We are about to set up for a big move.

The Monero market strengthened on Wednesday to break above the $200 level. The 200-day EMA is sitting just above, and it should offer a lot of resistance. At this point, the market is going to run into a little bit of trouble, so it would not be surprising at all to see a bit of a pullback.It could very well drop back down to the $180 level rather quickly. We are extended at this point, so we need to keep in mind that a pullback does make sense. Furthermore, it’s also worth looking at the market structure to make some decisions as well.

There is a lot of noise between here and $220, and it is set up as a perfect shorting opportunity. We do not have an exhaustion candle to jump on, so I may drill down to a shorter time frame. Monero has bucked the trend for most crypto markets, but in general, it should be noted that crypto is a complete disaster at this moment. If the US dollar starts to pick up strength, then it’s possible that we may see selling pressure based on that alone. Furthermore, if Bitcoin and other larger markets get sold into, Monero will more likely than not fall as well.

Based on Fibonacci studies, the idea is that if we exhaust momentum in this general vicinity, we could very well test the lows again. I think that is all but given if the Bitcoin market breaks down below $28,000, where we have been hanging on by a thread. Breaking down below there then will put a lot of fear into the crypto markets, and the smaller coins will get hurt.

On the other hand, if the Monero market breaks above the $225 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $290 level as a target. This would accompany Bitcoin rallying, as well as Ethereum in my estimation. As Monero has been so strong against the dollar over the last week or so, it’s also worth noting that it seems to be behaving much like the Australian dollar, for whatever that is worth. At this point, we are at a major inflection junction. That being said, we are about to set up for a big move.

The long-term bearish trend remains likely to resume.

My EUR/USD signal on 23^rd March was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level I had identified at $1.0956.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0937, $1.0956, $1.0985, or $1.1025.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Idea

• Long entry immediately upon the next touch of $1.0710.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote on the 23^rd of March that we were seeing a weakly bullish short-term consolidation above the support level at $1.1012, but it was far from clear what direction the price would take over the day. I thought that a long scalp trade between $1.1000 and $1.1012 might be a good opportunity, but this did not set up.

Over the past couple of weeks, we have continued to see typically deep bullish retracements within a long-term bearish trend which eventually keep reasserting itself. If the price can make a daily (New York) close below $1.0854, it will be making a new bearish breakdown to multi-month lows which would be a bearish sign.

Over the shorter term, we see a bullish rounding near $1.0900 which is pushing the price back up towards the nearby resistance levels, of which there are several, in a bullish retracement. The question is how far this retracement will run.

I think the best approach here today will be to look for a new short trade entry from a convincing reversal on the hourly time frame off any of the nearby resistance levels identified above. I do not want to take any long trades today, although today could be an up day.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the EUR or the USD.