There is a likelihood that Bitcoin will resume the bullish trend and possibly retest last week’s high at $22,500.

Bullish View

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 22,500.
• Add a stop-loss at 19,000.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish View

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 18,500.
• Add a stop-loss at 22,000.

The BTC/USD pair pulled back but remained in a tight range as investors waited for the upcoming bank earnings season. The pair is hovering at around 20,000, which is slightly below last week’s high of over 22,000.

Earnings and Strong US Dollar

The BTC/USD pair continued to consolidate as it mirrored the performance of other financial assets like stocks. On Monday, the Dow Jones declined by about 170 points while the Nasdaq index fell by 255 points. The closely-watched VIX index rose by over 7%.

This price action is mostly because of the expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve after the strong American economic data. On Friday, numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the country’s economy added over 372k jobs in June this year. This increase was better than what analysts were expecting. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.

Therefore, Bitcoin investors believe that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking interest rates later this month. They have already priced in a 0.75% rate hike.

The next data to watch will be the latest American inflation data that comes out on Wednesday. Analysts believe that inflation remained at elevated levels in June this year. All these explains why the US dollar has risen against most assets, including Bitcoin lately.

The BTC/USD pair has also declined ahead of the upcoming earnings season. Historically, Bitcoin tends to show some volatility as the bank earnings season kicks off. Some of the top banks that will publish their results this week are JP Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo. Investors will watch statements by bank executives on the cryptocurrencies sector.

BTC/USD Forecast

The BTC/USD pair rallied to a high of 22,500 last week. Since then, it has pulled back and is now trading at the lowest level since July 7th. It has managed to move below the key level at 21,914, which was the highest point on June 26th. The pair has dropped below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Stochastic Oscillator has moved to the oversold level.

The pair seems like it has formed a cup and handle pattern. Therefore, there is a likelihood that Bitcoin will resume the bullish trend and possibly retest last week’s high at $22,500. If this happens, it will signal that bulls have prevailed and see it rise to 25,000.

The pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,000.

Bullish View

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 24,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 19,500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Sell the BTC/USD and set a take-profit at 19,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 22,500.

The BTC/USD pair made a bullish breakout last week even as more signs of a hawkish Federal Reserve emerged. Bitcoin rose above the symmetrical triangle pattern and retested the resistance at $22,000 for the first time in weeks. It is trading at 21,284, which is about 22% above the lowest level in June.

Risky Assets Recover

The BTC/USD pair rallied above 22,000 last week as risky assets made some recovery. Bitcoin rose as American equities, including those in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones bounced back. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose for the week while the fear and greed index moved from the fear zone.

Bitcoin rallied even as more signs emerged that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking interest rates in the upcoming meeting. On Wednesday, minutes by the FOMC revealed that most officials expect that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming meetings.

While most economic data from the US have been negative, numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the labor market is doing well. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6% while wages jumped by more than 5% in June.

The next key data to watch will be the important American consumer inflation data. Analysts expect the data to show that the headline CPI jumped to 8.8% in June while core inflation slipped slightly. Still, these numbers will likely have no major impact on the actions of the Federal Reserve.

The BTC/USD pair also bounced back as Celsius continued paying debts it owes to several companies. For example, it paid $440 million to Maker DAO. It also moved about $500 million to FTX, one of the biggest companies in the industry.

The other catalyst will be the upcoming bank earnings. Companies like Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs will publish their earnings.

BTC/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a recovery mode in the past few days. The pair managed to move above the symmetrical triangle that is shown in purple. It then move above the 25-day moving average and is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD has moved above the neutral point.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,000. A drop below the support at 20,000 will invalidate the bullish view.

If we do continue to break down you have plenty of time to get involved in that move, just like you would have plenty of time to ride an uptrend.

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, after initially falling in reaction to the jobs number.
• It is currently hanging about the $104.50 level, putting this market just below the previous uptrend line.
• The previous uptrend line has held as resistance so far, so “market memory” appears to be held at the moment.

If we can break above the previous uptrend line, then it’s possible that the oil market may go looking to reach the 50-day EMA above, which is just below the $110 level.

Breaking above the $110 level opens up the possibility of a move to the $120 level, which might take a bit of effort, but it is most certainly a possibility. On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the lows of the trading session on Friday, then I think we will kick off more selling pressure.

Oil Supply and Demand

Unfortunately for oil traders, there are so many different things moving at the same time that could cause problems in both directions that this is going to remain a very difficult market to get a handle on. The most important thing you can do is limit your position size and keep a cool head. The supply of crude oil is still far below where it normally is because we had just spent the last two years hiding in our homes instead of drilling for crude oil. With that in mind, it looks as if the supply is nowhere near strong enough or demand, but it should also be stated that there is serious concern about demand destruction going forward as it looks like we are heading into a recession. Because of this, the market looks as if it doesn’t really know what to do, but it is worth noting that the biggest candlesticks as of late have all been red.

The 200-day EMA has offered significant support near the $95 level, but if we were to break below there, it’s officially the end of the trend, and we would probably fall quite drastically. Nonetheless, I think you are probably better off waiting to see what happens with this trendline retest than anything else in the meantime. After all, if we do continue to break down you have plenty of time to get involved in that move, just like you would have plenty of time to ride an uptrend.

There is a possibility that the pair will continue falling as bears target last week’s low at 1.0367.

Bearish View

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0370.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0477.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.0467 and a take-profit at 1.0550.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0400.

The EUR/USD pair is struggling after a series of bad economic data from Europe and the ongoing demand for the US dollar. The euro is trading at 1.0425, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.0460.

Strong Dollar Demand

The EUR/USD pair has been struggling recently as investors reflect on the ongoing strength of the US dollar. The dollar index has jumped by double-digits this year as its demand remains at elevated levels.

This is happening as investors price in a recession due to the extremely hawkish Federal Reserve. The bank has already hiked interest rates by 150 basis points this year and hinted that the hikes will continue. Therefore, most analysts believe that a recession is imminent.

The EUR/USD pair has also dropped as worries about the state of the European economy continue. The economy is dealing with a number of challenges. For example, countries like Germany and Spain are dealing with high natural gas prices as Russia continues lowering its deliveries.

As a result, there are concerns about whether European companies will be able to compete with other firms from the US and Asia.

Data published recently have shed light on the current state of the European economy. On Friday, data revealed that the bloc’s consumer inflation surged to the highest level ever recorded. The same trend continued in the producer sector, where the PPI continued climbing.

Meanwhile, the German situation continued worsening. Data by the statistics agency showed that the country made its first monthly trade deficit in three decades. This happened as the volume of exports declined as imports jumped.

The next key data to watch on Tuesday will be the upcoming EU services and composite PMI numbers. The data is expected to show that the PMI remained above 50 even as companies suffered from higher costs of doing business.

EUR/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the pair formed a rising wedge in June this year. It then made a bearish breakout and is currently below the lower side of the wedge pattern. The pair has moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral point.

The pair also formed a small hammer pattern on Friday but the rebound faded at around 1.0475. Therefore, there is a possibility that the pair will continue falling as bears target last week’s low at 1.0367.

The overall outlook for the AUD/USD pair is bearish ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision

Bullish view

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.700.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6900.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 0.6900 and a take-profit at 0.6800.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7000.

The AUD/USD price retreated sharply as the US dollar maintained its bullish trend. It fell to a low of 0.6940, which was the lowest level since May 16th. It has fallen by more than 4% from its highest point this month.

US dollar strength

The AUD/USD pair continued its bearish trend amid the rising worries of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Analysts expect that the Fed will continue with its quantitative tightening (QT) policy and then hike interest rates at a faster pace.

These worries have led to a major crash in key assets. For example, American and Australian stocks crashed hard. The ASX index declined by more than 4% and entered a bear market

Similarly, cryptocurrencies and commodities also continued falling. For example, the closely watched Bloomberg Commodity Index declined by more than 1.8%. This is notable since Australia is one of the biggest commodity exporters globally.

The AUD/USD pair also retreated after China restarted some of its Covid restrictions. Important cities like Beijing and Shanghai announced that they will restart some lockdowns and restrictions after they discovered some more cases.

More lockdowns in China have an impact on the Australian economy since it is the biggest buyer of Australian commodities.

The pair declined after worries of more weakness in Australia and around the world continued. In a statement, the Chief Investment Officer of AustralianSuper warned that the country was heading for a material downturn. The company’s flagship fund is expected to have its first loss in 13 years.

His statement came a week after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hike interest rates by 0.50%. Analysts now expect that the RBA will raise interest rates to 3.1% by end of the year.

AUD/USD signal

The AUD/USD pair continued falling as the US dollar strength continued. It managed to move below the important support at 0.6970, which was the first support of the standard pivot points. It also declined below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index declined to the extreme oversold level of 20.

Therefore, the overall outlook for the pair is bearish ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision. However, the pair will likely have a relief rally as some investors buy the dips. If this happens, the next key point will be at 0.700.

The pair will likely continue falling as bears target the key support at 1.2200. 

Bearish View

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2200.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2400.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2325 and a take-profit at 1.2450.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2300.

The GBP/USD pair declined sharply as odds of a more aggressive Federal Reserve continued. The pair crashed to a low of 1.2263, which was the lowest point since May 16th. It has fallen by over 2.8% below its highest point last week.

Fed and BOE Decisions Ahead

The GBP/USD pair declined after the strong US inflation numbers pushed investors to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the country’s inflation surged to 8.6% in May, the highest level since December 1981. The figure was better than the median estimate of 8.1%. At the same time, core inflation rose on a year-on-year basis but dropped for the fourth straight month on a MoM basis.

This will be a big week for the GBP/USD pair as focus shifts to important economic data from the US and the UK and the FOMC and BOE decisions.

On Monday morning, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest GDP numbers. Analysts believe that the country’s economy remained under pressure in April as consumer inflation continued surging.

The ONS will also publish the latest manufacturing, industrial, and construction output numbers. On Tuesday, the agency will release the latest UK jobs numbers. Analysts believe that the country’s unemployment rate declined to 3.7% to 3.6% in April.

The most important events will be the latest Fed and BOE decisions that are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Analysts believe that the Fed will hike interest rates by 0.50% in its bid to fight inflation. It will also continue with its quantitative tightening (QT) policy.

The BOE is also expected to hike interest rates for the fifth consecutive meeting. The 0.25% hike will push the baseline interest rate to 1.25%.

GBP/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the GBP/USD pair continued its bearish trend after the strong US inflation data. It fell to a low of 1.2263, which was the lowest point since May 16th. As it dropped, it moved below the lower side of the descending channel shown in black. The pair also retreated below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as bears target the key support at 1.2200. This price is about 1.02% below the current level.

There is a likelihood that the pair will continue the bullish trend since it is stuck above the two MAs. If this happens, the next key resistance will be at 0.7300

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 0.7250 and a take-profit at 0.7300.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7200.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish view

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.7100.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.7280.

The AUD/USD pair continued after the surprise interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The pair is trading at 0.7220, which is close to its month-to-date high of 0.7287. It has risen by over 5.66% from its lowest point in May.

RBA rate hike

In 2021, the RBA spent most of the year talking about transitory inflation. At the time, it signaled that it will hike interest rates either in 2023 or 2024. Therefore, the bank caught many analysts by surprise when it reversed its dovish tone in May.

It implemented its first 0.25% rate hike in May. And this week, the RBA surprised investors by hiking interest rates by 0.50%. This was the first time it made a 0.50% hike since 2000. Also, it was the first time that it made a back-to-back rate hike since 2010.

Most importantly, the RBA signaled that it will deliver more rate hikes this year as it continues battling the soaring inflation. Analysts believe that it will push rates to 1.35% in its July meeting. Still, the risk is that an aggressive tightening will lead to a major deterioration of the economy.

For example, if banks fully pass rates to borrowers, homeowners will need to pay $295 extra per month for a $750k mortgage. This could be a big hit to individuals considering that wage growth has been a bit weak this year.

With the RBA done, the next key data to watch will be the upcoming American inflation data that is scheduled on Friday. Analysts expect the data to show that the country’s inflation moderated slightly in May this year.

AUD/USD forecast

The AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend since mid-June because of the strong US dollar. It has risen by more than 5.8% in this period. At the same time, the pair formed an ascending channel pattern that is shown in black. On Tuesday, it had a false breakout after the RBA decision.

The pair has moved slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the MACD is approaching the neutral point. It is slightly below the 50% retracement point.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will continue the bullish trend since it is stuck above the two MAs. If this happens, the next key resistance will be at 0.7300

The pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key support at 1.0750.

Bullish View

• Buy the EUR/USD and set a take-profit at 1.0750.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0600.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0600 and a take-profit at 1.0500.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0700.

The EUR/USD moved sideways after the latest minutes by the Federal Reserve. The pair is trading at 1.0673, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.0750. The next key data to watch will be US pending home sales and GDP numbers.

FOMC Minutes

The FOMC published minutes of this month’s meeting. The minutes showed that members agreed that the bank needs to continue with the 50 basis point hikes in the next few meetings in order to fight inflation. By being this aggressive, officials believe that the bank will be positioned well to assess the effects of policy firming.

Before the minutes, most investors were expecting that the bank will only deliver 50 basis point hikes in the next two meetings and then move to 20 basis points. Also, the officials noted that the bank may need to move above the neutral level of rate that will support the economic growth without causing inflation.

The FOMC minutes came a few hours after pressure mounted on the European Central Bank (ECB) to start normalizing its policies. In a statement, Charles Goodhart, a former official at the BOE warned that  ECB officials face a “very difficult” task ahead to contain inflation.

He spoke in a panel led by ECB’ Chief economist, Philip Lane. Still, there are signs that the ECB has started listening to critics. This week, Christine Lagarde wrote a lengthy blog post in which she made the case of starting rate hikes in the July meeting and then exiting negative rates in September.

The next key data that will have an impact on the EUR/USD will be the upcoming US GDP numbers that will come out in the afternoon session. Since these are the second estimates, their impact on the pair will be limited. The pair will also react to the latest US pending home sales numbers.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair formed a break and retest pattern when it moved to a low of 1.0640 on Wednesday. The pair is now trading at 1.0677, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.0750. It remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

At the same time, it has moved slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair has moved above the neutral level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key support at 1.0750.

The pair will likely resume the bullish trend later on Thursday.

Bullish View

• Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2500.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2300.
• Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 1.2320 and a take-profit at 1.2250.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2420.

The GBP/USD pair pulled back on the back of a stronger US dollar as global risks rose. The pair also declined after the strong inflation data from the United States. It is trading at 1.2388, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.2500.

Strong UK Data

The GBP/USD pair declined even after the strong economic data from the UK. Data published on Tuesday revealed that the country’s labor market is tightening at a relatively faster pace. The unemployment rate declined to a record low while wages held steady.

On Wednesday, data by the ONS revealed that consumer inflation surged to the highest level in over 40 years. The headline CPI rose to 9% as the price of oil and gas surged due to the crisis in Ukraine. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, consumer prices rose by 6.2% on a year-on-year basis.

Therefore, the GBP/USD pair declined because these numbers were lower than what most analysts were expecting. The median estimate for the headline CPI was 9.1%.

Additional data revealed that companies are paying more for their inputs. The PPI input increased to 18.6% while the PPI output rose to 14.0%.

The pair also declined because of the strong US dollar a global risks rose. There are risks about the decision by Finland and Sweden to join Nato. Investors expect that these moves could lead to more geopolitical tensions in the region.

There are also corporate risks after major retailers warned about margins. Walmart, Lowe’s, and Target said that they were seeing elevated inflation risks. As a result, their shares declined by more than 20%. These are notable companies because they provide a feel of the American consumer. The key data to watch today will be the Philadelphia manufacturing index and initial jobless claims.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair rose to a high of 1.5000 and then pulled back. On the four-hour chart, the pair managed to decline below the important support level of 1.2410, which was the highest point on May 9th. It is slightly above the 50-day moving average. A closer look shows that the pair has formed a rounding bottom pattern.

Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bullish trend later on Thursday. If this happens, the next key resistance level to watch will be at 1.22500. A drop below the support at 1.2300 will invalidate the bullish view.

The AUD/USD pair tilted upwards on Monday morning as investors continue focusing on the upcoming Australian election and important economic events.

Bullish view

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.7036.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6850.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 0.6895 and a take-profit at 0.6800.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.700.

The AUD/USD pair tilted upwards on Monday morning as investors continue focusing on the upcoming Australian election and important economic events. It is trading at 0.6940, which is a few points above last week’s low of 0.6832.

Australia election ahead

The biggest catalyst for the AUD/USD pair is the upcoming Australian election in which Scott Morrison is dueling with Anthony Albanese. The election will happen in the coming weekend and analysts believe that the outcome will be relatively close. The most recent polls have Albanese lading although the situation could change this week.

The pair also tilted upwards after data from China showed the impact of the current lockdowns to the economy. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s retail sales and industrial production were a bit weak in April. This happened as Beijing announced a series of lockdowns in key cities.

The next key item to watch will be the upcoming minutes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that will come out on Tuesday morning. These minutes will provide a clear picture about the deliberations that the bank’s officials had when they decided to hike interest rates by 0.25%. It was its first rate increase in about 11 years. Analysts will be looking at more signs about the next few meetings.

Additionally, the AUD/USD will react to the upcoming jobs numbers from Australia. The data, which will come out on Thursday, are expected to show that the country’s unemployment rate continued falling as the economic recovery continued.

On the other hand, from the United States, investors will be focusing on the upcoming retail sales numbers that are scheduled for Tuesday. As in March, expectations are that sales declined slightly because of the rising prices. The other important data will be US building permits, housing starts, and exisrting home sales.

AUD/USD forecast

On the 4H chart, the AUD/USD pair formed a small hammer pattern on Thursday last week. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bullish sign. The pair has moved slightly above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued rising.

Therefore, while the overall trend is bearish, there is a high possibility that it will keep rising as bulls target the key resistance at 0.7165. This was a notable level since it was the lowest point on May 2nd.