort to control inflation, especially with the rise in crude oil prices once again.

US consumer confidence plummeted in May as Americans’ view of their current and future prospects diminished amid persistent inflation. The Conference Board said the US Consumer Confidence Index fell to a reading of 106.4 in May – a still strong reading – from 108.6 in April.

The Business Research Group’s Current Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and business conditions, also fell in May to 149.6 from 152.9 in April. The expectations index, which is based on consumers’ six-month expectations of income, business, and the labor market, also fell in May to 77.5 from 79 in April. It was above 80 in February and remains a weak spot in the survey.

US President Joe Biden will meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as high inflation continues to share Americans’ profits. The meeting will be the first since Powell renominated Powell to lead the central bank and weeks after the Senate confirmed a second term. For its part, the White House said that the two parties will discuss the state of the US and global economy, especially the four-decade-old high inflation, which was described as “Biden’s top economic priority.”

The Federal Reserve raised its key borrowing rate by half a point in early May, its main anti-inflation mechanism. Multiple price increases are expected this year, with increases of half a point likely.

According to the pair’s technical analysis: The price of the USD/JPY currency pair has breached the descending trend line on the hourly time frame, which indicates that a reversal from the downtrend is in the pipeline. The price is yet to retreat to retest the broken resistance before heading higher. The Fibonacci retracement tool shows where more buyers may be waiting. As the 61.8% level is the closest to the previous trend line and the 100 SMA dynamic support is around 127.25 while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is close to 127.66.

Currently the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to confirm the bearish outlook and that there is still a chance for the selling to resume. However, both moving averages are shifting higher to indicate a return of bullish pressure and a possible bullish crossover. Stochastic is still moving down from an overbought area to indicate that the sellers have the upper hand. The oscillator has plenty of room to move down before it reverses exhaustion among the bears. Similarly, the RSI is shifting lower from the overbought zone to show that downward pressure is starting to rise.

ADA/USD has seen its value nosedive like other major cryptocurrencies in the past handful of days, and speculators who are wagering should remain cautious.

ADA/USD is trading slightly above 41 cents as of this writing.  The widespread carnage in the cryptocurrency markets has created a lack of confidence that is testing the willpower of almost all participants in the digital asset world. The price of Cardano was above 76 cents on the 8^th of May.

As ADA/USD moves lower and strong buyers remain in hiding, technical traders need to look at long term charts to consider potential problems (opportunities for those who want to remain thinking optimistically). One year charts will not do the trick for speculators at this point; five year charts should be gathered and considered.  ADA/USD is now challenging prices seen in early February of 2021, if Cardano’s price stumbles slightly more it will be within January 2021 value levels with the blink of an eye.

As a point of reference to illustrate the speed ADA/USD is moving (downward), I have had to revise the price Cardano is trading in the opening paragraph two times already. If a trader chooses to wager within the cryptocurrency market today they should use entry price orders to make sure their fills meet expectations. Without the use of entry orders a trader may find that they are correct about direction, but the price is far below the expected fill due to the speed of price velocity which exists in the current conditions, which may create the need for other value targets.

Fast conditions are not about to go away.  Yes, potentially there will be reversals upward in the broad cryptocurrency market which can be taken advantage of, but speculators betting on upside action should really consider that this may be described as spitting in the wind. The trend for the time being is not only bearish, but can be described as an avalanche. If ADA/USD breaks below the 40 cents level in the short term, values could potentially fall into the mid 30’s.

Risk taking tactics such as stop loss and take profits should certainly be used by speculators.  The use of leverage should be carefully considered in a conservative way because the price action in ADA/USD, like the broad cryptocurrency market remains dynamic and dangerous. Selling into this storm may be tempting and proven correct, but it will take courage and quick reactions. Good luck.

Cardano Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.43250000

Current Support: 0.40210000

High Target: 0.45850000

Low Target: 0.34960000

With the beginning of this week’s trading, the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen returned to stability above the 130.00 psychological resistance, its highest in 20 years. It gains to the level of 130.22 at the time of writing the analysis, as the US dollar is still stronger than expectations of raising US interest rates. This week we will be watching these expectations. As the US Federal Reserve prepares this week to accelerate its most drastic step in three decades to attack inflation by making borrowing more expensive — to buy a car, a house, a business deal, or a credit card — all of which will double Americans’ financial position. There is pressure and will potentially weaken the US economy.

However, with inflation at a 40-year high, the Fed has come under extraordinary pressure to act aggressively to slow spending and curb price hikes that are overwhelming households and businesses.

After its last rate-setting meeting ends on Wednesday, the Fed will almost certainly announce that it is raising its benchmark short-term interest rate by half a percentage point — the largest rate increase since 2000. The Fed is likely to implement another half-point hike interest rate at its next meeting in June and possibly at the next meeting after that, in July. Economists expect prices to continue to rise in the following months.

Moreover, the Fed is also expected to announce tomorrow, Wednesday, that it will quickly begin to reduce its massive stock of Treasury and mortgage bonds starting in June – a move that will have the effect of further credit tightening. Fed Governor Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve will take these steps largely in secret. No one knows how far the central bank’s short-term interest rate must go to slow the economy and curb inflation. Nor do officials know how far they can reduce the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented $9 trillion balance sheet before they risk destabilizing financial markets.

However, many economists believe that the Fed is already acting too late. Even with inflation rising, the Fed rate is in a range of just 0.25% to 0.5%, a level low enough to spur growth. Adjusted for inflation, the Fed’s key interest rate – which affects many consumer and business loans – is deep in negative territory.

According to the technical analysis of the pair: There is no doubt that the return of the stability of the USD/JPY currency pair around and above the 130.00 psychological resistance will continue to support the strength of the upward trend. It will also warn of a stronger bullish move, and the closest to it are currently the resistance levels 130.85, 131.20 and 132.00, respectively. Forex investors still ignore the arrival of technical indicators towards overbought levels and focus more on the continuation of the factors of the US dollar’s strength, led by the future of raising US interest rates and the clear contrast between the policy of the Federal Reserve and the Japanese Central.

On the downside, and according to the performance on the daily chart, the currency pair needs to break the support 126.90 to change the current trend to the downside.

We expect the lira to decline after retesting the broken descending trend line during the end of last week.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buying or selling deals took place in the past week

Best buy entry points

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.62 . levels
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.86 . levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

The Turkish lira fell against the dollar at the opening of the weekly trading, although trading remained in a narrow range. Investors followed reports on the Turkish government’s tendency to launch a 500-lira banknote, in addition to a 5-lira coin. Reports indicate the government’s inability to keep pace with the rise in inflation, which reached record levels, as it recorded 61 percent, and the decline of the lira, which has lost about half of its value since late last year. The expected steps are a reflection of the functioning of the Justice and Development government, which previously adjusted the price of the lira with the economic recovery that Turkey recorded during the party’s rule during the first ten years of this century.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell slightly against the dollar with the opening of trading, although the pair remained trading within a narrow trading range, which is evident on the chart. The pair breached the descending trend line on the 240-minute time frame, which is shown on the chart. The pair also rose around the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.60 and 14.45 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.68 and 14.75, respectively. We expect the lira to decline after retesting the broken descending trend line during the end of last week. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

Monero has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday as we are currently hovering at the $220 level. Furthermore, we are still sitting just above the 200 Day EMA, so this suggests that we are ready to go higher given enough time, but in the short term we are simply grinding sideways more than anything else.

Now that we are well above the 200 Day EMA, it is worth noting that the market is going to perhaps try to build up a little bit of a base before going higher, but obviously, it needs some type of catalyst to go higher. A little bit of external influence from Bitcoin and Ethereum could be beneficial if they continue to go higher. The market now looks as if it is simply waiting to see what it should do next. The market is most certainly an “altcoin”, and therefore it is further out on the risk spectrum than some of the other coins. If those coins do well, then traders will start to look towards the smaller markets to get involved.

Having said that, we also have the exact opposite effect if everything starts to sell off, Monero will sell off drastically. If we were to break down below the 200 Day EMA, we could get a bit more of a selloff, perhaps reaching down towards the 50 Day EMA. In that scenario, then I would not trust Monero in the short term, but I do recognize that it all comes down to what happens with the crypto markets overall. The Monero market is very small, but it does look as if it is trying to follow Bitcoin to the upside as it had turned around so drastically. The candlestick for the last couple of days has been very neutral, so this tells me that the market is simply waiting and hesitating. This does not bestow confidence, so at this point, I would be very neutral when it comes to this market. Longer-term, if we can break higher then we will go looking towards the $250 level, possibly even the $300 level given enough time. As far shorting is concerned, I do not like that idea, at least not yet as I think there could be a couple of small areas of support and demand underneath.