Our expectations indicate the continuation of the index’s rise during its upcoming trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index continued to rise during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains for the third consecutive day, by 1.27%. It added about 424.38 points, and settled at the end of trading at the level of 33,761.06. This came after rising during Thursday’s trading by 0.08%. Last week, the index advanced by 2.92%.

Preliminary results for August showed that the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose to 55.1 from 51.5 in July, market expectations were for a rise to 52.5, and the survey showed that the expected inflation rate for next year fell to 5%, the lowest level since February February, as energy prices continued to fall.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said her main issue for the FOMC meeting in September was a 50 basis point increase in the federal funds rate and was open about a big raise.

There is now a close to 56% chance of a 50bp rate hike on September 21st, while 45% of market participants are pricing in a 75bp hike.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US import prices fell 1.4% in July after advancing in June, more than economists had estimated for a 0.9% decline.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the index continues to rise, affected by its exit from the range of a descending corrective price channel that limited its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily), supported by the influx of positive signals on the relative strength indicators, despite it reaching overbought areas, as the index is benefiting from the continuous positive pressure of its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations indicate the continuation of the index’s rise during its upcoming trading, especially throughout its stability at the highest level of 33,240, to target the first resistance levels at 34,117.75.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index returned during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in its last sessions by 1.63%, to add about 535.10 points to it. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 33,309.52, after its decline during Tuesday’s trading by -0.18%.

The Dow closed its best day in three weeks after the core consumer price index for July showed inflation slowing, in large part due to lower energy prices, possibly easing the burden on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in July, compared to a gain of 1.3% the previous month, according to the Labor Department. Inflation in the 12 months to July slowed to 8.5% from a 41-year high of 9.1% in June.

A closely watched core inflation measure that strips out the more volatile food and energy prices rose 0.3% in July, a slower pace than the 0.7% increase the previous month. While the 12-month rate remained flat at 5.9%.

The Federal Reserve will look at the data ahead of its September 20-21 monetary policy meeting when it is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate again.

After the release of inflation data for July, Fed fund futures now offer higher odds of a 50bps rate hike than the Fed in September, a dramatic turnaround than it was just a day ago.

Dow Jones Technical Forecast

Technically, the index succeeded in its recent rise in confirming the breach of the ceiling of that descending corrective price channel that was limiting its previous trading in the short term. This is amid the continuation of positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. The recent rise attacks the important resistance level 33,240 which is resistance that we had referred to in our previous reports. This is especially with the re-emergence of the positive crossover with the relative strength indicators, after the index tried to drain its overbought, which was clear in the past.

Therefore, our expectations indicate more rise for the index during its upcoming trading, especially in the event that it breaches the resistance level 33,240, to target the resistance level 34,118 immediately.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve gains in its last sessions by 1.29%. It added about 416.33 points and to settle at the end of trading at the level of 32,812.501, after it declined during Tuesday’s trading by -0.23%.

After falling on Tuesday, stocks rose back into trading on Wednesday as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taiwan and China did not take any immediate military action.

Better-than-expected economic data released on Wednesday also helped stocks rally. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 in July from 55.3 in June. Analysts polled on FactSet had expected a reading of around 53.5.

Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC on Wednesday that he does not believe the US has entered a recession, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin on Wednesday joined policymakers saying the US central bank is committed to setting inflation. under control and brought him back to his 2% target.

Investors are now looking to Friday’s jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to see if the labor market slumped in July. After the summary of job creation and labor turnover released on Tuesday by the BLS showed that 10.7 million jobs were added in June, the lowest level since September of 2021. This may be a sign that the hot labor market is declining.

Dow Jones Index Outlook

Technically, the index rose in its last sessions, supported by the continuation of its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. The dominant trend remains the corrective bearish trend in the short term along a slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. The start of the influx of negative signals Relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought areas.

Therefore, we still expect the index to return to decline during its upcoming trading, as long as the pivotal resistance level 33,240 remains intact, to target the first support levels at 31,885.

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The NZD/USD remains within eyesight of long term depths, but a slight reversal higher in trading today has given the Forex pair some short term positive vigor.

As of this writing the NZD/USD is trading near the 0.62260 mark, which is actually a successful reversal higher above the lower values seen before going into the weekend.  A ratio of nearly 0.61465 was seen on Friday, which tested values challenged in May of 2020. However, the NZD/USD has also been within the grasp of a rather steady and incremental bearish trend when looking at long term charts. A high of approximately 0.74765 was touched momentarily in February of 2021.

Technical traders would be right to say the direction of the NZD/USD hasn’t been a simple speculative road to take advantage.  While the price action has been downwards, it has been achieved with a fairly steady diet of choppy conditions. This underscores the necessity of making sure risk taking tactics when pursuing the NZD/USD are locked into place. And the rather choppy conditions as long term lows are being touched also raise the question about if and when the weak New Zealand dollar will begin to establish a real change of direction.

The adage the trend is your friend in Forex is apt and often true. The USD has proven a powerful source of energy the past eight months against many of the major currencies as it has generated buying because of the steady rise of interest rates from the U.S Federal Reserve. Traders may be asking if additional hikes from the U.S central bank have already been digested into the NZD/USD.

While the NZD/USD has gained some momentum today from short term reversals higher, it should also be remembered that U.S is on a full banking holiday today because of Independence Day celebrations.  The move higher this morning may not be facing as much resistance as usual because of the lack of U.S financial institutions being involved within Forex today.

If the lack of institutional trading proves to be the case, traders may have a chance to speculate on potential reversals lower developing again. If the NZD/USD reaches technical resistance seen on the 29^th and 30^th of June near the 0.62540 vicinity it may prove to be an interesting place to ignite selling wagers for those who believe downside price action is not finished.

Near term the NZD/USD should be monitored and treated carefully because of a lack of volume, which may be occurring due to the absence of the Americans.  Upon their return tomorrow, Tuesday could prove to be rather volatile and speculators are urged to make sure risk management is in place. While higher levels may be demonstrated short term, tomorrow’s price action and Wednesday’s will deliver real clues about existing sentiment.

NZD/USD Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 0.62350

Current Support: 0.62003

High Target: 0.62609

Low Target: 0.61459

We expect the price to rise from the current levels or the closest levels of support.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

The buy trade of the recommendation was activated on Thursday and reached the stop loss point.

The sell trade of Wednesday’s recommendation was activated and the target was fully reached.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from levels 17.45
• Set a stop loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 15.70
• The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 15.48.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 16.40

The lira rose strongly during trading on Friday, to complement its strong rise against the dollar, with the markets returning to trading on Monday. The lira’s gains expanded after government measures issued last Friday regarding lending to companies that have income in hard currency. The Turkish government decided to stop loans to companies with foreign liquidity of approximately 980,000 dollars, or the equivalent of 15 million liras. This is except for specific conditions, including the purchase of euros or investment in protected deposit accounts in foreign currencies. The lira, which recorded strong losses during the second quarter of this year, woke up after promises from President Erdogan of further cuts in interest rates. The country’s inflation rate also rose to 73.5 percent during the month of May, causing the Turkish currency to lose about 20 percent of its value this year after losing 40 percent of its value last year. It is noteworthy that this measure has already had a strong impact in contrast to a number of measures taken by the Turkish Central Bank and the Ministry of the Treasury in the country

On the technical front, the Turkish lira jumped against the US dollar, as it broke the narrow trading range between 17.19 and 17.33 lira by a large margin. The pair reverses the general upward trend, with the pair trading support levels that are concentrated at 15.70 and 15.00, respectively. The pair also turned lower than the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame, as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating a decline in the medium term. The pair bounced from the moving average 50 on the daily time frame. At the same time, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.40 and 17.10, respectively. The pair is trading at strong support levels represented by the 50 Fibonacci levels on the ascending wave that starts from 03-05-2022 until the top recorded on 06-21-2022. We expect the price to rise from the current levels or the closest levels of support shown through the recommendation numbers. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially if the pair closed above the 16.40 resistance levels. 

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

None of the buy or sell trades of yesterday’s recommendations were activated

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 17.11 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels 17.26.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 16.40.

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 16.33 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 16.22.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 16.60

The Turkish lira recorded slight changes during early trading this morning, meanwhile, the state-owned Turkish Petroleum Pipelines Company (Botas), crude oil and natural gas pipelines and trade, on Wednesday, announced an increase in natural gas prices by 10 percent to 40 percent for industrial production, while the price of homes will be raised by 30%. The increase in the price of natural gas used in industry will be 10% for those who use more than 300,000 cubic meters and 40% for those who consume more than that amount. At the same time, Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) raised electricity prices by 15% to 25%, according to the statement published in the Official Gazette. Global changes in oil and gas prices significantly affect the Turkish economy, as it is almost completely dependent on foreign energy imports. This raised inflation levels to record levels that contributed to pressure on the Turkish lira

On the technical front, without major changes from yesterday, the Turkish lira stabilized against the dollar, which recorded slight movements during today’s trading. The lira traded around the main resistance levels at 16.40. The pair also maintained its trading above the top of the bullish trend shown on the chart, at the same time, the pair continued trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 16.00 and 15.85 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 16.39 and 17.11. We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially if the pair closed above the 16.40 resistance levels. Each pullback on the pair represents an opportunity to buy back. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially if the pair closed above the resistance levels of 14.91.

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%

None of the buy or sell trades of the recommendation were activated yesterday

Best entry points buy

• Entering a long position with a pending order from 14.68 levels
• Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support level 14.46.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 14.85.

Best selling entry points

• Entering a short position with a pending order from 14.99 levels
• The best points for setting the stop loss are closing the highest levels of 14.98.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 75 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 14.40

The Turkish lira swallowed up yesterday’s gains, as the lira rose after the interest rate decision in the United States of America, which rose 50 basis points. All financial assets benefited from the dollar’s decline after the interest rate decision as the Fed’s decision was priced earlier. During today’s trading, the lira fell after the Turkish Statistical Institute revealed in a report that annual inflation in Turkey rose by 69.97% in April. This number represents an increase from March when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 61.14% year over year. The biggest jump was recorded in transportation prices, with prices jumping insanely by 105.86% year on year, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages with 89.10%. The smallest inflation rate was observed in telecoms at 18.71%. The Consumer Price Index increased by 7.25% compared to the previous month.

On the technical front, the Turkish lira fell slightly against the dollar during today’s trading, as the lira swallowed up yesterday’s gains. In general, the lira is still trading within a limited trading range. The pair also rose above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame. The pair is trading the highest support levels that are concentrated at 14.75 and 14.69 levels, respectively. On the other hand, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 14.90 and 14.99. We expect the lira to continue to decline, especially if the pair closed above the resistance levels of 14.91. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

All things been equal, I think we pullback and then find buyers at a slightly higher level than we did last time.

Gold markets rallied quite significantly during the trading session on Thursday as yields in America fell. That being said, they were due for a bit of a pullback so it does make sense that gold gets a bit of a boost. Whether or not this has legs is a completely different question, because we are in an area where we have seen quite a bit of noisy behavior previously. The 200 day EMA sits just above, so that of course will attract quite a bit of attention in and of itself.

If we were to break above the 200 day EMA, then I might be convinced that we could continue to rally, but I think we are more likely than not to see a lot of back and forth momentum, thereby trying to build a longer-term base. Building a base takes a while, so you should keep in the back of your mind that even if this does end up being very bullish for gold, it may take a while for it to really take off. After all, there has been a lot of selling as of late, and therefore there is quite a bit of work to do by those who would be bullish.

Underneath, the $1800 level looks to be offering support, and thereby gives the market a bit of a reference point. As long as we can stay above $1800, we still have the possibility of a “buy the dips mentality”, but that would be on short-term charts until the market proved itself. The 10 year yield continues to be something you need to watch quite closely, because it has an inverse correlation to this market. As yields go up, gold goes down and vice versa.

If we do clear the 200 day EMA, then it is likely that a lot of buyers will jump in and try to drive gold to the $2000 level over the longer term. It obviously would have a lot of work to do to get there, and in the environment that we find ourselves in currently, it would not be surprising at all to see nothing but chop being back and forth, which is the market’s way of punishing everyone at the same time. All things been equal, I think we pullback and then find buyers at a slightly higher level than we did last time.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) rose in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 2.59%, to settle at the price of $7,750 per million British thermal units. This is after falling slightly in trading on Friday and in a volatile session by It reached -0.46%. Over the past week, natural gas decreased by -3.84%.

Shockingly weak data from China confirmed the massive damage the lockdown is doing to the world’s second-largest economy. China’s retail sales for April fell 11.1% year-on-year, nearly double the autumn forecast, while industrial production fell 2.9% when it was Analysts are looking for a slight increase.

Monday’s data overshadowed the news that Shanghai aims to reopen widely and allow normal life to resume from June 1.

China’s central bank also disappointed those hoping for an interest rate cut, although on Sunday Beijing allowed an additional cut in mortgage rates for some home buyers.

Meanwhile, gas production in key regions of the United States has slowed this year, in part because of insufficient pipeline capacity. Bad weather also reduced production and increased demand. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions caused a scramble for US LNG exports, US LNG plants consumed 15% of domestic production in mid-March.

Increased demand from Europe, which is trying to get rid of Russian energy supplies, has led analysts to expect prices to remain high.

Technically, the main bullish trend dominates in the medium and short term, with the continuation of positive support for its trades above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. In addition, we notice the start of positive signals on the relative strength indicators, after they reached oversold areas, as shown in the attached chart. for a period of time (daily).

Therefore, we expect natural gas to rise during its upcoming trading, as long as its stability is above the level of 7.368, to target the first resistance levels at 8.054, in preparation for attacking it.

Gold futures ended the last trading week with a rise around the level of $ 1892 an ounce. The lowest price for gold was after raising the US interest rate to the level of $ 1851 an ounce.

The highest price of gold during the past week was $ 1910 an ounce, gold prices recorded a weekly loss. Despite recent sharp losses, gold prices rebounded after the Federal Reserve confirmed that it will not raise US interest rates by more than 50 basis points at each policy meeting.

Gold prices are still down 0.74% over the past week, trimming their YTD gains to less than 3%.

In the same way, prices of silver, the sister commodity to gold, struggled to maintain its momentum. Silver futures fell to $22.37 an ounce. The price of the white metal recorded a weekly decrease of 1.82%, adding to its decrease since the beginning of the year 2022 to date by 4.22%.

Precious metals faced sharp losses ahead of this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, expecting Eccles building to be more robust in terms of interest rates. However, the institution emphasized that it will not press anything beyond 50 basis points during each FOMC meeting this year. The gold market is generally sensitive to the high interest rate environment as it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

This has led some market analysts to believe that gold prices are concerned with real interest rates that take inflation into account. Therefore, while the fed funds rate is now in the range of 0.75% and 1%, real rates are still in the subzero zone due to massive inflation.

Most US Treasuries markets were inflated by the end of last week, with the 10-year yield rising 7.4 basis points to 3.14%. One-year bond yields fell 2.3 basis points to 2.011%, while 30-year yields increased 7.7 basis points to 3.238%.

The US currency ended last week’s trading with a slight decrease, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) decreased by 0.09% to 103.66, from its opening at 103.56. Overall, the DXY US dollar index recorded a weekly gain of 0.7%, which increased the rise since the beginning of the year 2022 to date to more than 8%. In general, a stronger profit is bad for dollar-priced commodities because it makes them more expensive to buy for foreign investors.

In other metals markets, copper futures fell to $4.2485 a pound. Platinum futures fell to $947.40 an ounce. Palladium futures fell to $2,032.00 an ounce.

On the economic side, the XAU/USD gold price is trading influenced by the results of the US economic data, as the US jobs data for April outperformed the expected number of jobs at 391 thousand with a higher statistic at 428 thousand. However, the country’s unemployment rate failed to fall to the expected level of 3.5%, remaining at 3.6%. On the other hand, average hourly wage growth for the month was unchanged (monthly) at 0.3%, missing the median forecast of 0.4% while growth (on an annual basis) matched the estimate of 5.5%. Earlier in the week, the US ADP’s employment change for the month of April also came in below 395K with the number of jobs at 247K.

According to the technical analysis of gold prices: in the long term and according to the performance of the hourly chart, it appears that the price of XAU/USD is trading within the formation of a descending channel. This indicates a slight short-term bullish momentum in the market sentiment. Therefore, the bulls – the bulls – will look to maintain short-term control over the price of gold by targeting profits at around $1,896 or higher at $1,909 an ounce. On the other hand, the bears will target short-term profits at around $1,868, or lower at $1,856.

In the long term, and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the yellow metal is about to complete the formation of the bearish reversal XABCD pattern. This indicates an attempt by the bears to control the price of gold in a highly volatile market. Therefore, they will target downside earnings around $1,827, or lower at $1,781. On the other hand, the bulls will target potential rebound profits at around $1,934 or higher at $1,980.